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Post by inger on Aug 20, 2019 10:15:40 GMT -5
8/20 vs. Oakland A’s / Homer Bailey / 10-8; 5.22 If the 33 year old has one trait that stands out, it’s inconsistency. He’s made a dozen starts this season in which he’s shut his opponent down with 2 runs or less. That includes an early season vs. the Yanks where he surprised with a one run, three hit effort over six innings in a 6-1 KCR’s victory. He’s also been hit hard, early, and often in several other games. His 10-8 record is a bit surprising after he ushered his way out of Cincinnati last season with a 1-14 mark. This is the most wins he’s had since accumulating 11 in 2013. He’s a strike thrower that works the ball in and out much more than most pitchers, but does little up in the strike zone. He relies on weak contact to succeed and is an extreme reverse splits fellow. Tough on lefties, but righties tend to hit him him well and draw more walks than lefty hitters. One thing that struck me was his scatter charts. I already mentioned that he works the ball in and out more than up and down, and these charts showed how extreme that trait was. Some of his strike zone misses are extreme. Look for some hitters to dance out of the way. 4S fastball, 93. Has some natural sink. Nothing special, but on some nights it has extreme sink, and he’ll pile up more strikeouts with it than usual. Some even say he has two fastballs, one that is a true sinker, but I doubt that. The “true sinker” is such a dominant pitch that if it were a reliable and commendable option every night, he’d use it a lot more. Splitter, 84 has good sink and gets GB to the extreme. Hard slider at 88, 12-6 but not a lot of drop. Contact is frequent but on the ground more often than not. Knuckle curve at 79 is often hit airborne. It’s not a great curve, but it’s another off-speed option that he needs to keep batters out of rhythm. He’s had a better season than his 5.22 ERA indicates, and his FIP is middle 4’s...This may be a tougher assignment than expected. When he’s right, he’s no pushover... Funny that they're facing Bailey today and I was thinking of Phil Hughes earlier. Once upon a time they were the two best pitching prospects in baseball. I thought of that, as well. Hughes was a good deal better at one or two times in his career, but it never lasted for long. Seems like Hughes retired a decade ago. For all his foibles, Bailey keeps trucking along. Hope we see bad Bailey this time. We’ve already seen the good one... |
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Post by greatfatness on Aug 20, 2019 19:40:17 GMT -5
I won't stay up to see this one, I hope, but the LLWS tonight is really good
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Post by inger on Aug 20, 2019 20:06:38 GMT -5
Moving a game ahead...
8/21 vs. Oakland A’s / Mike Fiers 11-3; 3.46
For the second straight game we are facing a pitcher who is one of the least likely pitchers to have thrown not only one no-hitter in his career, but two no hitters. Homer Bailey and Mike Fiers have both rather illogically pulled off that feat. In fact of all
pitchers who have thrown two no hitters in their career, Bailey has the highest career ERA and Fiers has the third highest career ERA.
Speaking of ERA, for the second consecutive season, Fiers has posted a MUCH higher FIP than ERA. In 2018 he posted 3.56/4.75. In 2019 he’s at 3.46/4.77. His K rate has declined as a once quick FB has fallen below average.
He’s normally going to give his team 5-7 innings and unlike Bailey is a pretty consistent performer. His normal game sees him get his 85-100 pitches worth of work, though in his May 9 no-hitter vs. Cin. He threw 131, and was aided by some sparkling defensive plays, not rare for Oakland.
He controls HR well, and rarely walks more than a couple per start.
He gets hitters out by working the ball up, down, in, out, and around the strike zone while changing speeds with his various pitches. He doesn’t wilt under pressure and has a GB pitch to turn to that may not be the pitch you might expect. The slow curve at 74 is such a secret weapon, especially for a pitcher with a “sinker”.
He’s been changing his pitch mix of late, featuring less FB. His top four pitches below are used almost equally with none being used more than 20% in recent months.
4S FB, 91. Some dangerous backspin. Used to be used nearly 1/2 the time. Good move to reduce that.
Sinker, 91. Another guy with a sinker that doesn't sink much. He gets weak FB contact on this one.
Curve. 74 with rare 12-5 sharp bite that induces weak ground ball contact and can get him out of jams with DPs. He seldom gets a swing and miss on anything, especially this pitch.
Cutter, 87 with only slight glove side movement, enough to get off the barrel bit that’s about it. FB pitch
Change, 84 is one of the least missed by batters in baseball, induces weak FB action
Slider, 85, has not been used much this season, but he’s been using it more if late as he tries to manufacture a different look and approach. Look for 6 or 10 of these tonight if he’s around for his usual 100 or so pitches...
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Post by inger on Aug 20, 2019 20:09:04 GMT -5
I won't stay up to see this one, I hope, but the LLWS tonight is really good I like that they start at 8 out here, but we’ll be out until near midnight tonight. If get home by 11, maybe I’ll see an inning or two...Hence the early opposing pitcher report for tomorrow night. Get a good sleep Fatness. The rest of the guys will bring this one home for us... |
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Post by greatfatness on Aug 20, 2019 20:24:22 GMT -5
Play that ended the LLWS game just now was Urshela-ish
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Post by inger on Aug 20, 2019 20:32:10 GMT -5
Play that ended the LLWS game just now was Urshela-ish 👍 |
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Post by greatfatness on Aug 21, 2019 19:27:17 GMT -5
Play that ended the LLWS game just now was Urshela-ish
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Post by inger on Aug 21, 2019 19:42:45 GMT -5
Play that ended the LLWS game just now was Urshela-ish Again?... (: |
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Post by greatfatness on Aug 21, 2019 19:44:07 GMT -5
Play that ended the LLWS game just now was Urshela-ish Again?... (: That's weird. Not sure what that second post was. Gremlins. No tonight's game isn't over yet. But the play the NJ 3B made to end last night's game was cool |
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Post by inger on Aug 21, 2019 19:46:25 GMT -5
That's weird. Not sure what that second post was. Gremlins. No tonight's game isn't over yet. But the play the NJ 3B made to end last night's game was cool De Ja Voo-Doo... |
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Post by inger on Aug 22, 2019 9:56:24 GMT -5
8/22 vs. Oakland A’s / Tanner Roark 7-8; 4.01
2S (sinker). 92. Only slight sink. Fly balls.
4S 93. Gets swings and misses. Fly balls.
Curve 76. 12-5:30 movement.
Slider 86. No significant movement. Ground balls.
Change 85. So-so pitch.
Cutter 88. Fly balls.
His sinker is usually about 50% of the mix with the 4-seamer used about 20% of the time. Sometimes the slider gets 15-20 % attention, but he varies usage of it with other secondaries. He didn’t throw the cutter this season until mid July, but lately it’s been about 10% of his mix.
Roark was quite a good hurler when he first arrived in Washington, at 26, posting a 3.01 ERA in his 20’s. In his 30’s he’s been about average with a 4.37 (101+).
Left handed bats have raked him for a .311 average this season. His WHIP has increased in recent seasons, mostly due to his allowing more singles than he did in his younger days. Expect some traffic on the bases. While he allows about one hit per inning pitched and walks about an average number of hitters, he does not allow a lot of HR.
He’s pitched to a 2.55 ERA with Oakland in his three starts, but he’s done so with a more representative FIP of 3.89. Another averag-ish Oakland pitcher. Taking advantage of being in a great pitcher’s park. We’ve seen the past couple of days what those types can do in Oakland. Get as many LHH in the line up as you can and whack away...
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Post by inger on Aug 23, 2019 11:02:32 GMT -5
08/23/2019 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers / Hyun-Jin Ryu, 12-3; 1.64
He’s 32 years old, left handed. A bit roly-poly at 6’3” and 255. He dominates RHH and absolutely decimates LHH. He doesn’t blow the ball by anyone. He has one amazing talent that threatens the life of all worms, grubs, gophers, ants and prairie dogs in the area when he pitches. He makes batters hit the top of the baseball and beat it into the infield dirt.
His current ERA+ is 253. Compare that to Bob Gibson’s 1968 season, when he amazed by posting up a 1.12 ERA. His ERA+ was 258.
At home this season Ryu has gone 9-0; 0.81. In both May and July this season his ERA for the month was 0.55.
80 MPH change up is best weapon. It drives down out of the zone and hitters chase it down there.
93 MPH sinker has natural sink and features enough cut to make in tough to square up.
90 MPH cutter sinks and cuts.
73 MPH curve that bites down quickly with some glove side sweep that gets more swing and miss that most of his offerings.
81 MPH slider with glove side sweeping motion and a quick drop. Here’s a surprise. Some of these get hit in the air.
65 MPH slow curve has eephus-like qualities with it’s quick drop...
This should be a fun pitcher to watch. Every base runner will be a minor victory, each one precious as the Yanks try to figure out how to advance and score them. Beating him would be a great accomplishment. A horrible assignment to face when in a slump, but also a great challenge to overcome.
An interesting note. On the road this pitcher has allowed one hit per inning, and is 3-3; 2.55. That’s not chump change, but it leads me to believe that the infield dirt in LA might get a couple extra drops of water and a bit more sand in the mix when he pitches. On the road, maybe teams forget to water that day...
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Post by inger on Aug 23, 2019 14:57:16 GMT -5
Just a follow up to the group:
Are there any features in these reports that are boring/should be eliminated?
Anything you can think of you would like added?
“Critique” and criticism are not the same thing. I doubt anyone can offend me...
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Post by rizzuto on Aug 23, 2019 16:45:26 GMT -5
08/23/2019 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers / Hyun-Jin Ryu, 12-3; 1.64 A bit roly-poly at 6’3” and 255. Hey, speak for yourself, Inger! You just hit too close to home!  |
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Post by rizzuto on Aug 23, 2019 16:47:58 GMT -5
Just a follow up to the group: Are there any features in these reports that are boring/should be eliminated? Anything you can think of you would like added? “Critique” and criticism are not the same thing. I doubt anyone can offend me... I love them! Don’t change a thing!  |
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