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Post by laurenfrances on Jul 30, 2024 16:08:06 GMT -5
With Phillies getting slaughtered last night, they will be out for bear.
Alex Verdugo (L) LF
Juan Soto (L) RF
Aaron Judge (R) DH
Austin Wells (L) C
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 3B
Gleyber Torres (R) 2B
Ben Rice (L) 1B
Anthony Volpe (R) SS
Trent Grisham (L) CF
Kyle Schwarber (L) DH
Trea Turner (R) SS
Bryce Harper (L) 1B
Alec Bohm (R) 3B
Brandon Marsh (L) CF
J.T. Realmuto (R) C
Nick Castellanos (R) RF
Bryson Stott (L) 2B
Austin Hays (R) LF
Aaron Nola
RHP
11-4, 3.44 ERA, 126 SO
Will Warren
RHP
0-0, -.-- ERA, 0 SO
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Post by chiyankee on Jul 30, 2024 16:09:25 GMT -5
Big time test for Warren in his debut.
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Post by noetsi on Jul 30, 2024 16:10:33 GMT -5
I am actually going to try to watch (or at least listen to) this game. Not sure my MLB account even works  |
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Post by donniebaseball23 on Jul 30, 2024 16:11:16 GMT -5
Like I said in the Trade Deadline thread, Re: Warren:
Hmmmmm...Warren. Well regarded coming into this year, but he's been getting bombed in Scranton (6.11 ERA, 18 HR in 95.2 IP), but he does have a high K rate (10.8/9IP), so maybe the unfamiliarity and his K-stuff can keep the Phils at bay tonight.
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Post by chiyankee on Jul 30, 2024 16:30:48 GMT -5
Like I said in the Trade Deadline thread, Re: Warren: Hmmmmm...Warren. Well regarded coming into this year, but he's been getting bombed in Scranton (6.11 ERA, 18 HR in 95.2 IP), but he does have a high K rate (10.8/9IP), so maybe the unfamiliarity and his K-stuff can keep the Phils at bay tonight. Warren has pitched much better in July. IF he can somehow go 5 innings tonight, that would probably be considered a success. |
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 30, 2024 16:54:09 GMT -5
Tonight, the Phils start their solid #2 starter Aaron Nola, looking to even the series at a game apiece. Drafted with the 7th pick of the first roound by the Phillies in 2014, after 3 years as an ace at LSU, the Phillies put the 21 year old Nola right into high-A ball after the draft, and after six starts there, they promoted him to AA to finish out the season. He pitched very well at both levels, so the Phils put him back in AA to start 2015, and after 12 outstanding starts there, they advanced him to AAA. He encoutered more resistance at AAA, but after just 6 starts in Reading, the Phils brought him to the majors after the All-Star Break, and he stayed in the Phils rotation the rest of the season, going 6-2 with a 3.58 ERA in 13 starts. He got off to a great start in 2016, going 5-4 with a 2.65 ERA in his 1st 12 starts, but things went quickly downhill. He was pummelled regularly over the next seven weeks, going 1-5 with a 9.82 ERA in 8 starts. The Phils gave him essentially a two-week vacation to try to straighten him out, but put on the DL with an elbow strain just 5 days later. two weeks after that, the Phillies found out he had low-grade strains and sprains in his elbow, and to prevent more extensive damage, they were shutting him down for the season.
He opened 2017 in the Phillies rotation, but after three starts, the Phils put him on the DL with a lower back strain. After two rehab starts in AAA, he came back to the Phillies in late May and stayed healthy enough to finish the season in the rotation, going 10-11 with a 3.43 ERA. In 2018, he broke through as a top of the rotation starter, going 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA and finishing 3rd in the Cy Young voting. Over the next 5 seasons, his effectiveness varied, 3 good seasons with a couple of mediocre ones. He was 49-43 with an ERA of 3.97 from 2019 through 2023. This year, the Braves beat him up in his first start, and then he went on a long hot streak, going 8-1 with a 2.25 ERA in 12 starts. At that point, he was 8-2 on the season with a 2.77 ERA and seemed certain to draw at least some downballot Cy Young Votes. But the Red Sox smacked him around in mid-June, beginning and up and down stretch that has persisted to his most recent starts. In those eight games, he's 3-2 with a 4.66 ERA. Nola is still having a very good year overall, 11-4, 3.44 ERA. In 21 starts, he's thrown 130 2/3 innings, allowing 108 hits, 53 runs, 50 earned, 18 HR and 31 BB, and has struck out 126. His WHIP on the season is an excellent 1.064, good for 6th in the NL. He's also among the leaders in wins (2nd), fewest hits per 9 innings (7th), fewest BB per 9 (also 7th), strikeouts (9th), K/BB ratio (9th) and innings pitched, (3rd). He still seems likely to get a Cy Young downballot vote or two.
Nola has pitched well against the Yanks; this is his 5th start against them. He's just 1-2, but with a 2.88 ERA. In 25 innings, he's allowed 20 hits, 8 runs, all earned, 3 HR, just 3 BB with 31 K's. His WHIP against the Yanks is an elite 0.92, and their team quadruple slash line against him is .217/.242/.380/.623. He was so-so in his last start against them; his 2nd start of last season. Nola went 6 innings, gave up 7 hits, 3 runs (earved), with 1 BB and 5 K's, and took the loss in a 4-2 Yankee win at the Stadium.
Repertoire: Nola is a 5-pitch righty: 4-seamer, sinker, change, cutter and a knuckle curve, which he uses more than any of his other pitches, though he mixes them thoroughly. So far this season, he's using the 4-seamer and change a little more and the sinker and cutter a bit less that last year. The curve has slightly better than average two plane break down and glove side, the 4-seam has average rise and significantly better than average "run". The sinker gets less drop but more "tail" than average. The change gets pretty much average sink and tail, and the cutter gets average drop, but much less break glove-side than avereage. In run values, the 4-seamer and curve are pretty big plusses, the sinker is a small plus, and the cutter and change are significant minuses, which is why he uses them less than the other 3 pitches. His FB velocity is well below average, but the spin on the FB and curve are slightly above average, He's always been top 10% in extension, which makes his pitches play up. His hard hit and barrel rates are below average, his chase rate is near-elite, but his swinging strike rate is slightly below average. His line drive and groundball rates are slightly above average, the flyball rate is below average, and the popup rate is slightly below average. His strand rate is better than average, his BABIP is about 20 points below league average, but his 3rd luck factor, HR per flyball is somewhat above average. Taken all together, he's been a bit lucky this season, so his ERA estimators think his ERA should be about 1/2 run higher. His called strike rate is a bit above average and so is his CSW and his K-BB%, at least among 68 qualified MLB starters. The pitch mix this season to date: curve 79 about 33%, 4-seamer averaging 92 about 26%, sinker 91-2 about 21%, change 85-6 about 10%, and cutter 87-8 about 10%
Playing the name game: Of first name Aarons, there are 40. Of these, Nola has the most pitching bWAR, but the Yankee Captain, Aaron Judge, has the most bWAR of any player, position or pitcher. Of course, Judge's superb career is but a fraction of the career of the greatest Aaron of all, Inner Circle Hall of Famer Hank Aaron, one of the top 10-20 players in major league history, smasher of Babe Ruth's career HR record, and top 10 all time in WAR, games played, at bats, runs, hits, HR, and yes, GIDP, and still the all-time MLB leader in total bases and RBI. Of Nolas, there are just two, Aaron and his brother, catcher Austin, and Aaron has had the much better career. Austin's bat apparently died on him last season, and he's floundering at AAA this year for the Royals, batting .163 in just over 100 PA.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 30, 2024 16:57:18 GMT -5
Gerrit Cole was scratched from his start with "general body fatigue"?!? (Yankee code for a serious injury that they don't want to reveal before the deadline?? Maybe...maybe not, Cole spoke to the media and said his elbow is OK...) Will Warren, the current Yankees top pitching prospect is being called up from AAA, where he's having a dreadful season, 5-5 with a 6.68 ERA, 99 hits, 18 HR and 35 BB in 95 2/3 innings. He does have 115 strikeouts, and had pitched very well in his last 4 starts at Scranton: 21 2/3 innings, 14 hits, 9 runs, 7 earned, 2 HR, 6 BB and 30 K's. Despite the very poor pitching earlier, Warren is currently the #3 prospect in the organization at Fangraphs, and Longerhagen did a prospect update on every pitcher in his top 100 a few days ago, and had this to say about Warren: "The next several pitchers (the Twins’ David Festa, the Yankees’ Will Warren, the Cardinals’ Quinn Mathews, the Yankees’ Chase Hampton, the White Sox’ Drew Thorpe, the Reds’ Rhett Lowder, the White Sox’ Jairo Iriarte) are all plug-and-play no. 4 starters who are proximate to the big leagues. Warren could take a turn in the Yankees rotation tomorrow and be good." The bit about Thorpe is rather odd, as he's already in the White Sox' rotation, and has been for basically seven weeks now. Thorpe was doing great until the Mariners hammered him for 8 earned runs in just 2/3 of an inning in his last start, 3-1 with an ERA just over 3.00. Needless to say (Oh, yean? Then why are you saying it?), Warren has never faced the Phillies. Or anyone else in the majors.
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Post by fwclipper51 on Jul 30, 2024 16:58:15 GMT -5
From MLB Rumors
Yankees Scratch Gerrit Cole With Body Fatigue, To Select Will Warren
By Anthony Franco | July 30, 2024 at 2:59pm CDT
The Yankees scratched Gerrit Cole from tonight’s scheduled start against the Phillies due to general body fatigue. Well-regarded pitching prospect Will Warren is getting the call for a spot start in what’ll be his major league debut. The Yankees will need to select him onto the 40-man roster, which has 2 vacancies pending their deadline activity.
There’s no indication this is anything more than a day-to-day issue. Yet it’s at least worth monitoring after Cole missed the 1st half of the season with elbow inflammation. Cole has made 7 starts since being reinstated in the middle of June. He owns an uncharacteristic 5.40 ERA thanks largely to 9 HRs allowed. If the Yankees are at all concerned about Cole’s health, it could impact their approach to the deadline over the next 2 hours. They’ve already been tied to starting pitchers, including to Jack Flaherty at the top of the market. There are rumblings the Yankees could even add an impact starter like Flaherty and look to flip Nestor Cortes. Warren, 25, is a former 8th-round pick who has developed into one of New York’s top prospects. He ranks 7th among Yankees farmhands at Baseball America. Warren’s arsenal is headlined by his mid-90s fastball and potential plus slider. He has a shot to be a mid-rotation starter. The Southeastern Louisiana product has started 20 times in Scranton. His 6.11 ERA is disappointing, but Warren has an impressive 27.1% strikeout rate against a manageable 8.2% walk percentage.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 30, 2024 16:58:50 GMT -5
Yankees lineup vs Nola:
1. Verdugo (LF) is 0-3 with 3 BB, 1 K and 1 GIDP
2. Soto (RF) is 9-33 with 2 doubles, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 14 BB (2 IBB) and 9 K.
3. Judge (DH) is 2-6 with 2 K
4. Wells (C) has never faced Nola
5. Chisholm (CF) is 2-15 with 9 K's (!!) and 1 HBP
6. Torres (2B) is 2-12 with 2 RBI, 6 K and 1 GIDP
7. Rice (1B) has never faced Nola
8. Volpe (SS) is 0-2 with 1 K
9. Grisham (CF) is 0-4 with 2 K
On the bench: LeMahieu is 4-12, with 1 double and 1 K; Stanton is 5-16 with 1 double, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB and 5 K; Cabrera is 1-2 with a double and a BB, and pitcher Stroman is 0-2 with 2 K's.
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Phillies lineup vs. Warren...I'll just give the lineup, this is his MLB debut...
1. Schwarber (DH)
2. Turner (SS)
3. Harper (1B
4. Bohm (3B)
5. Marsh (CF)
6. Realmuto (C)
7. Castellanos (RF)
8. Stott (SS)
9. Hays (LF)
On the bench: (empty plains vista, winds blowing hard over the flat land, wolf howling in the distance...)
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 30, 2024 17:15:19 GMT -5
Yesterday, the Yanks went up against Philly ace Zack Wheeler, and the ace didn't ace. Yanks got 3 early solo HRs against him, then, after the Phils got two back, broke it open in the 5th on a key 2-run double by Soto with the bases loaded, followed by a crushing 2-run triple by Wells later in the inning. Yanks kept tacking on runs against the weaker Philly relievers with Judge and Chisholm each hitting their 2nd HR of the game, and the Yanks steamrolled their way to 14-4 rout.
In other AL East games, the Orioles and Jays split a day/night doubleheader at Camden Yards. The O's walloped the Jays 11-5 in the opener, forcing Jays' starter Yariel Rodriguez out of the game in just 2/3 of an inning. He had no command, walking 4 of the 9 batters he faced, and was finally taken out after hitting James McCann with the bases loaded, forcing in the 4th run. Anthony Santander remained white hot, belting his 30th HR, scoring 2 and knocking in two. Mountcast had a 2-run single and his 13th HR of the season to knock in 3. Zack Eflin wasn't brilliant, but he was his usual no-walks self, and that's all the O's need from him: 6 1/3 innings, 10 hits, 3 runs, 0 BB and 7 K. In the nightcap, the O's Cade Povich was recalled from AAA only to take another beating before the O's traded for Miami's Trevor Rogers to kick Povich back to the minors. He gave up 7 hits and 6 runs in 4 2/3 innings, but because 3 of the runs were unearned, his ERA didn't change much, now at 6.27. Vlad Guerrero, Jr., happy that he's not being traded, continued his own white-hot streak by hitting his 19th HR among 4 hits, scoring 2 runs and knocking in 3. George Springer had a hit and 3 walks, and scored twice. The Jays fill-in starter, Bowden Francis, wasn't brilliant either, giving up two HRs and 6 hits in 5 2/3 for 3 runs, but the Jays' attack gave him enough rope to win his 4th game against 2 losses. Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg each had a HR and 2 RBI for the Orioles. Cowser got his 15th of the season, and Westburg his 18th. The 2nd game defeat was the O's 6th in 9 games, and they're 4-11 in their last 15. At Fenway, the Red Sox knocked out the Mariners' excellent starter Logan Gilbert with a ferocious 7 run 3rd inning, including a 2-run HR by Yoshida, and RBI doubles by O'Neill, Smith and Wong, and built up a lead of 14-3 after six innings. The M's got 4 in the 8th, but that was as close as the got as the Sox won easily, 14-7. Nick Pivetta threw 6 2/3 solid innings for his 5th win of the season, allowing 6 hits and 3 runs whilie striking out 10. Seven Sox' hitters had at least 2 hits each, Yoshida had 3 and knocked in 4, Smith added a solo HR to his RBI double, and Romy Gonzales alos hit a 2-run HR. The Rays had the day off.
Going into today's games, the Yanks are just 1/2 game back of the Orioles for 1st in the East, 5 1/2 up on the Sox, 8 up on the Rays and 12 1/2 up on the Jays. They still hold the first Wild Card, 5 1/2 ahead of the Sox, who are 1 game behind the 3rd Wild Card, currently held by the Royals.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 30, 2024 17:17:31 GMT -5
Elsewhere in the AL East today...the Blue Jays and O's play the 3rd of 4 games in Baltimore at 6:40 pm. Supposedly on the trading block Chris Bassitt (8-9, 3.78 ERA) is apparently off the block; he starts for the Jays tonight, looking to put and end to a bad run in his last four starts: 15 ER allowed in 21 2/3 innings. The O's send their ace Corbin Burnes (10-4, 2.45 ERA) to the mound, he's currently 2nd in the AL in ERA behind only Tarik Skubal. The Rays start a 2-game series against the MAAArlins at 6:50 pm at the CraptasticDome™. The frequently injured and rarely effective Edward Cabrera (1-3 with a 7.04 ERA in 9 starts this year) starts for Miami; he's gotten hammered in only 1 of his last 4 starts, but still hasn't thrown a good one yet. Jeffrey Springs, who was outstanding for the Rays in 2022, and was off to an even better start last year, but blew out his UCL and had to have Tommy John surgery in April, finally returns after his 15 month recovery and rehab to make his first start of the season for Tampa. If you're wondering why the Rays traded Zack Eflin to the O's, now you know. The Red Sox and Mariners continue their series at Fenway. The Mariner go with their ace, Luis Castillo (8-10, 3.38 ERA). Castillo has been outstanding his last 4 starts: 2-1 with an ERA of 1.40, just 1 HR allowed in 25 innings. The Sox go with an old freiend of theirs and ours, James Paxton, who pitched his way off a Dodgers team with multiple big injuries to key starters. Paxton is 8-2 on the season with a 4.42 ERA, but he's been terrible his last 4 starts: 1-1 with an ERA of 8.66, 25 hits and 12 BB in 17 2/3 innings.
And, at 6:40 pm this evening at Citizen's Bank Ballpark, it's Warren vs. Nola. With the deadline passed, I go to make dinner for myself. See you back here in 20 minutes for the game.
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Post by noetsi on Jul 30, 2024 17:39:24 GMT -5
If you were waiting for a major move by Cashman you wasted your time making dinner. He is not a risk taker. |
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 30, 2024 17:40:43 GMT -5
Phillies take the field; Nola starting his warmups.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 30, 2024 17:43:08 GMT -5
Verdugo steps to the plate. Game underway...
Takes a 94 FB waist high, just outside, 1-0
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Post by qwik3457bb on Jul 30, 2024 17:44:30 GMT -5
Verdugo...
A 93 FB is outside, a bit lower, 2-0
Sinker above middle, hit to deep left center, off the top of the wall, rebounces away for a leadoff double.
Yanks ask the umps for a crew review, but it stays a double.
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