ALCS Game 6: Yankees (Severino) at Astros (Verlander)

1. Brett Gardner (L) LF
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF
3. Didi Gregorius (L) SS
4. Gary Sanchez (R) C
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B
7. Cashman's Guy (S) CF
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B
9. Chase Headley (S) DH


Let's hear it for the Good Guys!:
YEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!

1. George Springer (R) CF
2. Josh Reddick (L) RF
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS
5. Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B
6. Alex Bregman (R) 3B
7. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF
8. Evan Gattis (R) DH
9. Brian McCann (L) C

Let's hear it for the bad guys!:
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

The best way to beat Justin Verlander in Game Six could be swinging early in the count

Verlander dominated in Game Two for two reasons. One, his stuff was electric. That’s always a good start. And two, he was ahead in the count all night. Verlander faced 32 batters and 22 saw a first pitch strike. Thirteen of the 32 batters saw an 0-2 count, and that’s no way to hit. How did Verlander get ahead in Game Two? With his fastball. Only six of those 32 batters did not get a first pitch fastball. Here are his first pitches in Game Two, via Baseball Savant:



Thirty-two batters, 26 first pitch fastballs. Furthermore, the first pitch non-fastballs were thrown to specific batters. Gary Sanchez saw three first pitch curveballs in his four at-bats and Greg Bird saw two first pitch curveballs in his four at-bats. Chase Headley saw a first pitch slider, and he was struggling mightily at the time, so I guess Verlander just felt like piling on. But yeah, six first pitch non-fastballs and five were thrown to Sanchez and Bird.

During the regular season Verlander threw 69.8% first pitch fastballs, so seven out of ten times he’d throw a heater on the first pitch to try to get ahead. That’s what he does. Verlander has a great fastball and he uses it to put the hitter on the defensive. Luis Severino, who will oppose Verlander tonight, does the same thing. Because Verlander throws so many first pitch fastballs, this seems like something the Yankees might be able to use to their advantage in Game Six tonight.

Now, I’m not saying everyone should go up to the plate and look to an ambush a first pitch fastball. But in select situations, say with a runner on base or in scoring position, sitting dead red on a first pitch fastball might be the best way to get something to hit against Verlander. Of course you want to work the count, especially with Houston’s bullpen being shaky. Then again, Verlander is probably going to throw 110+ pitches anyway, so how much does that help?

Verlander has such a great fastball that you could sit on the pitch, get it, and still not do anything with it. That’s why he’s so great. But the Yankees are a very good fastball hitting team. They hit everything well, but especially fastballs. Their .355 xwOBA on fastballs was seventh best in MLB during the regular season. Knowing Verlander is going to throw so many first pitch fastballs seems like a possible advantage. It’s something to hunt in a specific count given how often he goes to his heater to start an at-bat.

I'm really glad Headley has started producing, and giving us production out of the DH spot. It feels nice knowing our DH is hitting, which they weren't for most of the postseason. Our DH spot was almost an automatic, pitcher like out for a while there.

The time is now!

Brett the Jet! Base hit! LETS GO JUDGE!!!