Quick Yankee Notes

I've been saying for several years that Stanton should be doing more yoga and stretching and less power lifting.  Hopefully this can keep him on the field.  

Yes, the home run trot is not for all occasions.

Damned near needs a walker for that…

Yankees, Luis Gonzalez Agree To Minor League Deal
The Yankees and free agent outfielder Luis Gonzalez have agreed to a minor league contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He’ll be in Major League camp this spring.

The 28-year-old Gonzalez has played in parts of three big league seasons between the White Sox and Giants, compiling a .253/.328/.368 batting line in 363 plate appearances. The 2017 third-round pick once rated as one of the better prospects in the ChiSox’ system, but he hasn’t yet found sustained success in the big leagues.

Gonzalez got out to a hot start in 2022, his first season with the Giants, after coming over from the Sox via waivers late in the 2021 season. Through June 21 of the 2022 season, Gonzalez was hitting .302/.361/.447 in 180 plate appearances, but a lower back strain shelved him for the next two and a half weeks. He was activated on July 9 but returned to the injured list with another back strain about six weeks later — this time missing the remainder of the season. Gonzalez may never have been fully healthy upon returning, as he batted only .204/.282/.270 in 170 trips to the plate between those two IL stints.

The back troubles persisted into the 2023 season, and Gonzalez eventually underwent surgery to repair a herniated disc. That procedure kept him out from mid-March through early July. He didn’t make it back to San Francisco’s big league roster but did suit up for 31 minor league games following the operation, during which he posted a .248/.350/.352 batting line in 123 trips to the plate.

The Yankees obviously have no room in the big league outfield after acquiring Juan Soto, Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo in trades this offseason. Soto and Verdugo will flank Aaron Judge, who’ll be the team’s primary center fielder, while Grisham will give them a lefty-swinging fourth outfielder with a plus glove to come off the bench late in games. Like Grisham, Gonzalez is a lefty bat with experience at all three outfield slots. The Yankees have a trio of depth outfielders — Everson Pereira, Estevan Florial and recent waiver claim Oscar Gonzalez — all on the 40-man roster ahead of their new signing. Gonzalez seems likely to open the year in Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre.

www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/yankees-luis-gonzalez-agree-to-minor-league-deal.html

And roid history, too…

I really didn’t want to contemplate a Plan B for the Yankees’ pursuit of Yamamoto, but here we are. The short answer to the luxury tax question: yes, the Yankees should absolutely be willing to go over the last luxury tax tier. They have a nearly-shut window with this core of players, and after the acquisition of 2 outfielders on one-year deals, they have to keep spending to make an elite roster. The Yankees have the money to spend well in excess of the final luxury tax threshold and still make a profit that would make even the most ardent capitalist blush. I’ve officially hit the point where I’m sick of hearing about the luxury tax threshold. If the player makes sense, the Yankees should spend.

As for Plan B: I think we’re about to witness an explosion of wheeling and dealing. At least 6 teams were very seriously involved in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, and I expect that most of those teams will be looking for good starting pitching to fill out their rosters. I don’t view Yamamoto’s contract in a context that links it to the contracts the other good starters on the market (namely Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell). Neither of those guys were going to sign before Yamamoto signed his deal, as any agent worth his/her salt would want to really understand what kind of budget their prospective teams are working with, but by the same token, no one thinks Monty or Snell are in the same category as Yamamoto as a pitcher. I don’t think their deals will be appreciably different in a post-Yamamoto landscape, but maybe their agents are smarter than I am.

The big question is how the Yankees handle their starting rotation. I think that it’s pretty clear that the Yankees need more than one starting pitcher this off-season. The potential exists that Nestor or Rodon can return to form next season and be appropriate Robins to Cole’s Batman. In fact, I’d bet pretty hard that at least one of the two gets back to being an excellent #2 for 160-ish innings. However, the Yankees need good innings to fill beyond that, and getting someone who they can pencil in for 170+ innings is paramount. The key debate among Yankee fans right now is the relative merits of a trade versus a free agent signing. Let’s have some fun with my favorite exercise:

Player A: 94 GS, 3.48 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.6 K/BB

Player B: 93 GS, 2.94 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 4.48 K/BB

As you can see, no fancy stats here, just the bottom line. The above are each player’ statistics from 2021-2023. They have made a nearly identical number of starts. Both have been well above league average performance, though Player B has been an order of magnitude better in every aspect. The choice appears easy.

However, what if I told you that each of the above statistical measures backed up for Player B in every year of this evaluation? What if you saw that Player B had his walk rate, strikeout rate, and run prevention statistics degrade in each year of this evaluation, while Player A was stable, or slightly better year-over-year?

Most of us would agree that knowing the above, the two pitchers are very close in terms of bottom-line performance, at least as far as realistic expectations moving forward.

Player A is Jordan Montgomery. Player B is Corbin Burnes. Monty can be acquired for cash. Burnes will require that the Yankees further gut their upper-minors and young MLB depth. Don’t get me wrong, I really like Corbin Burnes in a vacuum, but when compared to Monty, I’m not sure it’s worth emptying the farm for 1 year of Burnes.

Let’s also dispel one very common misconception while we’re here. The common media narrative tells us that Monty was traded by the Yankees, and the Cardinals immediately changed his pitch mix to unlock a better pitcher. It’s a fun narrative! Really compelling stuff…except it doesn’t pass the sniff test.

Monty did increase his sinker usage over the last couple of years, but it wasn’t at the expense of his off-speed pitches or breaking balls, generally. Monty drastically decreased his cutter usage and modestly dropped his 4-seam usage. The narrative that Monty used an anti-fastball approach with the Yankees is absolutely false, and resolutely disproven by the above chart. If we look at individual pitches, Monty changes his mix within the 3 primary groups constantly. In a previous generation, we’d call him a crafty lefty, and that’s what crafty lefties do over time: they constantly change. However, Monty's general pitch mix has largely remained the same since Monty returned from TJS.

Montgomery is as consistent a starting pitcher as we know in modern baseball. I have maintained since he was a prospect that he had all the makings of a good #3 starter. Prior to his initial trade from the Yankees, most people disagreed, but have since seen the light. The word is that Monty is very open to a return to the Yankees, and I think it makes a lot of sense. I think the Yankees should bring Monty home; he’s a good pitcher, and all reports have indicated that he was very popular in the clubhouse. Bringing back Monty is step 1.

Step 2 is to add depth. I think the Yankees should be looking to get Clarke Schmidt back into the bullpen in the Mike King role, where I think he’s best suited. As a 1-3 inning pitcher (and a guy who can make a spot start on occasion), I think Schmidt will thrive and be more valuable than he is as a replaceable 5th starter. All of you will hate me for this, but I’d go grab Frankie Montas. Player Development staff down in Tampa raved about Montas’ commitment to mentoring the young guys down there, and his rehab starts showed that the stuff that makes Montas a tantalizing talent remains. Can he pitch more than 160 innings in 2024? I’m not sure, but I’m skeptical of the guys remaining on the trade market as well. I’d sign Montas to a 1-year “prove-it” deal, let him show us the guy that posted a 3.37 ERA in 180+ innings in 2021, and wait to see what shakes free at the trade deadline.

Beyond that, I think that the Yankees need to go out and acquire a premium arm or two for the bullpen. Go sign Jordan Hicks, and let all of the other good bullpen arms the Yankees have already slot in beneath him. I think the bullpen has the chance to be really good, but supplementing it with a big-time fireballer would solidify the bullpen’s spot as a top-5 bullpen in baseball. Luis Gil should return this year, and is well-suited to be a premium bullpen arm.

Two starting pitchers and a bullpen arm will almost certainly cost less than Yamamoto and a bullpen arm would have, but I actually think the Yankees can still make a well-rounded, championship-caliber pitching staff even without Yamamoto.
www.startspreadingthenews.blog/post/sstn-mailbag-plan-b-after-yamamoto