The Political Thread

Dec 6, 2018 16:27:27 GMT -5 michcusejoe5 said:

What a day in the markets today...Tuesday was hemorrhage-central after Trump revealed that he is (no-so) secretly a super hero named "Tariff Man" and then it continued into the session today before recouping nearly 700 points off the lows of the day in the second half of trading. Ive thought we were overvalued for quite a while (Im sure many remember and its why I try not to make such steadfast predictions anymore lol bc conventional wisdom seems to not matter too much) but at the same time the economy itself seems to be on fairly stable footing. I think this is a good example of the old cliche of "the stock market is not the economy." I think its quite possible that stocks are purging a bit of the excess value pumped into them by way of Quantitative Easing but the economy itself is still strong. Just cant let a damn trade war derail all of the solid pro-growth policy/environment that has been cultivated in recent years.

JOE: Sadly, WE think the Market is in for a hell of a Roller-Coaster Ride; now mind you, this is just Tequila's & My opinions/predictions = So take it with a grain of salt. 

REASONS WHY THE MARKET IS GETTING HIT HARD IN LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS; (Not in Priority Order):

--The Tariffs are hitting so many USA Businesses in so many different sectors.

Articles everyday are posted with companies in different sectors screaming about how the Tariffs are hitting them hard & hurting their bottom-lines.
12-05-18: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-04/trump-tariffs-are-making-infrastructure-more-expensive?srnd=premium  

--The 2-year Bond recently is only 5BP to 13BP lower than the 10-year Bond Yield depending on the Day = Maybe signs of a pending recession (???).

--Our National Debt has Increased (NO LOGICAL REASON that the Rich got a Tax Break) and as interest rates rise, so will our debt servicing costs.

--Computers are responsible for 80% of all daily trades on America's Stock Markets and out of the Daily Top 15 Traders = Ten are computers. 12-06-18: finance.yahoo.com/m/3ca95bb7-7879-3e02-add6-13fdbc15e956/this-sell-off-was-caused-by-a.html

--Housing is slumping badly = The big builders, ARE NOT building smaller affordable housing/apts. that the Youth crave for & want desperately.

They are ignoring around 52% of our population (the Youth under 40-years old); plus the Seniors are not buying/selling like they once did. Add to that rising interest rates = Well...

--The Auto sector is getting crushed. Cars, now days, cars are over 10.5 years old and still on the road (the average car). On top of that you have UBER, LYFT, etc.

Wait until gasoline prices surge upwards= Consumers will be dumping their HUGE SUV's, Pick-Up Trucks and racing towards smaller vehicles including Electric/Hybrids, etc.

This will impact not only Auto Manufactures, but also Banks.

--DEBT is a Big Fat Balloon (waiting to burst) both for Consumers & more so for Corporate Junk Bonds.
12-05-18: www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-corporate-debt/?srnd=premium  

--The surge in increases of Devastating-Deadly-Extreme-Climate-Events are now impacting businesses = See Dollar Stores, just to name one of so many (think of the Hospitality Sector, etc.).

More DDECE's (coming our way), will only impact businesses more negatively.

--Amazon has recently scared the Crap out of Fed-X and UPS with Air Amazon. One reason, why the drop in that sector
12-04-18: www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/fedex-ups-fall-after-morgan-stanley-note-on-amazon-air-14800359?puc=_htmltten_pla&cm_ven=EMAIL_htmltten&tstmem=70008502&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TTEN&utm_term=FedEx%2C+UPS+Fall+as+Morgan+Stanley+Says+They+Face+Risks+From+Amazon+Air  

--Add to that the in-ability of Companies to find the skilled/educated workers they so desperately currently need.

As of last month over 7.2 Million job openings. No workers, less products produced = Less sales, less profits.

Lack of: Truck Drivers***, Welders, Restaurant/Hotel Workers, Home-Care Workers; Farm & Slaughter House Workers; Nurses; Teachers; Skilled Construction Workers; Pilots, Military Recruits, Factory Workers; etc. The openings are too long to list all... ***12-07-18: www.cnbc.com/2018/12/07/help-wanted-employers-need-workers-who-can-get-their-goods-moving-fast.html   ***Truckers transport over 70% of all products in the USA.

--Banks have lost millions of customers, deposits and potential new consumer loans. Their credit-card portfolio &, consumer loans are seeing higher delinquencies, etc.

Plus, they are holding the Bag of Crap when it comes Corporate Junk Bonds, Auto-Dealer Financing, Home Builder Loans (homes not selling as fast as they thought), etc. etc. etc.

Banks are getting real desperate and desperate CEO's do Stupid Things, etc.

+++--The Donald Factor: Finally, the markets ARE beginning to see/realize that Donald is a Total Incompetent Compulsive Serial Liar.

In addition they worry deeply about the ‘Policy Uncertainty’ that exists with/between Donald and his Admin. Officials.

Trust me; Donald will say something, tweet something and/or do something, that will impact the markets, in a negative manner.

Donald & his Team have already cause a lot of negative impact(s) with the WH's contradictions  about the Trade Conflict with China (Who is in Charge of this negotiates team? China has stated they do not know; I do not know; who knows?).

--WE have been in a Massive Bull Market for over 9-years = It is time for a major correction. So far, this has NOT YET been a major correction...

--The Muller findings will come out soon, but roll-out very SLOWLY.

As they come out it will be like throwing Gasoline on a Raging Firestorm for the Markets = And, just when one thought it couldn't get any worse.

The common statement from investors over this slow rollout will be:

"Oh my God; Donald (his family/team) did what? What do you mean, there is still more?" It will be, repeated a lot.

--There is more, like the Price of Oil; Geo-Political Events; Brexit (???); Either Mexico Or Canada or Donald backing out of the New NAFTA Pact; An all-out Trade war with China; The Saudi Prince; NK; etc. etc. etc.

HOWEVER, THERE IS GOOD NEWS = WE are Long-Term Investors (5-8 years out) = so WE will hold our Great Quality Companies (sell the others for the Cash War Chest & additional savings for future living expenses).

Hopefully we will be in for quite the Windfall over time.

"Tequila, what are your thoughts?"

T: "Go to the Mattresses NOW." 12-08-18: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-07/it-took-just-one-week-for-a-1-trillion-wipeout-in-u-s-stocks  

+++--12-09-18: www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/fake-and-bad-news-is-depressing-market-jpm%e2%80%99s-kolanovic-says/ar-BBQFOGv?li=BBnbfcN  
“To some extent, we trace the disconnect between negative sentiment and macroeconomic reality to the reinforcing feedback loop of real and fake negative news,” the strategists wrote.

And they see a lot of factors playing into that loop.

“Domestic political opposition may have an interest to paint a negative economic picture, individual market analysts gain more visibility and coverage with negative calls, and foreign adversaries amplify a negative news cycle in order to foster divisions and erode confidence in financial markets and the economy,” the strategists wrote.

Kolanovic monitors sentiment indicators, including how often topics are mentioned in news reports. And he’s concerned with certain news outlets that, while presenting at least a veneer of credibility, also contain darker offerings.

“There are specialized websites that mass produce a mix of real and fake news,” Kolanovic wrote. “Often these outlets will present somewhat credible but distorted coverage of sell-side financial research, mixed with geopolitical news, while tolerating hate speech in their website commentary section.”

“If we add to this an increased number of algorithms that trade based on posts and headlines, the impact on price action and investor psychology can be significant,” Kolanovic added.

The report cited the arrest reported on Dec. 5 of Wanzhou Meng, Huawei Technologies Co.’s chief financial officer, which first caused turmoil in after-hours stock futures trading and then weighed on markets for the rest of the week, as an example of such negative news.

And there’s another factor exacerbating the picture, as well: President Donald Trump and his administration.

The White House has “given more than enough material (e.g. tweets, etc.) to be exploited by these actors in order to create an environment of investment uncertainty (e.g., on issues of global trade, oil, business decisions of individual companies, etc.),” the strategists wrote.

The president continues to tweet prolifically, but after posting Twitter messages about the stock market more than 35 times since his election, he’s gone mum about stocks as markets have gone south in the past month.

DONALD: “You, YES YOU ALONE, have dug yourself such a deep hole there is no climbing out of this Self-Made Hell-Hole.

And NO, I am not lowering a Rope or Ladder…

DONALD: Please keep Twitting & Lying = Dig your Hole DEEPER.”

This could be a Reality Show: “Dragnet—“The Lies vs. The Truth, Facts and Reality (The NET is closing)”.

In addition, someone should make a Documentary: “The Rise and Fall of Donald (Lies, Corruption, Crimes and Incompetency)”.

OR A Movie: “How & Why Americans Allowed a Corrupt, Lying, Incompetent Candidate to Become President.”

--12-08-18: www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/prosecutors-say-trump-directed-illegal-payments-during-campaign/ar-BBQEjEQ?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=U147DHP  
Federal prosecutors said on Friday that President Trump directed illegal payments to ward off a potential sex scandal that threatened his chances of winning the White House in 2016, putting the weight of the Justice Department behind accusations previously made by his former lawyer.

The lawyer, Michael D. Cohen, had said that as the election neared, Mr. Trump directed payments to two women who claimed they had affairs with Mr. Trump.

But in a new memo arguing for a prison term for Mr. Cohen, prosecutors in Manhattan said he “acted in coordination and at the direction of” an unnamed individual, clearly referring to Mr. Trump.

In another filing, prosecutors for the special counsel investigating Russian offered Mr. Cohen “government level” synergy between Russia and Mr. Trump’s campaign in November 2015. That was months earlier than other approaches detailed in indictments secured by prosecutors.

And in a separate case on Friday, the special counsel accused Paul Manafort, Mr. Trump’s campaign chairman, of lying about his contacts with an individual they accuse of ties to Russian intelligence, and about his interactions with Trump administration officials after he was indicted on criminal charges.

Together, the filings laid bare the most direct evidence to date linking Mr. Trump to potentially criminal conduct, and added to an already substantial case that Russia was seeking to sway the 2016 election in his favor.

--12-07-18: us.cnn.com/2018/12/07/opinions/mueller-is-putting-the-puzzle-pieces-together-on-trump-honig/index.html  
... First, the evidence mounts that Trump has committed federal crimes unrelated to Russia. When Michael Cohen pleaded guilty in August to campaign finance violations based on hush money payments to Stephanie Clifford and Karen McDougal, he testified under oath that he had acted "in coordination and at the direction of" Trump.

In his sentencing memo filed last week, Cohen reiterated that he committed the campaign finance crimes "in accordance with [Trump's] directives." When Cohen pleaded guilty, White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said "the President in this matter has done nothing wrong, and there are no charges against him."

In Friday's filing, the SDNY writes that "with respect to both payments, [Cohen] acted in accordance with and at the direction of" Trump. That is a very big deal. It is one thing for Cohen unilaterally to claim Trump participated in a federal crime; it is another for the United States Department of Justice to confirm it. (Shortly after the public filing of the SDNY memo, Trump -- entirely inexplicably -- tweeted, "Totally clears the President. Thank you!")

The evidence also builds that Trump has attempted to obstruct justice by impeding the investigation of Russian election interference: the firing of FBI Director James Comey; the browbeating of Attorney General Jeff Sessions for recusing from the Russia investigation; the replacement of Sessions with Matthew Whitaker, who had repeatedly and publicly attacked Mueller's investigation; and Trump's inflammatory statements attacking cooperating witnesses and praising those who refuse to testify.

Federal crimes of any variety are a big deal, and federal crimes committed by the President are monumental. An ordinary person in Trump's position would face potential criminal charges (though it is unlikely Mueller will indict a sitting president given current DOJ policy).

And the President's conduct raises serious questions about abuse of power that will play into any consideration of impeachment by the incoming Democratic House majority.

Second, it is increasingly clear that Trump had deep financial and political incentives to curry favor from Russia as the 2016 election approached. Mueller's recent filings have begun to answer the "why?" question:

Why did Trump want so badly to please Russia and why did Russia want to help him win the presidency?

Cohen's guilty plea last week, and the sentencing memos that followed, provide the clearest answer we have seen thus far. We now know that, as late as June 2016 -- well into the presidential campaign and after Trump had become the presumptive nominee -- the Trump Organization sought to build a tower in Moscow and needed approvals from the Russian government to make it happen.

Trump repeatedly has denied having financial or other ties to Russia, during and since the 2016 campaign.

Cohen's guilty plea last week, and the documents that Mueller cited in the court filings, conclusively prove that Trump's denials were false.

Based on these revelations, we now know that Trump was compromised deep into his run for the White House. Trump needed to curry favor with the Russian government to obtain approvals for the Moscow project.

Further complicating matters, while Trump lied to the public about his business dealings with Russia, the Russian government had proof to the contrary -- in the form of written communications with Cohen -- which Russia could have used for leverage over Trump.

Because of his own financial dealings and lies to the public, Trump gave Russia the ability to influence and potentially manipulate him.

Given that, it's no wonder Russia tried to help Trump win the election, as Mueller has alleged in the indictment of Russian intelligence agency hackers.

Trump and his more cutthroat advisers apparently were eager to accept the help, whatever form it took.

Longtime political hatchet man Roger Stone communicated directly with Wikileaks and the Trump campaign about e-mails that Russian intelligence agents had hacked from the servers of Hillary Clinton, the Democratic National Committee and others.

Donald Trump Jr. eagerly accepted a meeting when Russian nationals offered dirt on Hillary Clinton: "if it's what you say I love it," Trump Jr. famously replied. Trump Jr., Jared Kushner and Manafort then attended a June 2016 meeting at Trump Tower with a team of Russian nationals, including a lawyer with reported ties to the Kremlin.

And there plainly is even more lurking beneath the surface of what Mueller has revealed to the public thus far.

Most ominously, in Friday's sentencing submission for Cohen, Mueller writes that Cohen -- who, in Mueller's assessment was "credible and consistent with other evidence" -- provided Mueller with "useful information concerning discrete Russia-related matters core to [Mueller's] investigation that he obtained by virtue of his regular contact with [Trump Organization] executives during the campaign."

The puzzle pieces fit together. Trump needed Russia for his business dealings. Russia wanted Trump to win because they could influence or control him.

And the Trump team wanted Russian help simply because they thought the Russians could help Trump win the election. Everyone profits, everyone gets what they want. READ MORE…

--***12-12-18: www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/incoming-new-york-attorney-general-plans-wide-ranging-investigations-of-trump-and-family/ar-BBQQ0Oa?li=BBnb7Kz  
New York Attorney Gen.-elect Letitia James says she plans to launch sweeping investigations into President Donald Trump, his family and "anyone" in his circle who may have violated the law once she settles into her new job next month.

"We will use every area of the law to investigate President Trump and his business transactions and that of his family as well," James, a Democrat, told NBC News in her first extensive interview since she was elected last month.

James outlined some of the probes she intends to pursue with regard to the president, his businesses and his family members. They include:

Any illegalities involving Trump's real estate holdings in New York, highlighting the October New York Times investigation into the president's finances.

The June 2016 Trump Tower meeting with a Russian official.
Examine government subsidies Trump received, which were also the subject of Times investigative work.

Whether he is in violation of the emoluments clause in the U.S. Constitution through his New York businesses.

Continue to probe the Trump Foundation.

"We want to investigate anyone in his orbit who has, in fact, violated the law," said James, who was endorsed by and will serve in the administration of Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has been mentioned as a possible 2020 Democratic contender but insists he won't run.

James campaigned on passing a bill to change New York's double jeopardy laws with an eye on possible pardons coming out of the White House.

James told NBC News she wants to be able to pursue state charges against anyone the president were to pardon over federal charges or convictions and whose alleged crimes took place in the state. Under current New York law, she might not be unable to do that.

"I think within the first 100 days this bill will be passed," she said, adding, "It is a priority because I have concerns with respect to the possibility that this administration might pardon some individuals who might face some criminal charges, but I do not want them to be immune from state charges."

She's also enlisting help from some prosecutorial heavy hitters, like former U.S. Attorney General Loretta Lynch, as a part of her transition to help her identify important hires for her office with an eye on bringing in experts for its Trump-related investigations.

New York is home to the president's namesake business, the Trump Organization, and it is where Trump's presidential campaign was headquartered and his reelection campaign as well.

And it is where a number of key events under special counsel Robert Mueller's microscope, such as the controversial June 2016 Trump Tower meeting, took place.

All of that falls within James' jurisdiction.

As a result, she is about to become one of the most recognizable — and powerful — state attorneys general in the country.

"Taking on President Trump and looking at all of the violations of law I think is no match to what I have seen in my lifetime," James said. READ MORE…

--12-09-18: www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/whether-a-president-can-be-prosecuted-remains-in-dispute/ar-BBQG78A?li=BBnbcA1  
…In order to bring charges, prosecutors would have to prove Trump had criminal intent and "willfully violated the law," said Josh Blackman, a professor at South Texas College of Law Houston.

Something that would be perfectly legal to do as a businessman could take on a different standard as a candidate and campaign finance laws are "very open-ended," he said.

Hasen said Trump's lawyers could argue Trump didn't have willfulness to break the law if the payments were completely personal and not connected to the campaign, despite their timing.

Some legal experts have also argued that hush-money payments to keep people silent about their affairs are inherently personal, though Hasen said he didn't agree with that argument.

CAN A SITTING PRESIDENT BE INDICTED?
Legal experts are divided on that question. The Supreme Court has never ruled on whether the president can be indicted or whether the president can be subpoenaed for testimony.

The Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel, which provides legal advice and guidance to executive branch agencies, has maintained that a sitting president cannot be indicted. Two Justice Department reports, one in 1973 and one in 2000, came to the same conclusion.

Those reports essentially concluded that the president's responsibilities are so important that an indictment would pose too many risks for the government to function properly.

Trump's lawyers have said that special counsel Robert Mueller plans to adhere to that guidance, though Mueller's office has never independently confirmed that. Trump's personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, has also said that a president cannot be indicted.

COULD TRUMP BE INDICTED ONCE HE LEAVES OFFICE?
There would presumably be no bar against charging a president after he leaves the White House.

Legal scholars have said that based on the Justice Department's guidance, it would appear that Trump could be charged for wrongdoing during the campaign or as president once he leaves office, but likely not before that.

Blackman said the statute of limitations for a campaign finance law violation — like the one Cohen pleaded guilty to — would be five years. The payments to Daniels and McDougal were made in 2016, meaning the statute of limitations would run out in 2021.

COULD TRUMP PARDON HIMSELF?
Trump has already shown he's not afraid to use his pardon power, particularly for those he has viewed as unfair victims of partisanship. He's pardoned Joe Arpaio, the former Arizona sheriff who was convicted of criminal contempt for disobeying a judge's order, and I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, a Bush administration official convicted of perjury and obstruction of justice in a leak case.

Courts have never had to answer the question of whether the president can pardon himself. In June, Giuliani told NBC's "Meet the Pres" that while Trump "probably does" have the power, "pardoning himself would be unthinkable and probably lead to immediate impeachment." READ MORE…

--12-06-18: www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/tillerson-says-trump-directed-him-to-do-things-that-violate-the-law/ar-BBQDnep?li=BBnb7Kz  
Former secretary of state Rex Tillerson said Thursday night that his relationship with President Trump grew tense after he repeatedly told the chief executive that many of the things he was asking him to do were illegal.

"So often, the president would say, 'Here’s what I want you to do, and here’s how I want you to do it,'" Tillerson said at a fundraiser for the MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, in his first public remarks about his truncated tenure since Trump summarily fired him by tweet in March.

"And I would have to say to him, 'Mr. President, I understand what you want to do. But you can’t do it that way. It violates the law,'" he said.

--12-06-18: www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-organization-responds-to-claims-it-hired-illegal-immigrants/ar-BBQBt1l  
The Trump Organization hit back at a bombshell report in The New York Times that said President Trump’s elite resorts had numerous illegal aliens as housekeeping, maintenance, and landscaping employees.

“We have tens of thousands of employees across our properties and have very strict hiring practices.

If any employee submitted false documentation in an attempt to circumvent the law, they will be terminated immediately,” a spokesperson for the Trump Organization told Fox News via email.

The Times article spotlighted Victorina Morales, an undocumented immigrant from Guatemala, who has worked as a housekeeper at the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey, since 2013.

The Times reported that Morales has “made Trump’s bed, cleaned his toilet and dusted his crystal golf trophies.”

She said Trump would sometimes give her a $50 or $100 tip.

Morales, who reportedly crossed the American border illegally in 1999, said she’s hurt amid the Trump administration’s crackdown on undocumented immigrants.

“We are tired of the abuse, the insults, the way he talks about us when he knows that we are here helping him make money,” Morales told The Times. “We sweat it out to attend to his every need and have to put up with his humiliation.”

She said she didn’t have proper documentation, and she used false Social Security and permanent resident cards.

Morales told the news outlet she expects to be reprimanded severely with the report coming out.

“I ask myself, is it possible that this señor thinks we have papers? He knows we don’t speak English,” Morales told The Times. “Why wouldn’t he figure it out?”

Morales told The Times she is applying for asylum and is exploring a lawsuit claiming workplace abuse and discrimination.

Her lawyer, Anibel Romero, has called for federal and state investigations into the matter.

“This toxic environment was designed to intimidate these women, leaving them fearful for their safety and the safety of their families,” he said in a statement. READ MORE…

--12-06-18: www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/judge-napolitano-i-expect-donald-trump-jr-to-be-indicted/ar-BBQxyDR?li=BBnb7Kz  

EVEN SOME FOX FOLKS ARE TURNING AGAINST HIM (THEY EAT THEIR OWN…).
Fox News’ Judge Andrew Napolitano thinks things aren’t looking that great for Donald Trump Jr.

Napolitano joined Mediaite founder and ABC News chief legal analyst Dan Abrams on his SiriusXM show today to discuss the big news from the Michael Flynn sentencing memo last night, in which it’s revealed that the former national security adviser has provided “substantial assistance” to the special counsel’s office and in other investigations.

Napolitano said it’s a “huge deal” and noted that Flynn has been cooperating with Mueller’s office for quite a while now.

He brought up the possibility of a connection between the Trump investigations and the Deutsche Bank raid, before saying “the President himself should be extremely uncomfortable about this.”

Abrams asked if he expects anyone in the President’s inner circle is going to get indicted.

“Yes,” Napolitano said. “I don’t know who, but I do know that Donald Jr. has told friends he expects to be indicted.”

“Do you expect he’d be indicted?” Abrams asked.

“Yes,” Napolitano answered.

He’s less sure about Jared Kushner, but he thinks Jerome Corsi is probably going to be indicted too. AND 12-07-18: www.huffingtonpost.com.mx/entry/tucker-carlson-turns-on-donald-trump_us_5c0a33ade4b0b6cdaf5dc43e
Tucker Carlson is usually quick to go after critics of President Donald Trump on his nightly Fox News show.

But in a new interview with conservative Swiss magazine Die Weltwoche, the “Tucker Carlson Tonight” host called out Trump himself for his boastfulness and for failing to keep his promises to voters.

“His chief promises were that he would build the wall, de-fund Planned Parenthood and repeal Obamacare, and he hasn’t done any of those things,” said Carlson, per The Washington Post.

Carlson said he’d “come to believe” Trump’s role was “not as a conventional president who promises to get certain things achieved to the Congress and then does.”

“I don’t think he’s capable,” Carlson explained. “I don’t think he’s capable of sustained focus. I don’t think he understands the system. I don’t think the Congress is on his side. I don’t think his own agencies support him. He’s not going to do that.”

Carlson said it was “mostly” Trump’s fault that he hadn’t been able to deliver on his pledges, because “you really have to understand how” the legislative process works and “be very focused on getting it done.”

Trump “knows very little about the legislative process, hasn’t learned anything, hasn’t surrounded himself with people that can get it done, hasn’t done all the things you need to do so.

It’s mostly his fault that he hasn’t achieved those things. I’m not in charge of Trump,” he added.

Instead, Carlson suggested Trump’s role had been “to begin the conversation” on issues such as immigration — which the conservative TV host has frequently and fervently railed against.

--12-05-18: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-05/mueller-s-flynn-memo-should-worry-kushner-and-trump?srnd=premium  
But the meat of what should worry Team Trump is in Mueller’s disclosure that Flynn has provided firsthand information about interactions between the transition team and Russian government officials – including, as was already known, several conversations with Kislyak in December 2016.

Those included a discussion about lifting economic sanctions the Obama administration had imposed on Russia and about a separate matter involving a United Nations resolution on Israel.

Flynn lied to federal agents who questioned him about those chats on Jan. 24, 2017, and that was a crime (as, possibly, were his efforts as a private citizen to meddle with a sitting government’s foreign policy).

The former general acknowledged lying, pleaded guilty a year ago, and then began cooperating with Mueller’s probe.

The timeline around Flynn’s conversations is crucial because it shows what’s still in play for the president and Kushner – and why Mueller may have been content to lock in a cooperation agreement that carried relatively light penalties, as well as why Flynn’s assistance seems to have subsequently pleased the veteran prosecutor so much.

Kushner's actions are also interesting because the Federal Bureau of Investigation has examined his own communications with Kislyak – and Kushner reportedly encouraged Trump to fire his FBI director, James Comey, in the spring of 2017, when Comey was still in the early stages of digging into the Trump-Russia connection.

Comey, and his successor, Mueller, have been focused on possible favor-trading between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin.

We know that Russian hackers directed by Russian intelligence operatives penetrated Democrat computer servers in 2016 and gave that information and email haul to WikiLeaks to disseminate as part of an effort to undermine Hillary Clinton's presidential bid.

Trump was also pursuing that business deal in Moscow in 2016 and had other projects over the years with a Russian presence. What might the Kremlin have been expecting in return? A promise to lift U.S. economic sanctions?

Kushner also had personal financial issues weighing on his mind at the time. He had spent much of 2016 trying to bail out his family from his ill-considered and pricey purchase of a Manhattan skyscraper, 666 Fifth Avenue.

After a meeting in Trump Tower with Kislyak on Dec. 1, 2016, which Flynn and Kushner attended together, the ambassador arranged another gathering on Dec. 13 for Kushner and a senior Russian banker with Kremlin ties, Sergei Gorkov.

The White House has said that meeting was innocent and part of Kushner's diplomatic duties. In a statement following his testimony before Congress in the summer of 2017, Kushner said that his interactions with Flynn and Kislyak on Dec. 1 only involved a discussion of Syria policy, not economic sanctions.

He said that his discussion with Gorkov on Dec. 13 lasted less than 30 minutes and only involved an exchange of pleasantries and hopes for better U.S.-Russian relations – and didn't include any discussion of recruiting Russians as lenders or investors in the Kushner family's real estate business.

--12-05-18 IMPORTANT: www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/4-takeaways-from-mueller%e2%80%99s-sentencing-memo-for-michael-flynn/ar-BBQvk0E?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=U147DHP  
Special Counsel Robert Mueller dropped a heavily anticipated sentencing memo on Tuesday for Michael Flynn, who pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI about a year ago.

You’ll quickly notice that the memo has large sections that were redacted — because they describe Flynn’s assistance with investigations that are still ongoing.

But there’s a lot in the text itself and between the redacted lines in the documents, amounting to four key takeaways.

First off, Mueller is quite happy with Flynn’s cooperation — happy enough to recommend that he serve no prison time. (This is a notable contrast to the positively scathing memo Mueller’s team wrote about George Papadopoulos, in which they said he did not provide “substantial assistance” and complained that he talked to the press.)

Second, Flynn is cooperating in not one but three different investigations — Mueller’s investigation of the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia, a separate criminal probe, and a third investigation of some kind.

But most of the details of these other probe are redacted, including even the type of the third investigation.

Third, the cooperation Flynn provided to Mueller’s probe specifically appears to break down into two main areas. One focused on contacts between the Trump transition team and Russia, but we don’t know what the other one is yet.

Finally, the many redactions indicate that there’s still a whole lot going on behind the scenes that Mueller doesn’t yet want the public to know about.

Mueller is very happy with Flynn’s cooperation

The special counsel praises Flynn’s assistance as “substantial,” writing that a “sentence that does not impose a term of incarceration” for him would be “appropriate and warranted.”

“His early cooperation was particularly valuable,” Mueller writes, “because he was one of the few people with long-term and firsthand insight regarding events and issues under investigation by the SCO” (special counsel’s office).

Mueller adds that Flynn’s decision to cooperate “likely affected the decisions of related firsthand witnesses to be forthcoming with the SCO and cooperate”— and redacts the sentence that follows.

As for the specifics of Flynn’s assistance, Mueller writes that he has “participated in 19 interviews” with either the special counsel’s office or attorneys from other Justice Department offices, as well as providing “documents and communications.”

The special counsel appears to write in a partially redacted passage that there are three investigations Flynn is helping with.

For that first investigation, the criminal one, Mueller writes that Flynn has “provided substantial assistance,” but then entirely redacts the three-paragraph long section explaining how.

That third investigation appears to be described in one brief paragraph near the end of the memo, but it is fully redacted.

The middle of the document focuses on how Flynn helped Mueller’s own investigation into Trump associates’ Russia ties. This is largely redacted as well — but not entirely.

Mueller says Flynn helped his investigation “on a range of issues, including interactions between individuals in the Presidential Transition Team and Russia.”

Then he mentions something else that is redacted. So there appears to be two main areas here where Flynn is helping.

The first subhed focuses on those transition team interactions with Russia.

Mueller starts with the conduct to which Flynn pleaded guilty — his own interactions with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak in December 2016, about a United Nations Security Council vote and about sanctions.

The memo also mentions that other transition team members “publicly repeated false information conveyed to them” by Flynn about his contacts with Kislyak. This appears to refer to at least two people:

We of course don’t know what they say, but one obvious question has long been just what Donald Trump knew about Flynn’s contacts with Kislyak, and the false information Flynn gave to Pence and Spicer. This would something Flynn could clearly explain to the special counsel.

A second subhed appears to follow, signifying a topic change, but it’s redacted. Mueller writes that Flynn “also provided useful information concerning” ... well, something, but the following two paragraphs are then redacted. READ MORE…

12-05-18: www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/senators-blame-saudi-crown-prince_us_5c076200e4b0fc23611132bc?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=__TheMorningEmail__120518&utm_content=__TheMorningEmail__120518+CID_895613d0772a5942f8dfd3c5dc4669ee&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=HuffPost  
WASHINGTON (AP) — Breaking with President Donald Trump, senators leaving a briefing with CIA Director Gina Haspel on Tuesday said they were even more convinced that Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman was involved in the death of Saudi journalist and U.S. resident Jamal Khashoggi.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) said he believed that if the crown prince were put on trial, a jury would
find him guilty in “about 30 minutes.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who demanded the briefing with Haspel, said there was “zero chance” the crown prince wasn’t involved in Khashoggi’s death.

“There’s not a smoking gun. There’s a smoking saw,” Graham said, referring to reports from the Turkish government that said Saudi agents had used a bone saw to dismember Khashoggi after he was killed in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

“You have to be willfully blind” not to conclude that this was orchestrated and organized by people under the crown prince’s command, Graham said.

Trump has equivocated over who is to blame for the killing, frustrating senators who are now looking for ways to punish the longtime Middle East ally. The Senate overwhelmingly voted last week to move forward on a resolution curtailing U.S. backing for the Saudi-led war in Yemen.

It’s unclear whether or how that resolution will move forward. The vote last week allowed the Senate to debate the measure, which could happen as soon as next week, but senators are still in negotiations on whether to amend it and what it should say. READ MORE…

---12-09-18: www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/fake-and-bad-news-is-depressing-market-jpm%e2%80%99s-kolanovic-says/ar-BBQFOGv?li=BBnbfcN  
“To some extent, we trace the disconnect between negative sentiment and macroeconomic reality to the reinforcing feedback loop of real and fake negative news,” the strategists wrote.

And they see a lot of factors playing into that loop.

“Domestic political opposition may have an interest to paint a negative economic picture, individual market analysts gain more visibility and coverage with negative calls, and foreign adversaries amplify a negative news cycle in order to foster divisions and erode confidence in financial markets and the economy,” the strategists wrote.

Kolanovic monitors sentiment indicators, including how often topics are mentioned in news reports. And he’s concerned with certain news outlets that, while presenting at least a veneer of credibility, also contain darker offerings.

“There are specialized websites that mass produce a mix of real and fake news,” Kolanovic wrote. “Often these outlets will present somewhat credible but distorted coverage of sell-side financial research, mixed with geopolitical news, while tolerating hate speech in their website commentary section.”

“If we add to this an increased number of algorithms that trade based on posts and headlines, the impact on price action and investor psychology can be significant,” Kolanovic added.

The report cited the arrest reported on Dec. 5 of Wanzhou Meng, Huawei Technologies Co.’s chief financial officer, which first caused turmoil in after-hours stock futures trading and then weighed on markets for the rest of the week, as an example of such negative news.

And there’s another factor exacerbating the picture, as well: President Donald Trump and his administration.

The White House has “given more than enough material (e.g. tweets, etc.) to be exploited by these actors in order to create an environment of investment uncertainty (e.g., on issues of global trade, oil, business decisions of individual companies, etc.),” the strategists wrote.

The president continues to tweet prolifically, but after posting Twitter messages about the stock market more than 35 times since his election, he’s gone mum about stocks as markets have gone south in the past month. READ MORE…

--12-10-18: www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/comey-calls-on-americans-to-use-every-breath-we-have-to-oust-trump-in-2020/ar-BBQJSaM?li=BBnb7Kz
Former FBI Director James Comey asked American voters Sunday night to end Donald Trump's presidency with a "landslide" victory for his opponent in 2020.

"All of us should use every breath we have to make sure the lies stop on January 20, 2021," Comey told an audience at the 92nd Street Y on New York City's Upper East Side. He all but begged Democrats to set aside their ideological differences and nominate the person best suited to defeating Trump in an election.

"I understand the Democrats have important debates now over who their candidate should be," Comey told MSNBC's Nicolle Wallace, "but they have to win. They have to win."

Over the course of more than an hour, Comey repeatedly derided Trump's character, again likening the atmosphere around the President to what he saw in prosecuting mafia figures and suggested that Trump's tweets could eventually amount to witness tampering.

Asked if Trump might be an unindicted co-conspirator in some of the crimes recently described by special counsel Robert Mueller, Comey said he didn't know, "but if he's not there, he's certainly close."

Still, Comey said he hoped that Trump would be swept out of office without being impeached. Framing the rise of Trumpism as a political ill the country needed to exorcise at the ballot, he expressed a hope that Americans would "in a landslide rid ourselves of this attack on our values."

"Removal by impeachment would muddy that," he said, and potentially leave a third of the country feeling like their chosen leader had been removed in a "coup."
READ MORE…

AND***12-11-18: www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/44-ex-senators-warn-us-is-entering-a-dangerous-period/ar-BBQMAbz?li=BBnb7Kz  
A bipartisan group of nearly four dozen former senators warned current and future members of the Senate on Monday that the United States was “entering a dangerous period,” and urged them to defend America’s democracy by serving national interests rather than political ideologies.

“We are on the eve of the conclusion of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation and the House’s commencement of investigations of the president and his administration,” the 44 ex-lawmakers wrote in an op-ed published by The Washington Post.
“The likely convergence of these two events will occur at a time when simmering regional conflicts and global power confrontations continue to threaten our security, economy and geopolitical stability.”

The senators continued: “It is a time, like other critical junctures in our history, when our nation must engage at every level with strategic precision and the hand of both the president and the Senate.

We are at an inflection point in which the foundational principles of our democracy and our national security interests are at stake, and the rule of law and the ability of our institutions to function freely and independently must be upheld.” READ MORE…

12-10-18: www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/fox-news-andrew-mccarthy-trump-indicted_us_5c0d5cafe4b0ab8cf6946c32?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=__TheMorningEmail__121018&utm_content=__TheMorningEmail__121018+CID_38fc0e77e1527c3183259d791bb75b5b&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=HuffPost&ncid=newsltushpmgnews__TheMorningEmail__121018  
Fox News contributor Andrew McCarthy has bad news for President Donald Trump: Get ready to be indicted for violating federal campaign finance laws.

McCarthy, a former federal prosecutor, said on “Fox & Friends” Sunday that attorneys with the Southern District of New York are “clearly” going after Trump, given recent revelations about statements by Michael Cohen, his former personal lawyer, to the U.S. district court.

“They are clearly going after the president on campaign finance violations and I think if you read the sentencing memo the Southern District filed in Cohen’s case, it’s clear that Trump is the target and he’ll be indicted eventually,” McCarthy said.

McCarthy served as assistant U.S. attorney for the Southern District for 18 years before leaving the Justice Department in 2003. READ MORE…