Post by acuraman on Nov 2, 2017 18:22:49 GMT -5
Clink link for full article. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html
1. Yu Darvish – Cubs. Six years, $160MM.
2. J.D. Martinez – Red Sox. Six years, $150MM.
3. Eric Hosmer – Royals. Six years, $132MM.
4. Jake Arrieta – Brewers. Four years, $100MM.
5. Masahiro Tanaka – Phillies. Five years, $100MM. Tanaka, 29 this month, is coming off his fourth and perhaps worst MLB season. He posted a 4.74 ERA in 30 regular season starts, with a ridiculous 21.2% of his flyballs allowed becoming home runs. It wasn’t a Yankee Stadium problem, as Tanaka was even more homer-prone on the road. On the bright side, Tanaka put up a career-best strikeout rate, a 3.77 ERA in the second half, and three excellent, homer-free postseason starts. Back in January 2014, Tanaka joined the Yankees via the Japanese baseball posting system after pitching seven years for the Rakuten Golden Eagles. With the posting fee capped at $20MM, the Yankees won the bidding over the Cubs, White Sox, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks with a seven-year, $155MM deal that included an opt-out that comes due at midnight on Saturday. The biggest wrinkle in Tanaka’s long-term prospects may be the partially torn UCL in his right elbow, which surfaced more than three years ago. Tanaka went the rehab route instead of undergoing Tommy John surgery. In 2015 Tanaka missed time with a forearm strain and had arthroscopic elbow surgery in the offseason. This year, he had a DL stint for shoulder fatigue. If Tanaka opts out, he will be walking away from three years and $67MM left on his Yankees contract. Ervin Santana was able to land a four-year deal with a rehabbed and healed UCL, and it seems that opting out is the right call for Tanaka. The Yankees could be in a position to lower their luxury tax hit by adding a year or two and reducing the average annual value of his contract. If Tanaka moves on from the Yankees, the Cubs, Nationals, Astros, Cardinals, Dodgers, Angels, Phillies, Twins, Mariners, Rangers, and Brewers could be possibilities. If he does opt out, the Yankees will assuredly issue a qualifying offer in order to collect draft-pick compensation.
6. Mike Moustakas – Braves. Five years, $85MM.
7. Lorenzo Cain – Giants. Four years, $70MM.
8. Wade Davis – Astros. Four years, $60MM.
9. Lance Lynn – Rangers. Four years, $56MM.
10. Greg Holland – Cardinals. Four years, $50MM.
11. Alex Cobb – Twins. Four years, $48MM.
12. Carlos Santana – Indians. Three years, $45MM.
13. Zack Cozart – Padres. Three years, $42MM.
14. Jay Bruce – Blue Jays. Three years, $39MM.
15. Logan Morrison – Red Sox. Three years, $36MM.
16. Addison Reed – Cubs. Four years, $36MM.
17. Todd Frazier – Mets. Three years, $33MM. Frazier, 32 in February, is a quality option at the hot corner who won’t break the bank. He’s been an above-average but unremarkable hitter for the White Sox and Yankees over the last two years, hitting .220/.322/.448 with 67 home runs. Combined with mostly above-average defense at third base and a strong clubhouse reputation, Frazier is a quietly valuable player. He’s the cheaper alternative to Mike Moustakas and could fit with the Mets, Royals, Angels, Braves, Cardinals, or Yankees.
18. Mike Minor – Dodgers. Four years, $28MM.
19. Brandon Morrow – Rockies. Three years, $24MM.
20. Jonathan Lucroy – Rockies. Two years, $24MM.
21. CC Sabathia – Yankees. Two years, $24MM. Sabathia is in the twilight of what could become a Hall of Fame career. Now 37, the big lefty has five top-five Cy Young finishes. He had a monster peak from 2006-12, winning the Cy Young award in ’07. The Yankees signed him to a record seven-year, $161MM deal in December 2008, later adding a year plus a vesting option to make it nine years in the Bronx. Sabathia posted a 3.81 ERA over 57 starts in the last two seasons, though his peripheral stats have moved in the wrong direction. He’d like to stay with the Yankees, which could mean settling for a one-year deal despite the possibility of two elsewhere. The Angels could be a good Plan B for Sabathia.
22. Yonder Alonso – Angels. Two years, $22MM.
23. Carlos Gomez – Royals. Two years, $22MM.
24. Juan Nicasio – Twins. Three years, $21MM.
25. Bryan Shaw – Red Sox. Three years, $21MM.
26. Michael Brantley – White Sox. Two years, $20MM.
27. Andrew Cashner – Athletics. Two years, $20MM.
28. Neil Walker – Brewers. Two years, $20MM.
29. Tyler Chatwood – Phillies. Three years, $20MM.
30. Jake McGee – Cubs. Three years, $18MM.
31. Jaime Garcia – Royals. Two years, $16MM.
32. Alex Avila – Yankees. Two years, $16MM. Avila is the son of Tigers GM Al Avila. Alex spent the first seven years of his big league career with the Tigers, then played one year for the White Sox before returning to Detroit. The Cubs acquired him via trade this summer, and he served as Willson Contreras’ backup. Avila has shown an excellent bat at times, including this year as well as his banner 2011 season. He managed only 124 games from 2015-16 due to injury, but was able to avoid the DL this year. It’s eye-opening to see that among players with 300 plate appearances in 2017, the only one who posted a higher hard-contact rate than Avila’s 48.7 percent was former teammate J.D. Martinez. Avila, 31 in January, will likely join fellow catcher Welington Castillo in seeking a multiyear deal and regular playing time.
33. Jhoulys Chacin – Reds. Two years, $14MM.
34. Welington Castillo – Athletics. Two years, $14MM.
35. Eduardo Nunez – Blue Jays. Two years, $14MM.
36. Anthony Swarzak – Brewers. Two years, $14MM.
37. Steve Cishek – Rangers. Two years, $14MM.
38. Brandon Kintzler – Nationals. Two years, $14MM.
39. Jon Jay – Rangers. Two years, $14MM.
40. Carlos Gonzalez – Orioles. One year, $12MM.
41. Tommy Hunter – Braves. Two years, $12MM.
42. Jarrod Dyson – Pirates. Two years, $12MM.
43. Pat Neshek – Mariners. Two years, $12MM.
44. Tony Watson – Blue Jays. Two years, $12MM.
45. Howie Kendrick – Giants. Two years, $12MM.
46. Jason Vargas – Orioles. One year, $10MM.
47. Chris Tillman – Tigers. One year, $10MM.
48. Lucas Duda – Mariners. One year, $6MM.
49. Michael Pineda – Rays. Two years, $6MM. Earlier this year, Pineda looked like a potential top ten free agent despite his continued problems allowing home runs. However, he went down for Tommy John surgery in July, and likely won’t be much of a factor in 2018. Pineda, just 29 in January, put up big strikeout rates and strong control in his Yankees career and makes for a nice upside play if he’s willing to sign a two-year deal.
50. Miles Mikolas – Padres. Two years, $10MM.
1. Yu Darvish – Cubs. Six years, $160MM.
2. J.D. Martinez – Red Sox. Six years, $150MM.
3. Eric Hosmer – Royals. Six years, $132MM.
4. Jake Arrieta – Brewers. Four years, $100MM.
5. Masahiro Tanaka – Phillies. Five years, $100MM. Tanaka, 29 this month, is coming off his fourth and perhaps worst MLB season. He posted a 4.74 ERA in 30 regular season starts, with a ridiculous 21.2% of his flyballs allowed becoming home runs. It wasn’t a Yankee Stadium problem, as Tanaka was even more homer-prone on the road. On the bright side, Tanaka put up a career-best strikeout rate, a 3.77 ERA in the second half, and three excellent, homer-free postseason starts. Back in January 2014, Tanaka joined the Yankees via the Japanese baseball posting system after pitching seven years for the Rakuten Golden Eagles. With the posting fee capped at $20MM, the Yankees won the bidding over the Cubs, White Sox, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks with a seven-year, $155MM deal that included an opt-out that comes due at midnight on Saturday. The biggest wrinkle in Tanaka’s long-term prospects may be the partially torn UCL in his right elbow, which surfaced more than three years ago. Tanaka went the rehab route instead of undergoing Tommy John surgery. In 2015 Tanaka missed time with a forearm strain and had arthroscopic elbow surgery in the offseason. This year, he had a DL stint for shoulder fatigue. If Tanaka opts out, he will be walking away from three years and $67MM left on his Yankees contract. Ervin Santana was able to land a four-year deal with a rehabbed and healed UCL, and it seems that opting out is the right call for Tanaka. The Yankees could be in a position to lower their luxury tax hit by adding a year or two and reducing the average annual value of his contract. If Tanaka moves on from the Yankees, the Cubs, Nationals, Astros, Cardinals, Dodgers, Angels, Phillies, Twins, Mariners, Rangers, and Brewers could be possibilities. If he does opt out, the Yankees will assuredly issue a qualifying offer in order to collect draft-pick compensation.
6. Mike Moustakas – Braves. Five years, $85MM.
7. Lorenzo Cain – Giants. Four years, $70MM.
8. Wade Davis – Astros. Four years, $60MM.
9. Lance Lynn – Rangers. Four years, $56MM.
10. Greg Holland – Cardinals. Four years, $50MM.
11. Alex Cobb – Twins. Four years, $48MM.
12. Carlos Santana – Indians. Three years, $45MM.
13. Zack Cozart – Padres. Three years, $42MM.
14. Jay Bruce – Blue Jays. Three years, $39MM.
15. Logan Morrison – Red Sox. Three years, $36MM.
16. Addison Reed – Cubs. Four years, $36MM.
17. Todd Frazier – Mets. Three years, $33MM. Frazier, 32 in February, is a quality option at the hot corner who won’t break the bank. He’s been an above-average but unremarkable hitter for the White Sox and Yankees over the last two years, hitting .220/.322/.448 with 67 home runs. Combined with mostly above-average defense at third base and a strong clubhouse reputation, Frazier is a quietly valuable player. He’s the cheaper alternative to Mike Moustakas and could fit with the Mets, Royals, Angels, Braves, Cardinals, or Yankees.
18. Mike Minor – Dodgers. Four years, $28MM.
19. Brandon Morrow – Rockies. Three years, $24MM.
20. Jonathan Lucroy – Rockies. Two years, $24MM.
21. CC Sabathia – Yankees. Two years, $24MM. Sabathia is in the twilight of what could become a Hall of Fame career. Now 37, the big lefty has five top-five Cy Young finishes. He had a monster peak from 2006-12, winning the Cy Young award in ’07. The Yankees signed him to a record seven-year, $161MM deal in December 2008, later adding a year plus a vesting option to make it nine years in the Bronx. Sabathia posted a 3.81 ERA over 57 starts in the last two seasons, though his peripheral stats have moved in the wrong direction. He’d like to stay with the Yankees, which could mean settling for a one-year deal despite the possibility of two elsewhere. The Angels could be a good Plan B for Sabathia.
22. Yonder Alonso – Angels. Two years, $22MM.
23. Carlos Gomez – Royals. Two years, $22MM.
24. Juan Nicasio – Twins. Three years, $21MM.
25. Bryan Shaw – Red Sox. Three years, $21MM.
26. Michael Brantley – White Sox. Two years, $20MM.
27. Andrew Cashner – Athletics. Two years, $20MM.
28. Neil Walker – Brewers. Two years, $20MM.
29. Tyler Chatwood – Phillies. Three years, $20MM.
30. Jake McGee – Cubs. Three years, $18MM.
31. Jaime Garcia – Royals. Two years, $16MM.
32. Alex Avila – Yankees. Two years, $16MM. Avila is the son of Tigers GM Al Avila. Alex spent the first seven years of his big league career with the Tigers, then played one year for the White Sox before returning to Detroit. The Cubs acquired him via trade this summer, and he served as Willson Contreras’ backup. Avila has shown an excellent bat at times, including this year as well as his banner 2011 season. He managed only 124 games from 2015-16 due to injury, but was able to avoid the DL this year. It’s eye-opening to see that among players with 300 plate appearances in 2017, the only one who posted a higher hard-contact rate than Avila’s 48.7 percent was former teammate J.D. Martinez. Avila, 31 in January, will likely join fellow catcher Welington Castillo in seeking a multiyear deal and regular playing time.
33. Jhoulys Chacin – Reds. Two years, $14MM.
34. Welington Castillo – Athletics. Two years, $14MM.
35. Eduardo Nunez – Blue Jays. Two years, $14MM.
36. Anthony Swarzak – Brewers. Two years, $14MM.
37. Steve Cishek – Rangers. Two years, $14MM.
38. Brandon Kintzler – Nationals. Two years, $14MM.
39. Jon Jay – Rangers. Two years, $14MM.
40. Carlos Gonzalez – Orioles. One year, $12MM.
41. Tommy Hunter – Braves. Two years, $12MM.
42. Jarrod Dyson – Pirates. Two years, $12MM.
43. Pat Neshek – Mariners. Two years, $12MM.
44. Tony Watson – Blue Jays. Two years, $12MM.
45. Howie Kendrick – Giants. Two years, $12MM.
46. Jason Vargas – Orioles. One year, $10MM.
47. Chris Tillman – Tigers. One year, $10MM.
48. Lucas Duda – Mariners. One year, $6MM.
49. Michael Pineda – Rays. Two years, $6MM. Earlier this year, Pineda looked like a potential top ten free agent despite his continued problems allowing home runs. However, he went down for Tommy John surgery in July, and likely won’t be much of a factor in 2018. Pineda, just 29 in January, put up big strikeout rates and strong control in his Yankees career and makes for a nice upside play if he’s willing to sign a two-year deal.
50. Miles Mikolas – Padres. Two years, $10MM.
