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Post by rizzuto on Dec 22, 2023 15:01:13 GMT -5
I really didn’t want to contemplate a Plan B for the Yankees’ pursuit of Yamamoto, but here we are. The short answer to the luxury tax question: yes, the Yankees should absolutely be willing to go over the last luxury tax tier. They have a nearly-shut window with this core of players, and after the acquisition of 2 outfielders on one-year deals, they have to keep spending to make an elite roster. The Yankees have the money to spend well in excess of the final luxury tax threshold and still make a profit that would make even the most ardent capitalist blush. I’ve officially hit the point where I’m sick of hearing about the luxury tax threshold. If the player makes sense, the Yankees should spend. As for Plan B: I think we’re about to witness an explosion of wheeling and dealing. At least 6 teams were very seriously involved in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, and I expect that most of those teams will be looking for good starting pitching to fill out their rosters. I don’t view Yamamoto’s contract in a context that links it to the contracts the other good starters on the market (namely Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell). Neither of those guys were going to sign before Yamamoto signed his deal, as any agent worth his/her salt would want to really understand what kind of budget their prospective teams are working with, but by the same token, no one thinks Monty or Snell are in the same category as Yamamoto as a pitcher. I don’t think their deals will be appreciably different in a post-Yamamoto landscape, but maybe their agents are smarter than I am. The big question is how the Yankees handle their starting rotation. I think that it’s pretty clear that the Yankees need more than one starting pitcher this off-season. The potential exists that Nestor or Rodon can return to form next season and be appropriate Robins to Cole’s Batman. In fact, I’d bet pretty hard that at least one of the two gets back to being an excellent #2 for 160-ish innings. However, the Yankees need good innings to fill beyond that, and getting someone who they can pencil in for 170+ innings is paramount. The key debate among Yankee fans right now is the relative merits of a trade versus a free agent signing. Let’s have some fun with my favorite exercise: Player A: 94 GS, 3.48 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.6 K/BB Player B: 93 GS, 2.94 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 4.48 K/BB As you can see, no fancy stats here, just the bottom line. The above are each player’ statistics from 2021-2023. They have made a nearly identical number of starts. Both have been well above league average performance, though Player B has been an order of magnitude better in every aspect. The choice appears easy. However, what if I told you that each of the above statistical measures backed up for Player B in every year of this evaluation? What if you saw that Player B had his walk rate, strikeout rate, and run prevention statistics degrade in each year of this evaluation, while Player A was stable, or slightly better year-over-year? Most of us would agree that knowing the above, the two pitchers are very close in terms of bottom-line performance, at least as far as realistic expectations moving forward. Player A is Jordan Montgomery. Player B is Corbin Burnes. Monty can be acquired for cash. Burnes will require that the Yankees further gut their upper-minors and young MLB depth. Don’t get me wrong, I really like Corbin Burnes in a vacuum, but when compared to Monty, I’m not sure it’s worth emptying the farm for 1 year of Burnes. Let’s also dispel one very common misconception while we’re here. The common media narrative tells us that Monty was traded by the Yankees, and the Cardinals immediately changed his pitch mix to unlock a better pitcher. It’s a fun narrative! Really compelling stuff…except it doesn’t pass the sniff test. Monty did increase his sinker usage over the last couple of years, but it wasn’t at the expense of his off-speed pitches or breaking balls, generally. Monty drastically decreased his cutter usage and modestly dropped his 4-seam usage. The narrative that Monty used an anti-fastball approach with the Yankees is absolutely false, and resolutely disproven by the above chart. If we look at individual pitches, Monty changes his mix within the 3 primary groups constantly. In a previous generation, we’d call him a crafty lefty, and that’s what crafty lefties do over time: they constantly change. However, Monty's general pitch mix has largely remained the same since Monty returned from TJS. Montgomery is as consistent a starting pitcher as we know in modern baseball. I have maintained since he was a prospect that he had all the makings of a good #3 starter. Prior to his initial trade from the Yankees, most people disagreed, but have since seen the light. The word is that Monty is very open to a return to the Yankees, and I think it makes a lot of sense. I think the Yankees should bring Monty home; he’s a good pitcher, and all reports have indicated that he was very popular in the clubhouse. Bringing back Monty is step 1. Step 2 is to add depth. I think the Yankees should be looking to get Clarke Schmidt back into the bullpen in the Mike King role, where I think he’s best suited. As a 1-3 inning pitcher (and a guy who can make a spot start on occasion), I think Schmidt will thrive and be more valuable than he is as a replaceable 5th starter. All of you will hate me for this, but I’d go grab Frankie Montas. Player Development staff down in Tampa raved about Montas’ commitment to mentoring the young guys down there, and his rehab starts showed that the stuff that makes Montas a tantalizing talent remains. Can he pitch more than 160 innings in 2024? I’m not sure, but I’m skeptical of the guys remaining on the trade market as well. I’d sign Montas to a 1-year “prove-it” deal, let him show us the guy that posted a 3.37 ERA in 180+ innings in 2021, and wait to see what shakes free at the trade deadline. Beyond that, I think that the Yankees need to go out and acquire a premium arm or two for the bullpen. Go sign Jordan Hicks, and let all of the other good bullpen arms the Yankees have already slot in beneath him. I think the bullpen has the chance to be really good, but supplementing it with a big-time fireballer would solidify the bullpen’s spot as a top-5 bullpen in baseball. Luis Gil should return this year, and is well-suited to be a premium bullpen arm. Two starting pitchers and a bullpen arm will almost certainly cost less than Yamamoto and a bullpen arm would have, but I actually think the Yankees can still make a well-rounded, championship-caliber pitching staff even without Yamamoto. www.startspreadingthenews.blog/post/sstn-mailbag-plan-b-after-yamamotoGreat post, and I wholeheartedly agree. In fact, letting Monty go - a homegrown lefty - was a travesty. Many of those discussions are within the thread history of this board, and that was prior to his throwing a single pitch with the Cardinals, much less the Rangers. One thing is certain, Monty can handle pitching in New York and in big games in the playoffs, no matter what Cashman was thinking or not thinking at the time. And, as you stated, it will only cost money rather than prospects. Also, perhaps to your surprise, I have maintained that Frankie Montas would be a good one-year prove-it signing, if for nothing else than he has a solid out-pitch in the splitter that could work in the bullpen quite well, even if he crashes and burns as a starter. If he is healthy, he could eat up innings as a starter in the four or five slot. The Yankees definitely need another wipe-out reliever in the bullpen. Last season, I wanted the Yankees to put Schmidt in the bullpen, but he showed me something down the stretch. If he can learn to pitch more effectively inside, he is a bonafide starter. He definitely gained much needed experience last season as a regular starter, so we may see him take another step forward, but he has got to pitch inside or he belongs in the bullpen, where he could thrive with an uptick in velocity and a three pitch mix. Also, he has to get that curveball back to being an out pitch. He lost command of it last season for some reason. Luis Gil has a ton of potential, as he showed when he was pulled up from double AA in what seems like an eternity ago. |
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Post by inger on Dec 22, 2023 15:43:08 GMT -5
I really didn’t want to contemplate a Plan B for the Yankees’ pursuit of Yamamoto, but here we are. The short answer to the luxury tax question: yes, the Yankees should absolutely be willing to go over the last luxury tax tier. They have a nearly-shut window with this core of players, and after the acquisition of 2 outfielders on one-year deals, they have to keep spending to make an elite roster. The Yankees have the money to spend well in excess of the final luxury tax threshold and still make a profit that would make even the most ardent capitalist blush. I’ve officially hit the point where I’m sick of hearing about the luxury tax threshold. If the player makes sense, the Yankees should spend. As for Plan B: I think we’re about to witness an explosion of wheeling and dealing. At least 6 teams were very seriously involved in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, and I expect that most of those teams will be looking for good starting pitching to fill out their rosters. I don’t view Yamamoto’s contract in a context that links it to the contracts the other good starters on the market (namely Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell). Neither of those guys were going to sign before Yamamoto signed his deal, as any agent worth his/her salt would want to really understand what kind of budget their prospective teams are working with, but by the same token, no one thinks Monty or Snell are in the same category as Yamamoto as a pitcher. I don’t think their deals will be appreciably different in a post-Yamamoto landscape, but maybe their agents are smarter than I am. The big question is how the Yankees handle their starting rotation. I think that it’s pretty clear that the Yankees need more than one starting pitcher this off-season. The potential exists that Nestor or Rodon can return to form next season and be appropriate Robins to Cole’s Batman. In fact, I’d bet pretty hard that at least one of the two gets back to being an excellent #2 for 160-ish innings. However, the Yankees need good innings to fill beyond that, and getting someone who they can pencil in for 170+ innings is paramount. The key debate among Yankee fans right now is the relative merits of a trade versus a free agent signing. Let’s have some fun with my favorite exercise: Player A: 94 GS, 3.48 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.6 K/BB Player B: 93 GS, 2.94 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 4.48 K/BB As you can see, no fancy stats here, just the bottom line. The above are each player’ statistics from 2021-2023. They have made a nearly identical number of starts. Both have been well above league average performance, though Player B has been an order of magnitude better in every aspect. The choice appears easy. However, what if I told you that each of the above statistical measures backed up for Player B in every year of this evaluation? What if you saw that Player B had his walk rate, strikeout rate, and run prevention statistics degrade in each year of this evaluation, while Player A was stable, or slightly better year-over-year? Most of us would agree that knowing the above, the two pitchers are very close in terms of bottom-line performance, at least as far as realistic expectations moving forward. Player A is Jordan Montgomery. Player B is Corbin Burnes. Monty can be acquired for cash. Burnes will require that the Yankees further gut their upper-minors and young MLB depth. Don’t get me wrong, I really like Corbin Burnes in a vacuum, but when compared to Monty, I’m not sure it’s worth emptying the farm for 1 year of Burnes. Let’s also dispel one very common misconception while we’re here. The common media narrative tells us that Monty was traded by the Yankees, and the Cardinals immediately changed his pitch mix to unlock a better pitcher. It’s a fun narrative! Really compelling stuff…except it doesn’t pass the sniff test. Monty did increase his sinker usage over the last couple of years, but it wasn’t at the expense of his off-speed pitches or breaking balls, generally. Monty drastically decreased his cutter usage and modestly dropped his 4-seam usage. The narrative that Monty used an anti-fastball approach with the Yankees is absolutely false, and resolutely disproven by the above chart. If we look at individual pitches, Monty changes his mix within the 3 primary groups constantly. In a previous generation, we’d call him a crafty lefty, and that’s what crafty lefties do over time: they constantly change. However, Monty's general pitch mix has largely remained the same since Monty returned from TJS. Montgomery is as consistent a starting pitcher as we know in modern baseball. I have maintained since he was a prospect that he had all the makings of a good #3 starter. Prior to his initial trade from the Yankees, most people disagreed, but have since seen the light. The word is that Monty is very open to a return to the Yankees, and I think it makes a lot of sense. I think the Yankees should bring Monty home; he’s a good pitcher, and all reports have indicated that he was very popular in the clubhouse. Bringing back Monty is step 1. Step 2 is to add depth. I think the Yankees should be looking to get Clarke Schmidt back into the bullpen in the Mike King role, where I think he’s best suited. As a 1-3 inning pitcher (and a guy who can make a spot start on occasion), I think Schmidt will thrive and be more valuable than he is as a replaceable 5th starter. All of you will hate me for this, but I’d go grab Frankie Montas. Player Development staff down in Tampa raved about Montas’ commitment to mentoring the young guys down there, and his rehab starts showed that the stuff that makes Montas a tantalizing talent remains. Can he pitch more than 160 innings in 2024? I’m not sure, but I’m skeptical of the guys remaining on the trade market as well. I’d sign Montas to a 1-year “prove-it” deal, let him show us the guy that posted a 3.37 ERA in 180+ innings in 2021, and wait to see what shakes free at the trade deadline. Beyond that, I think that the Yankees need to go out and acquire a premium arm or two for the bullpen. Go sign Jordan Hicks, and let all of the other good bullpen arms the Yankees have already slot in beneath him. I think the bullpen has the chance to be really good, but supplementing it with a big-time fireballer would solidify the bullpen’s spot as a top-5 bullpen in baseball. Luis Gil should return this year, and is well-suited to be a premium bullpen arm. Two starting pitchers and a bullpen arm will almost certainly cost less than Yamamoto and a bullpen arm would have, but I actually think the Yankees can still make a well-rounded, championship-caliber pitching staff even without Yamamoto. www.startspreadingthenews.blog/post/sstn-mailbag-plan-b-after-yamamotoGreat post, and I wholeheartedly agree. In fact, letting Monty go - a homegrown lefty - was a travesty. Many of those discussions are within the thread history of this board, and that was prior to his throwing a single pitch with the Cardinals, much less the Rangers. One thing is certain, Monty can handle pitching in New York and in big games in the playoffs, no matter what Cashman was thinking or not thinking at the time. And, as you stated, it will only cost money rather than prospects. Also, perhaps to your surprise, I have maintained that Frankie Montas would be a good one-year prove-it signing, if for nothing else than he has a solid out-pitch in the splitter that could work in the bullpen quite well, even if he crashes and burns as a starter. If he is healthy, he could eat up innings as a starter in the four or five slot. The Yankees definitely need another wipe-out reliever in the bullpen. Last season, I wanted the Yankees to put Schmidt in the bullpen, but he showed me something down the stretch. If he can learn to pitch more effectively inside, he is a bonafide starter. He definitely gained much needed experience last season as a regular starter, so we may see him take another step forward, but he has got to pitch inside or he belongs in the bullpen, where he could thrive with an uptick in velocity and a three pitch mix. Also, he has to get that curveball back to being an out pitch. He lost command of it last season for some reason. Luis Gil has a ton of potential, as he showed when he was pulled up from double AA in what seems like an eternity ago. Schmidt put together a couple really nice months in May and June after a rather disastrous start to the season that the Yanks let him work through. Even July was pretty decent as he allowed only a .212 BA against, but his ERA took a bit of a hit because he allowed 5 HR. In August and September the innings starting piling up on him and I think he simply wore down a bit, in turn losing the curve ball. I’m still concerned about his inability to get through the third time around the batting order, but if he doesn’t get chances to try he never will. A lot of that can be attributed to our low-scoring offense not allowing room for error or pitcher growth last year. On the whole he’s been at his best the first time through the order with SLG swelling even the second time. If we don’t have to start him, his value would be as a multi innings reliever, or as potential trade bait to add to the farm we’ve been deploying through callups and trades… |
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Post by jiminy on Dec 23, 2023 23:04:00 GMT -5
Yankees consider strategic signing of Hyun-Jin Ryu Ryu’s performance in the 2023 season, marked by a 3.46 ERA over 11 starts with Toronto, underscores his capability. As a seasoned 10-year veteran, Ryu could be a strategic low-cost, high-upside addition for New York. While the Yankees could still pursue other high-profile pitchers like Jordan Montgomery, Ryu’s acquisition could provide a valuable enhancement to their pitching lineup. In summary, the Yankees are looking to bolster their starting rotation without necessarily adding another top-tier ace. Hyun-Jin Ryu, with his proven track record and potential for a strong comeback, appears to be a prime candidate for this role. His signing would represent a savvy move by the Yankees, blending experience, skill, and cost-effectiveness to enhance their pitching staff for the upcoming season. pinstripesnation.com/ex-dodgers-eyed-by-yankees-to-strengthen-rotation-2023-12-23/ |
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Post by kaybli on Dec 23, 2023 23:07:57 GMT -5
Yankees consider strategic signing of Hyun-Jin Ryu Ryu’s performance in the 2023 season, marked by a 3.46 ERA over 11 starts with Toronto, underscores his capability. As a seasoned 10-year veteran, Ryu could be a strategic low-cost, high-upside addition for New York. While the Yankees could still pursue other high-profile pitchers like Jordan Montgomery, Ryu’s acquisition could provide a valuable enhancement to their pitching lineup. In summary, the Yankees are looking to bolster their starting rotation without necessarily adding another top-tier ace. Hyun-Jin Ryu, with his proven track record and potential for a strong comeback, appears to be a prime candidate for this role. His signing would represent a savvy move by the Yankees, blending experience, skill, and cost-effectiveness to enhance their pitching staff for the upcoming season. pinstripesnation.com/ex-dodgers-eyed-by-yankees-to-strengthen-rotation-2023-12-23/I'd proably take Ryu over Montas on a one year deal. |
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Post by chiyankee on Dec 23, 2023 23:26:30 GMT -5
Ryu would be a good option for the back of the rotation but they still need to go after a major upgrade, line Montgomery.
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Post by qimqam on Dec 25, 2023 21:16:39 GMT -5
Yankees consider strategic signing of Hyun-Jin Ryu Ryu’s performance in the 2023 season, marked by a 3.46 ERA over 11 starts with Toronto, underscores his capability. As a seasoned 10-year veteran, Ryu could be a strategic low-cost, high-upside addition for New York. While the Yankees could still pursue other high-profile pitchers like Jordan Montgomery, Ryu’s acquisition could provide a valuable enhancement to their pitching lineup. In summary, the Yankees are looking to bolster their starting rotation without necessarily adding another top-tier ace. Hyun-Jin Ryu, with his proven track record and potential for a strong comeback, appears to be a prime candidate for this role. His signing would represent a savvy move by the Yankees, blending experience, skill, and cost-effectiveness to enhance their pitching staff for the upcoming season. pinstripesnation.com/ex-dodgers-eyed-by-yankees-to-strengthen-rotation-2023-12-23/I'd proably take Ryu over Montas on a one year deal. Pass on both ... get Giolito. Ryu is 36 and Montas prabably never going to pitch again |
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Post by inger on Dec 25, 2023 21:25:31 GMT -5
I'd proably take Ryu over Montas on a one year deal. Pass on both ... get Giolito. Ryu is 36 and Montas prabably never going to pitch again To me Ryu makes me feel like he’d be a repeat of J.A. Happ. I don’t long for that…I’d also take Dylan Cease… |
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Post by rizzuto on Dec 25, 2023 21:59:05 GMT -5
Pass on both ... get Giolito. Ryu is 36 and Montas prabably never going to pitch again To me Ryu makes me feel like he’d be a repeat of J.A. Happ. I don’t long for that…I’d also take Dylan Cease… Dylan Cease will cost prospects, and he is not great against lefties. I see him no more than a league average starter. Giolito is a free agent who is either on or off. When he's off, he walks batters and gives up fly balls, not ideal in Yankee Stadium. When he keeps the ball on the ground, he's much better. Ryu is crafty but is also going to be 37 years old, though he will be further removed from elbow surgery. The best pitcher available is Blake Snell, who knows what it is like pitching in the AL East, but he will be costly being represented by Scott "The Devil" Boras and coming off his second Cy Young Award. Snell has a lifetime ERA of 3.20 and is left-handed - that's the type of starter to line up behind Gerrit Cole. If Rodon returns to form after last year's debacle, that is as good of a 1-2-3 as there is in MLB. Jordan Montgomery is the same age as Blake Snell and also left-handed with a lifetime 3.68 ERA and is well aware of the American League East, but I don't trust Boone and his 4 and 2/3rds innings lifting of Monty even when he is pitching well. With two Cy Young Awards, I don't see Boone lifting Snell before five innings. |
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Post by fwclipper51 on Dec 25, 2023 22:04:19 GMT -5
To me Ryu makes me feel like he’d be a repeat of J.A. Happ. I don’t long for that…I’d also take Dylan Cease… Dylan Cease will cost prospects, and he is not great against lefties. I see him no more than a league average starter. Giolito is a free agent who is either on or off. When he's off, he walks batters and gives up fly balls, not ideal in Yankee Stadium. When he keeps the ball on the ground, he's much better. Ryu is crafty but is also going to be 37 years old, though he will be further removed from elbow surgery. The best pitcher available is Blake Snell, who knows what it is like pitching in the AL East, but he will be costly being represented by Scott "The Devil" Boras and coming off his second Cy Young Award. Snell has a lifetime ERA of 3.20 and is left-handed - that's the type of starter to line up behind Gerrit Cole. If Rodon returns to form after last year's debacle, that is as good of a 1-2-3 as there is in MLB. Jordan Montgomery is the same age as Blake Snell and also left-handed with a lifetime 3.68 ERA and is well aware of the American League East, but I don't trust Boone and his 4 and 2/3rds innings lifting of Monty even when he is pitching well. With two Cy Young Awards, I don't see Boone lifting Snell before five innings. For the money that he is going to get, he has to be more than a 5 inning starter, that's a good way to burn out your bullpen. Clipper |
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Post by rizzuto on Dec 25, 2023 22:17:37 GMT -5
Dylan Cease will cost prospects, and he is not great against lefties. I see him no more than a league average starter. Giolito is a free agent who is either on or off. When he's off, he walks batters and gives up fly balls, not ideal in Yankee Stadium. When he keeps the ball on the ground, he's much better. Ryu is crafty but is also going to be 37 years old, though he will be further removed from elbow surgery. The best pitcher available is Blake Snell, who knows what it is like pitching in the AL East, but he will be costly being represented by Scott "The Devil" Boras and coming off his second Cy Young Award. Snell has a lifetime ERA of 3.20 and is left-handed - that's the type of starter to line up behind Gerrit Cole. If Rodon returns to form after last year's debacle, that is as good of a 1-2-3 as there is in MLB. Jordan Montgomery is the same age as Blake Snell and also left-handed with a lifetime 3.68 ERA and is well aware of the American League East, but I don't trust Boone and his 4 and 2/3rds innings lifting of Monty even when he is pitching well. With two Cy Young Awards, I don't see Boone lifting Snell before five innings. For the money that he is going to get, he has to be more than a 5 inning starter, that's a good way to burn out your bullpen. Clipper The only Yankee pitcher who is provided the benefit to work out of trouble is Gerrit Cole. Everyone else is subject to the quick hook. That's a Boone-Cashman deal. And, it has worked so well keeping our pitchers healthy...  |
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Post by chiyankee on Dec 25, 2023 23:10:50 GMT -5
One note about Snell, who will certainly cost a lot of money to sign, he is not an innings eater. He only had 3 starts last season where he went more than 6 innings and he had none over 7 innings. He had 12 starts where he went 5 innings or less. Just something to think about.
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Post by inger on Dec 25, 2023 23:13:46 GMT -5
Snell is tough to hit when he’s right, but he’s not a strike thrower…
He allowed only 5.8 hits per nine last year, but he walked 5.0 per nine. In his first CYA season he allowed only 5.6 per 9, but in his typical seasons he allows around 7 per nine. He’s a bit of a puzzler…
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Post by kaybli on Dec 25, 2023 23:39:06 GMT -5
I don't like Snell at all between the walks and the low IP per start. I'd take Monty over him and it would cost less too. But mostly, I would like to target Burnes as a trade candidate.
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Post by rizzuto on Dec 26, 2023 0:22:25 GMT -5
I don't like Snell at all between the walks and the low IP per start. I'd take Monty over him and it would cost less too. But mostly certainly ask for Will Warren and Chase Hampton, I would like to target Burnes as a trade candidate. Corbin Burnes, like Juan Soto, will be a free agent after next season, and he will cost multiple prospects to the Brewers. They will likely ask for Spencer Jones, as well as taking both Will Warren and Chase Hampton. Burnes just turned 29 years old and is from Bakersfield, California, attending Centennial High School, where my good friend's son attended school playing both football and baseball. He just ended a five-year NFL career as a back up linebacker and special teams player and is attending law school, following in the footsteps of his mother. |
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Post by kaybli on Dec 26, 2023 0:39:49 GMT -5
I don't like Snell at all between the walks and the low IP per start. I'd take Monty over him and it would cost less too. But mostly certainly ask for Will Warren and Chase Hampton, I would like to target Burnes as a trade candidate. Corbin Burnes, like Juan Soto, will be a free agent after next season, and he will cost multiple prospects to the Brewers. They will likely ask for Spencer Jones, as well as taking both Will Warren and Chase Hampton. Burnes just turned 29 years old and is from Bakersfield, California, attending Centennial High School, where my good friend's son attended school playing both football and baseball. He just ended a five-year NFL career as a back up linebacker and special teams player and is attending law school, following in the footsteps of his mother. That's a way overpay for just one year of Burnes.
How bout for Clarke Schmidt and Chase Hampton?:
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