|
|
Post by kaybli on Aug 20, 2024 17:36:29 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 20, 2024 17:40:26 GMT -5
The Yanks come back home after a disappointing series in which they lost 2 of 3 and getting shut down cold by a Tigers pitching staff that pitched better than its previous records, except for Skubal and 1 or 2 relievers. After a day off, the Guardians come to the Bronx to play the Yanks. Cleveland comes into this series leading the Central by 2 games, and tied with the Brewers, 1/2 game back of the O's, the Yanks, the Dodgers for 2nd best record in MLB, and 1 game behind the Phils for the best record.
The Indians have been schizophrenic the last two months. They first hit their season high of 25 games over .500 in late June after a 6 game win streak. They went 8-14 over their next 22 games to drop to 19 games over .500. After that, they won 8 of 10, culminating with a 5-game win streak to get back to 25 over. After that, they lost 7 in a row, to drop back to 18 over. They followed that with a 5-game win streak to get back to 23 over, but they got swept over the weeked by the Brewers to get to where they are now: 72-52. Overall, the Guardians have lost 10 of 15. The Yanks played them in Cleveland early in the season, and came within an eyelash of sweeping them: The took the first two games, then rallied in the 9th to tie the 3rd game at 5, scored 2 in the 10th, and watched in horror as Caleb Ferguso gave up two hits and two walks, letting 3 runs score in the first of several key bad performances by him before the Yanks traded him to Houston at the deadline.
The Indians have an average offense: 7th in the AL in runs, 7th in HR, 7th in OPS. They are one of the best basestealing teams in the AL, 3rd with 110 steals, with a good success rate: 77%, but they also grounded into quite a few DPs. Not as many as the Yanks, but they're 4th in the AL in that category, just 14 behind the Yanks, despite stealing twice as many bases. The Indians have well below average starting pitching. They have multiple injuries in their rotation (Allen, McKenzie, Carrasco), but maybe they're better off, all three of those guys were having bad seasons anyway. They're pulling in starters from all over the place to fill in: calling back Gavin Williams from AAA about two months ago, trading for Alex Cobb (who just went back on the IL with a broken fingernail), getting former Tiger Matthew Boyd back from TJ surgery just a week or two ago. The starter matchups heavily favor the Yanks in this series, at least on paper. The teams are more or less evenly matched, defensively, both team DRS and team Fielding Run Value show them next to each other, 7th and 8th in MLB. UZR sees Cleveland as 4th best, and the Yanks 10th best. DER also says the Guardians are better, .708 to .703. (4th in the AL vs. 9th; earlier in the season, the Yanks were near the top of the AL).
Where the Indians are winning their division and game after game is in their superb bullpen. While the Yanks' bullpen is falling apart almost daily, the Indians bullpen is 5-6 strong relievers deep, headed by the closer who is probably the most dominant and consistent in MLB right now: Emmanuel Clase. They're also getting great seasons from Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith and Tim Herrin. So deep is their pen that even a good reliever like Nick Sandlin is just their 6th option right now, and the alleged backup closer, ex-Royals closer Scott Barlow is almost an afterthought. Early in the season, the Yankee pen appeared to be just as good or nearly so. But the Indians pen leads the AL in ERA at 2.67, a spectacular number for a combined pen, and the WHIP is also spectacular at 1.057. Meanwhile, due to the collapse of almost every reliever in the Yankee pen, their ERA has dropped to 4th at 3.71, and the Yankee bullpen WHIP has fallen to 1.266, 10th in the AL. So the Yanks had better beat up on the suspect Guardians' rotation if they expect to win this series.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 20, 2024 17:43:23 GMT -5
In the series opener, the Guardians send veteran lefty Matthew Boyd to the mound. Drafted by the Blue Jays in the 6th round in 2013, he was sent by the Jays first to low-A then high-A that year, and he pitched in 8 games and made 5 starts, throwing 24 innings. In 2014, he opened again at high-A, threw 16 outstanding starts there, so they promoted him to AA, where he got hammered in 10 starts. Back at AA to start 2015, he made a dozen fantastic starts, going 6-1 with an ERA of 1.10, pitching at least 7 innings in the last 5 of them. He was promoted to AAA, and made two good starts there. So the Jays called him up the majors in late June, and after a poor start against the Rangers, the Red Sox annihilated him: 6 hits, 2 HR and 7 ER without getting an out. Back to AAA he went. He threw 4 more good starts there, and then at the trade deadline, the Jays dealt Boyd to the Tigers along with Daniel Norris and another pitching prospect for big lefty starter David Price.
He made one brief start for the Tigers at AAA, and Detroit called him back to the majors to finish the season. His first start went well, 7 innings of 1-run ball for a win against the Royals, but the rest of the season went horribly: 0-4 in his last 9 starts with an ERA of 7.42. His MLB ERA on that season was 7.53. In 2016, he bounced up and down a couple of times from AAA, but was put in the Tigers rotation for good right around the All-Star Break. His work in the majors was a moderate success: 6-5 with a 4.53 ERA in 18 starts and 97 1/3 innings. He opened 2017 in the major league rotation but pitched poorly enough in 11 starts (2-5, 5.69 ERA) that the Tigers sent him back to AAA to straighten his game out. He pitched 8 good starts there, so the Tigers called him back and he stayed in rotation the rest of the way, but it didn't go much better 15 starts, 4-6, 4.97 ERA. They put him the rotation the whole way in 2018 and 2019 with mediocre results: 9-13, 4.32 ERA in 2018; 9-12, 4.56 ERA in 2019. In 2020, he was in rotation the whole, shortened, COVID season with brutal results, leading the league in losses, earned runs allowed and HR allowed, going 3-7 with an ERA of 6.71.
In 2021, Boyd finally seemed to be making headway. Just 3-6 in his first 12 starts, but his ERA was a solid 3.56. In mid-June he had to leave a start early. A few days later, Boyd was put on the IL with a triceps strain in his pitching arm, eventually getting moved to the 60-day IL. He returned in August to make 3 rehab starts to build his pitchcount. They called him up in late-August, he made two more poor starts, and they shut him down for the year. At the end of the season, with 2 years of team control left, they let Boyd go free agent, and he signed with the Giants. He never pitched for San Francisco, his season got derailied by forearm flexor tendon surgery, and at the deadline, when he was ready to start rehab, the Giants traded him to the Mariners with catcher Curt Casali for two prospects who haven't made it to the majors yet. Boyd rehabbed at AAA with 6 relief appearances, and the Mariners called him up for the stretch drive. He pitched very well in relief, 2-0 in 10 games with a 1.35 ERA, he was unscored on in 9 of the 10, but the Mariners let him go free agent after the season, and signed back with the Tigers. He made 15 starts for Detroit, going 5-5 with a 5.43 ERA, before another injury ruined another season. This time it was a torn UCL and Tommy John surgery, and he was out for the rest of 2023, and the first half of this season.
Desperate for live bodies for their rotation, the Guardians signed him in late June, let him finish his TJ rehab in their farm system, a start in rookie ball, 2 in AA, 2 more in AAA, and they finally called him back to the majors a week ago to make his first start in over a year against the Cubs. He pitch an excellent 5 1/3 innings, allowing 3 hits, 1 run, 0 BB and striking out 6. So his ERA and WHIP after 1 start are a brilliant 1.69 and 0.56. Boyd's career record against the Yanks is quite poor: in 5 starts, he's 1-3 with an ERA of 5.19. In 26 innings, he's allowed 25 hits, 19 runs, 15 earned 5 HR and 12 BB, while striking out 27. His WHIP against the Yanks is 1.423, and their team quadruple slash line against him is .243/.316/.456/.773. The caveat here is the last time he pitched against the Yanks was 2019. I'm not sure how relevant 5-year-old data is vs. Boyd, especially with multiple serious arm injuries in between. He pitched 2 games against them in 2019, a brilliant start with a career-high 13 K's in 6 1/3 innings for a no-decision in April, and a mediocre start in a loss to the Yanks back home in Detroit going 5 innings, giving up 3 hits, but 2 HR, 4 runs, 2 earned and striking out just 3 while walking 4.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 20, 2024 17:45:50 GMT -5
Repertoire: Boyd has one game of relevant info available, so all that follows here has large error bars. Boyd is a 5-pitch lefty: 4-seamer, slider, change, sinker and curve. None of the five pitches has unusual vertical break, but the FB gets a lot more run than average, the slider gets less break in on righties than average, and the change gete more tail than average. The FB and sinker had largere plus run value in the 1st start, the curve and change had smaller plus value and the slider was a small minus. FB velo is way below average, FB spin is elite, curve spin is plus, extension is average. Batted ball data after one start is almost silly, but he gave up more line drives and flyballs than average, no popups, no HR. His hard hit rate was high, but 0 barrels. Highish swinging strike rate and called strike rate and thereore, high CSW in his first start. Low BABIP, low strand rate. ERA is about where it should be for the 1st start, as if you can allow fractions of a run to make up the difference.
Playing the name game: Over 100 Matts and Matthews in MLB history, no Hall of Famers, but several very good hitters and few good pitchers hitters. On the hitting side long-time Giants/D'backs 3rd baseman Matt Williams edges out Rockies/Cards OF Matt Holliday for most bWAR. Matt Cain, who was in the rotation of all three Giants' title-winning teams from 2010 through 2014, leads in pitcher bWAR. Not many players in MLB history with last name Boyd, less than 10. Outfielder Bob Boyd, who played in the Negro American League for a couple of seasons before spending 11 years in MLB playing for the White Sox, the Orioles, the KC Atheltics and the Milwaukee Braves, and retired with a liftime BAVG on .296 in just over 2000 AB is the best hitter; the famously skinny Dennis "Oil Can" Boyd, who won 15 games for the Red Sox and piled up over 6 pitching WAR in 1985 and won 16 more in 1986 is the best of the pitchers, although Matthew still has time to pass the Oil Can if he turn in 3-4 good seasons from here.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 20, 2024 17:47:33 GMT -5
Luis Gil starts for the Yanks. He had nothing and got hit hard by the White Sox of all teams in his last start. The new slider, which had turned his season around the four starts before that one, vanished on him. Not only was the break not sharp, but he was hanging them the entire time he was in the game, with the exception of one back leg slider he threw for a K against a lefty late in that start. Gil is 12-6 on the season with a 3.25 ERA in 23 starts. In 121 2/3 innings, he's allowed 80 hits, 45 runs, 44 earned, 11 HR, 60 BB and has struck out 141. His WHIP for the season is a still solid 1.151. His stats tend to extremes: Gil is tied for 6th in wins, 7th in winning percentage, and if he had enough innings to qualify, he'd be 10th in ERA, 2nd in fewest hits per 9 innings, 4th in K's per 9, 6th in fewest HR per 9, but leads the league in walks allowed, and would have the highest BB per 9.
Gil has made 1 start against the Indians before, the last of his 6 starts for the Yanks in 2021. He took his only loss that season, given up 3 runs (2 earned) on 3 hits, 4 BB and a HR in just 4 1/3 innings while striking out 6 in 11-3 rout of the Yankeed by the then Indians at the Stadium in late September. His ERA against Cleveland is 4.15 and his WHIP against them is 1.615. Their team quadruple slash line against Gil in just 21 PA is .188/.381/.438/.819.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 20, 2024 17:49:25 GMT -5
Yankees' lineup vs. Boyd...only 5 Yankees on the current roster have faced Boyd before:
1. Torres (2B) is 1-6 with 3 K
2. Soto (RF) has never faced Boyd
3. Judge (CF) is 1-3 with 1 RBI and 5 BB
4. Stanton (DH) has never faced Boyd
5. Verdugo (LF) is 1-3
6. Trevino (C) is 1-2 with 1 RBI
7. Volpe (SS) has never faced Boyd
8. LeMahieu (1B) is 1-6 with 1 double and 1 K
9. Peraza (3B) has never faced Boyd
On the bench: None
==============
Guardians' lineup vs. Gil: only 3 players remain from the lineup that faced Gil in that one start 3 years ago. I'll include them with the Indians' lineup for tonight:
1. Kwan (LF)
2. Ramirez (3B) is 1-3 with 2 BB
3. J. Naylor (1B)
4. Brennan (DH)
5. Noel (RF)
6. Gimenez is 1-2 with a K
7. Schneemann (CF)
8. B. Naylor (C)
9. Rocchio (SS)
On the bench: Hedges is 0-2 with 1 K.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 20, 2024 17:50:27 GMT -5
Yesterday, the Yanks had the day off, but the other teams in the East saw action...in Toronto, the Reds broke open a 2-2 tie to score 4 on RBI doubles by Steer, France (2 runs) and Fraley, and coasted to a 6-3 win. Friedl had 3 hits, scored 2 and knocked in 1 for the Reds as well. Julian Aguilar gave up 2 runs in 4 innings in his first MLB start, but reliever Tony Santillan got 4 outs in the 5th and 6th to pick up the win, evening his record at 1-1 for the season. Kevin Gausman put the first two batters on base in the 6th, got charged for the first two runs of the inning and took the loss, dropping to 11-9. At Citifield, the Orioles rallied from down 3-0 to get a run in the 5th on a RBI grounder by Holliday and tied it in the 7th on a run-scoring balk and a solo HR by Urias, but the Mets got a walkoff HR with 1 out in the 9th from Francisco Alvarez, and won, 4-3. David Peterson pitched 6 strong innings for the Mets but faltered in the 7th, giving up the tying runs. Seranthony Dominguez surrendered the game-winner and took the loss, dropping to 3-3 on the year. Mets' closer Edwin Diaz pitched the scoreless 9th and got himself a win, raising his record to 4-1. The O's loss was their 3rd in 4 games and 9th in their last 15. In Houston, the Red Sox took leads of 2-0 and 4-2, but the Astros rallied for runs in the 6th, 7th and 9th to win 5-4. Singleton hit a sac fly in the 6th to make it 4-3, Dubon tied it in the 8th on a RBI single, and Yannier Diaz walked it off on his 14th HR on the year off of Kenley Jansen, who dropped to 3-2 on the year. Astros' closer Josh Hader pitched the scoreless 9th for the Astros and got the win, improving to 6-6. The loss was the Sox' 2nd straight, and 8th in their last 12 games. They're now 12-17 since the break. In Oakland, Joe Boyle shut out the Rays for 6 innings on 2 hits and 3 BB, while striking out 6, and 3 relievers pitched a hitless inning as the A's 2-hit Tampa 3-0. J.J. Bleday hit a 2-run HR in the 1st off of Rays' starter Taj Bradley, and Lawrence Butler hit a sac fly in the 5th to complete the scoring. Bradley pitched a quality start for the first time in 4 games but took the loss, dropping to 6-8. Boyle's win raised his record to 3-5 on the season. Fireballing closer 19th Miller got his 19th save. The loss broke a 3-game win streak for Tampa, who've now lost 8 of 13.
The entire East lost, allowing the Yanks to gain 1/2 game on everybody. Going into today's games, the Yanks are back up on the O's by 1/2 game, the Sox are 7 1/2 back, the Rays are 10 1/2 back, and the Jays are still 15 back.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 20, 2024 17:52:18 GMT -5
In other East games tonight: The Reds and Jays play the 2nd game of their series at Rogers Centre at 7:05 pm. Carson Speirs (4-4, 4.55 ERA) starts for the Reds; he's 0-2 with an ERA 8.78 in his last 3 starts. Jose Berrios (11-9, 3.85 ERA) goes for Toronto, he's pitched back-to-back excellent games of 1 run in 7 innings. At 7:10 pm at Citifield, the O's and Mets play the 2nd game of their series. Dean Kremer (5-9, 4.48 ERA) goes for Baltimore; he broke a 4-game personal losing streak with a good 6 innings for a win against the Nationals in his last start. Jose Quintna (6-8, 4.26 ERA) starts for the Mets; he's pitched poorly in his last 3 starts, 0-2 with an ERA of 5.74. At 8:10 pm at Minute Maid Park, the Red Sox and Astros play the 2nd game of their series. Nick Pivetta (5-8, 4.49 ERA) pitches for Boston; he's struggled in his last 4 starts, 1-2 with a 7.11 ERA. Ronel Blanco (9-6, 2.89) goes for Houston; he finally pitched a good game last time out, throwing 6 shutout innings at the Rays after 4 poor starts in a row. At 9:40 pm at the Oakland Coliseum, the Rays and Athletics play the 2nd game of that series. Shane Baz (0-2, 4.21 ERA) starts for Tampa, trying yet again for his 1st win in 2 years, he pitched 7 good innings against the Astros last time but took a tough 3-2 loss. Joey Estes (5-5, 4.72 ERA) throws for Oakland, He has 3 good starts and 2 poor ones in his last 5 games.
In 15 minutes or so at the Stadium, it's Boyd vs. Gil. See you then.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 20, 2024 18:03:27 GMT -5
1st harbinger of the fall/winter...the t'storms last night have given way to the cool evenings/nights of late August. First time in several months the game-time temperature will be under 70°, going down to 63-64 by game's end.
Also: sunset in the Metro are is now before 8:00, it'll be before 7:30 by the end of the month, and before 7 pm by mid-September.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 20, 2024 18:08:13 GMT -5
OK, Yanks taking the field. Gil to the mound to throw his final warmups. Let's hope he has the slider tonight; he's sure to need it.
Kwan about ready to step in.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 20, 2024 18:09:17 GMT -5
Kwan in the box...
Game underway, takes a FB down and in, ball 1.
|
|
|
|
Post by chiyankee on Aug 20, 2024 18:09:58 GMT -5
Just throw any left hander with a pulse against the Yankees and watch them over think things with the lineup.
|
|
|
|
Post by ill636 on Aug 20, 2024 18:11:04 GMT -5
Nice. Gil starts the game with a walk.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 20, 2024 18:11:10 GMT -5
Kwan takes a FB at the top, inner 3rd, 1-1
FB high on the outer 3rd, 2-1
FB 0% or 1% at the top, outer 3rd, called a ball, marginal, 3-1
FB misses outside near the top by an inch or two, that one is called, 0% on Gameday missed by 2 inches away; a makeup call?
FB near the top, fouled.
FB down and in again, ball 4. Leadoff walk for Kwan, bad start for Gil.
|
|
|
|
Post by chiyankee on Aug 20, 2024 18:11:41 GMT -5
Last guy on this team that you want to walk.
|
|
