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Post by laurenfrances on Jul 9, 2024 15:20:58 GMT -5
Ben Rice (L) 1B
Juan Soto (L) RF
Aaron Judge (R) DH
Alex Verdugo (L) LF
Gleyber Torres (R) 2B
Austin Wells (L) C
Anthony Volpe (R) SS
Trent Grisham (L) CF
DJ LeMahieu (R) 3B
Yandy Díaz (R) 1B
Randy Arozarena (R) LF
Amed Rosario (R) DH
Isaac Paredes (R) 3B
Jose Siri (R) CF
Jonny DeLuca (R) RF
José Caballero (R) 2B
Taylor Walls (S) SS
Alex Jackson (R) C
Ryan Pepiot
RHP
4-5, 4.40 ERA, 83 SO
Carlos Rodón
LHP
9-6, 4.45 ERA, 100 SO
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Post by chiyankee on Jul 9, 2024 15:23:31 GMT -5
Anyone think there's a correlation to Judge's recent slump and all these games he's been at DH?
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Post by JEGnj on Jul 9, 2024 15:30:30 GMT -5
Going to minor league BlueClaws ballgame tonight.
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Post by ill636 on Jul 9, 2024 15:33:06 GMT -5
Anyone think there's a correlation to Judge's recent slump and all these games he's been at DH? No, just in a terrible slump... Hard to understand after great May and June... |
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 9, 2024 15:48:06 GMT -5
Anyone think there's a correlation to Judge's recent slump and all these games he's been at DH? No, just in a terrible slump... Hard to understand after great May and June... Bound to happen sooner or later. Can't keep hitting like he did for those two months. Nobody hits that well in the contemporary game. |
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 9, 2024 15:48:45 GMT -5
The Yanks travel to Tampa having lost 15 of 20, failing to win any of their last 7 series. In that time, the rest of the AL teams have gained significant ground on them: the last place Jays have gone 8-13, gaining 2 1/2 games in that time; the 3rd-place Red Sox have gone 14-5, gaining the most games (9 1/2); the O's have taken back first place, going 12-9 to gain 6 1/2 game and move 3 games in front, and the 4th-place Rays have gained 6 games by going 11-9, to move within 10 games of the Yanks. The Rays are now 44-46 on the season, having lost 3 in a row and 4 of 5 after winning 9 of 12. They're still managed by an outstanding manger in Kevin Cash, so it's no surprise they're outperforming their run differential; -67 runs coming in should give them a record of about 38-52, and they're 6 games better. Because of that, they're still on the fringes of the Wild Card race, 5 1/2 games behind the Red Sox, who hold the last Wild Card right now, with the Royals and Astros between them and Boston.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 9, 2024 15:50:15 GMT -5
The Rays send out highly-regarded Ryan Pepiot to start the series opener against the Yanks. The latest in a long series of talented, unproven starting pitchers obtained by trade for an established veteran starter about to become too expensive for the Rays to keep (this time Tyler Glasnow), Pepiot was drafted by the Dodgers in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft. He pitched very well in limited innings at both rookie-ball and A-ball in that year: 1.93 ERA in 3 relief appearances and 10 very short starts: just 23+ innings with 31 K, but also 13 BB. He spent 2020 in developmental camp like every other prospect, and in 2021, the Dodgers started him in AA, where he pitched 13 starts and 2 relief appearances. Again, he pitched well there, but again, few innings: 59 2/3 innings and a 2.87 ERA. He was moved up to AAA in early August and got his head handed to him in 9 starts and 2 relief games: a 7.13 ERA, 54 hits, 21 BB and 12 HR in just 41 2/3 innings. In spite of his terrible work at AAA, Baseball America had Pepiot barely inside their top 100 at #99.
Pepiot opened 2022 with 6 good if again very brief starts at AAA, and the Dodgers called him up for the first time in mid-May to make two somewhat effective and very brief starts. They started him on the Oklahoma City-Los Angeles shuttle; he would bounce back and forth five more times that season. He wound up 9-1 with a 2.56 ERA in 17 starts at AAA, and 3-0 with a 3.47 ERA in 7 starts and 2 relief games in the majors. That offseason, Pepiot was top 100 on the lists from Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. He was supposed to open the season in the Dodgers rotation in 2023, but strained his left obligue in spring training and wound up missing the entire first half of the season. He ramped back up in AAA and made six OK rehab starts from mid-July through mid-August, and the Dodgers called him back up and put him in the rotation on August 19th. He pitched brilliantly in 8 starts down the stretch, going 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA, allowing just 27 hits and 5 BB with 38 K in 42 innings. Despite that, he wasn't on the roster for the NLDS, and the Dodgers were swept in 3 games by the Diamondbacks. Pepiot was expected to be one of the Dodgers five starters in 2024, but seeing a chance to get a solid return for Glasnow (who was entering his last year of team control), the Rays traded him along with a salary dump in outfielder Manuel Margot for Pepiot, and solid outfield prospect Jonny DeLuca.
This year, Pepiot is 4-5 with a 4.40 ERA in 15 starts. In 75 2/3 innings, he's allowed just 57 hits, 11 HR and 28 BB, but that has translated into 37 runs, all earned. He's struck out 83 and has a solid 1.123 WHIP. Pepiot has struggled a bit in his last 5 starts, making it to the 5th inning just twice, going 0-3 with 2 no-decisions. In 23 1/3 innings, he's allowed 23 hits, 14 runs, all earned, 12 BB, 5 HR and K'd 24. In fairness, 3 of those 5 were against teams that can hit; the Royals, the Braves and the Orioles. Tonight is Pepiot's 1st-ever appearance against the Yankees.
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Post by kaybli on Jul 9, 2024 15:51:28 GMT -5
Going to minor league BlueClaws ballgame tonight. Have fun JEG! |
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 9, 2024 15:56:47 GMT -5
Repertoire: Pepiot is a 5-pitch righty, but relies heavily on three: 4-seamer, slider and change. He also has a curve and a cutter that he uses sparingly. His FB gets elite "rise" (6th best in the majors among almost 400 pitchers listed) and also some run. His slider is really more of a sweeper, getting much less drop than average, but more break away from righies and into lefties than average. His change is a has solid two-plane movement, getting better than average tail, and much better than average drop. He gets better than average movement on both the cutter and curve, especially the break into lefties and away from righties on the curve. By run values, he pitches off his fastball because it gets elite results: +9 runs so far. The slider is also a plus pitch, but despite its two-plane movment, the change is a big minus (-10 so far). My guess is that he's either tipping off the change, or has been having a lot of trouble locating the change, and it's winding up in crushable spots. His FB velo is above average, the spin is well above average, and so is his extension, making everything play up somewhat. In terms of batted balls, both his barrel and hard hit rates are below average. His line drive, flyball and ground ball rates are near league average, his gets 25% more popups than the average MLB pitcher. He's been lucky on BABIP, just .253 compared to the MLB average of .283, his HR per flyball rate is above average (and would appear to be relatively higher than that, considering his home games are in Tampa, a bad hitter's park...it's sort of strange that he's been pitching significantly worse at home, 4.93 ERA, than on the road, 3.60 ERA) and his strand rate in near league average as well. Despite his somewhat lucky BABIP and average strand rate, his ERA estimators place his perfomance in the 4.00-4.10 range, a bit better than his current ERA. The pitch mix so far this season: FB averaging 95 about 52% of the time, slider 89 about 22%, change 86 about 21% of the time. The cutter 92 and curve 80 take up the remaining 5%, split about evenly. He's begun using the cutter and curve a bit more in his last few starts, still evenly, but about 10% of his pitches in his last 3 starts, and using the slider and change a bit less.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 9, 2024 16:01:09 GMT -5
Playing the name game...There have been just over 100 MLB players with first name Ryan, and while it's not another name that became popular in the last 30 years, almost all of them debuted after 1990. None of them have been Hall of Famers, but several had excellent 10-15 year careers. The best of them is either 3rd baseman Ryan Zimmerman or outfielder Ryan Braun; both are have over 40 bWAR. Braun has 7 more, but he also tested positive for testosterone misuse in 2011, and after trying to falsely play the victim card, finally admitted it a few years later. So, if you want to make Zimmerman the King of the Ryans, OK by me.
Considering the heavy influence of Irish players in the 19th and early 20th centuries, it's somewhat surprising that there are less than 25 MLB players with the last name Ryan. Amusingly, there have been no less than 4 different Jack Ryans. There have been several good Ryans: catcher B.J. Ryan, 19th century outfielder Jimmy Ryan, who got over 2500 hits in the majors, and current Twins starter Joe Ryan among them, but the best Ryan, by a galactic margin, in MLB history is Lynn "Nolan" Ryan, still the all-time leader in strikeouts, hits per 9 innings, no-hitters and yes, in walks. He won over 300 games, ranking 14th all-time, he's 2nd all-time in games started, and 5th in innings pitched. He's also the only pitcher who's thrown more than 4 no-hitters, with 7, the only pitcher with no-hitters in 3 diferent decades, and had 18 seasons between the first and last no-hitter. He also holds the record for career 3-hitters with 31, 2-hitters with 18, and is tied with Bob Feller with twelve 1-hitters. It's amazing to me that baseball experts were, for quite a long time, seriously making the argument that Ryan wasn't a Hall of Famer because his W-L records were mediocre-to-poor many years of his career, and it is true that he lost almost 300 games as well. But he's also tied with Cap Anson for the most major league seasons at 27, and was an effective pitcher right up until his next-to-last season at age 45, and was a full time major leaguer for 22 of them. I can't imagine a Hall of Fame without room for a Nolan Ryan.
Oh, almost forgot...Ryan is the only Pepiot in major league history.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 9, 2024 16:03:03 GMT -5
Carlos Rodon ended his 3-game skid of horrendous starts with an OK effort against the Reds, but got outpitched by Cincinnati' starter Andrew Abbott. He made big mistakes on 2 HR pitches, and that was enough for the Yanks to lose, 3-2. In his last 4 starts, Rodon is 0-4, and has been beaten, as they used to say, "like a rented mule": 19 inninigs, 31 hits, 24 runs, 23 earned, 7 HR, 8 BB and 26 K's. His ERA is over 11.00 and his WHIP is just over 2.00. After getting off to a promising start, his seasonal numbers are quite disappointing: 9-6 with a 4.45 ERA. In 18 starts, he's gone 99 innings, allowing 95 hits, 51 runs, 49 earned, 18 HR, 28 BB and struck out 100. His WHIP on the season is now a pedestrian 1.242, right around league average. The Girardism: "not what you want" from your $27 million a year starter would seem to apply.
This is Rodon's 7th career start against the Rays, and he hasn't been good: 0-2 with a 4.82 ERA. In 28 innings, he's allowed 27 hits, 16 runs, 15 earned, 4 HR, a terrible 21 BB, and struck out 32. His career WHIP against Tampa is an awful 1.714, and as you might imagine, their team quadruple slash line against Rodon isn't pretty: .250/.392/.452/.844. Some of this was exacerbated by two bad starts against the Rays in last year's injury-ruined season: a poor 4-inning start at the Stadium on August 1st in which he gave up 4 hits, 4 BB, 2 HR and 4 earned runs in just 4 innings in a 5-2 Rays win, and a mediocre start in Tampa 3 weeks later in which he gave up 4 hits, 2 BB and 1 HR for two runs while striking out 7, but still couldn't make it out of the 5th inning in a 7-4 Rays win. But even before last season, his record against the Rays wasn't great: 2 bad starts, 1 so-so start and just one good start. This Rays team is offensively challenged: tied for 13th in HR, 11th in OPS, 12th in runs per game in the AL, and while they have done better in their recent good play (4.4 runs per game in the last 17 games as opposed to 3.8 per game in the first 73), if Rodon can't manage at least a competent start against this team in this pitcher's park, he and the Yankees are in big trouble going forward.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 9, 2024 16:05:17 GMT -5
Yankees lineup vs Pepiot: only 2 Yanks have faced Pepiot before, and as you might guess, they're the two OF who came over from the NL this season (in the same trade, no less)
Soto is 2-3 with a solo HR and a BB
Grisham is 0-3
On the bench: None
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Rays lineup vs. Rodon:
1. Diaz (1B) is 3-9 with a HR, 3 RBI and 3 K
2. Arozarena (LF) is 2-5 with a HR, 2 RBI and 2 K
3. Rosario (DH) is 1-11 with a solo HR, 1 BB and 4 K
4. Paredes (3B) is 1-5
5. Siri (CF) is 0-4 with 2 K
6. DeLuca (RF) has never faced Rodon
7. Caballero (2B) hasn't either
8. Walls (SS) hasn't also
9. Jackson (C) hasn't as well
On the bench: Brendan Lowe is 2-6 with a solo HR, 2 BB and 3 K
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 9, 2024 16:06:02 GMT -5
Yesterday, the entire AL east was off.
In other AL East action...there wasn't any, so the standings remain the same as they were at the end of the evening on Sunday: The Orioles lead the Yanks by 3. The Red Sox are 7 1/2 back and 4 1/2 behind the Yanks. The Rays are 5 1/2 behind Boston, 10 behind the Yanks and 13 out of 1st. The Jays are still in last, 3 behind the Rays, 8 1/2 behind Boston, 13 back of the Yanks and 16 games out of 1st.
Elsewhere in the AL East today, the O's are back home to start a 3-game series at Camden Yards at 6:35 pm against the Cubs. Ex-Yankee Jameson Taillon (5-4, 2.99 ERA) having another bounceback season, will put his recent hot streak on the line against the dangerous Orioles' lineup. In his last 5 starts, Taillon is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA, with a K/BB ratio of 30 to 4 in 32 innings, allowing just 4 HR. Dean Kremer (4-4, 3.93 ERA) makes his 2nd start for Baltimore since coming off 6 weeks on the IL. The first one went very well: 5 innings of 2-hit shutout ball, striking 8 and walking just 2 in a win over the Mariners. At 7:10 pm in Fenway Park, the Red Sox welcome the A's to Boston for a 3 game series. Rookie Joey Estes (3-3, 4.03 ERA) makes his 11th start for Oakland; he threw a 5-hit shutout against the Angels in his last start. Bryan Bello (8-5, 5.19 ERA) finally broke his slump with a win last time, giving up just 1 run in 6 2/3. To be sure, it was against the Misearble Marlins of Miami, but the A's aren't any better. And at 9:45 in Oracle Park, the Jays start a 3-game series with the Giants. Yusei Kikucki, who bounced back from his poor game against the Yanks with a good game against the Astros in a no-decision, starts for the Jays. He's 4-8 on the season with a 4.12 ERA. He'll be opposed by Blake Snell, making his first start since coming off the IL for the 2nd time this season after a month's stay. Snell has had a nightmarish 1st half, two trips to the IL, and he's 0-3 with a 9.51 ERA in just 5 starts. Even the Yanks slapped him around in his last start before he went back on the IL in early June, about 10 days before the team swoon began.
And, at 6:50 in the HorrbleDome™, it's Rodon vs. Pepiot.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 9, 2024 16:08:32 GMT -5
Going to minor league BlueClaws ballgame tonight. You might well have a better time watching that game anyway. Enjoy. |
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Post by JEGnj on Jul 9, 2024 16:18:00 GMT -5
BlueClaws are playing Hudson Valley Renegades. Says Renegades are Yankees high A affiliate
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