The roughly 1/3 season look at Yankee defensive metrics
Jun 3, 2024 17:24:38 GMT -5
kaybli, rizzuto, and 2 more like this
Post by qwik3457bb on Jun 3, 2024 17:24:38 GMT -5
Every year at the old message board, about 1/3 of the way through the season, and again a couple of weeks after the All-Star Break, I would open up Fangraphs and take a look at how the Yankees stood defensively, both individually and as a team. My thinking was: any reasonably intelligent fan could look at the public hitting and pitching numbers and see how the players and team were doing, but the defensive numbers are a bit harder to find. I should have done this last Monday, but it slipped my mind. But here we are with another off-day and no game to talk about, so I decided to slip it in now.
So, offered with the caveat that these number represent just 60 games of play and therefore are considered to have large "error bars" (meaning, they could be off, and just by probability considerations alone, a few will be way off a player's defensive ability and performance), I present the following...
Team, first:
Team Defensive Efficiency Rating; a measure created by Bill James, it's basically the percentage of balls put in play that are turned into outs. This is a somewhat crude tool, but in large numbers, it usually gets things right. If it appears to you that the Yanks have been better this year defensively as a team, your impression is correct. In DER, the Yanks are 1st in the AL, and 2nd in all of MLB to the Dodgers. Anyone who's watched the outfield play the last couple of seasons will notice the big change in left. By way of comparison, they led the AL last year and were 3rd in MLB, but the raw numbers tell a different story: .721 so far this year, .703 last year. 2% more efficient might not seem a lot at first glance, but the league-wide gap from top to bottom is just 5-6 %. Improving by .018 in DER is equivalent to reducing the pitching staff's batting average against by roughly 12 points, roughly 60 hits for the whole team for the season. (As you might expect given they lead the league in DER, they currently also have the lowest team batting average against at .210.) Ever since 2020, the Yanks appear to have finally gotten the message, and removed the high "three true outcomes" sluggers at many positons and replaced them with hitters who hit fewer home runs, but who make more contact, still draw a goodly number of walks, and who can play their positions well.
Since 2020, the Yanks have replaced Gary Sanchez at catcher with Jose Trevino, Kyle Higashiioka and now Austin Wells. Replaced Luke Voit at 1st with Anthony Rizzo. Moved Gleyber Torres off short to 2nd base, a slightly less demanding position, and replaced him with Anthony Volpe, who, even if you don't think he deserved the Gold Glove last season, is a noticeably better than average shortstop. DJ Lemahieu has been moved off 2nd to the corners (a detriment offensively in that his declining bat can't cover either corner, but it also adjusted for his diminished range at 2nd). They've taken Clint Frazier and Stanton out of right and replaced them now with Soto, and one which by his reputation seemed a lateral move at best, but has added offense without hurting them defensively, at least so far. Replaced an aging Hicks in center with Judge. Gardner left, and they played subpar left fiielders last year. Now, they have Verdugo, who, to my eyes, seems to be turning in an at least Gold Glove nominee level of performance.
==================
On the the individual players...
At 1st base: Rizzo's defensive play seems down this year from where it was not quite 3 years ago when he got to the Yanks. The metrics are equivocal. Except for his play after the concussion last season, he's been average or a bit better; that's also what they show this year so far: He's a dead even 0 in both BIS' Defensive Runs Saved (13th among 21 quaqlified 1st basemen), and Statcast Outs Above Average (9th). and +2.3 runs save per/150 games (9th) by UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). Statcast's coverall metric FRV (Fielding Runs Value) has him at 0 as well, ranking 9th.
At 2nd base: Torres is at -3 runs in DRS (17th of 22 qualified 2nd baseman), -2.7 runs per 150 in UZR (16th), flat 0 in OAA (14th), and flat 0 again in FRV (14th again). If it seems Torres is having a below average year defensively, the metrics back up that assessment at this point.
At shortstop: Volpe is at +3 in DRS (9th of 24 qualified shortstops), +4.6 in runs per 150 in UZR (5th), +6 in OAA (4th), +5 in FRV (3rd). It may not seem like it when he blows an occasional play that most think should be made, but he's performing at near Gold-Glove level again.
At 3rd: I had to lower the innings limit to 200 innings at 3rd to make sure that any Yankee could "qualify". Just watching Cabrera at 3rd, he LOOKS like an average 3rd baseman and the metrics bear that out. +3 runs in DRS, good for 6th out of 30 listed 3rd baseman, +3.5 in runs per 150 in UZR (12th), -2 in OAA (21st) and -2 in FRV (26th)
In left: The naked eye test says that Verdugo has played an outstanding left field for the Yanks this year (and remember, he has to cover the huge LF territory at the Stadium), and the numbers agree with what our eyes are telling us; +8 in DRS (1st among 19 leftfielders with 300 innings plyed, although the injured Steven Kwan of the Indians would be above him given the same number of innings), +8.7 in runs saved per 150 in UZR (good for 5th), +3 in OAA (2nd) and +4 in FRV (1st).Verdugo has played a Gold Glove caliber left field. So far.
In center: Judge's size says he shouldn't be good out there, but he's holding his own, and maybe a bit more. +1 in DRS (8th of 21 CF with at least 300 innings), +5.3 in runs saved per 150 in UZR (9th) +1 in OAA (13th) and +1 in FRV (12th). To get his offensive production out of that position while he plays at least an average CF is an enormous boost to the team. Baseball Reference has a stat called Wins Above Average, or how many bWAR a player ranks above all those at his position. Right now, the Yanks, mostly Judge, are +1.8 bWAR in center (and remember, Grisham's weekly 0-4 is a drag on the positional WAR total for the Yanks), best in all of MLB; the next best is the Red Sox at +1.0. Remember, that's slightly more than 1/3 of a season and the average starting player is roughly 2 wins above replacement level.
In right: Soto came into New York with the reputation of being sub-par as a fielder, but he's done much better than that in the defensive metrics so far. Whether it's because he's fully healthy, or motivated by the opportunity to become a half-billionaire and is focusing more on his defense, he's +3 in DRS (7th out of 21 rightfielders with 250 or more innings), +6.2 in runs saved per 150 in UZR (6th), +1 in OAA (4th), and +2 in DRV (5th). He's been generationally great with the bat in his hand, but he's gotten it done with the glove and arm as well. Remember, he saved the Opening Day win against the Astros that set the tone for the season so far with a crucial baserunner kill in the 9th inning while Holmes was struggling.
At catcher, the defenisve metrics are piecemeal and not terribly reliable, but there are 30 catchers with more than 250 innings caught, and here are the numbers for the Wells and Trevino, who are splitting the position almost evenly (265+ innings for Trevino, 279+ for Wells): Trevino is +5 in DRS, Wells is +3, good for 4th and 8th among the 30. Neither UZR runs saved per 150 nor OAA are available for catchers, but in Framing Runs, Trevino is +4.4 (2nd) and Wlls is +2.3 (7th). FRV has Trevino at +5 and Wells at +2 (1st and 12th, respectively). So the Yanks are getting plus defense and plus framing from both catchers.
At the team level, these metrics say:
The Yanks are +8 Defensive Runs Saved, 2nd in MLB behind only the Tigers.
1st in catcher Framing Runs at +6.7
1st in FRV at +7
3rd in Fangraphs' own catchall metric, team defensive runs at +10.8
===========================
I know they've had some critical defensive screwups that have cost them a game here and there, but your eyes are not deceiving you: this has been an excellent defensive first third of the season for the Yanks, especially at catcher and in the outfield. It's played a significant if relatively unnoticed part of why they have the best record in the league, and 2nd best in all of MLB, and its almost certainly a signifcant factor in the surprise success of their entire rotation.
I hope they can keep it up all the way through the post-season.
So, offered with the caveat that these number represent just 60 games of play and therefore are considered to have large "error bars" (meaning, they could be off, and just by probability considerations alone, a few will be way off a player's defensive ability and performance), I present the following...
Team, first:
Team Defensive Efficiency Rating; a measure created by Bill James, it's basically the percentage of balls put in play that are turned into outs. This is a somewhat crude tool, but in large numbers, it usually gets things right. If it appears to you that the Yanks have been better this year defensively as a team, your impression is correct. In DER, the Yanks are 1st in the AL, and 2nd in all of MLB to the Dodgers. Anyone who's watched the outfield play the last couple of seasons will notice the big change in left. By way of comparison, they led the AL last year and were 3rd in MLB, but the raw numbers tell a different story: .721 so far this year, .703 last year. 2% more efficient might not seem a lot at first glance, but the league-wide gap from top to bottom is just 5-6 %. Improving by .018 in DER is equivalent to reducing the pitching staff's batting average against by roughly 12 points, roughly 60 hits for the whole team for the season. (As you might expect given they lead the league in DER, they currently also have the lowest team batting average against at .210.) Ever since 2020, the Yanks appear to have finally gotten the message, and removed the high "three true outcomes" sluggers at many positons and replaced them with hitters who hit fewer home runs, but who make more contact, still draw a goodly number of walks, and who can play their positions well.
Since 2020, the Yanks have replaced Gary Sanchez at catcher with Jose Trevino, Kyle Higashiioka and now Austin Wells. Replaced Luke Voit at 1st with Anthony Rizzo. Moved Gleyber Torres off short to 2nd base, a slightly less demanding position, and replaced him with Anthony Volpe, who, even if you don't think he deserved the Gold Glove last season, is a noticeably better than average shortstop. DJ Lemahieu has been moved off 2nd to the corners (a detriment offensively in that his declining bat can't cover either corner, but it also adjusted for his diminished range at 2nd). They've taken Clint Frazier and Stanton out of right and replaced them now with Soto, and one which by his reputation seemed a lateral move at best, but has added offense without hurting them defensively, at least so far. Replaced an aging Hicks in center with Judge. Gardner left, and they played subpar left fiielders last year. Now, they have Verdugo, who, to my eyes, seems to be turning in an at least Gold Glove nominee level of performance.
==================
On the the individual players...
At 1st base: Rizzo's defensive play seems down this year from where it was not quite 3 years ago when he got to the Yanks. The metrics are equivocal. Except for his play after the concussion last season, he's been average or a bit better; that's also what they show this year so far: He's a dead even 0 in both BIS' Defensive Runs Saved (13th among 21 quaqlified 1st basemen), and Statcast Outs Above Average (9th). and +2.3 runs save per/150 games (9th) by UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). Statcast's coverall metric FRV (Fielding Runs Value) has him at 0 as well, ranking 9th.
At 2nd base: Torres is at -3 runs in DRS (17th of 22 qualified 2nd baseman), -2.7 runs per 150 in UZR (16th), flat 0 in OAA (14th), and flat 0 again in FRV (14th again). If it seems Torres is having a below average year defensively, the metrics back up that assessment at this point.
At shortstop: Volpe is at +3 in DRS (9th of 24 qualified shortstops), +4.6 in runs per 150 in UZR (5th), +6 in OAA (4th), +5 in FRV (3rd). It may not seem like it when he blows an occasional play that most think should be made, but he's performing at near Gold-Glove level again.
At 3rd: I had to lower the innings limit to 200 innings at 3rd to make sure that any Yankee could "qualify". Just watching Cabrera at 3rd, he LOOKS like an average 3rd baseman and the metrics bear that out. +3 runs in DRS, good for 6th out of 30 listed 3rd baseman, +3.5 in runs per 150 in UZR (12th), -2 in OAA (21st) and -2 in FRV (26th)
In left: The naked eye test says that Verdugo has played an outstanding left field for the Yanks this year (and remember, he has to cover the huge LF territory at the Stadium), and the numbers agree with what our eyes are telling us; +8 in DRS (1st among 19 leftfielders with 300 innings plyed, although the injured Steven Kwan of the Indians would be above him given the same number of innings), +8.7 in runs saved per 150 in UZR (good for 5th), +3 in OAA (2nd) and +4 in FRV (1st).Verdugo has played a Gold Glove caliber left field. So far.
In center: Judge's size says he shouldn't be good out there, but he's holding his own, and maybe a bit more. +1 in DRS (8th of 21 CF with at least 300 innings), +5.3 in runs saved per 150 in UZR (9th) +1 in OAA (13th) and +1 in FRV (12th). To get his offensive production out of that position while he plays at least an average CF is an enormous boost to the team. Baseball Reference has a stat called Wins Above Average, or how many bWAR a player ranks above all those at his position. Right now, the Yanks, mostly Judge, are +1.8 bWAR in center (and remember, Grisham's weekly 0-4 is a drag on the positional WAR total for the Yanks), best in all of MLB; the next best is the Red Sox at +1.0. Remember, that's slightly more than 1/3 of a season and the average starting player is roughly 2 wins above replacement level.
In right: Soto came into New York with the reputation of being sub-par as a fielder, but he's done much better than that in the defensive metrics so far. Whether it's because he's fully healthy, or motivated by the opportunity to become a half-billionaire and is focusing more on his defense, he's +3 in DRS (7th out of 21 rightfielders with 250 or more innings), +6.2 in runs saved per 150 in UZR (6th), +1 in OAA (4th), and +2 in DRV (5th). He's been generationally great with the bat in his hand, but he's gotten it done with the glove and arm as well. Remember, he saved the Opening Day win against the Astros that set the tone for the season so far with a crucial baserunner kill in the 9th inning while Holmes was struggling.
At catcher, the defenisve metrics are piecemeal and not terribly reliable, but there are 30 catchers with more than 250 innings caught, and here are the numbers for the Wells and Trevino, who are splitting the position almost evenly (265+ innings for Trevino, 279+ for Wells): Trevino is +5 in DRS, Wells is +3, good for 4th and 8th among the 30. Neither UZR runs saved per 150 nor OAA are available for catchers, but in Framing Runs, Trevino is +4.4 (2nd) and Wlls is +2.3 (7th). FRV has Trevino at +5 and Wells at +2 (1st and 12th, respectively). So the Yanks are getting plus defense and plus framing from both catchers.
At the team level, these metrics say:
The Yanks are +8 Defensive Runs Saved, 2nd in MLB behind only the Tigers.
1st in catcher Framing Runs at +6.7
1st in FRV at +7
3rd in Fangraphs' own catchall metric, team defensive runs at +10.8
===========================
I know they've had some critical defensive screwups that have cost them a game here and there, but your eyes are not deceiving you: this has been an excellent defensive first third of the season for the Yanks, especially at catcher and in the outfield. It's played a significant if relatively unnoticed part of why they have the best record in the league, and 2nd best in all of MLB, and its almost certainly a signifcant factor in the surprise success of their entire rotation.
I hope they can keep it up all the way through the post-season.
