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Post by bumper on Jul 26, 2024 14:42:45 GMT -5
agree we need to at least win this series to show we're turning it around. nestor been terrible at fenway w a 6.19 ERA and 1.688 WHIP in 16 innings. doesn't augur well for tonight's game. we better have our hitting shoes on.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 26, 2024 15:08:17 GMT -5
The Red Sox got demolished Wednesday afternoon in the 3rd game of their series at Coors field against the Rockies, 20-7. The loss was their 5th in 6th games since the All-Star Break, blunting a long stretch of excellent play in which they won 19 of 27 games to vault back into the playoff chase, including series wins over the Yanks in both Boston and the Bronx. They start two pitchers with a history of success against the Yanks, while the 3rd, Tanner Houck, has been less successful against New York, but is the best pitcher in the Sox rotation and one of the 5-6 pitchers in the AL so far this season. They just celebrated their return to contention by taking manager Joey Cora off the free agent market by signing him to an additional 3-year deal.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 26, 2024 15:09:34 GMT -5
The Red Sox open the series with righty starter Brayan Bello on the mound. Bello pitched against the Yanks in the series opening game in Fenway in June, the only game the Yanks won in that series. Since then, Bello has continued to pitch poorly, with an ERA of 5.79 and a WHIP of 1.53 in 32 2/3 innings in 6 starts. However, the Sox had been so hot, they won 4 of the six starts, and Bello himself went 4-1. He's pitched slightly better in his last two starts. On the season, Bello is 10-5 with a 5.27 ERA in 18 starts. In 95 2/3 innings, allowing 104 hits, 59 runs, 56 earned, 15 HR, 34 BB with 92 K's. His WHIP for the season is a very poor a 1.452.
The Yanks hit Bello pretty hard in the game at Fenway in June; before that, he had pitched extremely well against them in 5 prior starts with an ERA under 1.50 and a WHIP under 1.00, but with a record of 2-2. He's now 2-3 against the Yanks with an ERA if 2.27 in 6 starts. In 35 2/3 innings, he's allowed 31 hits, 14 runs, 9 earned, 1 HR, and 12 BB, with 30 K's. His WHIP against the Yanks is 1.206 and the Yankee team quadruple slash line against him is .225/.287/.312/.588. In the start this year at Fenway, the Yanks knocked Bello out in the 5th, having gone 4 1/3 innings, and allowing 6 hits, 5 runs, 4 earned, 3 BB and the first HR (to Verdugo) he'd ever given up to the Yanks. He also struck out 5, but took the loss in the big Verdugo game, the last win before the current collapse started.
Repertoire: Bello is a 4-pitch righty, but of the four, the 4-seamer is used rarely. He relies on his sinker, slider, and change, close to 1/3 of the time each. The sinker has considerably better than average drop and tail, the slider better than average drop and break to the glove-side and the change gets average drop, and above-average tail. The infrequently used 4-seamer gets worse than average rise and average run. By run values, the sinker is a huge minus, the slider is a sizeable minus and the other two are small plusses. His sinker and FB velocity are well above average but the spin is near the bottom of the league (not that important for a sinker; you want it to sink, not "rise", as high spin would produce). His extension is below average as well, but he does get a higher than average chase rate. He allows significantly more barrels than average and his hard hit rate in bottom 20% in MLB. His ground ball and line drive rates are above average, the flyball rate well below average and the popup rate is average. Bello's Strand rate is average, but his HR per FB rate and BABIP have been quite unlucky this year, and for those reasons, his ERA estimators think his ERA should be almost a run lower than it is. His swinging strike and called strike rates are both better than average, so his CSW of 29.1% would be top 20 in MLB if he had enough innings to qualify
Reviewing his name game quickly: There are 3 other Brayans in MLB history, Bello is the best of the 4; he's also the only Bello ever.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 26, 2024 15:19:02 GMT -5
The Yanks send Nestor Cortes out to try to stop the bleeding, both his and theirs. The team has lost 22 of their last 32, and Nestor hasn't won a game in his last 5 starts, pitching poorly in 3 of the 5. Since his last win against the Orioles in mid June, he's 0-4 with an ERA of 6.23. On the road this year, he's 0-5 with an ERA over 6.00 in 10 starts. On the season, Nestor is now 4-9, and his ERA has ballooned over those last 5 starts from 3.36 to 3.99. In 21 starts, he's pitched 119 2/3 innings, allowing 115 hits, 54 runs, 53 earned, 19 HR, and 24 BB, with 111 K's. His WHIP has been rising as well as the ERA, and is now a still-solid 1.162, but it was 1.056 in his first 12 starts. He's still 8th in the league in BB, and 10th in K/BB ratio, but he's also tied for 4th in the league for most HRs allowed, and tied for 6th with his 9 losses.
Against the Red Sox, Nestor has started 5 games and relieved in 6 others. He's 2-0 against them, but his ERA is an uncomforably high 4.89. In 35 innings, he's allowed 35 hits, 19 runs, all earned, 8 HR (a huge HR rate against them), 11 BB and struck out 42. His WHIP against them isn't bad, 1.257, but as you might guess from the HR rate, the Sox' team quadruple slash line reveals the problem: .239/.295/.478/.774. His last game against the Sox was at the Stadium in July, and it was a beauty that got ruined by Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle coughing up a 2 run HR each, Holmes in the 9th to blow the save, and Kahnle in the 10th to loss the game. Nestor himself went 6 strong innings, allowing just 3 hits, 1 run (a solo HR to Gonzalez in the 5th), walked just 1 and struck out 8. It's only good start he's had in his last 4 outings, and it should've been a big win for hm, and would've won that series, possibly breaking the downhill slide this team's been on since mid-June.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 26, 2024 15:21:52 GMT -5
Yankees lineup vs Bello:
1. Verdugo (RF) is 2-3 with a double, a HR, and 3 RBI
2. Soto (RF) is 1-3 with a double and a K
3. Judge (DH) is 2-9 with a double, 3 BB and 3 K
4. Wells (C) has never faced Bello
5. Torres (2B) is 6-16 with 2 doubles, 1 RBI, 1 BB and 4 K
6. Rice (1B) has never faced Bello
7. Volpe (SS) is 3-8 with a double and 2 K's
8. Grisham (CF) has never faced Bello
9. Cabrera is 2-13 with a double and 2 K
On the bench: LeMajieu (3B) is 2-6 with 1 RBI
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Red Sox lineup vs. Cortes
1. Duran (CF) is 1-4 with 1 K
2. Refsnyder (RF) is 6-13 with 2 doubles, and 1 K
3. Wong (C) is 1-6 with a double, 1 RBI, and 2 K
4. Devers (3B) is 3-14 with 1 double, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB and 8 K
5. O'Neill (LF) is 0-4 with 1 BB and 2 K
6. Yoshida (DH) is 0-2 with a K
7. Gonzales (1B) is 2-2 with a double and a solo HR
8. Rafaela (SS) is 0-2 with a K
9. Westbrook (2B) has never faced Cortes
On the bench: McGuire is 1-4 with 2 K; Smith is 1-3 for a double and a K
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Post by kaybli on Jul 26, 2024 15:22:30 GMT -5
The merry-go-round at leadoff continues. Now its Verdugo.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 26, 2024 15:22:43 GMT -5
Yesterday, The Yanks and Red Sox had the night off. The Rays pounded out 16 hits and 13 runs against Chris Bassitt and 4 relievers while Taj Bradley threw another great game: just 2 hits and 1 BB with 7 K's in 6 scoreless innings, and the Rays blew out the Jays, 13-0. Bradley's win moved him to 6-4 on the year. Brandon Lowe had 4 hits including his 12th HR, Isaac Paredes knocked in 4 and Alex Jackson drove in 3. The win was the Rays 8th in 12 games, and the loss was their 6th in the last 9 games. In Miami, for a change, it was the Orioles who blew a big lead, 6-0 after 4 innings as the Marlins rallied for 2 in the 8th and 3 in the 9th to tie it at 6, but the O's scored their ghost runner in the 11th and kept the Marlins from doing the same in a 7-6 win. Colton Cowser hit a 3-run HR in the 3rd to make it 5-0 and Ryan Mouncastle drive in ghost runner Jordan Westburg with a 2 out single in the 10th for the game winner. Yennier Cano came on in relief in the 9th to get the final out after Craig Kimbrel allowed 3 runs to blow his 6th save of the season, and Cionel Perez pitched a 1-2-3 10th for his 2nd save. The win broke a 3-game losing streak for the O's.
Going into tonight's games, the Yanks are 2 games behind the O's, 4 1/2 ahead of the Yanks, 7 1/2 ahead of the Rays, and 13 ahead of the Jays.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 26, 2024 15:24:24 GMT -5
The merry-go-round at leadoff continues. Now its Verdugo. Just beat you in, kaybli, posting both lineups right about this post.  |
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 26, 2024 15:24:49 GMT -5
Elsewhere in the AL East tonight, the Rays are back home to face the start a 3-game series against the Reds at 6:50 pm. Shane Baz (0-1, 3.95) makes his 4th start since coming off the IL, hoping to get through 5 innings for just the 2nd time. Nick Lodolo (8-3, 3.54 ERA) starts for the Reds; he's pitched poorly in his 3 starts since coming off the IL with an ERA over 6.00 in 14 2/3 innings. The O's are back in Camden Yards to host a 3-game series against the Padres starting at 7:05 pm. Big righty Grayson Rodrigues (12-4, 3.83) and tied for the AL lead in wins starts for the Orioles, rookie Adam Mazur brings a terrible 1-3, 7.84 ERA record into the game; he's been even worse the last 3 games, allowing 13 ER in 13 2/3 innings. At 7:07 pm at Rogers Centre, the Jays start a 3-game series against the Rangers. Yusei Kikuchi, 4-9 with an ERA of 4.54, starts for the Jays. He's pitched poorly in his last 5 starts, 0-2 with an ERA of 6.18. Ex-Yankee Andrew Heaney (4-10, 3.60 ERA) goes for the Rangers; he's pitched very well in his last 5: 2-2 with an ERA under 2.00.
And, at 7:07 pm this evening at Fenway, it's Cortes vs. Bello. Side note: Randy Arozarena won't be able to kick around the Yankees as much anymore, the Rays have traded him to the Mariners for two prospects, starting pitcher Brody Hopkins, who Longerhagen at Fangraphs has as the #7 Mariners prospect and compares him to Tanner Houck, and young outfield prospect Aidan Smith, a "tools goof" centerfielder who's 20 years old at A ball and hitting well there. Longerhagen has him at #21 in the M's system. He has plus power, plus speed and the ability to play center, but his contact tool is graded as 20 now, 40 future. His K rate is slightly high, but he does draws walks and steals bases; he's 28-5 SB/CS. If the Rays like him, i wouldn't bet against their scouts, they seem to be right on prospects they trade for way too often for it to be luck. Oh, and the Rays also get a player to be named lated, whom I'm sure will never turn into Tyler Glasnow, or somethiing.
OK, heading to do other things for a while, see you back for the game thread in about 2 1/2 hours.
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Post by kaybli on Jul 26, 2024 15:25:03 GMT -5
The merry-go-round at leadoff continues. Now its Verdugo. Just beat you in, kaybli, posting both lineups right about this post. They don't call you qwik for nothing! |
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Post by donniebaseball23 on Jul 26, 2024 15:28:41 GMT -5
The merry-go-round at leadoff continues. Now its Verdugo. I'm getting dizzy reading these lineups every day.  |
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Post by donniebaseball23 on Jul 26, 2024 15:32:16 GMT -5
The Sawks have allowed 49 runs in 6 games since the AS break and Bello has a 5.27 ERA on the season and a ghastly 6.41 in his last 5 starts. Maybe we actually hit a little tonight?
Probably not.
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Post by fwclipper51 on Jul 26, 2024 15:32:53 GMT -5
Will the Yankees face Paxton this weekend?
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 26, 2024 15:35:54 GMT -5
Will the Yankees face Paxton this weekend? They might, I suppose, if they want to bump back Houck or Crawford or both. Not sure why they'd want to...just to get another lefty in against the Yanks, who struggle against lefties? |
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 26, 2024 15:41:05 GMT -5
O's traded Austin Hays for Seranthony Dominguez and centerfield glove Cristian Pache.
The Mets DFAed pitcher Adrian Houser, who just pitched the final inning of the 12-2 rout of the Yankees on Wednesday.
Yanks are almost always in radio silence mode until the dealine, but I'm hearing nothing from them right now. So, which is it, "The prices were too high" or overpaying for the 3rd best hitter/reliever on the market. We will soon know....
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