|
|
Post by inger on Aug 3, 2019 9:12:30 GMT -5
07/28 vs. Red Sox / Chris Sale 5-9; 4.00 Sale has pretty much returned to his best form after struggling to start the season. He did experience another slump the last half of June and first half of July as he served up 6 HR over a 4 start run, but his last two starts he’s pitched 12 innings with 22 K’s and 5 BB. He’s allowed just 2 runs off 6 hits in those two starts. He’s been heavily featuring his sweeping, diving slider generates tons of swings and misses while often leaving the strike zone. His 94+ MPH 4 seamer is hard to contact with his excellent location and natural sink. He moves this ball well anywhere within the zone. His circle change has a lot of arm side run and typically dives below the strike zone where, when contacted it gets beat into the dirt in front of the plate. Sale also throws a sinker that comes into the plate at 92 MPH and gets lots of swing and miss action. The best time to get to Sale seems to be around the middle innings, after which he toughens up again until he exceeds 100 pitches. At that point he’s still usually getting outs, but given his frail frame and second half woes of recent seasons he often gets pulled out at about 110 pitches or six innings... Bump What a difference a start makes. In my last report I gave credit to Sale for the two recent starts he had made, and for being on the right track to recovery. In one brief outing the Yankees have derailed him. It’s now back to the chore of watching him to see if his inevitable demise is going to come at she 30, if there is more in the tank, or if he can transition to another type of pitcher. Sale’s last 7 starts: 38.2 IP 40 H 26 ER 14 BB 59 K 9 HR 6.05 ERA slash against .260/.341/.494 with a shocking .360 BABIP. Interesting how often BABIP is used as an indicator numbed that a player has been pitching or hitting in bad “luck” and that his “luck” is likely to return to normal. What I saw of Sale vs. NY had little to do with luck and a lot to do with his pitches getting crushed hard...As for why, I’d say poor location of his fastball. As to a cure, who knows? This is not a year where pitchers are getting their way much. In addition, Sale’s recent history suggests that the second half of the season will not be kind to him. If he still has any ace left in that whippet-like form, he’ll show it today. If not, the Red Sox May shrivel even further back in the pack with the battle cry of “Wait til next year”... |
|
|
|
Post by utahyank on Aug 3, 2019 10:27:04 GMT -5
I assume the Yankees will be RH hitting-heavy in their lineup....when Sale buries that slider where it almost hits the back foot of the hitter, he is virtually unhittable, it seems....but when he doesn't get that big movement, and leaves it up and over the plate, it is quite hittable...I look for Edwin to launch...and more, I hope...
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Aug 4, 2019 11:09:30 GMT -5
8/4 vs. Red Sox / David Price
Price is no longer the owner of 96 MPH gas, but he’s found a way to continue take advantage of this generation plethora of strike outs.
He has three primary pitches that share about 83% of his workload almost equally:
Sinker (92) Does not sink as much as many sinkers, but is thrown harder than most. Also results in more flyball outs than most sinkers
Circle change (84) has some armside fade and natural sink. This pitch gets swing at and missed and also beat into the ground more than most change ups.
4seam fast ball has natural sink and is a good ground ball pitch that gets swing and miss action
Price also throws a cutter (89) that he uses about 16% of the time at 89 MPH. It doesn’t cut a lot, but cuts late enough to induce weak contact
His knuckle curve (81) has become seldom used. He throws it pretty hard for a knucksie curve, and therefore it has little depth. He has a hard time commanding and controlling the pitch.
We know that against the Yankees, Price has tended to get hit hard. He did best the Yanks earlier in the season this year, and at home to boot.
At 33, he’s not the feared force he once was, but he continues to soldier on. He tends to be most vulnerable early in games, innings one and two. Overall, he maintains his stuff and effectiveness right on through after that, showing no signs of weakening through 100 pitches. That magic 100 has become about the end for him at this stage despite the continued effectiveness, therefore he almost never sees the 7th inning any more.
His recent 4 starts have not been good at all as he’s pitched a total of 19.1 innings and has been ripped for 17 ER and 25 hits, of which 6 have been homers...The old soldier will need a masterful game plan today against a lineup that is sure to have it’s share of RHH...
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Aug 5, 2019 11:19:40 GMT -5
8/5 Vs. Baltimore Orioles / Gabriel Ynoa 1-6; 5.55
The 26 year old RH will be making his 25th appearance and 8th start of 2019. He tends to start games out well, with a 1.29 ERA in the first inning, though things begin to unravel more as each inning follows.
His high leverage numbers show a .404 BA against with 3 HR allowed in 39 such AB. Batters are hitting .360 when they see him for a second at bat.
He has severe reverse splits at this point with RHH batting .307 against him.
His 94 MPH 4 seamer has heavy sink and is ground ball weapon. Also a bit of arm side run. He throws this about 1/3 of his pitches.
His 94 MPH sinker is thrown quite hard for a sinker, has less sink and less fade than his 4-seamer. About 1/4 of his repertoire.
His 84 MPH slider makes up another 1/4 of his pitch total and has 12/6 straight down movement.
His 86 MPH change also has sink and arm side run.
The curve is seldom seen in the low 80’s and is not effective.
He has tight pitch clusters that suggest good control, but poor command, getting far too much of the center of the plate. He appears to be a pitcher that should be working as an opener or one inning at a time reliever that has been thrust into being a secondary option to start...
|
|
|
|
Post by kaybli on Aug 5, 2019 19:45:57 GMT -5
8/5 Vs. Baltimore Orioles / Gabriel Ynoa 1-6; 5.55 The 26 year old RH will be making his 25th appearance and 8th start of 2019. He tends to start games out well, with a 1.29 ERA in the first inning, though things begin to unravel more as each inning follows. His high leverage numbers show a .404 BA against with 3 HR allowed in 39 such AB. Batters are hitting .360 when they see him for a second at bat. He has severe reverse splits at this point with RHH batting .307 against him. His 94 MPH 4 seamer has heavy sink and is ground ball weapon. Also a bit of arm side run. He throws this about 1/3 of his pitches. His 94 MPH sinker is thrown quite hard for a sinker, has less sink and less fade than his 4-seamer. About 1/4 of his repertoire. His 84 MPH slider makes up another 1/4 of his pitch total and has 12/6 straight down movement. His 86 MPH change also has sink and arm side run. The curve is seldom seen in the low 80’s and is not effective. He has tight pitch clusters that suggest good control, but poor command, getting far too much of the center of the plate. He appears to be a pitcher that should be working as an opener or one inning at a time reliever that has been thrust into being a secondary option to start... Great scouting report, inger! He did unravel as the game went on! |
|
|
|
Post by inger on Aug 5, 2019 19:55:07 GMT -5
It took him a long time... What I was waiting for was for the balls that he was trying to hit the outside corner with to drift over the plate vs. RHH. What we got was the balls he was trying to get inside on LHH that drifted out over the middle. Everything he throws has arm side run except for the curve that he seldom throws... He needs something that has glove side movement...
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Aug 5, 2019 23:36:37 GMT -5
8/6 vs. Baltimore Orioles Asher Wojciechowski
The 30 year old AW has stumbled through the minors and in and out of multiple organizations. He’s had previous chances in 2015 and 2017 and has come up lacking. Yet, a couple weeks ago he pitched 7.1 innings of 1 hit shutout ball against the Red Sox, fanning 10. He followed that up with another good start before getting knocked around a bit his last time out.
He started out 2019 in AAA with Cleveland and got the attention of the Baltimore organization when he improved his MiLB WHIP and hits per 9 rather dramatically, and they bought his contract in July.
He throws a 4 seamer that tops out at 93. It makes upmas much as 60% of his repertoire on some days. It’s got swing and miss stuff despite below average speed and a lot of arm side run.
The slider is a big sweeper with nice depth and is thrown at 81 MPH. It’s the one pitch that he throws that moves to the glove side, and results in flyball contact, less swing and miss than his other offerings.
He introduced a cutter this season that has both heavy sink and a significant amount of cut. He get plenty of swings and misses and is using it about 25% of the time at 88 MPH.
He’s also nearly abandoned his changeup that he had been using despite it being an 80 MPH pitch with a lot of backspin that was often hit a long way.
The switch to the cutter seems to have increased his effectiveness. It would appear that many teams may be expanding the zone on his pitches due to their movement. Almost every pitch he throws has flyball tendencies and he remains a bit HR prone.
The change in repertoire seems to have made him more difficult to hit. At 30, he’s a softish tosser who doesn’t evoke much fear in hitters. This could be an interesting chess match between he and the Yankee sluggers...
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Aug 7, 2019 11:09:21 GMT -5
8/7/2019 vs. Baltimore Orioles / John Means 8-6; 3.12
Earlier this season Means faced the Yankees three times. At that point he was working as the follower to the opener, so hw accumulated only 5.1 innings during which he was effective, allowing only a solo HR by Gary Sanchez to erase the zeroes on his ERA.
The Orioles have given him an opportunity to start and he’s easily become their best starter.
He offers a below average velocity (92) 4 seam fastball that has only the slightest bit of arm side run and is thrown with plenty of backspin.
His second offering is a changeup at 81 that also features a lot of back spin, though unlike his FB, it is thrown lower in the zone.
Balls with backspin tend to be hit in the air, and Means has survived on weak fly ball outs. He does serve up about an average number of HR, which is excellent considering the stadium he plays his home games in. He’s been at his best at home.
Pitch #3 is an 84 MPH slider that has less depth than most that he tends to throw higher in the zone than most pitchers sliders. This is not your typical slider thrown to get swings and misses when it dives in the dirt, but a pitch to generate weak fly contact.
His seldom used curve is a slow 76 MPH pitch. Most slow curves tend to be those big yakkers that drop out of the zone. Though Means throws this one with straight down 12-6 movement, it only goes about 1/2 way down the clock dial.
None of these offerings is much of a swing and miss threat, nor has any distinct characteristic that should fool many hitters, yet he has been excellent vs. LHH. holding them to .185 with .585 OPS for the season.
He’s had a good season to date, but July was not kind to him. He’s coming off an injury and hasn’t pitched yet this month. He’s been fortunate to date to keep those fly balls in Camden Yards more often that logical. He tends to settle in quickly, but becomes rather vulnerable in the 50th through 75th pitch range. He’s been able to toughen up in high leverage situations.
His ERA of 3.12 belies a rather average FIP of 4.46. That, coupled with his rather lucky results to date and reliance on control/command while coming off a long break would make me bet against a quality start today...Look for some fastballs up to be left out over the plate...
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Aug 7, 2019 23:44:52 GMT -5
8/8/2019 vs. Toronto Blue Jays / Thomas Pannone 2-4; 5.98
4S 90 MPH gets most of his swing and miss.
Curve 74 MPH sweeping glove side movement
Change 84 MPH has some natural sink
Cutter 85 MPH if you see one, tell me what it did. He’s only thrown one this season
All of the 25 year olds pitches are predominantly fly ball pitches. He relies on soft contact most often, and does allow about an average ratio of HR. He works up and down in the strike zone, changing eye levels well, but leaving balls over the plate at times as he doesn’t do the corners particularly well.
Given his lack of velocity he has probably little chance of consistently fanning hitters, but does so in stretches when all of his pitches are working.
He’s allowed batters to hit .340 in high leverage situations, so is often pulled when the pressure builds. He can have a bit of control trouble, and it will sometimes manifest itself as he tries to settle in early in games. He also tends to be hit more often once he gets just past 50-60 pitches, which will also begin to coincide with the third time through the order.
Here’s some bad news. He’s been much better in Toronto with a 3.55 ERA and holding all batters to a .210 average with relative effectiveness vs. RH and LH hitters.
In his relatively small sample vs. the Yankees he’s been 2-0 in one start and three relief appearances with a 1.46 ERA. Yankee hitters have batted a measly .125/.217/.225 on 5 for 40, with just one HR...
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Aug 8, 2019 23:09:00 GMT -5
8/9 vs. Toronto Blue Jays / Sean Reid-Foley 1-2; 2.49
Reid-Foley’s ERA is deceptive. His numbers say that should be about double. FIP 4.83, WHIP 1.523, BB/9 5.8
He has a deceptive delivery that would seem to make him difficult for RHH to see the ball, but his splits are pretty close. he seems to have better composure at home, but is 0-3 there lifetime. Throws more strikes at home.
Against the Yanks he has only faced them in YS3, where he is 1-1; 4.76. He’s pitched 11.1 innings vs. the bombers with 18Ks and 10 BB.
Last September Reid-Foley had a nice run in the rotation with a 3.75 ERA and a high K rate. This season he has only K’d 7.5 per 9.
Some sites credit him with an average velo fastball at 94, and others say he can still hit 97. The righty is only 23 years old and seems like he could use more development time. His fastball does have swing and miss stuff with sink and nasty arm-side run.
The slider is 84 and probably his best secondary offering with more swing and miss in it.
His change needs work. Firm, 86, gets airborn.
The curve is relatively new, comes in at 82, sort of hard for a curve with mostly glove side run. More potential than reality until he develops some depth on it.
There is supposedly a seldom-seen sinker that he throws at 93. Tge slightly lower velo may be it’s only perceptible difference from the 4-seamer.
The scatter charts show that he throws a wide pattern, meaning musing in and out frequently. He works up and down in and out of the zone. His curve and slider tend to be thrown higher in the zone than most good breaking balls and can be punished. If Kenny Singleton was doing the game, he’d probably point out some of those cement mixer sliders, and some hanging curves that would have him salivating in the booth...
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Aug 10, 2019 12:42:19 GMT -5
8/10/19 vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jacob Waguespack 3-1; 4.00
Are the Blue Jays just making up names for pitchers and putting somebody on the mound? This is the first I’ve ever heard of this guy.
He’s a big fellow at 6’6” and 235. Intimidation rules... until you see the pitches. He was a non-descript reliever at Mississippi, had so-so numbers in his minor league days, but here he is, with a non-descript repertoire, and recently he’s been getting impressive results, posting two consecutive 6 inning starts and allowing a total of one run on seven hits between them.
4S FB at 93 has little movement but has been getting lots of not only swings and misses, but ground ball action as well. Since he throws it about 40% of the time, one wonders how he’s doing this.
The 90 MPH curter he throws about 20% of the time appears to be his best offering with plenty of cut and good sink. Soft ground ball contact has been plentiful.
He throws his 80 MPH 12-6 curve about 15% of the time. It’s usually a hittable flyball strike. He can start it high in the zone or lower. It’s seldom bounced, but he will sometimes entice weak contact with it below the zone.
There is a 90 MPH sinker that has less sink than his cutter and only a tiny bit of armside movement. It’s flyball tendencies seem to belie the intent of a sinker (as does the lack of true sink), but oh well.
Change up is at 84, the surprising cut on this pitch along with good swing and miss screams loudly “use me more”. So far it’s a 5% utilization pitch, so don’t tell him, please. It does have some scary backspin. Perhaps there is concern about the long flyball tendency when contact is made.
There is a slider that for some reason I’m not getting a speed nor any other usage information on. It’s a slider, and given the rest of the velos it’s reasonable to put it in the mid 80’s. I see from his scatter charts on Baseball Savant that it’s almost always placed in a location where he appears to be trying to back door lefties with it and is often down and away with it. That seems weird for a RH pitcher. Could he be trying to front door RHH? Again weird. Tease lefties into swinging with itvwhen it’s down and a away? Unreasonably weird now.
He hasn’t been around long, so everything is still fairly tiny samples, only a total of 36 innings. This far he’s been much tougher for lefties, allowing them only 11 hits and no HR in 16.2 innings against 50 outs if you will). Right handers have 26 hits in 19.1 innings (58 outs) and have struck 4 HR.
He starts ofc games strong for a couple of innings, with trouble more apt to start popping up in the third, fourth, or fifth, though he avoided those troubles in his two most recent starts.
There isn’t much ammunition for this young man, even with an arsenal of six pitches. He probably will get better when he puts a couple of those offerings on the scrap heap and learns to do whatever it is he does best, but his 4.00 ERA is back this far by a 4.13 FIP due to a lower than MLB average walk rate.
For me, I’d suggest more cutters and change ups with a usage reduction of his 4-seamer and I’m mystified by the slider at this point. The curve has some potential but seems scary when it’s up in the zone... All I know is what’s in this report, which is not like watching him pitch...not at all...
|
|
|
|
Post by utahyank on Aug 10, 2019 13:57:30 GMT -5
6 pitches.....the catcher does not have enough fingers....yeah I know....he could do that....
made me think about a player who did have 6 fingers, maybe 30 years ago...he was a pitcher I think(?)….from one of the Islands….can't remember his name...
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Aug 11, 2019 19:52:42 GMT -5
I missed getting you a report for Trent Thornton in time for his start today, but there was an earlier report. Tad busy...
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Aug 11, 2019 19:54:10 GMT -5
8/5 Vs. Baltimore Orioles / Gabriel Ynoa 1-6; 5.55 The 26 year old RH will be making his 25th appearance and 8th start of 2019. He tends to start games out well, with a 1.29 ERA in the first inning, though things begin to unravel more as each inning follows. His high leverage numbers show a .404 BA against with 3 HR allowed in 39 such AB. Batters are hitting .360 when they see him for a second at bat. He has severe reverse splits at this point with RHH batting .307 against him. His 94 MPH 4 seamer has heavy sink and is ground ball weapon. Also a bit of arm side run. He throws this about 1/3 of his pitches. His 94 MPH sinker is thrown quite hard for a sinker, has less sink and less fade than his 4-seamer. About 1/4 of his repertoire. His 84 MPH slider makes up another 1/4 of his pitch total and has 12/6 straight down movement. His 86 MPH change also has sink and arm side run. The curve is seldom seen in the low 80’s and is not effective. He has tight pitch clusters that suggest good control, but poor command, getting far too much of the center of the plate. He appears to be a pitcher that should be working as an opener or one inning at a time reliever that has been thrust into being a secondary option to start... Great scouting report, inger! He did unravel as the game went on! Bump for start of 8/12... |
|
|
|
Post by kaybli on Aug 11, 2019 19:54:40 GMT -5
I missed getting you a report for Trent Thornton in time for his start today, but there was an earlier report. Tad busy... All good. Look forward to your next report! |
|
