Game 78 Rangers (Eovaldi) Vs Yankees (Cole) 1:35 PM

From RAB thoughts:

C.J. asks: Going into Tuesday's game, the Yankees have a .262 BABIP, which is worst in the league. I'm wondering if this means we can expect some regression to the mean, or if the Yankees have earned this BABIP based on poor contact quality and a lack of team speed. Anecdotally, they don't seem to hit many line drives.

I’ve had this on my list of things to write about for a few weeks. Offensively, the Yankees have the lowest BABIP on ground balls in baseball, and they’re toward the bottom of the league on line drives and fly balls despite being average or better in exit velocity on each (say what you want about the Yankees, but they don’t lack the ability to hit the ball hard). Here are the numbers:


Ground balls: .198 BABIP (30th, MLB average: .242)

Fly balls: .104 BABIP (25th, MLB average: .119)

Line drives: .687 BABIP (20th, MLB average: .700)

The Yankees have a 42.3% ground ball rate this season, which is almost exactly league average (42.5%), though they hit fewer line drives than average (18.5% vs. 20.2%) and more fly balls (39.2% vs. 37.3%). The two percentage point difference between the Yankees and the league average is significant on a team level. Fewer line drives and more fly balls would certainly help explain the low team BABIP.

The Brewers are the next worst on ground balls with a .205 BABIP and only four other teams are under a .220 BABIP. I mean, there’s a 44-point gap between the Yankees and the league average on ground balls. 44 points! The Yankees are a very slow team overall, so that’s part of it, but that alone can’t possibly explain the 44-point gap, can it? Twenty Yankees have hit a ground ball this season and only six have at least a league average BABIP on grounders:

1. Greg Allen: .333 BABIP (on three ground balls)
2. Aaron Judge: .294 BABIP (because he hits the ball so hard)
3. Kyle Higashioka: .281 BABIP (huh)
4. Harrison Bader: .276 BABIP (fast)
5. Isiah Kiner-Falefa: .250 BABIP (fast)
6. Gleyber Torres: .244 BABIP

Anthony Volpe is speedy and runs everything out, yet he has a .186 BABIP on ground balls. Ditto Oswaldo Cabrera. He has a .129 BABIP (!) on ground balls because he rolls over on so many weak grounders to second base. Giancarlo Stanton (.161), Anthony Rizzo (.203), Jose Trevino (.135) … okay, I understand why have low BABIPs on ground balls. They don’t run well. But everyone else? Why has an entire team so bad for so long at turning ground balls into hits?

A year ago the Yankees had a .231 BABIP on grounders against a .235 league average, and that was with the shift. The shift went away, the league BABIP on ground balls shot up, and yet the Yankees are somehow on pace for the lowest BABIP on grounders in a 162-game season since 2003, when bunts were more prevalent and dragged down BABIP. What the hell?

It’s possible some positive regression is coming and the Yankees will finish the season with, say, a .220 BABIP on ground balls. A few more line drives would help the team BABIP as well, though the Yankees don’t have many line drive hitters. Their guys typically aim to get the ball high in the air and let their natural power take it a long way. We’re almost halfway into the season. This just might be who the Yankees are given the way they hit the ball.