|
|
Post by kaybli on Jul 7, 2019 11:52:09 GMT -5
7/7/2019 vs. Tampa / Charlie Morton The 36 year old right hander is one of the most amazing late-bloomers in the history of the game. From 2008-16 he posted up at 46-71 with a career ERA of 4.59. Since, he’s gone 38-12; 3.10. His primary pitch is a knuckle curve that he throws 36% of the time. It comes in at 79 MPH with a sweeping motion accompanied by downward bite that induces swing and miss action along with ground balls. He features two fast balls. The 4-seamer at 95 MPH is swing and miss material with a tail cutting away from RHH. When contact is made it is often in the air. The cut fastball comes in a 94 MPH and is another swing and miss offering that will induce groundballs. He throws a so-so slider about 10% of the time. It does hang sometimes and leaves the park often when it does. The splitter and curve are seldom seen and not exceptional. Morton is extremely good at making RHH make weak contact and is hard to hit for all batters. Seven of the eight HR he has served up this season have been to LHH, but making contact to begin with is problematic. Like many good pitchers, the window to attack Morton closes a bit early. He can be hit in the first three innings, after which he gets stronger. He is usually pulled by pitch # 100 or so...  |
|
|
|
Post by inger on Jul 12, 2019 10:56:45 GMT -5
7/12 vs. Blue Jays / Aaron Sanchez (not Anibal this time). (:
Once a budding star coming off a 15-2; 3.00 record in 2016, Sanchez is now a below average pitcher after having spent some time on the IL the past couple of seasons.
The pitches are essentially the same ones he threw in that nice 2016 season. Though his fastball is about 1 MPH slower. Perhaps that’s why the Jays are being so patient as he’s worked to 3-12; 6.19 mark with an AL leading 56 bases on balls in 2019.
He throws four pitches that can all induce swings and misses at times, but too often have wound up in the wrong location, either being in hittable zones or missing the strike zone completely as Sanchez has gone from walking 3.0 per nine in 2016 to 5.5 per nine in 2019. That, and more hits than innings pitched have driven a once tidy 1.17 WHIP up to 1.74.
The sinker is his most-oft used pitch at 94 MPH, while the 4 seamer follows close behind (both at near 30%). Both have sink, both have arm side movement. I’m not certain how to tell which one he’s throwing unless you see that he uses a different grip on them.
The curve is used a bit more than 20% of the time, sweeps to the glove side and has some vertical drop at 79 MPH. This is the only pitch Sanchez throws at a higher than normal spin rate and has the potential to be his best put away pitch if he can make batters swing at it.
He mixes in a hard change up at 89 MPH that some sink and natural fade a little less than 20 % of the time.
It seems to me that there is not enough variance in those two fastballs for them to be making up 60% of his arsenal, and that he’d do well to get more separation in speed between whichever fastball he chooses to feature and his change up.
For a pitcher with a lot of sink throughout his arsenal he seems to get barreled too often, struggles to finish off hitters. He’s either struggling to regain his former control or has become a bit bat shy since his injury.
If he can throw enough strikes he can still be effective. As it is, it looks like for now hitters can make him throw his pitches in the hit zone and have his limited arsenal figured out. As things are right now, expect walks, and high average exit velocity until Sanchez tames his command and changes that repertoire. The Yankees line up is no place to mess around with less than average stuff and smarts. He should up that curveball pct. to near 50% in this start, but he won’t... (:
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Jul 12, 2019 11:16:05 GMT -5
Last paragraph final edit at 10:15. Have I ever mentioned that I hate spellchecker? I did? I have? Thought so... ):
|
|
|
|
Post by utahyank on Jul 12, 2019 11:22:44 GMT -5
7/12 vs. Blue Jays / Aaron Sanchez (not Anibal this time). (: Once a budding star coming off a 15-2; 3.00 record in 2016, Sanchez is now a below average pitcher after having spent some time on the IL the past couple of seasons. The pitches are essentially the same ones he threw in that nice 2016 season. Though his fastball is about 1 MPH slower. Perhaps that’s why the Jays are being so patient as he’s worked to 3-12; 6.19 mark with an AL leading 56 bases on balls in 2019. He throws four pitches that can all induce swings and misses at times, but too often have wound up in the wrong location, either being in hittable zones or missing the strike zone completely as Sanchez has gone from walking 3.0 per nine in 2016 to 5.5 per nine in 2019. That, and more hits than innings pitched have driven a once tidy 1.17 WHIP up to 1.74. The sinker is his most-oft used pitch at 94 MPH, while the 4 seamer follows close behind (both at near 30%). Both have sink, both have arm side movement. I’m not certain how to tell which one he’s throwing unless you see that he uses a different grip on them. The curve is used a bit more than 20% of the time, sweeps to the glove side and has some vertical drop at 79 MPH. This is the only pitch Sanchez throws at a higher than normal spin rate and has the potential to be his best put away pitch if he can make batters swing at it. He mixes in a hard change up at 89 MPH that some sink and natural fade a little less than 20 % of the time. It seems to me that there is not enough variance in those two fastballs for them to be making up 60% of his arsenal, and that he’d do well to get more separation in speed between whichever fastball he chooses to feature and his change up. For a pitcher with a lot of sink throughout his arsenal he seems to get barreled too often, struggles to finish off hitters. He’s either struggling to regain his former control or has become a bit bat shy since his injury. If he can throw enough strikes he can still be effective. As it is, it looks like for now hitters can make him throw his pitches in the hit zone and have his limited arsenal figured out. As things are right now, expect walks, and high average exit velocity until Sanchez tames his command and changes that repertoire. The Yankees line up is no place to mess around with less than average stuff and smarts. He should up that curveball pct. to near 50% in this start, but he won’t... (: nice report.....Sanchez would be a risky trade for the Yankees, but I suspect there will be some eyes on him to see if he could help... |
|
|
|
Post by inger on Jul 12, 2019 15:37:05 GMT -5
I don’t believe Sanchez to be a viable option for the roster of a contender. I do believe him to be a good fit for Toronto though because he’s still young enough to be able to get his former ability back and contribute to the team if the rebuild goes well. Also could be a viable trade piece down the road if the rebuild stalls if he becomes a good performer again, whereas he has negligible value now with a 6+ ERA...
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Jul 12, 2019 22:56:24 GMT -5
7/13 vs. Blue Jays / Clayton Richard; 1-5; 6.23
Richard is a 35 year old LH who now profiles best as a LOOGY but in Toronto is working as a placeholder in a poor rotation by virtue of his experience. Though Richard has had a long career, he’s only achieved an ERA+ of 100 or better three times.
He has 5 pitches, but two are very seldom used.
He uses his sinker at 90 MPH some 59% of the time and it does sink sharply with strong arm side movement, getting a lot of GB action.
He backs that pitch up with a slider that has terrific depth, but often hangs resulting in fly balls that are hit very hard.
He throws a 4 seamer at 92 MPH about 14% of the time that has heavy sinking action, yet gets airborne way more often than is logical.
His changeup has both arm side run and diving action that usually drops below the zone. This is probably way underused at about 2% of his pitch mix.
The curve is so seldom used that all I could find out is that he has one, but once or twice in a hundred pitches he throws one.
Give as many LHH the day off as you can, Aaron. Richard is still pretty effective against them (.591 OPS +) while RHH slash .324/.391/.590, easy HOF stats for the average RHH he faces.
Richard tends to get through the first time in the order quite well, though any time he throws the ball to a RHH there is a strong chance it will be struck for a double or HR. By the third and fourth inning his game tends to disintegrate to such a point t that both of those innings are resulting in an ERA north of 10.00. The fourth inning has resulted in an opposing OPS+ of 1.169 (the third is better at .981+).
There is no reason to expect a gem out of Richard. In his last start vs. Baltimore he went 6 innings and allowed 3 runs and 7 hits. That’s about as good as he’s going to get, and that was against a much weaker line up than the one Boone will post tomorrow, even if he puts his worst imagination into play...
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Jul 13, 2019 18:06:50 GMT -5
7/14 vs. Blue Jays / Marcus Stroman 5-9; 3.19
Twenty eight year old right hander Marcus Stroman makes heavy use of his 93 MPH sinker. His sinker has more drop than any other starting pitcher in MLB and boy of arm-side run. As you’d expect, he gets a large pct. of ground balls with the pitch. He throws this pitch in the same place vs. RHH and LHH, so it jams RHH and LHH find themselves reaching for it down and away.
He also throws a cutter both up and down in the zone vs. RHH at 93 MPH that induces additional grounders.
He’s upped his slider usage at times this season, but seems not to be using it as much lately. It has a lot of run to his glove side and is his primary swing and miss pitch. Most of the time he pitches forvweak contact however with all of his other pitches.
He will occasionally throw a 94 MPH 4 seamer that gets hit in the air even though it has a bit of natural sink. Once in a blue moon he’ll show a 75 mile per hour curve that is rather indiscriminate in nature.
Stroman has proven to be more effective on the road than at home this season and is equally tough from pitch 1 to pitch 100, a number he’s seldom left in the game to exceed.
Expect a tough outing vs. Stroman. Tanaka will need to be on his game, and the Yanks must take advantage of what few opportunities they get while playing well afield to win the game. The best hope is for ground balls to find holes against Stroman and see if maybe he’ll hang a slider or two... Worms on warning, do not emerge without helmets...
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Jul 14, 2019 23:30:19 GMT -5
7/6 vs. Tampa Rays / Blake Snell All of Snell’s pitches are thrown hard from a high position on his gangly tall frame. The offerings are all the same ones he threw last season. FB- 96-98 lots of backspin, swing and miss +fly balls Curve 82 high spin pitch, swing and miss + fly balls Change 89 low spin rate, swing and miss, gets grounders Slider 88 good spin, swing and miss, big time ground balls. The results in 2019 are extremely less desirable for Snell than in 2018. A couple of things jump out as to possible reasons why. First, he has reduced the usage of his fast ball a bit this season. It’s a mystery as to why, but it has happened. The new mix is not working as well (sort of, I’ll explain later). Some comparisons. 2018 ERA 1.89 2019 ERA 4.89 2018 hits/9 5.6. 2019 hits/9 8.5 2018 0.8 HR/9 2019 1.3 HR/9 2018 WHIP 0.974 2019 WHIP 1.282 2018 FIP 2.95. 2019 FIP 3.35 His strikeout and walk rates are quite similar in the two seasons. In fact the 2019 rates are slightly better. Take a good look at those two FIP numbers and you get the idea of what’s happening. In 2018 Snell was extremely lucky, and he’s even been a bit unluckier in 2019. I think there is one more piece to the puzzle. Pitch tracking done by Brooks Baseball shows that Snell throws 44% of his pitches in the strike zone, compared to the league average of 49%. I believe he’s pitching behind in the count more and the batters have learned to wait him out. Since he throws all of his pitches with a lot of effort and quite hard, none of them have even average movement on them. When behind in the count (after 2 balls) he is more reliant on his fastball, and hitters are looking for it. If he does go to his other pitches, batters need only to adjust to the speed since there isn’t much movement. The weapons are still there to dominate, but Snell will need to readjust his thinking to himself back to that point. His June ERA was 9.64...Pitching just became harder for this young man, because the breaks went in the opposite direction in 2019. Now he needs to regain the confidence he rode to extreme positive results in 2018... Bump UPDATE: 7/15 start In his last 7 starts, including the one where he exited in the first inning with control issues vs. the Yanks and his effective but abbreviated start vs. NY before the All-Star break, Snell has pitched to an ERA of 8.26 that has seen him allow 38 hits in just 28.1 innings, including 8 doubles and 5 HR. He’s fanned 39, and walked 14. All of this with a .436 BABIP against due to a robust hard hit ball rate that is uncharacteristic for him. Though he’s been better of late, he’s coming off a long (perhaps much-needed) break. This would appear to be an important start for Snell and the Tampa Rays. Assume nothing... |
|
|
|
Post by inger on Jul 15, 2019 23:03:16 GMT -5
7/16 vs. Tampa / Undecided
More opener crap. Glad the Yankees aren’t playing that game anymore. Ashamed that we did. Glad to see Green doing two inning stints at the back of games, though...
I’ll be back when we get a real baseball game planned...
This is like having your punter start at QB...
|
|
|
|
Post by noetsi on Jul 15, 2019 23:19:52 GMT -5
if you dont have 5 regular pitchers then the starter makes sense to me.
Tampa has the best ERA in the league.
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Jul 17, 2019 9:46:09 GMT -5
He was previously scouted. I thought about doing an update, but I took a nap instead... Forgive a lazy old man... I dug up the old scouting report:
Ladies and gentleman, whooooooos Yonny?
This is the same pitcher we saw yesterday in DeSpaigne, except this one has very good command of all four pitches and doesn’t need the deceptive wind up histrionics to survive the second time through the order. Easy 91-92 on the FB. This change up and curve/slider combo won’t likely drop down below 75 like the ones yesterday, but they will illicit swings for weak contact with superior location.
When Chirinos is on, he can throttle the best lineups in baseball with his command and smart pitch selection. Get ready for a battle with him tonight. Besides, Chirinos don’t get soggy in milk...
Re-bump... Chirinos, only 25 years old, continues to build on a fine season. His command and control are the keys to his success. This pitching matchup with German may not be one to slobber over, but it’s likely also quite under rated by most. This should be quite a chess match... |
|
|
|
Post by inger on Jul 17, 2019 9:53:36 GMT -5
Previous post was edited after the bump...
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Jul 18, 2019 18:55:19 GMT -5
7/18/19 vs. Tampa / Charlie Morton The 36 year old right hander is one of the most amazing late-bloomers in the history of the game. From 2008-16 he posted up at 46-71 with a career ERA of 4.59. Since, he’s gone 38-12; 3.10. His primary pitch is a knuckle curve that he throws 36% of the time. It comes in at 79 MPH with a sweeping motion accompanied by downward bite that induces swing and miss action along with ground balls. He features two fast balls. The 4-seamer at 95 MPH is swing and miss material with a tail cutting away from RHH. When contact is made it is often in the air. The cut fastball comes in a 94 MPH and is another swing and miss offering that will induce groundballs. He throws a so-so slider about 10% of the time. It does hang sometimes and leaves the park often when it does. The splitter and curve are seldom seen and not exceptional. Morton is extremely good at making RHH make weak contact and is hard to hit for all batters. Seven of the eight HR he has served up this season have been to LHH, but making contact to begin with is problematic. Like many good pitchers, the window to attack Morton closes a bit early. He can be hit in the first three innings, after which he gets stronger. He is usually pulled by pitch # 100 or so... Bump: Someday, Charlie Morton will have a bad game. AL ERA leader owned us on 7/7. Got to get to him early... |
|
|
|
Post by inger on Jul 19, 2019 13:03:08 GMT -5
7/19/19 vs. Colorado Rockies / Kyle Freeland 2-6; 7.39
The 26 year old, lanky lefty is a Denver native who was the Rookie of the Year two seasons ago and finished 4th in the NL CY Young balloting a year ago with a 17-7; 2.85 mark. His FIP last year last season was 3.67, which suggested a lack of sustainability. Perhaps that is what prompted Freeland to work on his pitches to add more spin, which he has.
To explain, all of Freeland’s pitches have some natural downward movement, but with the higher spin rate, that movement is now not as sharp or deep as in the past. For a tall pitcher at 6’4” Freeland only generates about 92 MPH velocity on his 4 seamer, so he needs to command the strike zone and he needs that extra movement.
4-seam FB 92 MPH.
Cutter 87 not as much armside movement as most cutters, relies on sink. Gets more swing and miss on this pitch than most of his pitches, perhaps due to change of speed.
Sinker at 92. More sink than other pitches, has lost some depth on the pitch this year.
Change at 86.
Slider at 81 is his best swing and miss pitch and used to eat lefties. This year in a small sample, the pitch has stayed up more and over the plate more. More swings from lefties, and way more contact and power.
Freeland had a blister issue a couple of months ago. Went to the IL and upon his return was sent to AAA to work out his issues, where he went 0-4 in 6 starts with an ERA of 8.80. His return on July 13 was more of the same as he allowed 5 runs on 9 hits in 4 innings in an eventual 17-9 loss to the Reds. Next in line:: Yankees.
Many times we see regression in young pitchers. Instead of regression in this case we see a pitcher who is simply not pitching well at all. More of a total collapse. Good command has become poor command. Pitches that were down the last two years are up on the zone. Freeland allowed 17 HR in 202 innings in 2018 and has allowed 16 in 63 innings this season.
Unless he can undo what he did to his repertoire over the winter, he’ll never be effective again. He’s added a tiny bit more swing and miss, but his taken strike rate has reduced by 40%. He’s simply no longer fooling hitters...There’s been no sign of improvement to date...
|
|
|
|
Post by utahyank on Jul 19, 2019 13:17:36 GMT -5
7/19/19 vs. Colorado Rockies / Kyle Freeland 2-6; 7.39 The 26 year old, lanky lefty is a Denver native who was the Rookie of the Year two seasons ago and finished 4th in the NL CY Young balloting a year ago with a 17-7; 2.85 mark. His FIP last year last season was 3.67, which suggested a lack of sustainability. Perhaps that is what prompted Freeland to work on his pitches to add more spin, which he has. To explain, all of Freeland’s pitches have some natural downward movement, but with the higher spin rate, that movement is now not as sharp or deep as in the past. For a tall pitcher at 6’4” Freeland only generates about 92 MPH velocity on his 4 seamer, so he needs to command the strike zone and he needs that extra movement. 4-seam FB 92 MPH. Cutter 87 not as much armside movement as most cutters, relies on sink. Gets more swing and miss on this pitch than most of his pitches, perhaps due to change of speed. Sinker at 92. More sink than other pitches, has lost some depth on the pitch this year. Change at 86. Slider at 81 is his best swing and miss pitch and used to eat lefties. This year in a small sample, the pitch has stayed up more and over the plate more. More swings from lefties, and way more contact and power. Freeland had a blister issue a couple of months ago. Went to the IL and upon his return was sent to AAA to work out his issues, where he went 0-4 in 6 starts with an ERA of 8.80. His return on July 13 was more of the same as he allowed 5 runs on 9 hits in 4 innings in an eventual 17-9 loss to the Reds. Next in line:: Yankees. Many times we see regression in young pitchers. Instead of regression in this case we see a pitcher who is simply not pitching well at all. More of a total collapse. Good command has become poor command. Pitches that were down the last two years are up on the zone. Freeland allowed 17 HR in 202 innings in 2018 and has allowed 16 in 63 innings this season. Unless he can undo what he did to his repertoire over the winter, he’ll never be effective again. He’s added a tiny bit more swing and miss, but his taken strike rate has reduced by 40%. He’s simply no longer fooling hitters...There’s been no sign of improvement to date... thanks inger...that is considerably more about Freeland than I knew before.....go savages... |
|
