|
|
Post by kaybli on Aug 30, 2024 15:18:33 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by chiyankee on Aug 30, 2024 15:46:15 GMT -5
The cupcake portion of the schedule is over, it's time for the Yankees to up their level of play.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 30, 2024 16:12:51 GMT -5
The Yankees go home to play a Wild Card contender, the Cardinals. St. Louis got off to a very slow start this year. After losing to the Brewers on May 11th, they were 15-24, in dead last in the NL Cental, 9 games behind Milwaukee, having then lost 7 in a row. They then ran off a hot streak, won 12 of 15 and were back at .500, 27-27. They played .500 ball for 20 games, and were at 37-37. Then they went on another nice run, 14-8 over their next 22, and got to their high-water mark so far this season at 48-42, 6 games over. They had climbed 2nd place, and were just 4 1/2 back of the Brewers, and it seemed like they might steal the division after all. The then slid downhill losing 20 of 32 and were 2 games under .500.
The Cards won last night, with ex-Yankee Sonny Gray beating the Padres and ex-Yankee Mike King, and are 7-5 since that 2nd slump, and come into this series back at even .500. The Cubs got hot, going 29-18 since July 3rd, and have climbed over the Reds, the Pirates and now even the Cards, pushing St. Louis into 3rd in the Central, 10 out of 1st and now 3 teams behind the Braves for the last NL Wild Card, 6 games behind Atlanta with just 28 to play.
What's gone right for the Cards? As with the Guardians team the Yankees just played, their best asset is their bullpen, headed by the best closer in the NL this season, Ryan Helsley, who already has 40 saves. They have 3 or 4 other solid relievers and they've combined for the 4th best bullpen ERA in the NL at 3.64. The bullpen has one weakess: they have the 3rd highest percentage of inherited runners scoring in the NL, at 37%. The defense is pretty good, 6th in the NL in DRS at +35 runs, 9th in Outs Above Average at +12 (even though that's translated into just +1 Run Above Average).That strong pen and decent defense has made them a .500 team, even thought their run differential is -60, and their Pythagoran record is 61-73, 12 games under.
The offense is weak. They hit for a respectable BAVG, but next to last in the NL in runs, 12th in HR, 12th in steals, 11th in BB, 9th in OBA, 12th in slugging and 12th in OPS. Their starting pitching is weak as well: 12th in the NL in ERA, 10th in WHIP, 8th in K's, 10th in K/9, 9th in K/BB ratio. The poster boy here is Miles Mikolas, who leads the team in starts and innings pitched and is 2nd in the league in fewest BB allowed per 9 innings, but has an ERA over 5.00, and is dead last among 30 qualified NL startes in K/9 innings at 6.1.
What do they have on their side? Institutional inertia and the support of a massive, rabid fan base. They won't let the organization quit on the season. In effect, the Cards are a midwestern Yankees, not allowed a fallow period of rebuilding. They're the most successful National League team in the last 90 year since John McGraw stepped down as manager of the New York Giants. In the last 99 years, they've won 14 titles, the 2nd most in baseball, and 22 penants, also 2nd most (to the Yankees both times). They've made the playoffs 16 times in the last 24 years, winnng the NL Cental 11 times. They enter each season expecting to be a contender, and while it's dicey, they're still in contention at the moment.
The Yanks do get two breaks in this series. They're home, and the Cards are starting 3 righties against them. Eric Fedde is having a very good, career-making season and starts the 1st game. Kyle Gibson throws the 2nd game; he's not anyone's idea of a top of the rotation starter, but he's been in the rotation of good teams most of his career. They get Mikolas in the 3rd game. As other teams have done recently against the Yanks, the Cards have called up a talented youngster, former elite prospect Jordan Walker, and designated Tommy Pham for assignment.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 30, 2024 16:16:31 GMT -5
In the series opener, the Cards start veteran righty Eric Fedde, who was a fairly highly-regarded prospect at one time. Drafted with the 18th pick of the 2014 draft by the Nationals, they did not let him pitch that season. Even so, Baseball America put him in their top 100 prospects for 2015. The Nats held him in instructional camp until June of 2015, finally assigning him to summer-A ball, where he pitched 8 excellent, brief starts, and then promoted him to low-A, where he maded 6 so-so starts to finish the season. Before 2016, MLB Pipeline joined BA in putting Fedde in their top 100 prospects. In 2016, the Nationals put Fedde at high-A, where he made 17 excellent starts, and promoted him to AA, where he did OK in 5 starts. Before 2017, Baseball Prospectus joined BA and Pipeline and put Fedde in their top 100. That season, Fedde made 7 Ok starts in AA before someone in the Nats organization decided he'd get to the majors faster if they made him a reliever. After 10 good relief appearances in AA, they promoted him to AAA, where after 6 so-so relief games, they organization changed their minds and had him stretch out his arm as a starter in 4 starts. They called him to the majors to see if he could help them in the postseason, and he made two bad starts so they sent him back to AAA for two OK ones, and finally called him back to the majors to made one more bad start. Deciding he couldn't help them in the playoffs, they shut him down for the season instead. After this disjointed, unsettling performance, BA and Pipeline jumped ship, and before 2018, Prospectus was the only top 100 list Fedde appeared in.
In 2018, Fedde went from AA to AAA to the majors, then bounced up and down between AA and AAA again before returning and making 5 ineffective starts for the Nats to end the season at 11 starts, 2-4 with a 5.54 ERA. He started 2019 at AA yet again, moved up for 1 game at AAA, and the Nats again brought him up to use him in the pen. They then starting to stretch him out from the bullpen for the rotation, and he made 2 good starts and 4 poor ones, so back to AAA he went, where he made two terrible starts before being recalled He made 6 more craptastic starts before they shoved him back in the bullpen to end the season. He was 4-2 with a 4.50 ERA in 12 starts and 9 relief games. In the COVID season of 2020, Fedds was with the Nats the whole year, and made 8 starts and 3 relief appearances, again pitching so-so ball: 2-4 with a 4.29 ERA. They finally put him in rotation for all of 2021 and 2022 (with one month's stay on the IL each season) and he still wasn't good enough: 13-22 in 54 starts in the two seasons with an ERA of 5.64.
He was due for arbitration and the Nats weren't interested, so they let him simply walk. Finding no takers in MLB, he instead signed with NC Dinos of the KBO, where he had a spectacular season in 2023. In 30 starts, Fedde went 20-6 with a 2.00 ERA, winning both the MVP and Choi Dong-won (equivalent to the Cy Young) Award. Returning to America, he found a team desperate enough to give him a try, the terrible White Sox. He pitched very well for the ChiSox, going 7-4 with a 3.11 ERA, and it could've been better: their bullpen blew no less than 6 other starts where Fedde left with as the pitcher of record with a lead. At the deadline, with just two months left on his contract, the White Sox traded him and Tommy Pham (who was just DFA'ed) to the Cards and Michael Kopech to the Dodgers in a 3-team deal that also sent Tommy Edman and a minor leaguer to LA, the White Sox getting back Miguel Vargas, two other prospects and "future considerations". With the Cards, Fedde hasn't pitched as well, going 1-3 in 5 starts with an ERA of 5.23. On the season, Fedde is 8-7 with a 3.31 ERA. In 149 1/3 innings, he's allowed 129 hits, 56 runs, 55 earned, 19 HR and 45 BB with 129 K's. His WHIP on the season is a solid 1.165.
The is the 4th start that Fedde has made against the Yanks. He did poorly in his other 3 starts, 0-1 with a 5.03 ERA, but no starts against them since 2020. In 14 1/3 innings, he's allowed 17 hits, 9 runs, 8 earned, 4 HR, 4 BB and struck out 10. His WHIP against the Yanks is 1.465, and their team quadruple slash line vs. Fedde is .293/.333/.552/.885. He pitched decently in his last start against then in 2020, going 4 innings, giving up 4 hits, 2 runs, 1 earned, a HR 1 BB and 3 K's, but didn't last long enough to qualify for the win in a 9-2 rout in the 2nd game of the COVID season.
Repertoire: Fedde is essentially a 4-pitch righty: cutter, sinker, sweeper and change. He also has a 4-seamer, supposedly, but he's thrown just 4 of them the whole season, so they could be a miscoding of the sinker. The cutter has more or less major league average drop and break glove-side. The sinker has average drop and considerably less than average tail away from lefties. The sweeper has below average drop and break in on lefties. The change has above average drop but below average tail in on righties. The FB (sinker) has below average velocity and bottom of the league spin rate, but that's usually an asset for a sinker (prevents 'rise'), not a detriment. He's always gotten well above average extension, but it hasn't helped his performance, not until this season, anyway. His barrel rate is a bit above average, the hard hit rate a bit below average, and the average exit velocity is below average. His line drive rate is below average, the grounder rate is average, the flyball rate is above average and the popup rate is well above average. The called strike rate is below average and the swinging strike rate is well below average, as is the CSW. All three luck factors are working in Fedde's favor so far this year: the BABIP is about 20 pts below MLB average, the Strand rate is 5% above average, and the HR/FB rate is well below average. His ERA estimators say his ERA should be 3/4 of a run higher than it is: 4.06 against the current 3.31.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 30, 2024 16:21:18 GMT -5
Playing the Name Game: The number of Erics in MLB history is near 100. The most valuable pitching Eric is former Yankee Eric Milton, a one-time top prospect (#25 of the Baseball America top 100 after the 1994 season); he compiled nearly 16 bWAR in his career. The most successful pitching Eric was Eric Gagne, who was a good starting pitcher prospect with the Dodgers (#49 in the BA Top 100 before the 2000 season), but couldn't make it as a starter, so they turned him into a closer, and he had three straight dominant seasons in the role from 2002 through 2004, saving 152 games with an ERA of 1.79, finishing in the top 7 in the Cy Young all three years and winning the Award in 2003 becoming the first pitcher in history to win the award with a losing record (2-3) mainly becuse he saved 55 and didn't blow a save all season. He was heavily used in those 3 seasons, pitched in 70 games or more eaach year, and his career crashed with a torn UCL and TJ surgery in 2005. He came back to pitch decently for the Rangers in 2007, who then traded him to the Red Sox. He was terrible for the Sox, but held onto a roster spot long enough to get his first and only championship ring when they won it all that year, sweeping the Rockies in their only World Series.
There have been a number of Eric who were solid hitters, Hosmer, Karros, and two notable ex-Yankees: Eric Chavez, frequently injured but solid for them in 2011 and 2012, and Eric Hinske acquired at the deadline in 2009 along with Freddy Guzman to be the bench bat and the bench legs finishing touches on the roster of the last Yankee team to win it all. Hinske had one PA in the postseason, pinch-hitting, drawing a walk off Cliff Lee and scoring a run in game 5. The Yanks tried to rally from 6-1 down, geting to within 8-6 before falling short. They won the title in game 6, and your humble and lovable previewer was there to see it, just on the fair side of the foul pole in the 2nd deck in the LF corner. But the best hitter Eric, and the best Eric in baseball history was Eric Davis, the incredibly talented speed/power dynamo who could never stay fully healthy for a season. He became the first 30/50 player in MLB history in 1987 despite missing 33 games. Davis never was able to play more than 135 games in any season. He did win 3 Gold Gloves and 2 Silver Sluggers and got MVP votes in 6 different seasons. He hit a HR off Dave Stewart in his first at bat in Game 1 of the 1990 World Series, giving the Reds an early 2-0 lead on their way to a 7-0 rout, puncturing the A's aura of invincibility, and starting them careening to a surprising rout in an overwhelming sweep, getting outscored 22-8. He fought off multiple knee injuries, missed the entire 1995 recuperating from multiple injuries, and even fought off colon cancer in 1997, lasting long enough to play 17 seasons, winding up with 282 HR and 349 steals. His career power-speed number of 312 is 17th best in MLB history. It's hard to overstate how electrifying Davis was when he showed up in the majors, same skill set as Elly De La Cruz but a more complete hitter.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 30, 2024 16:26:00 GMT -5
The Yanks send Marcus Stroman out to oppose Fedde. Stroman does the best that he can with the stuff he has left, which isn't much. But he battles and tries to bamboozle hitters with a wide variety of junk. Sometimes it works, and sometimes it blows up on him. It's been working lately; he's looking for his 4th solid start in a row. He's now 9-6 on the season with a 3.88 ERA. In 25 starts, he's pitched 132 1/3 innings, allowing 127 hits, 64 runs, 57 earned, 18 HR and 57 BB, while striking out 97. His rate states are uniformly subpar: his WHIP is a well below average 1.390. He won't have enough innings to qualify until after this start (if then), but if he did, among 34 qualified AL starters, Stroman would rank 32nd in WHIP, 26th in H/9 innings, somewhere in the top 10 in HR/9 allowed, 34th and last in BB per 9 allowed, 32nd in K/9, and 34th and last in K/BB ratio. And with all that, right now, his season is a modest success.
This is Stroman's 11th career start against the Cards, and they've whacked him around pretty good. He's 1-6 with an ERA of 5.30. In 52 2/3 innings, he's allowed 68 hits, 37 runs, 31 earned, 8 HR, 13 BB and struck out 52. His WHIP against St. Louis is 1.538 and their team quadruple slash line against Stroman is .306/.346/.464/.810. He pitched against them 3 times last season, a good one before he hurt his arm, and two bad ones after, but he lost all 3 games. The most recent start was last June 25th in St. Louis, and the Cards knocked him out early, hammering him for 8 hits, 6 runs, 3 earned, 1 HR, 1 BB and striking out 2, getting the L in a 7-5 Cubs loss.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 30, 2024 16:27:42 GMT -5
Yankees' lineup vs. Fedde:
1. Torres (2B) is 2-7 with a solo HR, 1 K and 1 GIDP
2. Soto (RF) and Fedde were teammates in his time in the NL, he's never faced Fedde.
3. Judge (CF) is 1-6 with a double, 1 RBI (sac fly), 1 BB and 4 K.
4. Wells (C) has never faced Fedde
5. Stanton (DH) is 5-7 with a HR, 3 RBI, 1 K and 1 GIDP
6. Chisholm (3B) is 4-12 with 2 solo HR, 2 BB and 1 K
7. Volpe (SS) has never faced Fedde
8. Rice (!B) hasn't faced him, either
9. Verdugo (LF) is 1-1, a 2-run double
On the bench: LeMahieu is 3-8 with 1 double, 2 RBI, Grisham is 2 -6 with 2 BB, and pitchers Weaver and his opponent Stroman are 0-2 with a K and 0-1 with a sac bunt, respectively.
==============
Cards lineup vs. Stroman:
1. Wynn (SS) has never faced Stroman.
2. Burleson (DH) is 0-2
3. Arenado (3B) is 6-26 with 2 doubles, 4 RBI, and 5 K
4. Donovan (2B) is 5-14 with 2 RBI 1 BB, 2 K and 1 HBP 5.
5. Goldschmidt (1B) is 11-27 with 2 doubles, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 3 BB, 6 K and 1 GIDP
6. Nootbaar (RF) is 5-16 with a double, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 sac fly and 1 GIDP
7. Jordan Walker (LF) is 2-3 with a 3-run HR, 1 BB and 1 K
8. Pages (C) has never faced Stroman
9. Scott (CF) hasn't faced him as well
On the bench: Carpenter is 1-7 with 1 BB and 2 K, and pitchers Gibson and his mound opponent Fedde are 1-2 with 1 RBI and 0-1, respectively.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 30, 2024 16:29:13 GMT -5
Yesterday, the Yanks had the day off after dropping 2 of 3 to the Nationals.
In other AL East games...The Rays also had the day off.
In Boston, the Jays and Sox finally finished off their 5-game series with the Jays winning 2-0, taking 3 of the 5 games. Bowden Francis is as hot as any pitcher in baseball right, and he turned in his 4th straight great game, throwing 7 innings of shutout ball, allowing the Sox just one hit and striking out 5. The Jays got their runs on a RBI double by Guerrero in the 4th, and a RBI double by Clement in the 7th. Bowden got the win to raise his record to 8-3 on the season. Chad Green threw a 1-2-3 9th for his 16th save. Kutter Crawford allowed the 2 runs on 6 hits and 2 BB in 6 2/3 ininngs, taking a tough loss to drop to 8-12 on the year.
In LA, the Dodgets took the rubber game of their series against the Orioles, 6-3. The Dodgers took a 1-0 lead in the 2nd on a RBI single by Taylor, and added 4 in the 4th on a 2-run double by Barnes, their backup catcher, a RBI single by Betts, and a RBI single by Rojas. The O's struck right back in the 5th on a 3-run HR from Cowser, his 20th HR of the season, but never got closer. Edman added a sac fly in the 8th for the final margin. Bobby Miller made it through 5 despite allowing the Cowser HR and got the win, moving to 2-3. Cade Povich had another rough start, giving up 10 hits and 5 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings for his 7th loss of the season against just one win. Evan Phillips regained his old closer role for one night, striking out 2 in a 1-2-3 9th inning to get his 17th save.
Coming into the games tonight, the Yanks lead over the O's is back to 1 1/2 games, the Sox are 9 games back in 3rd, the Rays stayed 11 1/2 back in 4th and the Jays gained 1/2 game to get to 13 games back, but still in 5th.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 30, 2024 16:30:39 GMT -5
In other East games tonight: at 6:40 pm in Comerica Park, the Sox and Tigers begin a 3-game series. Tanner Houck (8-9, 3.23 ERA) starts for Boston; the D'backs knocked him around last start, but he had 3 quality starts in a row before that one. It appears the Tigers are finally ready to bring Casey Mize (2-6, 4.23 ERA) off the IL after a 2-month stay with a hamstring tear. The Tigers are probably the hottest team in the AL right now, winners in 12 of 16 games, and hot on the Red Sox' heels, just 1 1/2 behind Boston and 5 behind the Twins for the final Wild Card. The Padres fly down to the Stupefying Dome™ in Tampa to begin a 3-game set against the Rays at 6:50 pm. Martin Perez (3-5, 4.60 ERA) starts for San Diego; he has a 2.70 ERA in 5 starts since being traded over from the Pirates at the deadline, but just 1 win and 4 no-decisions to show for it. Taj Bradley (6-8, 3.77 ERA), once the hottest pitcher in baseball, starts for Tampa, but he's 0-4 in his last 5 starts with an ERA of 8.31. The Blue Jays go to Minnesota to play a 3-game series against the Twins starting at 8:10 pm. Kevin Gausman (12-9, 4.10 ERA) starts for Toronto; he's 3-1 in his last 4 games 2.08 ERA. Pablo Lopez (12-8, 4.26 ERA) starts for Minnsota; he's been just as hot as Gausman, 2-0 in 3 straight quality starts, and comes into the game off of back-to-back scoreless outings covering 13 innings. The Orioles continue their Western trip, but against a far easier opponent, the Rockies at Coors Field. Albert Suarez (6-4, 3.18 ERA) goes for Baltimore; he's allowed just 2 runs in 22 2/3 innings in his last four starts, but is just 1-0 with 3 no-decisions. Austin Gomber (4-0, 4.70 ERA) goes for Colorado; he struggled early in his last start against the Yanks, but settled down after that to throw 4 scoreless innings after throwing back to back good starts against the D'backs and Nats.
And at 7:07 pm, it's Fedde vs. Stroman. And that's it for the preview stuff tonight. See you in about 95 minutes for the game.
|
|
|
|
Post by Renfield on Aug 30, 2024 16:56:22 GMT -5
Thanks as always for the preview and the upcoming play-by-play, qwik.
|
|
|
|
Post by nw on Aug 30, 2024 17:33:02 GMT -5
It's never a bad day when you can read qwik's pregame. They should hire him to do the pregame on YES; his analysis is much more informative.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 30, 2024 18:09:27 GMT -5
Stroman ready to go. Wynn stepping in.
Game about to start...
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 30, 2024 18:09:58 GMT -5
Game underway. Wynn takes a sinker that backs onto the corner away, 0-1.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 30, 2024 18:11:32 GMT -5
Wynn...
Takes a cutter low/away, 1-1
Takes a slurve knee high, but well outside, 2-1
Sinker in the zone up and in, taken, 2-2
Sinker low, near middle, fouled
Slider outside, knee-high, 3-2
Misses under a hittable sinker, outer 3rd above the belt, K, 1 down.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Aug 30, 2024 18:12:44 GMT -5
Burleson up.
Takes a backdoor slurve, outer 3rd, 0-1
Sinker on the corner away, a bit slate, slashes it foul out of play off the left side, 0-2
Slider low, inner, grounded sharply but right to Rice, takes it to the bag, 2 down.
|
|
