|
|
Post by kaybli on Mar 13, 2020 11:23:04 GMT -5
Noetsi starts an injury thread and it snowballs into a world-wide pandemic. Gee, thanks Russ!... 😂 Hope you have enough toilet paper...  Look what you did noetsi! |
|
|
|
Post by noetsi on Mar 13, 2020 18:39:13 GMT -5
Noetsi starts an injury thread and it snowballs into a world-wide pandemic. Gee, thanks Russ!... 😂 Hope you have enough toilet paper... Look what you did noetsi! I have huge quantities on had since I projected the problem ahead of time  I was trying to figure out how to modify the time series projections I do at work to address the COVID19 virus and I realized I had no idea how to do that.  |
|
|
|
Post by noetsi on Mar 16, 2020 12:18:59 GMT -5
Looks like we get several months to get well.
|
|
|
|
Post by greatfatness on Mar 16, 2020 14:23:41 GMT -5
Aaron Judge’s stress fracture seems pretty trivial right now, doesn’t it?
Looking forward to getting back to being able to think about trivial things again.
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Mar 16, 2020 14:40:56 GMT -5
Look what you did noetsi! I have huge quantities on had since I projected the problem ahead of time I was trying to figure out how to modify the time series projections I do at work to address the COVID19 virus and I realized I had no idea how to do that. It would seem the key would be understanding the incubation rate, then you would have to know the effective multiplication capability of the virus. I believe I heard or read somewhere of a four day incubation period with the potential to double the population infected every four days. The problem with a progression series would be that there are several unknown factors, including the voluntary semi quarantine (human separation). There are suggestions that warm weather could slow the virus, though that is not happening in some warm weather countries at this time. I would suggest that any effort at projection is folly. Don’t waste your time... |
|
|
|
Post by noetsi on Mar 16, 2020 15:08:46 GMT -5
It is what I do for a living Inger.  Well that and build SQL code. My modeling really aims at the economic impact of this illness. And since it has been more than a century since there has been anything like that, and limited data even on that, and we don't really understand our spending process... I use robust models |
|
|
|
Post by kaybli on Mar 16, 2020 17:29:55 GMT -5
Aaron Judge’s stress fracture seems pretty trivial right now, doesn’t it? Looking forward to getting back to being able to think about trivial things again. You said it, GF. |
|
|
|
Post by rizzuto on Mar 16, 2020 18:13:56 GMT -5
I’ve always preferred robust models.  |
|
|
|
Post by kaybli on Mar 16, 2020 18:23:06 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Mar 16, 2020 18:53:09 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by kaybli on Mar 16, 2020 19:07:11 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by noetsi on Mar 18, 2020 12:10:38 GMT -5
For a disease that kills relatively few we are panicking. What happens when a disease comes around that does kill lots of people.
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Mar 18, 2020 12:36:19 GMT -5
For a disease that kills relatively few we are panicking. What happens when a disease comes around that does kill lots of people. This has been a test. This is only a test. Had there been an actual emergency the nation would be in a toilet paper and hand sanitizer shortage and people would be hoarding foods with a short shelf life... |
|
|
|
Post by greatfatness on Mar 18, 2020 12:49:24 GMT -5
For a disease that kills relatively few we are panicking. What happens when a disease comes around that does kill lots of people. This has been a test. This is only a test. Had there been an actual emergency the nation would be in a toilet paper and hand sanitizer shortage and people would be hoarding foods with a short shelf life... "For a disease that kills relatively few" is an uninformed opinion. It hasn't killed you yet because you don't have it. Yet. Read the analysis from Imperial College released yesterday. The nitwits hoarding toilet paper are panicking. The government leaders ordering people to stay home are not panicking, they're trying to protect hospitals from being overrun by morons like the people who filled Broadway in Nashville this weekend partying. It is extremely contagious and there's no natural immunity to it yet and no vaccine available yet. |
|
|
|
Post by inger on Mar 18, 2020 12:53:04 GMT -5
For a disease that kills relatively few we are panicking. What happens when a disease comes around that does kill lots of people. This has been a test. This is only a test. Had there been an actual emergency the nation would be in a toilet paper and hand sanitizer shortage and people would be hoarding foods with a short shelf life... |
|
Look what you did noetsi! 
Well that and build SQL code.
