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Post by chiyankee on Jul 25, 2024 18:17:33 GMT -5
The same amount of wins over what period of time?
The site I used for my stat is Sportshandle.com and they tabulated results since 2011. The page also had a methodology link where they explained where they got their stats. I will try again:
sportshandle.com/mlb-cost-per-win/#methodology
The link worked for me, thanks for posting it. |
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Post by 1955nyyfan on Jul 25, 2024 19:16:58 GMT -5
Looks like cherry picking. Why from only 2011? Are any of the Rays wins from 2011 on, have anything to do with them getting good draft picks being they were one of the worst teams in MLB from 1998-2007?
The Rays became a contending team for 6 years, then they had 5 bad seasons in a row before becoming a contending team again.
I don't mean this for you Pat. But a question for any Yankees fan that thinks the Yankees should follow the Ray's blueprint. Do Yankee fans really want the Yankees to have 5 bad seasons in a row?
The Yankees also play in a city where there are a lot of other entertainment options.
Max, you know I have great time sharing thoughts with you and all our conversations are in good spirit. Our disagreements about our favorite team are just a way for me to talk baseball at the computer. I don't know why the authors of that article started in 2011. Nothing jumps out at me. I would note the Rays were very good in the 3 preceding years so I don't think they were its focus. I will concede all your points about the demands placed on the Yankees by their fans. I will also point out that those arguments are the ones George roled out every year at the TDL. Only when he took a leap of faith and let the youngsters play did his fortunes really change. I don't know if that will ever happen again. But I want to try. The first or second sentence states that 2011 was the first year certain data was available. I would think payroll info would be easy to get but maybe not. WTS, a dozen years of data is a pretty good subset to let us evaluate how teams have been doing recently. I think it's a pretty good measure of ROI, but I guess one could argue that the return be changed to somthing like playoff wins or championships. They do make a couple comments on cost per championships at the end of the article. I think you could also make a case that cost shouldn't be limited to payroll. For example, do some teams spend more on player development than others and should that be considered a cost? I also think that small market teams have to have a different approach or what Max has called a blueprint because they don't have the same resources as the big revenue teams. I would think with Hal being a businessman and based on some of the comments he has made he is at least aware and probably pays attention to numbers like this. I also don't know if the model takes into account that more wins are exponentially more expensive or if they even are but I would guess that wins 90 to 100 in a season are going to cost more than 1-10. That's a gut feel on my part but does anyone who understands statistics better than I think that may be true. Even the worst rosters can win 50 games but the cost from 50 to 100 might be exponentially more costly? Anyway, I think there is some value in this data. I've said more than once that we've seen what Cash can do with a $300MM+ payroll. What would he do if he had the same payroll as the Rays? We each have our own perspective on the job he has done. I used to consider him to be a middle of the road GM but now consider him to be terrible. IMO, you either have to love Hal's loyalty or be concerned that he can't make the really hard personnel decisions. |
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Post by bruner4329 on Jul 25, 2024 20:12:22 GMT -5
I agree with you about him leading off, unless he makes the adjustment I mentioned. There are times watching Volpe bat that I wonder if he feels talking a walk is a bad outcome. And this may prevent him from having a significantly better batting average. I see him swinging at 2-0 pitches and 3-1 pitches out of the zone because its almost like he thinks he must because he is ahead of the count. |
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Post by rizzuto on Jul 25, 2024 20:39:34 GMT -5
I don't see him as a leadoff hitter. As I said, he's been stereotyped as one because he's 5'9", fast & plays SS. In fact, his strength of stealing bases is lost hitting in front of Soto/Judge. Which I think is dumb. If running is a strength use it. Outs on the bases in front of a slugger don’t suck any worse than when said slugger hits into a DP… I can see being a bit less aggressive until Soto bats. He can hit behind you, etc.. But run freely with Judge up. Not every ball he hits leaves the park… Players in the 70s and 80s knew how to hit with base stealers in front of them. Not sure why players cannot be taught fundamentals anymore. |
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Post by ypaterson on Jul 25, 2024 20:44:02 GMT -5
Max, you know I have great time sharing thoughts with you and all our conversations are in good spirit. Our disagreements about our favorite team are just a way for me to talk baseball at the computer. I don't know why the authors of that article started in 2011. Nothing jumps out at me. I would note the Rays were very good in the 3 preceding years so I don't think they were its focus. I will concede all your points about the demands placed on the Yankees by their fans. I will also point out that those arguments are the ones George roled out every year at the TDL. Only when he took a leap of faith and let the youngsters play did his fortunes really change. I don't know if that will ever happen again. But I want to try. The first or second sentence states that 2011 was the first year certain data was available. I would think payroll info would be easy to get but maybe not. WTS, a dozen years of data is a pretty good subset to let us evaluate how teams have been doing recently. I think it's a pretty good measure of ROI, but I guess one could argue that the return be changed to somthing like playoff wins or championships. They do make a couple comments on cost per championships at the end of the article. I think you could also make a case that cost shouldn't be limited to payroll. For example, do some teams spend more on player development than others and should that be considered a cost? I also think that small market teams have to have a different approach or what Max has called a blueprint because they don't have the same resources as the big revenue teams. I would think with Hal being a businessman and based on some of the comments he has made he is at least aware and probably pays attention to numbers like this. I also don't know if the model takes into account that more wins are exponentially more expensive or if they even are but I would guess that wins 90 to 100 in a season are going to cost more than 1-10. That's a gut feel on my part but does anyone who understands statistics better than I think that may be true. Even the worst rosters can win 50 games but the cost from 50 to 100 might be exponentially more costly? Anyway, I think there is some value in this data. I've said more than once that we've seen what Cash can do with a $300MM+ payroll. What would he do if he had the same payroll as the Rays? We each have our own perspective on the job he has done. I used to consider him to be a middle of the road GM but now consider him to be terrible. IMO, you either have to love Hal's loyalty or be concerned that he can't make the really hard personnel decisions. Yes, payroll data before 2011 is widely available on the internet. I am at a loss to understand the explanation of the authors. As to your other points, I might give an effort to trying to model some things when I am running at full speed. The article I quoted only looked at the efficency of each team using a simplified model with one input: $$$. We know that there are other inputs including draft picks and international signing dollars. And there could be others too. I am just too worn down to think straight right now. |
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Post by ypaterson on Jul 25, 2024 20:47:50 GMT -5
There are times watching Volpe bat that I wonder if he feels talking a walk is a bad outcome. And this may prevent him from having a significantly better batting average. I see him swinging at 2-0 pitches and 3-1 pitches out of the zone because its almost like he thinks he must because he is ahead of the count. |
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Post by 1955nyyfan on Jul 25, 2024 21:29:54 GMT -5
The first or second sentence states that 2011 was the first year certain data was available. I would think payroll info would be easy to get but maybe not. WTS, a dozen years of data is a pretty good subset to let us evaluate how teams have been doing recently. I think it's a pretty good measure of ROI, but I guess one could argue that the return be changed to somthing like playoff wins or championships. They do make a couple comments on cost per championships at the end of the article. I think you could also make a case that cost shouldn't be limited to payroll. For example, do some teams spend more on player development than others and should that be considered a cost? I also think that small market teams have to have a different approach or what Max has called a blueprint because they don't have the same resources as the big revenue teams. I would think with Hal being a businessman and based on some of the comments he has made he is at least aware and probably pays attention to numbers like this. I also don't know if the model takes into account that more wins are exponentially more expensive or if they even are but I would guess that wins 90 to 100 in a season are going to cost more than 1-10. That's a gut feel on my part but does anyone who understands statistics better than I think that may be true. Even the worst rosters can win 50 games but the cost from 50 to 100 might be exponentially more costly? Anyway, I think there is some value in this data. I've said more than once that we've seen what Cash can do with a $300MM+ payroll. What would he do if he had the same payroll as the Rays? We each have our own perspective on the job he has done. I used to consider him to be a middle of the road GM but now consider him to be terrible. IMO, you either have to love Hal's loyalty or be concerned that he can't make the really hard personnel decisions. Yes, payroll data before 2011 is widely available on the internet. I am at a loss to understand the explanation of the authors. As to your other points, I might give an effort to trying to model some things when I am running at full speed. The article I quoted only looked at the efficency of each team using a simplified model with one input: $$$. We know that there are other inputs including draft picks and international signing dollars. And there could be others too. I am just too worn down to think straight right now. Pat, hope your health is ok. Seems you have been posting a bit more lately which I think is a really good thing. |
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Post by kaybli on Jul 25, 2024 21:32:45 GMT -5
Yes, payroll data before 2011 is widely available on the internet. I am at a loss to understand the explanation of the authors. As to your other points, I might give an effort to trying to model some things when I am running at full speed. The article I quoted only looked at the efficency of each team using a simplified model with one input: $$$. We know that there are other inputs including draft picks and international signing dollars. And there could be others too. I am just too worn down to think straight right now. Pat, hope your health is ok. Seems you have been posting a bit more lately which I think is a really good thing. Well wishes from me too, Pat. |
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Post by inger on Jul 25, 2024 22:13:43 GMT -5
Yes, payroll data before 2011 is widely available on the internet. I am at a loss to understand the explanation of the authors. As to your other points, I might give an effort to trying to model some things when I am running at full speed. The article I quoted only looked at the efficency of each team using a simplified model with one input: $$$. We know that there are other inputs including draft picks and international signing dollars. And there could be others too. I am just too worn down to think straight right now. Pat, hope your health is ok. Seems you have been posting a bit more lately which I think is a really good thing. Good to him posting more for a lot of reasons. Good poster, and we sure as heck don’t want him in poor health… |
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Post by Max on Jul 26, 2024 7:44:21 GMT -5
Looks like cherry picking. Why from only 2011? Are any of the Rays wins from 2011 on, have anything to do with them getting good draft picks being they were one of the worst teams in MLB from 1998-2007?
The Rays became a contending team for 6 years, then they had 5 bad seasons in a row before becoming a contending team again.
I don't mean this for you Pat. But a question for any Yankees fan that thinks the Yankees should follow the Ray's blueprint. Do Yankee fans really want the Yankees to have 5 bad seasons in a row?
The Yankees also play in a city where there are a lot of other entertainment options.
Max, you know I have great time sharing thoughts with you and all our conversations are in good spirit. Our disagreements about our favorite team are just a way for me to talk baseball at the computer. I don't know why the authors of that article started in 2011. Nothing jumps out at me. I would note the Rays were very good in the 3 preceding years so I don't think they were its focus. I will concede all your points about the demands placed on the Yankees by their fans. I will also point out that those arguments are the ones George roled out every year at the TDL. Only when he took a leap of faith and let the youngsters play did his fortunes really change. I don't know if that will ever happen again. But I want to try. So there's no misunderstanding, the cherry picking comment was not meant for you. You're a good guy Pat. I also enjoy our discussions, and I like that they are civil. In my opinion, if the Yankees re-sign Soto they are going to rely on many of their prospects for Luxury Tax reasons. |
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Post by Max on Jul 26, 2024 7:51:32 GMT -5
Arozarena was traded, looks like the Rays will be sellers once again. I could be wrong, but this is what I was talking about. If the Rays are indeed sellers, I expect them to have 3-5 bad seasons in a row before they become a contender again. That is, if many of the prospects they trade for reach their potential.
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Post by chiyankee on Jul 26, 2024 8:22:46 GMT -5
Arozarena was traded, looks like the Rays will be sellers once again. I could be wrong, but this is what I was talking about. If the Rays are indeed sellers, I expect them to have 3-5 bad seasons in a row before they become a contender again. That is, if many of the prospects they trade for reach their potential. The Rays are usually buyers and sellers at the same time and the usually know when to dump a guy before he becomes too expensive. |
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Post by ypaterson on Jul 26, 2024 8:53:20 GMT -5
Thanks gents...I appreciate the good words. I am fine and with good reaons to be thankful. Life ain't perfect but it is pretty good. It is even better during baseball season and improved by a community where you can share it.
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