Post by jiminy on Jan 19, 2024 11:15:46 GMT -5
2024 ZiPS Projections: New York Yankees
blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-new-york-yankees/
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ZiPS Projections
Batters
If I’ve learned anything from two decades of projection work (and people getting mad at that projection work), it’s that fans are way too optimistic about teams when everything goes great and way too pessimistic after things have gone awry.
The 2022 Yankees were a good example of this. After a first half in which they went 58-23, good for a .716 winning percentage and a Pythagorean win percentage that nearly matched, ZiPS only projected the team to go 45-36 the rest of the way. “Knave!” they shouted at me on Twitter. “Vagabond! Miscreant!” OK, maybe they didn’t use those words exactly, but there was bewilderment and more than a touch of anger that I would disrespect the Bronx Bombers so. In the end, the Yankees actually were four wins worse than that projection in the second half.
And just like things are never as amazing as they seem when everything goes your way, the reverse is true, with the Yankees again being a good example. They had their worst season since 1992 in 2023, and based on how they’ve been talked about over the last six months or so, you’d think they were a glorified Triple-A team. But the Yankees weren’t that bad — they went 82-80 in a division without a true doormat team to beat up on. That record was all of seven wins below their preseason projection, a miss that barely merits raising an eyebrow, and certainly doesn’t justify floating Brian Cashman out to sea (or bunting more).
There were more humdrum reasons for the Yankees’ failures than an overabundance of analytics. Their most valuable player missed a third of the season. Their big pitching signing missed more than half the season and was awful when he was healthy. The dude who led the rotation in ERA in 2022 missed most of the year. A couple guys in the decline phase of their careers took big steps back. Those misfortunes can happen to any team, and they happened to to the Yankees in 2023.
There are some serious long-term concerns and they could have done more, but they’ve done an admirable job patching things up for 2024. Bounce-back seasons from Anthony Rizzo and especially Giancarlo Stanton aren’t exactly a given, so the Yankees rented the best hitter anyone can reasonably obtain in Juan Soto. Given the trajectories of Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón, they went after Yoshinobu Yamamoto (and failed), but were able to sign Marcus Stroman. Harrison Bader didn’t work out in 2023, so the team’s trying again with Alex Verdugo.
As it stands now, first base and designated hitter are the weakest positions on the depth chart, meaning the Yankees have fulfilled one of their unstated goals: protecting against the potential toastitude of Rizzo and Stanton by making sure the success of the lineup isn’t reliant on them returning to form. I’m bearish on their futures, but their production now matters a good deal less to the 2024 Yankees than it did to the Yankees of the last few years. Soto is a beast, as is Aaron Judge when he’s healthy, and while Gleyber Torres isn’t quite the player he looked like he’d be after his first couple of seasons, he’s still solidly above-average overall and isn’t being depended on to play a position (shortstop) where he’s overmatched.
There are still a few other question marks in the lineup. Verdugo’s projection takes a hit compared to where it was in the Red Sox rundown by virtue of ZiPS thinking his medium-power, line-drive bat was more ideally suited to Fenway, but he’s still a legitimate starter in left. Catcher only projects as average because of the uncertainty surrounding Austin Wells‘ defense; if he plays better defense or Jose Trevino gets more playing time than our depth chart currently anticipate, there’s a lot of room for the projected WAR to go up.
Depth at the power positions is an issue and so is the fact that a lot of the team’s offense is tied up in two players, making the Yankees susceptible to injury. But there’s at least depth in the infield with Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera hanging around.
Pitchers
Gerrit Cole always goes into the season as a Cy Young contender and there’s no reason to feel differently this year, other than the slight fear you should have with any pitcher. ZiPS projects a better year from Rodón, but given his injury history, I’m more inclined to believe the 114 innings ZiPS is projecting than the more bountiful number in our depth chart. Stroman is solid, but the raw numbers may not be as exciting without Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner behind him. ZiPS remains hopeful about Cortes, and while the computer isn’t super into Clarke Schmidt, that’s a perfectly serviceable projection for a fourth or fifth starter.
Who the Yankees turn to if injuries hit is a concern. Clayton Beeter is next on our depth chart and ZiPS is not at all enthused by the possibility of him being the de facto sixth starter. It likes Chase Hampton a lot, but I doubt the team will be that aggressive promoting him in 2024, and the computer only likes Will Warren incrementally more than Beeter. If ZiPS is correct, the Yankees better pray that they don’t end up with that many innings from Luke Weaver. While they have missed out on some of the starters they’ve gone after, they could certainly make another low-key addition or two. When running sims for 2024, everything blew up pretty quickly in the ones where the projected starters got a lot fewer innings than expected, giving the rotation a fairly low floor for a team with a good overall projection.
The bullpen pales in comparison to many of the team’s bullpens over the last decade, when New York regularly ranked at or near the top of the league. And getting Soto involved giving up a couple live arms who might have fattened up the ‘pen. ZiPS likes the front five guys (Holmes, Loáisiga, Kahnle, Hamilton, Effross), but its mathematical faith dissipates when you get to the third-tier relievers. Perhaps Luis Gil can help here (or in the rotation), but you don’t want to put too many eggs in the basket of a pitcher with 33 innings in the majors who is coming off Tommy John surgery.
If you add up the numbers on the Yankees’ depth chart — ignoring the fact that you explicitly waive any rights to restitution should you be karate-chopped upon doing so — you’ll get a win total in the low 90s. However, the simulations are coming up a bit short of that largely because, outside of the infield, ZiPS believes that New York’s depth is thinner than most of the other good teams. Right now, ZiPS is banking between 86-90 wins, which wouldn’t be that bad considering the challenges the team has had to fix on the fly this winter. However, that would probably be a huge disappointment to Yankees fans and might speed up the calls for the post-Cashman era to start.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Juan Soto L 25 LF 660 523 101 144 25 1 33 103 131 108 11 4
Aaron Judge R 32 RF 552 461 89 125 20 0 40 101 84 149 5 1
Gleyber Torres R 27 2B 629 560 79 152 28 1 24 79 60 108 11 5
Trent Grisham L 27 CF 537 461 68 101 25 2 19 61 64 138 13 3
Anthony Volpe R 23 SS 598 532 71 119 31 4 19 74 52 152 23 5
DJ LeMahieu R 35 3B 536 476 61 122 19 2 11 51 54 98 3 2
Oswald Peraza R 24 SS 506 463 61 113 19 2 15 62 33 117 18 6
Jorbit Vivas L 23 2B 590 522 75 129 22 4 9 63 44 81 10 3
Alex Verdugo L 28 RF 591 537 80 144 32 2 15 61 45 92 4 2
Jose Trevino R 31 C 277 261 26 62 12 1 6 31 12 46 1 1
Jared Serna R 22 2B 544 507 72 119 22 2 14 63 31 115 13 5
Jasson Domínguez B 21 CF 591 528 80 122 21 4 16 66 58 167 23 6
Austin Wells L 24 C 475 426 51 97 21 1 17 63 40 125 5 1
Agustin Ramirez R 22 C 471 429 57 101 21 0 14 54 36 102 6 2
Caleb Durbin R 24 2B 351 315 46 79 16 2 4 38 22 35 18 5
Anthony Rizzo L 34 1B 458 398 52 93 17 1 18 56 41 93 2 3
Brandon Lockridge R 27 CF 374 341 42 79 14 2 7 40 24 107 19 3
Bubba Thompson R 26 CF 448 414 60 97 17 4 9 52 24 126 26 6
Oswaldo Cabrera B 25 LF 438 399 50 93 20 1 13 52 32 107 10 3
Jesus Rodriguez R 22 3B 446 407 49 98 16 3 7 47 31 84 9 3
Giancarlo Stanton R 34 RF 455 402 48 92 15 0 25 69 48 133 0 1
Ben Rortvedt L 26 C 234 209 25 43 8 0 7 27 20 66 1 1
Franchy Cordero L 29 RF 418 374 52 88 21 1 14 54 39 123 6 1
Edinson Duran R 21 C 123 111 16 26 4 1 3 16 6 26 1 1
Aaron Palensky R 25 LF 372 325 48 68 17 3 13 51 35 114 9 2
Eduardo Torrealba R 25 3B 292 265 30 60 7 1 2 23 17 53 6 2
Carlos Narvaez R 25 C 379 332 39 66 12 0 9 39 38 118 3 1
Ben Rice L 25 C 309 272 39 65 12 1 12 45 27 70 4 1
Luis González L 28 RF 316 281 35 64 11 1 7 35 28 73 9 3
Christopher Familia L 24 LF 276 252 38 60 11 1 12 41 17 69 1 1
Benjamin Cowles R 24 2B 425 382 42 77 15 2 7 44 33 146 9 3
Everson Pereira R 23 LF 443 405 54 89 16 3 15 57 31 147 10 3
Elijah Dunham L 26 LF 501 451 57 97 23 2 12 55 42 145 19 5
Tyler Hardman R 25 3B 365 332 42 67 10 2 17 51 26 136 5 2
Matt Pita R 27 2B 144 131 18 28 7 0 5 19 8 42 3 2
Spencer Jones L 23 CF 526 489 56 105 21 3 13 59 32 174 22 7
Michael Hermosillo R 29 RF 236 209 28 45 8 1 8 34 15 69 5 2
Oscar Gonzalez R 26 RF 538 513 57 128 25 2 18 75 19 124 1 1
Jeter Downs R 25 SS 352 310 42 61 12 1 9 38 33 110 11 3
Grant Richardson L 24 RF 356 324 40 64 10 2 13 45 24 136 9 2
Max Burt R 27 2B 357 329 43 68 13 1 8 38 21 113 10 2
T.J. Rumfield L 24 1B 336 300 34 65 13 0 9 38 27 80 4 2
Wilmer Difo B 32 SS 330 298 35 66 10 1 4 30 27 74 9 4
Nelson Medina R 23 CF 239 220 23 43 7 3 5 25 17 92 5 3
Jared Wegner R 24 RF 92 87 8 18 5 0 3 12 5 32 1 1
Kyle Battle R 26 LF 122 108 12 19 5 0 2 10 10 42 5 1
Delvin Perez R 25 2B 356 328 40 68 9 2 4 31 22 114 14 3
Josh Breaux R 26 C 319 301 30 63 12 0 12 40 16 94 1 1
Anthony Seigler B 25 C 307 261 34 50 12 0 4 24 41 74 4 3
Chad Bell L 27 1B 352 322 32 62 9 1 11 38 28 144 1 1
Spencer Henson R 26 1B 332 302 37 60 13 0 10 41 20 109 1 1
Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Juan Soto 660 .275 .421 .516 160 .241 .291 -3 5.5 .399 118
Aaron Judge 552 .271 .384 .575 162 .304 .313 6 5.5 .399 103
Gleyber Torres 629 .271 .342 .454 119 .182 .299 -2 3.4 .343 91
Trent Grisham 537 .219 .321 .406 101 .187 .270 7 2.7 .318 64
Anthony Volpe 598 .224 .302 .404 94 .180 .277 2 2.4 .307 72
DJ LeMahieu 536 .256 .334 .374 97 .118 .302 8 2.4 .313 61
Oswald Peraza 506 .244 .306 .391 93 .147 .296 3 2.0 .305 62
Jorbit Vivas 590 .247 .327 .356 91 .109 .278 3 1.9 .304 64
Alex Verdugo 591 .268 .327 .419 106 .151 .300 3 1.6 .322 75
Jose Trevino 277 .238 .272 .360 74 .123 .268 10 1.3 .274 26
Jared Serna 544 .235 .285 .369 80 .134 .278 7 1.2 .285 58
Jasson Domínguez 591 .231 .308 .377 90 .146 .307 -2 1.2 .300 68
Austin Wells 475 .228 .301 .401 93 .174 .282 -6 1.2 .305 53
Agustin Ramirez 471 .235 .297 .382 88 .147 .278 -3 1.1 .296 51
Caleb Durbin 351 .251 .322 .352 88 .102 .272 1 1.0 .300 41
Anthony Rizzo 458 .234 .330 .417 106 .183 .261 1 1.0 .325 56
Brandon Lockridge 374 .232 .288 .346 76 .114 .317 5 0.8 .279 39
Bubba Thompson 448 .234 .284 .360 78 .126 .315 2 0.7 .281 50
Oswaldo Cabrera 438 .233 .292 .386 87 .153 .287 6 0.7 .294 48
Jesus Rodriguez 446 .241 .303 .346 80 .106 .288 3 0.7 .286 46
Giancarlo Stanton 455 .229 .314 .453 110 .224 .275 -6 0.6 .329 58
Ben Rortvedt 234 .206 .286 .344 75 .139 .265 2 0.5 .280 21
Franchy Cordero 418 .235 .312 .409 99 .174 .312 -3 0.4 .313 49
Edinson Duran 123 .234 .301 .369 86 .135 .280 0 0.3 .295 13
Aaron Palensky 372 .209 .304 .400 94 .191 .278 -2 0.3 .307 42
Eduardo Torrealba 292 .226 .284 .283 59 .057 .276 8 0.3 .256 23
Carlos Narvaez 379 .199 .290 .316 69 .117 .278 0 0.3 .272 31
Ben Rice 309 .239 .324 .423 106 .184 .279 -14 0.2 .325 38
Luis González 316 .228 .304 .349 81 .121 .284 3 0.2 .289 33
Christopher Familia 276 .238 .301 .433 101 .194 .281 -3 0.2 .316 33
Benjamin Cowles 425 .202 .275 .306 62 .105 .306 6 0.1 .260 35
Everson Pereira 443 .220 .282 .385 83 .165 .305 2 0.1 .290 47
Elijah Dunham 501 .215 .289 .355 78 .140 .289 3 0.0 .284 52
Tyler Hardman 365 .202 .263 .398 80 .196 .279 -2 0.0 .283 37
Matt Pita 144 .214 .278 .382 81 .168 .274 -2 0.0 .287 15
Spencer Jones 526 .215 .266 .350 70 .135 .305 1 -0.1 .269 53
Michael Hermosillo 236 .215 .297 .378 86 .163 .280 -1 -0.1 .297 25
Oscar Gonzalez 538 .250 .279 .411 89 .162 .296 -1 -0.1 .295 59
Jeter Downs 352 .197 .284 .329 70 .132 .272 -4 -0.1 .274 32
Grant Richardson 356 .198 .267 .361 73 .164 .291 3 -0.2 .275 34
Max Burt 357 .207 .263 .325 63 .119 .288 1 -0.2 .259 31
T.J. Rumfield 336 .217 .292 .350 78 .133 .265 2 -0.2 .284 32
Wilmer Difo 330 .221 .286 .302 64 .081 .282 -2 -0.3 .263 29
Nelson Medina 239 .195 .255 .323 60 .127 .309 1 -0.4 .252 20
Jared Wegner 92 .207 .250 .368 69 .161 .288 -2 -0.4 .267 9
Kyle Battle 122 .176 .262 .278 51 .102 .266 0 -0.5 .246 9
Delvin Perez 356 .207 .267 .284 54 .076 .305 0 -0.6 .247 29
Josh Breaux 319 .209 .251 .369 70 .159 .262 -7 -0.7 .266 28
Anthony Seigler 307 .192 .303 .284 65 .092 .251 -8 -0.7 .269 24
Chad Bell 352 .193 .259 .329 62 .137 .305 4 -0.8 .258 28
Spencer Henson 332 .199 .262 .341 66 .142 .273 1 -0.9 .263 28
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Juan Soto Rusty Staub Mel Ott Carl Yastrzemski
Aaron Judge Mickey Mantle Manny Ramirez Jim Edmonds
Gleyber Torres Dustin Pedroia Marcus Giles Edgardo Alfonzo
Trent Grisham Rick Miller Gary Geiger Adolfo Phillips
Anthony Volpe James Mouton Dick Schofield Davey Johnson
DJ LeMahieu Wade Boggs Marco Scutaro Dustin Pedroia
Oswald Peraza Ryne Sandberg Freddie Patek Onix Concepcion
Jorbit Vivas Nicky Lopez Alberto Callaspo Russ Adams
Alex Verdugo Norm Larker Lloyd Waner Whitey Lockman
Jose Trevino Brayan Peña Eddie Pérez John Stephenson
Jared Serna Bill Spiers Ricky Adams Jason Romano
Jasson Domínguez Rick Manning Shin-Soo Choo 추신수 Stan Javier
Austin Wells Devin Mesoraco Joe Ferguson Ernie DiStasi
Agustin Ramirez Brad Gulden Matt Sinatro Ron Brand
Caleb Durbin Joe Strain Ben Orloff Don DeDonatis
Anthony Rizzo Hanley Ramirez Dan Driessen Greg Brock
Brandon Lockridge Jeff Stone Darrell Ceciliani Robert Stotsky
Bubba Thompson Keanon Simon Carlos Gómez Bobby Mitchell
Oswaldo Cabrera Curtis Brown Kevin Bass Paul Householder
Jesus Rodriguez Kevin Drury Aarom Baldiris 발디리스 Mike White
Giancarlo Stanton Khris Davis Lucas Duda Ryan Howard
Ben Rortvedt Logan Johnson Richard Sauget Don Berti
Franchy Cordero Dustan Mohr Brian Goodwin Brent Krause
Edinson Duran Jose Stela Jason Belcher Tony Tornay
Aaron Palensky Ruben Rivera Brad Komminsk John Hale
Eduardo Torrealba Dean Bowyer Mark Hopper Nate Samson
Carlos Narvaez Jim Jones Tom Lundstedt Danny Ardoin
Ben Rice Charlie O’Brien J.R. Towles Ed Ott
Luis González Curt Ford Jerome Walton Jose Ortiz
Christopher Familia Kellen Kulbacki Jim King Terrell Salazar
Benjamin Cowles Victor LaRose Tim Barker Mike Neal
Everson Pereira Faye Throneberry Michael Saunders Reggie Sanders
Elijah Dunham Cesar Crespo Blake Tekotte Ka’ai Tom
Tyler Hardman Ed Moxey Tim Pyznarski Kelly Gruber
Matt Pita Doug Hansen Terry Shumpert Gookie Dawkins
Spencer Jones Lou Brock Kory DeHaan Al Martin마틴
Michael Hermosillo Kenny Williams Hiram Bocachica Ryan Cordell
Oscar Gonzalez Chris Bourjos Glenn Wilson Cameron Drew
Jeter Downs Jeremy Sy Joseph Edgley John Tolisano
Grant Richardson John Ramistella Rickey Holifield Andrew Dyes
Max Burt Rouglas Odor Teuris Olivares Jorge Mejia
T.J. Rumfield Mike Ashman Todd Devereaux Jason Taylor
Wilmer Difo Jose Mota Henry Mateo Tim Barker
Nelson Medina Anthony Scelfo Tony Johnson LeDarious Clark
Jared Wegner Joel Carranza David King Tyreque Reed
Kyle Battle Wilman Rodriguez Joe Bonadonna Jon Schwind
Delvin Perez Ridge Hoopii-Haslam Lee Hover B.J. Guinn
Josh Breaux Jeff Banister Guillermo Garcia Jamie Williams
Anthony Seigler Mike Sadek Luke Sewell James Skelton
Chad Bell Ron Durham Joe Gerber Jesse Hoorelbeke
Spencer Henson Mark Threlkeld Howie Schultz Steve Jackson
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Juan Soto .301 .455 .577 181 7.1 .253 .394 .461 140 4.0
Aaron Judge .294 .410 .650 189 7.2 .242 .356 .503 138 3.9
Gleyber Torres .294 .365 .505 136 4.7 .245 .315 .406 99 1.8
Trent Grisham .241 .344 .460 120 3.9 .195 .296 .356 82 1.5
Anthony Volpe .250 .325 .466 116 3.9 .201 .277 .357 74 0.9
DJ LeMahieu .285 .366 .414 117 3.7 .227 .308 .328 78 1.1
Oswald Peraza .266 .328 .444 111 3.2 .219 .279 .341 74 0.8
Jorbit Vivas .275 .355 .402 109 3.1 .222 .301 .317 73 0.5
Alex Verdugo .294 .352 .466 126 3.2 .241 .302 .374 89 0.4
Jose Trevino .266 .301 .415 97 2.1 .210 .245 .314 57 0.7
Jared Serna .263 .312 .421 100 2.5 .208 .261 .323 61 -0.1
Jasson Domínguez .254 .330 .423 106 2.4 .207 .282 .336 73 -0.1
Austin Wells .258 .329 .458 113 2.3 .203 .274 .352 74 0.1
Agustin Ramirez .262 .325 .434 107 2.1 .209 .268 .340 69 -0.1
Caleb Durbin .279 .348 .392 104 1.8 .223 .297 .310 70 0.2
Anthony Rizzo .257 .351 .462 121 1.9 .210 .308 .365 87 -0.1
Brandon Lockridge .259 .312 .389 93 1.7 .207 .261 .304 59 0.0
Bubba Thompson .259 .309 .403 95 1.6 .211 .258 .321 60 -0.3
Oswaldo Cabrera .259 .317 .443 108 1.8 .210 .266 .340 69 -0.3
Jesus Rodriguez .268 .328 .387 97 1.6 .219 .281 .313 66 -0.2
Giancarlo Stanton .253 .337 .518 130 1.7 .203 .287 .393 89 -0.6
Ben Rortvedt .232 .315 .396 96 1.1 .177 .255 .294 54 -0.1
Franchy Cordero .260 .335 .461 118 1.5 .208 .286 .365 82 -0.4
Edinson Duran .261 .326 .419 105 0.6 .208 .275 .322 66 0.0
Aaron Palensky .232 .328 .452 113 1.2 .179 .277 .343 71 -0.6
Eduardo Torrealba .254 .313 .319 77 0.9 .199 .258 .248 42 -0.4
Carlos Narvaez .228 .323 .371 90 1.3 .174 .262 .271 49 -0.6
Ben Rice .266 .350 .482 127 1.1 .218 .299 .371 88 -0.5
Luis González .253 .331 .402 102 1.0 .203 .278 .305 62 -0.6
Christopher Familia .264 .326 .489 122 0.9 .212 .277 .381 81 -0.5
Benjamin Cowles .226 .299 .353 81 1.1 .179 .253 .265 46 -0.7
Everson Pereira .244 .310 .436 103 1.1 .194 .254 .335 62 -1.1
Elijah Dunham .244 .313 .407 97 1.2 .187 .263 .310 60 -1.2
Tyler Hardman .227 .288 .463 105 1.0 .176 .234 .340 59 -1.0
Matt Pita .242 .307 .442 104 0.4 .185 .250 .325 59 -0.4
Spencer Jones .234 .290 .397 87 1.0 .190 .244 .316 54 -1.2
Michael Hermosillo .240 .326 .438 108 0.6 .192 .271 .328 67 -0.6
Oscar Gonzalez .274 .301 .460 108 1.2 .226 .254 .363 71 -1.3
Jeter Downs .222 .309 .381 91 0.8 .168 .256 .274 51 -1.0
Grant Richardson .225 .291 .413 93 0.7 .172 .241 .314 53 -1.1
Max Burt .233 .291 .378 83 0.7 .180 .238 .280 44 -1.1
T.J. Rumfield .246 .318 .403 98 0.6 .191 .266 .298 57 -1.1
Wilmer Difo .249 .314 .347 83 0.5 .196 .260 .263 47 -1.0
Nelson Medina .223 .287 .378 82 0.3 .168 .231 .272 39 -1.0
Jared Wegner .233 .276 .416 89 -0.2 .185 .224 .323 51 -0.6
Kyle Battle .204 .292 .318 69 -0.2 .151 .235 .231 31 -0.8
Delvin Perez .232 .291 .322 68 0.1 .181 .239 .249 35 -1.4
Josh Breaux .236 .284 .423 90 0.1 .184 .224 .311 48 -1.6
Anthony Seigler .221 .335 .333 87 0.1 .163 .272 .241 48 -1.4
Chad Bell .218 .289 .382 84 0.2 .166 .234 .280 43 -1.7
Spencer Henson .227 .287 .387 86 -0.1 .175 .234 .294 48 -1.7
Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Gerrit Cole R 33 11 8 3.53 30 30 186.3 159 73 26 50 201
Marcus Stroman R 33 10 8 4.04 26 25 138.0 133 62 17 44 110
Carlos Rodón L 31 9 7 3.86 22 22 114.3 94 49 15 35 132
Nestor Cortes L 29 6 4 3.86 21 18 102.7 91 44 14 28 99
Clarke Schmidt R 28 7 8 4.41 29 25 130.7 126 64 19 42 129
Domingo Germán R 31 6 5 4.13 19 17 98.0 86 45 15 26 100
Luis Gil R 26 4 3 4.29 23 20 92.3 75 44 13 51 114
Will Warren R 25 7 7 4.55 25 23 118.7 114 60 16 46 103
Chase Hampton R 22 3 4 4.59 20 20 104.0 100 53 17 37 97
Sean Boyle R 27 5 6 4.59 20 15 86.3 85 44 12 23 71
Clayton Beeter R 25 6 6 4.79 25 24 107.0 97 57 16 53 108
Tanner Tully 태너 L 29 5 6 4.76 20 17 98.3 107 52 14 26 63
Clay Holmes R 31 5 4 3.84 62 0 61.0 49 26 7 24 67
Jonathan Loáisiga R 29 5 4 3.68 42 0 51.3 46 21 6 13 46
Edgar Barclay L 26 4 4 4.67 22 8 71.3 65 37 10 31 71
Yoendrys Gómez R 24 2 1 4.84 24 23 74.3 69 40 11 38 70
Matt Krook L 29 4 6 4.83 27 13 82.0 72 44 11 51 89
Cody Poteet R 29 3 4 4.75 15 12 66.3 62 35 11 27 62
Cody Morris R 27 2 2 4.53 25 9 53.7 49 27 8 26 59
Ian Hamilton R 29 4 4 4.14 39 2 54.3 45 25 7 27 66
Ryan Weber R 33 3 5 4.82 18 9 61.7 70 33 10 11 38
Tommy Kahnle R 34 2 2 4.15 48 2 43.3 35 20 7 18 52
Scott Effross R 30 3 2 4.00 42 0 45.0 42 20 6 11 42
Keynan Middleton R 30 2 2 3.88 48 0 46.3 39 20 7 17 55
Jack Neely R 24 5 5 4.17 41 0 58.3 50 27 8 23 65
Josh Maciejewski L 28 4 6 4.82 23 6 56.0 57 30 9 21 45
Anthony Misiewicz L 29 4 4 4.50 39 3 48.0 47 24 8 16 47
Nick Ramirez L 34 2 2 4.42 43 1 53.0 54 26 8 17 47
Wandy Peralta L 32 3 3 4.41 58 0 51.0 44 25 7 23 49
Luke Weaver R 30 3 4 5.33 25 21 101.3 109 60 18 38 91
Jimmy Cordero R 32 1 1 4.32 36 0 41.7 35 20 6 15 49
Michael Feliz R 31 2 1 4.38 32 1 37.0 34 18 6 13 37
Victor González L 28 4 4 4.53 49 2 49.7 45 25 7 22 49
Blane Abeyta R 25 5 8 5.40 21 18 100.0 104 60 16 47 73
Dennis Santana R 28 4 5 4.82 44 3 52.3 48 28 8 25 53
Albert Abreu R 28 2 2 4.63 40 1 56.3 49 29 8 31 60
Kervin Castro R 25 3 3 4.63 33 1 46.7 43 24 7 24 47
Barrett Loseke R 27 2 3 4.70 25 1 44.0 42 23 7 22 43
Zach Greene R 27 3 3 4.87 28 2 40.7 37 22 6 21 41
Gray Fenter R 28 2 4 5.44 14 9 48.0 47 29 8 31 43
Yerry De Los Santos R 26 3 4 4.66 42 0 48.3 45 25 7 18 41
James Norwood R 30 2 2 4.67 32 0 34.7 32 18 5 18 40
Ron Marinaccio R 28 3 4 4.68 53 0 59.7 49 31 8 33 63
Michael Giacone L 27 2 3 4.88 17 0 27.7 26 15 4 14 28
Zach McAllister R 36 2 2 5.00 39 2 45.0 43 25 8 19 48
Aaron McGarity R 29 4 4 4.78 43 1 58.3 57 31 9 18 50
Indigo Diaz R 25 2 3 4.93 32 0 38.3 34 21 6 22 42
Danny Watson R 23 4 4 4.81 45 0 58.0 52 31 9 24 56
Duane Underwood Jr. R 29 3 3 5.05 39 2 51.7 53 29 8 20 43
Oddanier Mosqueda L 25 3 4 5.02 44 2 57.3 51 32 8 29 57
Derek Craft R 27 2 2 5.08 25 0 28.3 27 16 5 15 28
Nick Burdi R 31 0 0 5.66 22 0 20.7 19 13 4 14 28
Matt Minnick L 28 2 3 5.30 26 0 35.7 35 21 6 18 30
Bailey Dees R 25 2 2 5.06 38 0 53.3 50 30 8 26 48
Alex Mauricio R 27 2 2 5.31 32 0 40.7 42 24 6 19 31
Ryan Anderson L 25 3 4 5.44 31 1 46.3 46 28 7 22 38
Justin Maese R 27 2 2 5.54 28 0 37.3 37 23 6 21 33
Lisandro Santos L 25 2 4 5.55 32 1 47.0 44 29 7 34 46
Tanner Myatt R 26 2 3 5.29 39 0 47.7 43 28 7 33 48
Carlos Gomez R 26 3 4 5.64 34 0 52.7 51 33 8 34 47
D.J. Snelten L 32 1 2 7.04 26 0 30.7 29 24 6 33 33
Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Gerrit Cole 186.3 9.7 2.4 1.3 6.6% 26.4% .278 119 3.78 84 3.8
Marcus Stroman 138.0 7.2 2.9 1.1 7.5% 18.8% .283 104 4.31 96 2.1
Carlos Rodón 114.3 10.4 2.8 1.2 7.4% 27.9% .279 109 3.70 92 1.9
Nestor Cortes 102.7 8.7 2.5 1.2 6.7% 23.5% .276 109 3.98 92 1.7
Clarke Schmidt 130.7 8.9 2.9 1.3 7.5% 23.2% .296 95 4.32 105 1.5
Domingo Germán 98.0 9.2 2.4 1.4 6.5% 24.9% .275 102 4.12 98 1.3
Luis Gil 92.3 11.1 5.0 1.3 12.6% 28.2% .283 98 4.37 102 1.2
Will Warren 118.7 7.8 3.5 1.2 9.0% 20.2% .287 93 4.59 108 1.1
Chase Hampton 104.0 8.4 3.2 1.5 8.2% 21.5% .285 92 4.58 109 1.0
Sean Boyle 86.3 7.4 2.4 1.3 6.3% 19.5% .286 92 4.56 109 0.8
Clayton Beeter 107.0 9.1 4.5 1.3 11.2% 22.7% .282 88 4.86 114 0.8
Tanner Tully 98.3 5.8 2.4 1.3 6.2% 14.9% .293 88 4.74 113 0.7
Clay Holmes 61.0 9.9 3.5 1.0 9.3% 26.1% .273 110 3.98 91 0.6
Jonathan Loáisiga 51.3 8.1 2.3 1.1 6.1% 21.7% .278 114 3.92 87 0.6
Edgar Barclay 71.3 9.0 3.9 1.3 10.0% 23.0% .285 90 4.64 111 0.5
Yoendrys Gómez 74.3 8.5 4.6 1.3 11.6% 21.3% .282 87 4.99 115 0.5
Matt Krook 82.0 9.8 5.6 1.2 13.8% 24.1% .286 87 4.84 115 0.4
Cody Poteet 66.3 8.4 3.7 1.5 9.4% 21.7% .279 89 4.90 113 0.4
Cody Morris 53.7 9.9 4.4 1.3 11.0% 24.9% .293 93 4.56 108 0.4
Ian Hamilton 54.3 10.9 4.5 1.2 11.4% 27.8% .288 102 4.10 98 0.4
Ryan Weber 61.7 5.5 1.6 1.5 4.2% 14.5% .297 87 4.81 114 0.4
Tommy Kahnle 43.3 10.8 3.7 1.5 9.8% 28.3% .272 101 4.34 99 0.3
Scott Effross 45.0 8.4 2.2 1.2 5.9% 22.7% .286 105 3.99 95 0.3
Keynan Middleton 46.3 10.7 3.3 1.4 8.8% 28.5% .283 108 4.01 92 0.3
Jack Neely 58.3 10.0 3.5 1.2 9.1% 25.8% .284 101 4.15 99 0.3
Josh Maciejewski 56.0 7.2 3.4 1.4 8.5% 18.3% .287 87 5.02 115 0.2
Anthony Misiewicz 48.0 8.8 3.0 1.5 7.8% 22.8% .293 94 4.53 107 0.2
Nick Ramirez 53.0 8.0 2.9 1.4 7.5% 20.7% .299 95 4.46 105 0.1
Wandy Peralta 51.0 8.6 4.1 1.2 10.6% 22.5% .270 95 4.65 105 0.1
Luke Weaver 101.3 8.1 3.4 1.6 8.5% 20.4% .306 79 4.98 127 0.1
Jimmy Cordero 41.7 10.6 3.2 1.3 8.6% 28.0% .284 97 4.22 103 0.1
Michael Feliz 37.0 9.0 3.2 1.5 8.3% 23.7% .283 96 4.58 104 0.1
Victor González 49.7 8.9 4.0 1.3 10.2% 22.7% .281 93 4.68 108 0.1
Blane Abeyta 100.0 6.6 4.2 1.4 10.5% 16.3% .287 78 5.62 128 0.0
Dennis Santana 52.3 9.1 4.3 1.4 10.9% 23.0% .286 87 4.82 114 0.0
Albert Abreu 56.3 9.6 5.0 1.3 12.4% 24.0% .281 91 4.89 110 0.0
Kervin Castro 46.7 9.1 4.6 1.4 11.6% 22.7% .286 91 4.86 110 0.0
Barrett Loseke 44.0 8.8 4.5 1.4 11.2% 21.9% .289 89 4.94 112 0.0
Zach Greene 40.7 9.1 4.6 1.3 11.8% 23.0% .284 86 4.93 116 0.0
Gray Fenter 48.0 8.1 5.8 1.5 13.7% 19.0% .285 77 5.69 129 -0.1
Yerry De Los Santos 48.3 7.6 3.4 1.3 8.8% 20.1% .275 90 4.81 111 -0.1
James Norwood 34.7 10.4 4.7 1.3 11.6% 25.8% .303 90 4.38 111 -0.1
Ron Marinaccio 59.7 9.5 5.0 1.2 12.7% 24.2% .268 90 4.90 111 -0.1
Michael Giacone 27.7 9.1 4.6 1.3 11.4% 22.8% .293 86 4.63 116 -0.1
Zach McAllister 45.0 9.6 3.8 1.6 9.7% 24.5% .294 84 5.03 119 -0.1
Aaron McGarity 58.3 7.7 2.8 1.4 7.3% 20.2% .284 88 4.83 114 -0.1
Indigo Diaz 38.3 9.9 5.2 1.4 12.6% 24.1% .283 85 4.98 117 -0.1
Danny Watson 58.0 8.7 3.7 1.4 9.6% 22.5% .274 88 5.00 114 -0.2
Duane Underwood Jr. 51.7 7.5 3.5 1.4 8.8% 18.9% .294 83 4.94 120 -0.2
Oddanier Mosqueda 57.3 8.9 4.6 1.3 11.6% 22.8% .279 84 4.96 119 -0.2
Derek Craft 28.3 8.9 4.8 1.6 11.7% 21.9% .286 83 5.27 121 -0.2
Nick Burdi 20.7 12.2 6.1 1.7 14.4% 28.9% .313 74 5.67 134 -0.3
Matt Minnick 35.7 7.6 4.5 1.5 11.3% 18.9% .282 79 5.53 126 -0.3
Bailey Dees 53.3 8.1 4.4 1.4 11.1% 20.4% .280 83 5.15 120 -0.3
Alex Mauricio 40.7 6.9 4.2 1.3 10.3% 16.8% .290 79 5.20 126 -0.3
Ryan Anderson 46.3 7.4 4.3 1.4 10.4% 18.0% .285 77 5.46 129 -0.4
Justin Maese 37.3 8.0 5.1 1.4 12.1% 19.1% .290 76 5.51 132 -0.4
Lisandro Santos 47.0 8.8 6.5 1.3 15.4% 20.8% .287 76 5.53 132 -0.4
Tanner Myatt 47.7 9.1 6.2 1.3 14.9% 21.6% .281 80 5.35 126 -0.4
Carlos Gomez 52.7 8.0 5.8 1.4 13.9% 19.2% .287 75 5.67 134 -0.7
D.J. Snelten 30.7 9.7 9.7 1.8 20.8% 20.8% .288 60 7.17 167 -0.9
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Gerrit Cole Max Scherzer Stephen Strasburg Urban Shocker
Marcus Stroman Mike Morgan John Denny Mark Portugal
Carlos Rodón Teddy Higuera Mike Cuellar Ron Guidry
Nestor Cortes Bob Ojeda Tyler Anderson Bobby Shantz
Clarke Schmidt John Crocco Bob Locker Jack Taylor
Domingo Germán Jesse Flores Craig Swan Scott Sanderson
Luis Gil Red Witt Tom Cheney Tyler Glasnow
Will Warren A.J. Cole Brian Sikorski Larry Jackson
Chase Hampton Jordan Lyles Jeremy Hefner Thomas Frondorf
Sean Boyle Monty Montgomery Jackson Todd Dave Frost
Clayton Beeter Darryl Kile Rich Gale Steve Dunning
Tanner Tully Lance Davis David Hurlbut Ramon Garcia
Clay Holmes Bruce Sutter Raisel Iglesias Jeff Montgomery
Jonathan Loáisiga Tommy Hunter Kelvin Herrera Jim Johnson
Edgar Barclay Wil Ledezma Eude Brito Gordon Knutson
Yoendrys Gómez Tom Kelley Gerardo Garcia Dave Tobik
Matt Krook David Purcey Andrew Miller Bobby Jones
Cody Poteet Dera Clark Matt Sergey George Throop
Cody Morris Jared Burton Ryan Kussmaul Jeff Plympton
Ian Hamilton Manny Acosta James Sherfy Jose Veras
Ryan Weber Silvano Quezada Donald Henthorne Dario Perez
Tommy Kahnle Moe Drabowsky Grant Balfour Troy Percival
Scott Effross Bob Howry Bobby Chouinard Donn Pall
Keynan Middleton Vicente Romo Cliff Politte Dan Miceli
Jack Neely Gary Mielke Josh Judy Ramon Pena
Josh Maciejewski Danny Lazar Wally Trice Oswaldo Mairena
Anthony Misiewicz John O’Donoghue Fernando Abad Tommy Phelps
Nick Ramirez Milt Shoffner Dave Koslo Jason Jacome
Wandy Peralta Jeremy Affeldt Rich Rodriguez Zack Britton
Luke Weaver Edwin Jackson Tom Hurd Salvatore Federico
Jimmy Cordero Jeff Russell Rafael Soriano Dave Smith
Michael Feliz Johnny Murphy Randy Veres Scott Bankhead
Victor González Ron Mahay John Hiller Jerry Vasto
Blane Abeyta Deck McGuire 맥과이어 Harvey Cohen Jake Woodford
Dennis Santana Deunte Heath Kevin Campbell Gonzalez Germen
Albert Abreu Jesus Colome Kyle Crick Jose Ramirez
Kervin Castro Rich Surhoff Barry Jones Sam Demel
Barrett Loseke Mike Crudale Jeff Austin Jeff McCurry
Zach Greene Bob Chakales Ken Sanders Mike Crudale
Gray Fenter Dennis Malseed Victor Cole 콜 Tom Newell
Yerry De Los Santos Edgmer Escalona Jeremy Accardo Sendy Rleal
James Norwood Scott Stranski Don Brennan Mel Queen
Ron Marinaccio Alan Mills J.J. Hoover Sammy Stewart
Michael Giacone Gerry Rub David Quinowski Larry Smith
Zach McAllister Hy Vandenberg Doug Brocail Mike Ryba
Aaron McGarity Bob Sadowski Willie Fraser Chase Whitley
Indigo Diaz Don Cooper Steve Foucault Bob Blyth
Danny Watson Johnny Klippstein James Hemric Keith Fleming
Duane Underwood Jr. Rob Scahill Roman Colon 콜론 Sandy Rosario
Oddanier Mosqueda Chubby Dean C.J. Riefenhauser Eury De La Rosa
Derek Craft Mike Heinen Kevin Meistickle Donald Hammitt
Nick Burdi Whit Wyatt Tim Stoddard Dick Selma
Matt Minnick Joe Harris Pete Cappadona Mike Santiago
Bailey Dees Don O’Riley Steve Cishek Barry Manuel
Alex Mauricio Brian Bargerhuff Matt Stites Michael Young
Ryan Anderson Alan McKay Lawrence Groover Carlos Rivas
Justin Maese Kevin Meistickle Michael Young Ryan Baker
Lisandro Santos Alan McKay Ryne Slack Ramon Benjamin
Tanner Myatt Gil Downs Joe Valentine Dave Sells
Carlos Gomez Adrian Hollinger Pat Collins Craig Hanson
D.J. Snelten Terry Rosenkranz Greg McCarthy Lyle Prempas
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Gerrit Cole .221 .284 .393 .229 .274 .384 4.9 2.6 3.01 4.06
Marcus Stroman .251 .314 .406 .244 .300 .402 2.8 1.1 3.60 4.66
Carlos Rodón .206 .264 .320 .222 .289 .393 2.8 0.8 3.21 4.85
Nestor Cortes .240 .295 .427 .230 .281 .385 2.4 0.8 3.23 4.63
Clarke Schmidt .263 .328 .458 .234 .299 .388 2.4 0.5 3.84 5.05
Domingo Germán .234 .289 .415 .227 .282 .400 2.0 0.6 3.52 4.85
Luis Gil .224 .330 .391 .211 .313 .368 2.0 0.2 3.63 5.12
Will Warren .261 .345 .459 .235 .299 .366 1.9 0.2 4.00 5.19
Chase Hampton .262 .330 .445 .234 .288 .421 1.8 0.2 3.91 5.26
Sean Boyle .272 .348 .449 .233 .286 .394 1.4 0.1 3.98 5.34
Clayton Beeter .249 .349 .437 .224 .314 .388 1.5 -0.2 4.25 5.60
Tanner Tully .256 .309 .408 .279 .326 .461 1.2 0.1 4.35 5.37
Clay Holmes .237 .336 .412 .198 .274 .321 1.2 -0.3 3.09 5.18
Jonathan Loáisiga .250 .313 .398 .222 .274 .370 1.0 0.0 3.09 4.60
Edgar Barclay .203 .312 .316 .251 .332 .436 1.1 -0.3 4.00 5.59
Yoendrys Gómez .246 .341 .415 .234 .329 .407 1.0 -0.1 4.33 5.52
Matt Krook .181 .310 .245 .251 .358 .452 1.2 -0.6 4.08 5.84
Cody Poteet .246 .319 .460 .238 .320 .400 0.9 -0.1 4.22 5.51
Cody Morris .255 .354 .480 .220 .301 .349 0.9 -0.1 3.86 5.20
Ian Hamilton .211 .318 .358 .227 .312 .391 0.9 -0.3 3.38 5.12
Ryan Weber .283 .331 .483 .277 .301 .446 0.7 -0.1 4.32 5.50
Tommy Kahnle .224 .306 .382 .209 .296 .419 0.9 -0.3 3.13 5.54
Scott Effross .247 .310 .403 .237 .279 .402 0.7 -0.2 3.27 5.02
Keynan Middleton .234 .314 .416 .214 .278 .388 0.8 -0.2 3.05 4.71
Jack Neely .250 .336 .385 .205 .277 .393 0.8 -0.3 3.43 4.97
Josh Maciejewski .232 .308 .348 .270 .337 .487 0.6 -0.2 4.22 5.58
Anthony Misiewicz .229 .280 .386 .263 .328 .466 0.7 -0.2 3.62 5.38
Nick Ramirez .254 .320 .373 .261 .312 .465 0.7 -0.3 3.56 5.29
Wandy Peralta .208 .305 .361 .240 .326 .413 0.7 -0.5 3.69 5.43
Luke Weaver .278 .353 .479 .259 .315 .458 0.9 -0.6 4.66 6.05
Jimmy Cordero .233 .333 .425 .214 .287 .369 0.6 -0.5 3.35 5.80
Michael Feliz .246 .329 .477 .234 .294 .390 0.4 -0.3 3.65 5.33
Victor González .206 .299 .338 .252 .340 .439 0.5 -0.3 3.84 5.25
Blane Abeyta .281 .377 .444 .248 .336 .454 0.4 -0.7 5.05 5.96
Dennis Santana .241 .340 .448 .237 .323 .395 0.4 -0.5 4.21 5.68
Albert Abreu .213 .336 .394 .242 .338 .400 0.4 -0.6 3.96 5.46
Kervin Castro .256 .347 .430 .223 .321 .404 0.4 -0.4 4.02 5.38
Barrett Loseke .256 .356 .423 .237 .314 .441 0.3 -0.5 4.12 5.67
Zach Greene .253 .349 .387 .222 .326 .444 0.3 -0.5 4.21 5.81
Gray Fenter .259 .382 .447 .243 .342 .437 0.4 -0.5 4.79 6.43
Yerry De Los Santos .238 .333 .417 .245 .310 .412 0.3 -0.5 4.01 5.44
James Norwood .246 .352 .426 .233 .305 .411 0.3 -0.5 3.77 5.83
Ron Marinaccio .220 .338 .394 .217 .331 .365 0.5 -0.8 4.02 5.66
Michael Giacone .250 .351 .406 .240 .318 .427 0.1 -0.3 4.25 5.66
Zach McAllister .247 .333 .447 .244 .337 .444 0.3 -0.7 4.09 6.56
Aaron McGarity .266 .341 .459 .235 .303 .403 0.4 -0.6 4.09 5.48
Indigo Diaz .232 .346 .435 .231 .330 .397 0.2 -0.6 4.22 5.83
Danny Watson .227 .317 .400 .241 .338 .429 0.3 -0.7 4.15 5.64
Duane Underwood Jr. .269 .343 .462 .252 .323 .423 0.2 -0.6 4.35 6.10
Oddanier Mosqueda .195 .315 .312 .254 .352 .444 0.3 -0.8 4.34 6.04
Derek Craft .260 .351 .480 .233 .329 .433 0.0 -0.4 4.51 6.02
Nick Burdi .231 .388 .436 .244 .360 .439 0.0 -0.6 4.83 7.39
Matt Minnick .256 .360 .419 .250 .342 .458 0.0 -0.6 4.67 6.18
Bailey Dees .238 .350 .386 .248 .328 .448 0.1 -0.7 4.43 5.66
Alex Mauricio .267 .375 .440 .256 .316 .442 -0.1 -0.7 4.71 6.04
Ryan Anderson .208 .311 .358 .271 .371 .465 0.0 -0.7 4.84 6.13
Justin Maese .275 .383 .493 .234 .333 .403 -0.1 -0.7 4.92 6.50
Lisandro Santos .246 .377 .421 .240 .360 .416 0.0 -0.9 4.84 6.57
Tanner Myatt .247 .390 .432 .225 .328 .392 0.0 -0.9 4.59 6.27
Carlos Gomez .280 .382 .516 .223 .353 .357 -0.3 -1.1 5.08 6.39
D.J. Snelten .231 .400 .359 .250 .425 .513 -0.5 -1.5 5.87 9.54
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023. Percentiles are based on the projected PA or TBF.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-new-york-yankees/
Click on link to get a clearer understanding of ths stats being listed below:
ZiPS Projections
Batters
If I’ve learned anything from two decades of projection work (and people getting mad at that projection work), it’s that fans are way too optimistic about teams when everything goes great and way too pessimistic after things have gone awry.
The 2022 Yankees were a good example of this. After a first half in which they went 58-23, good for a .716 winning percentage and a Pythagorean win percentage that nearly matched, ZiPS only projected the team to go 45-36 the rest of the way. “Knave!” they shouted at me on Twitter. “Vagabond! Miscreant!” OK, maybe they didn’t use those words exactly, but there was bewilderment and more than a touch of anger that I would disrespect the Bronx Bombers so. In the end, the Yankees actually were four wins worse than that projection in the second half.
And just like things are never as amazing as they seem when everything goes your way, the reverse is true, with the Yankees again being a good example. They had their worst season since 1992 in 2023, and based on how they’ve been talked about over the last six months or so, you’d think they were a glorified Triple-A team. But the Yankees weren’t that bad — they went 82-80 in a division without a true doormat team to beat up on. That record was all of seven wins below their preseason projection, a miss that barely merits raising an eyebrow, and certainly doesn’t justify floating Brian Cashman out to sea (or bunting more).
There were more humdrum reasons for the Yankees’ failures than an overabundance of analytics. Their most valuable player missed a third of the season. Their big pitching signing missed more than half the season and was awful when he was healthy. The dude who led the rotation in ERA in 2022 missed most of the year. A couple guys in the decline phase of their careers took big steps back. Those misfortunes can happen to any team, and they happened to to the Yankees in 2023.
There are some serious long-term concerns and they could have done more, but they’ve done an admirable job patching things up for 2024. Bounce-back seasons from Anthony Rizzo and especially Giancarlo Stanton aren’t exactly a given, so the Yankees rented the best hitter anyone can reasonably obtain in Juan Soto. Given the trajectories of Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón, they went after Yoshinobu Yamamoto (and failed), but were able to sign Marcus Stroman. Harrison Bader didn’t work out in 2023, so the team’s trying again with Alex Verdugo.
As it stands now, first base and designated hitter are the weakest positions on the depth chart, meaning the Yankees have fulfilled one of their unstated goals: protecting against the potential toastitude of Rizzo and Stanton by making sure the success of the lineup isn’t reliant on them returning to form. I’m bearish on their futures, but their production now matters a good deal less to the 2024 Yankees than it did to the Yankees of the last few years. Soto is a beast, as is Aaron Judge when he’s healthy, and while Gleyber Torres isn’t quite the player he looked like he’d be after his first couple of seasons, he’s still solidly above-average overall and isn’t being depended on to play a position (shortstop) where he’s overmatched.
There are still a few other question marks in the lineup. Verdugo’s projection takes a hit compared to where it was in the Red Sox rundown by virtue of ZiPS thinking his medium-power, line-drive bat was more ideally suited to Fenway, but he’s still a legitimate starter in left. Catcher only projects as average because of the uncertainty surrounding Austin Wells‘ defense; if he plays better defense or Jose Trevino gets more playing time than our depth chart currently anticipate, there’s a lot of room for the projected WAR to go up.
Depth at the power positions is an issue and so is the fact that a lot of the team’s offense is tied up in two players, making the Yankees susceptible to injury. But there’s at least depth in the infield with Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera hanging around.
Pitchers
Gerrit Cole always goes into the season as a Cy Young contender and there’s no reason to feel differently this year, other than the slight fear you should have with any pitcher. ZiPS projects a better year from Rodón, but given his injury history, I’m more inclined to believe the 114 innings ZiPS is projecting than the more bountiful number in our depth chart. Stroman is solid, but the raw numbers may not be as exciting without Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner behind him. ZiPS remains hopeful about Cortes, and while the computer isn’t super into Clarke Schmidt, that’s a perfectly serviceable projection for a fourth or fifth starter.
Who the Yankees turn to if injuries hit is a concern. Clayton Beeter is next on our depth chart and ZiPS is not at all enthused by the possibility of him being the de facto sixth starter. It likes Chase Hampton a lot, but I doubt the team will be that aggressive promoting him in 2024, and the computer only likes Will Warren incrementally more than Beeter. If ZiPS is correct, the Yankees better pray that they don’t end up with that many innings from Luke Weaver. While they have missed out on some of the starters they’ve gone after, they could certainly make another low-key addition or two. When running sims for 2024, everything blew up pretty quickly in the ones where the projected starters got a lot fewer innings than expected, giving the rotation a fairly low floor for a team with a good overall projection.
The bullpen pales in comparison to many of the team’s bullpens over the last decade, when New York regularly ranked at or near the top of the league. And getting Soto involved giving up a couple live arms who might have fattened up the ‘pen. ZiPS likes the front five guys (Holmes, Loáisiga, Kahnle, Hamilton, Effross), but its mathematical faith dissipates when you get to the third-tier relievers. Perhaps Luis Gil can help here (or in the rotation), but you don’t want to put too many eggs in the basket of a pitcher with 33 innings in the majors who is coming off Tommy John surgery.
If you add up the numbers on the Yankees’ depth chart — ignoring the fact that you explicitly waive any rights to restitution should you be karate-chopped upon doing so — you’ll get a win total in the low 90s. However, the simulations are coming up a bit short of that largely because, outside of the infield, ZiPS believes that New York’s depth is thinner than most of the other good teams. Right now, ZiPS is banking between 86-90 wins, which wouldn’t be that bad considering the challenges the team has had to fix on the fly this winter. However, that would probably be a huge disappointment to Yankees fans and might speed up the calls for the post-Cashman era to start.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Juan Soto L 25 LF 660 523 101 144 25 1 33 103 131 108 11 4
Aaron Judge R 32 RF 552 461 89 125 20 0 40 101 84 149 5 1
Gleyber Torres R 27 2B 629 560 79 152 28 1 24 79 60 108 11 5
Trent Grisham L 27 CF 537 461 68 101 25 2 19 61 64 138 13 3
Anthony Volpe R 23 SS 598 532 71 119 31 4 19 74 52 152 23 5
DJ LeMahieu R 35 3B 536 476 61 122 19 2 11 51 54 98 3 2
Oswald Peraza R 24 SS 506 463 61 113 19 2 15 62 33 117 18 6
Jorbit Vivas L 23 2B 590 522 75 129 22 4 9 63 44 81 10 3
Alex Verdugo L 28 RF 591 537 80 144 32 2 15 61 45 92 4 2
Jose Trevino R 31 C 277 261 26 62 12 1 6 31 12 46 1 1
Jared Serna R 22 2B 544 507 72 119 22 2 14 63 31 115 13 5
Jasson Domínguez B 21 CF 591 528 80 122 21 4 16 66 58 167 23 6
Austin Wells L 24 C 475 426 51 97 21 1 17 63 40 125 5 1
Agustin Ramirez R 22 C 471 429 57 101 21 0 14 54 36 102 6 2
Caleb Durbin R 24 2B 351 315 46 79 16 2 4 38 22 35 18 5
Anthony Rizzo L 34 1B 458 398 52 93 17 1 18 56 41 93 2 3
Brandon Lockridge R 27 CF 374 341 42 79 14 2 7 40 24 107 19 3
Bubba Thompson R 26 CF 448 414 60 97 17 4 9 52 24 126 26 6
Oswaldo Cabrera B 25 LF 438 399 50 93 20 1 13 52 32 107 10 3
Jesus Rodriguez R 22 3B 446 407 49 98 16 3 7 47 31 84 9 3
Giancarlo Stanton R 34 RF 455 402 48 92 15 0 25 69 48 133 0 1
Ben Rortvedt L 26 C 234 209 25 43 8 0 7 27 20 66 1 1
Franchy Cordero L 29 RF 418 374 52 88 21 1 14 54 39 123 6 1
Edinson Duran R 21 C 123 111 16 26 4 1 3 16 6 26 1 1
Aaron Palensky R 25 LF 372 325 48 68 17 3 13 51 35 114 9 2
Eduardo Torrealba R 25 3B 292 265 30 60 7 1 2 23 17 53 6 2
Carlos Narvaez R 25 C 379 332 39 66 12 0 9 39 38 118 3 1
Ben Rice L 25 C 309 272 39 65 12 1 12 45 27 70 4 1
Luis González L 28 RF 316 281 35 64 11 1 7 35 28 73 9 3
Christopher Familia L 24 LF 276 252 38 60 11 1 12 41 17 69 1 1
Benjamin Cowles R 24 2B 425 382 42 77 15 2 7 44 33 146 9 3
Everson Pereira R 23 LF 443 405 54 89 16 3 15 57 31 147 10 3
Elijah Dunham L 26 LF 501 451 57 97 23 2 12 55 42 145 19 5
Tyler Hardman R 25 3B 365 332 42 67 10 2 17 51 26 136 5 2
Matt Pita R 27 2B 144 131 18 28 7 0 5 19 8 42 3 2
Spencer Jones L 23 CF 526 489 56 105 21 3 13 59 32 174 22 7
Michael Hermosillo R 29 RF 236 209 28 45 8 1 8 34 15 69 5 2
Oscar Gonzalez R 26 RF 538 513 57 128 25 2 18 75 19 124 1 1
Jeter Downs R 25 SS 352 310 42 61 12 1 9 38 33 110 11 3
Grant Richardson L 24 RF 356 324 40 64 10 2 13 45 24 136 9 2
Max Burt R 27 2B 357 329 43 68 13 1 8 38 21 113 10 2
T.J. Rumfield L 24 1B 336 300 34 65 13 0 9 38 27 80 4 2
Wilmer Difo B 32 SS 330 298 35 66 10 1 4 30 27 74 9 4
Nelson Medina R 23 CF 239 220 23 43 7 3 5 25 17 92 5 3
Jared Wegner R 24 RF 92 87 8 18 5 0 3 12 5 32 1 1
Kyle Battle R 26 LF 122 108 12 19 5 0 2 10 10 42 5 1
Delvin Perez R 25 2B 356 328 40 68 9 2 4 31 22 114 14 3
Josh Breaux R 26 C 319 301 30 63 12 0 12 40 16 94 1 1
Anthony Seigler B 25 C 307 261 34 50 12 0 4 24 41 74 4 3
Chad Bell L 27 1B 352 322 32 62 9 1 11 38 28 144 1 1
Spencer Henson R 26 1B 332 302 37 60 13 0 10 41 20 109 1 1
Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Juan Soto 660 .275 .421 .516 160 .241 .291 -3 5.5 .399 118
Aaron Judge 552 .271 .384 .575 162 .304 .313 6 5.5 .399 103
Gleyber Torres 629 .271 .342 .454 119 .182 .299 -2 3.4 .343 91
Trent Grisham 537 .219 .321 .406 101 .187 .270 7 2.7 .318 64
Anthony Volpe 598 .224 .302 .404 94 .180 .277 2 2.4 .307 72
DJ LeMahieu 536 .256 .334 .374 97 .118 .302 8 2.4 .313 61
Oswald Peraza 506 .244 .306 .391 93 .147 .296 3 2.0 .305 62
Jorbit Vivas 590 .247 .327 .356 91 .109 .278 3 1.9 .304 64
Alex Verdugo 591 .268 .327 .419 106 .151 .300 3 1.6 .322 75
Jose Trevino 277 .238 .272 .360 74 .123 .268 10 1.3 .274 26
Jared Serna 544 .235 .285 .369 80 .134 .278 7 1.2 .285 58
Jasson Domínguez 591 .231 .308 .377 90 .146 .307 -2 1.2 .300 68
Austin Wells 475 .228 .301 .401 93 .174 .282 -6 1.2 .305 53
Agustin Ramirez 471 .235 .297 .382 88 .147 .278 -3 1.1 .296 51
Caleb Durbin 351 .251 .322 .352 88 .102 .272 1 1.0 .300 41
Anthony Rizzo 458 .234 .330 .417 106 .183 .261 1 1.0 .325 56
Brandon Lockridge 374 .232 .288 .346 76 .114 .317 5 0.8 .279 39
Bubba Thompson 448 .234 .284 .360 78 .126 .315 2 0.7 .281 50
Oswaldo Cabrera 438 .233 .292 .386 87 .153 .287 6 0.7 .294 48
Jesus Rodriguez 446 .241 .303 .346 80 .106 .288 3 0.7 .286 46
Giancarlo Stanton 455 .229 .314 .453 110 .224 .275 -6 0.6 .329 58
Ben Rortvedt 234 .206 .286 .344 75 .139 .265 2 0.5 .280 21
Franchy Cordero 418 .235 .312 .409 99 .174 .312 -3 0.4 .313 49
Edinson Duran 123 .234 .301 .369 86 .135 .280 0 0.3 .295 13
Aaron Palensky 372 .209 .304 .400 94 .191 .278 -2 0.3 .307 42
Eduardo Torrealba 292 .226 .284 .283 59 .057 .276 8 0.3 .256 23
Carlos Narvaez 379 .199 .290 .316 69 .117 .278 0 0.3 .272 31
Ben Rice 309 .239 .324 .423 106 .184 .279 -14 0.2 .325 38
Luis González 316 .228 .304 .349 81 .121 .284 3 0.2 .289 33
Christopher Familia 276 .238 .301 .433 101 .194 .281 -3 0.2 .316 33
Benjamin Cowles 425 .202 .275 .306 62 .105 .306 6 0.1 .260 35
Everson Pereira 443 .220 .282 .385 83 .165 .305 2 0.1 .290 47
Elijah Dunham 501 .215 .289 .355 78 .140 .289 3 0.0 .284 52
Tyler Hardman 365 .202 .263 .398 80 .196 .279 -2 0.0 .283 37
Matt Pita 144 .214 .278 .382 81 .168 .274 -2 0.0 .287 15
Spencer Jones 526 .215 .266 .350 70 .135 .305 1 -0.1 .269 53
Michael Hermosillo 236 .215 .297 .378 86 .163 .280 -1 -0.1 .297 25
Oscar Gonzalez 538 .250 .279 .411 89 .162 .296 -1 -0.1 .295 59
Jeter Downs 352 .197 .284 .329 70 .132 .272 -4 -0.1 .274 32
Grant Richardson 356 .198 .267 .361 73 .164 .291 3 -0.2 .275 34
Max Burt 357 .207 .263 .325 63 .119 .288 1 -0.2 .259 31
T.J. Rumfield 336 .217 .292 .350 78 .133 .265 2 -0.2 .284 32
Wilmer Difo 330 .221 .286 .302 64 .081 .282 -2 -0.3 .263 29
Nelson Medina 239 .195 .255 .323 60 .127 .309 1 -0.4 .252 20
Jared Wegner 92 .207 .250 .368 69 .161 .288 -2 -0.4 .267 9
Kyle Battle 122 .176 .262 .278 51 .102 .266 0 -0.5 .246 9
Delvin Perez 356 .207 .267 .284 54 .076 .305 0 -0.6 .247 29
Josh Breaux 319 .209 .251 .369 70 .159 .262 -7 -0.7 .266 28
Anthony Seigler 307 .192 .303 .284 65 .092 .251 -8 -0.7 .269 24
Chad Bell 352 .193 .259 .329 62 .137 .305 4 -0.8 .258 28
Spencer Henson 332 .199 .262 .341 66 .142 .273 1 -0.9 .263 28
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Juan Soto Rusty Staub Mel Ott Carl Yastrzemski
Aaron Judge Mickey Mantle Manny Ramirez Jim Edmonds
Gleyber Torres Dustin Pedroia Marcus Giles Edgardo Alfonzo
Trent Grisham Rick Miller Gary Geiger Adolfo Phillips
Anthony Volpe James Mouton Dick Schofield Davey Johnson
DJ LeMahieu Wade Boggs Marco Scutaro Dustin Pedroia
Oswald Peraza Ryne Sandberg Freddie Patek Onix Concepcion
Jorbit Vivas Nicky Lopez Alberto Callaspo Russ Adams
Alex Verdugo Norm Larker Lloyd Waner Whitey Lockman
Jose Trevino Brayan Peña Eddie Pérez John Stephenson
Jared Serna Bill Spiers Ricky Adams Jason Romano
Jasson Domínguez Rick Manning Shin-Soo Choo 추신수 Stan Javier
Austin Wells Devin Mesoraco Joe Ferguson Ernie DiStasi
Agustin Ramirez Brad Gulden Matt Sinatro Ron Brand
Caleb Durbin Joe Strain Ben Orloff Don DeDonatis
Anthony Rizzo Hanley Ramirez Dan Driessen Greg Brock
Brandon Lockridge Jeff Stone Darrell Ceciliani Robert Stotsky
Bubba Thompson Keanon Simon Carlos Gómez Bobby Mitchell
Oswaldo Cabrera Curtis Brown Kevin Bass Paul Householder
Jesus Rodriguez Kevin Drury Aarom Baldiris 발디리스 Mike White
Giancarlo Stanton Khris Davis Lucas Duda Ryan Howard
Ben Rortvedt Logan Johnson Richard Sauget Don Berti
Franchy Cordero Dustan Mohr Brian Goodwin Brent Krause
Edinson Duran Jose Stela Jason Belcher Tony Tornay
Aaron Palensky Ruben Rivera Brad Komminsk John Hale
Eduardo Torrealba Dean Bowyer Mark Hopper Nate Samson
Carlos Narvaez Jim Jones Tom Lundstedt Danny Ardoin
Ben Rice Charlie O’Brien J.R. Towles Ed Ott
Luis González Curt Ford Jerome Walton Jose Ortiz
Christopher Familia Kellen Kulbacki Jim King Terrell Salazar
Benjamin Cowles Victor LaRose Tim Barker Mike Neal
Everson Pereira Faye Throneberry Michael Saunders Reggie Sanders
Elijah Dunham Cesar Crespo Blake Tekotte Ka’ai Tom
Tyler Hardman Ed Moxey Tim Pyznarski Kelly Gruber
Matt Pita Doug Hansen Terry Shumpert Gookie Dawkins
Spencer Jones Lou Brock Kory DeHaan Al Martin마틴
Michael Hermosillo Kenny Williams Hiram Bocachica Ryan Cordell
Oscar Gonzalez Chris Bourjos Glenn Wilson Cameron Drew
Jeter Downs Jeremy Sy Joseph Edgley John Tolisano
Grant Richardson John Ramistella Rickey Holifield Andrew Dyes
Max Burt Rouglas Odor Teuris Olivares Jorge Mejia
T.J. Rumfield Mike Ashman Todd Devereaux Jason Taylor
Wilmer Difo Jose Mota Henry Mateo Tim Barker
Nelson Medina Anthony Scelfo Tony Johnson LeDarious Clark
Jared Wegner Joel Carranza David King Tyreque Reed
Kyle Battle Wilman Rodriguez Joe Bonadonna Jon Schwind
Delvin Perez Ridge Hoopii-Haslam Lee Hover B.J. Guinn
Josh Breaux Jeff Banister Guillermo Garcia Jamie Williams
Anthony Seigler Mike Sadek Luke Sewell James Skelton
Chad Bell Ron Durham Joe Gerber Jesse Hoorelbeke
Spencer Henson Mark Threlkeld Howie Schultz Steve Jackson
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Juan Soto .301 .455 .577 181 7.1 .253 .394 .461 140 4.0
Aaron Judge .294 .410 .650 189 7.2 .242 .356 .503 138 3.9
Gleyber Torres .294 .365 .505 136 4.7 .245 .315 .406 99 1.8
Trent Grisham .241 .344 .460 120 3.9 .195 .296 .356 82 1.5
Anthony Volpe .250 .325 .466 116 3.9 .201 .277 .357 74 0.9
DJ LeMahieu .285 .366 .414 117 3.7 .227 .308 .328 78 1.1
Oswald Peraza .266 .328 .444 111 3.2 .219 .279 .341 74 0.8
Jorbit Vivas .275 .355 .402 109 3.1 .222 .301 .317 73 0.5
Alex Verdugo .294 .352 .466 126 3.2 .241 .302 .374 89 0.4
Jose Trevino .266 .301 .415 97 2.1 .210 .245 .314 57 0.7
Jared Serna .263 .312 .421 100 2.5 .208 .261 .323 61 -0.1
Jasson Domínguez .254 .330 .423 106 2.4 .207 .282 .336 73 -0.1
Austin Wells .258 .329 .458 113 2.3 .203 .274 .352 74 0.1
Agustin Ramirez .262 .325 .434 107 2.1 .209 .268 .340 69 -0.1
Caleb Durbin .279 .348 .392 104 1.8 .223 .297 .310 70 0.2
Anthony Rizzo .257 .351 .462 121 1.9 .210 .308 .365 87 -0.1
Brandon Lockridge .259 .312 .389 93 1.7 .207 .261 .304 59 0.0
Bubba Thompson .259 .309 .403 95 1.6 .211 .258 .321 60 -0.3
Oswaldo Cabrera .259 .317 .443 108 1.8 .210 .266 .340 69 -0.3
Jesus Rodriguez .268 .328 .387 97 1.6 .219 .281 .313 66 -0.2
Giancarlo Stanton .253 .337 .518 130 1.7 .203 .287 .393 89 -0.6
Ben Rortvedt .232 .315 .396 96 1.1 .177 .255 .294 54 -0.1
Franchy Cordero .260 .335 .461 118 1.5 .208 .286 .365 82 -0.4
Edinson Duran .261 .326 .419 105 0.6 .208 .275 .322 66 0.0
Aaron Palensky .232 .328 .452 113 1.2 .179 .277 .343 71 -0.6
Eduardo Torrealba .254 .313 .319 77 0.9 .199 .258 .248 42 -0.4
Carlos Narvaez .228 .323 .371 90 1.3 .174 .262 .271 49 -0.6
Ben Rice .266 .350 .482 127 1.1 .218 .299 .371 88 -0.5
Luis González .253 .331 .402 102 1.0 .203 .278 .305 62 -0.6
Christopher Familia .264 .326 .489 122 0.9 .212 .277 .381 81 -0.5
Benjamin Cowles .226 .299 .353 81 1.1 .179 .253 .265 46 -0.7
Everson Pereira .244 .310 .436 103 1.1 .194 .254 .335 62 -1.1
Elijah Dunham .244 .313 .407 97 1.2 .187 .263 .310 60 -1.2
Tyler Hardman .227 .288 .463 105 1.0 .176 .234 .340 59 -1.0
Matt Pita .242 .307 .442 104 0.4 .185 .250 .325 59 -0.4
Spencer Jones .234 .290 .397 87 1.0 .190 .244 .316 54 -1.2
Michael Hermosillo .240 .326 .438 108 0.6 .192 .271 .328 67 -0.6
Oscar Gonzalez .274 .301 .460 108 1.2 .226 .254 .363 71 -1.3
Jeter Downs .222 .309 .381 91 0.8 .168 .256 .274 51 -1.0
Grant Richardson .225 .291 .413 93 0.7 .172 .241 .314 53 -1.1
Max Burt .233 .291 .378 83 0.7 .180 .238 .280 44 -1.1
T.J. Rumfield .246 .318 .403 98 0.6 .191 .266 .298 57 -1.1
Wilmer Difo .249 .314 .347 83 0.5 .196 .260 .263 47 -1.0
Nelson Medina .223 .287 .378 82 0.3 .168 .231 .272 39 -1.0
Jared Wegner .233 .276 .416 89 -0.2 .185 .224 .323 51 -0.6
Kyle Battle .204 .292 .318 69 -0.2 .151 .235 .231 31 -0.8
Delvin Perez .232 .291 .322 68 0.1 .181 .239 .249 35 -1.4
Josh Breaux .236 .284 .423 90 0.1 .184 .224 .311 48 -1.6
Anthony Seigler .221 .335 .333 87 0.1 .163 .272 .241 48 -1.4
Chad Bell .218 .289 .382 84 0.2 .166 .234 .280 43 -1.7
Spencer Henson .227 .287 .387 86 -0.1 .175 .234 .294 48 -1.7
Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Gerrit Cole R 33 11 8 3.53 30 30 186.3 159 73 26 50 201
Marcus Stroman R 33 10 8 4.04 26 25 138.0 133 62 17 44 110
Carlos Rodón L 31 9 7 3.86 22 22 114.3 94 49 15 35 132
Nestor Cortes L 29 6 4 3.86 21 18 102.7 91 44 14 28 99
Clarke Schmidt R 28 7 8 4.41 29 25 130.7 126 64 19 42 129
Domingo Germán R 31 6 5 4.13 19 17 98.0 86 45 15 26 100
Luis Gil R 26 4 3 4.29 23 20 92.3 75 44 13 51 114
Will Warren R 25 7 7 4.55 25 23 118.7 114 60 16 46 103
Chase Hampton R 22 3 4 4.59 20 20 104.0 100 53 17 37 97
Sean Boyle R 27 5 6 4.59 20 15 86.3 85 44 12 23 71
Clayton Beeter R 25 6 6 4.79 25 24 107.0 97 57 16 53 108
Tanner Tully 태너 L 29 5 6 4.76 20 17 98.3 107 52 14 26 63
Clay Holmes R 31 5 4 3.84 62 0 61.0 49 26 7 24 67
Jonathan Loáisiga R 29 5 4 3.68 42 0 51.3 46 21 6 13 46
Edgar Barclay L 26 4 4 4.67 22 8 71.3 65 37 10 31 71
Yoendrys Gómez R 24 2 1 4.84 24 23 74.3 69 40 11 38 70
Matt Krook L 29 4 6 4.83 27 13 82.0 72 44 11 51 89
Cody Poteet R 29 3 4 4.75 15 12 66.3 62 35 11 27 62
Cody Morris R 27 2 2 4.53 25 9 53.7 49 27 8 26 59
Ian Hamilton R 29 4 4 4.14 39 2 54.3 45 25 7 27 66
Ryan Weber R 33 3 5 4.82 18 9 61.7 70 33 10 11 38
Tommy Kahnle R 34 2 2 4.15 48 2 43.3 35 20 7 18 52
Scott Effross R 30 3 2 4.00 42 0 45.0 42 20 6 11 42
Keynan Middleton R 30 2 2 3.88 48 0 46.3 39 20 7 17 55
Jack Neely R 24 5 5 4.17 41 0 58.3 50 27 8 23 65
Josh Maciejewski L 28 4 6 4.82 23 6 56.0 57 30 9 21 45
Anthony Misiewicz L 29 4 4 4.50 39 3 48.0 47 24 8 16 47
Nick Ramirez L 34 2 2 4.42 43 1 53.0 54 26 8 17 47
Wandy Peralta L 32 3 3 4.41 58 0 51.0 44 25 7 23 49
Luke Weaver R 30 3 4 5.33 25 21 101.3 109 60 18 38 91
Jimmy Cordero R 32 1 1 4.32 36 0 41.7 35 20 6 15 49
Michael Feliz R 31 2 1 4.38 32 1 37.0 34 18 6 13 37
Victor González L 28 4 4 4.53 49 2 49.7 45 25 7 22 49
Blane Abeyta R 25 5 8 5.40 21 18 100.0 104 60 16 47 73
Dennis Santana R 28 4 5 4.82 44 3 52.3 48 28 8 25 53
Albert Abreu R 28 2 2 4.63 40 1 56.3 49 29 8 31 60
Kervin Castro R 25 3 3 4.63 33 1 46.7 43 24 7 24 47
Barrett Loseke R 27 2 3 4.70 25 1 44.0 42 23 7 22 43
Zach Greene R 27 3 3 4.87 28 2 40.7 37 22 6 21 41
Gray Fenter R 28 2 4 5.44 14 9 48.0 47 29 8 31 43
Yerry De Los Santos R 26 3 4 4.66 42 0 48.3 45 25 7 18 41
James Norwood R 30 2 2 4.67 32 0 34.7 32 18 5 18 40
Ron Marinaccio R 28 3 4 4.68 53 0 59.7 49 31 8 33 63
Michael Giacone L 27 2 3 4.88 17 0 27.7 26 15 4 14 28
Zach McAllister R 36 2 2 5.00 39 2 45.0 43 25 8 19 48
Aaron McGarity R 29 4 4 4.78 43 1 58.3 57 31 9 18 50
Indigo Diaz R 25 2 3 4.93 32 0 38.3 34 21 6 22 42
Danny Watson R 23 4 4 4.81 45 0 58.0 52 31 9 24 56
Duane Underwood Jr. R 29 3 3 5.05 39 2 51.7 53 29 8 20 43
Oddanier Mosqueda L 25 3 4 5.02 44 2 57.3 51 32 8 29 57
Derek Craft R 27 2 2 5.08 25 0 28.3 27 16 5 15 28
Nick Burdi R 31 0 0 5.66 22 0 20.7 19 13 4 14 28
Matt Minnick L 28 2 3 5.30 26 0 35.7 35 21 6 18 30
Bailey Dees R 25 2 2 5.06 38 0 53.3 50 30 8 26 48
Alex Mauricio R 27 2 2 5.31 32 0 40.7 42 24 6 19 31
Ryan Anderson L 25 3 4 5.44 31 1 46.3 46 28 7 22 38
Justin Maese R 27 2 2 5.54 28 0 37.3 37 23 6 21 33
Lisandro Santos L 25 2 4 5.55 32 1 47.0 44 29 7 34 46
Tanner Myatt R 26 2 3 5.29 39 0 47.7 43 28 7 33 48
Carlos Gomez R 26 3 4 5.64 34 0 52.7 51 33 8 34 47
D.J. Snelten L 32 1 2 7.04 26 0 30.7 29 24 6 33 33
Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Gerrit Cole 186.3 9.7 2.4 1.3 6.6% 26.4% .278 119 3.78 84 3.8
Marcus Stroman 138.0 7.2 2.9 1.1 7.5% 18.8% .283 104 4.31 96 2.1
Carlos Rodón 114.3 10.4 2.8 1.2 7.4% 27.9% .279 109 3.70 92 1.9
Nestor Cortes 102.7 8.7 2.5 1.2 6.7% 23.5% .276 109 3.98 92 1.7
Clarke Schmidt 130.7 8.9 2.9 1.3 7.5% 23.2% .296 95 4.32 105 1.5
Domingo Germán 98.0 9.2 2.4 1.4 6.5% 24.9% .275 102 4.12 98 1.3
Luis Gil 92.3 11.1 5.0 1.3 12.6% 28.2% .283 98 4.37 102 1.2
Will Warren 118.7 7.8 3.5 1.2 9.0% 20.2% .287 93 4.59 108 1.1
Chase Hampton 104.0 8.4 3.2 1.5 8.2% 21.5% .285 92 4.58 109 1.0
Sean Boyle 86.3 7.4 2.4 1.3 6.3% 19.5% .286 92 4.56 109 0.8
Clayton Beeter 107.0 9.1 4.5 1.3 11.2% 22.7% .282 88 4.86 114 0.8
Tanner Tully 98.3 5.8 2.4 1.3 6.2% 14.9% .293 88 4.74 113 0.7
Clay Holmes 61.0 9.9 3.5 1.0 9.3% 26.1% .273 110 3.98 91 0.6
Jonathan Loáisiga 51.3 8.1 2.3 1.1 6.1% 21.7% .278 114 3.92 87 0.6
Edgar Barclay 71.3 9.0 3.9 1.3 10.0% 23.0% .285 90 4.64 111 0.5
Yoendrys Gómez 74.3 8.5 4.6 1.3 11.6% 21.3% .282 87 4.99 115 0.5
Matt Krook 82.0 9.8 5.6 1.2 13.8% 24.1% .286 87 4.84 115 0.4
Cody Poteet 66.3 8.4 3.7 1.5 9.4% 21.7% .279 89 4.90 113 0.4
Cody Morris 53.7 9.9 4.4 1.3 11.0% 24.9% .293 93 4.56 108 0.4
Ian Hamilton 54.3 10.9 4.5 1.2 11.4% 27.8% .288 102 4.10 98 0.4
Ryan Weber 61.7 5.5 1.6 1.5 4.2% 14.5% .297 87 4.81 114 0.4
Tommy Kahnle 43.3 10.8 3.7 1.5 9.8% 28.3% .272 101 4.34 99 0.3
Scott Effross 45.0 8.4 2.2 1.2 5.9% 22.7% .286 105 3.99 95 0.3
Keynan Middleton 46.3 10.7 3.3 1.4 8.8% 28.5% .283 108 4.01 92 0.3
Jack Neely 58.3 10.0 3.5 1.2 9.1% 25.8% .284 101 4.15 99 0.3
Josh Maciejewski 56.0 7.2 3.4 1.4 8.5% 18.3% .287 87 5.02 115 0.2
Anthony Misiewicz 48.0 8.8 3.0 1.5 7.8% 22.8% .293 94 4.53 107 0.2
Nick Ramirez 53.0 8.0 2.9 1.4 7.5% 20.7% .299 95 4.46 105 0.1
Wandy Peralta 51.0 8.6 4.1 1.2 10.6% 22.5% .270 95 4.65 105 0.1
Luke Weaver 101.3 8.1 3.4 1.6 8.5% 20.4% .306 79 4.98 127 0.1
Jimmy Cordero 41.7 10.6 3.2 1.3 8.6% 28.0% .284 97 4.22 103 0.1
Michael Feliz 37.0 9.0 3.2 1.5 8.3% 23.7% .283 96 4.58 104 0.1
Victor González 49.7 8.9 4.0 1.3 10.2% 22.7% .281 93 4.68 108 0.1
Blane Abeyta 100.0 6.6 4.2 1.4 10.5% 16.3% .287 78 5.62 128 0.0
Dennis Santana 52.3 9.1 4.3 1.4 10.9% 23.0% .286 87 4.82 114 0.0
Albert Abreu 56.3 9.6 5.0 1.3 12.4% 24.0% .281 91 4.89 110 0.0
Kervin Castro 46.7 9.1 4.6 1.4 11.6% 22.7% .286 91 4.86 110 0.0
Barrett Loseke 44.0 8.8 4.5 1.4 11.2% 21.9% .289 89 4.94 112 0.0
Zach Greene 40.7 9.1 4.6 1.3 11.8% 23.0% .284 86 4.93 116 0.0
Gray Fenter 48.0 8.1 5.8 1.5 13.7% 19.0% .285 77 5.69 129 -0.1
Yerry De Los Santos 48.3 7.6 3.4 1.3 8.8% 20.1% .275 90 4.81 111 -0.1
James Norwood 34.7 10.4 4.7 1.3 11.6% 25.8% .303 90 4.38 111 -0.1
Ron Marinaccio 59.7 9.5 5.0 1.2 12.7% 24.2% .268 90 4.90 111 -0.1
Michael Giacone 27.7 9.1 4.6 1.3 11.4% 22.8% .293 86 4.63 116 -0.1
Zach McAllister 45.0 9.6 3.8 1.6 9.7% 24.5% .294 84 5.03 119 -0.1
Aaron McGarity 58.3 7.7 2.8 1.4 7.3% 20.2% .284 88 4.83 114 -0.1
Indigo Diaz 38.3 9.9 5.2 1.4 12.6% 24.1% .283 85 4.98 117 -0.1
Danny Watson 58.0 8.7 3.7 1.4 9.6% 22.5% .274 88 5.00 114 -0.2
Duane Underwood Jr. 51.7 7.5 3.5 1.4 8.8% 18.9% .294 83 4.94 120 -0.2
Oddanier Mosqueda 57.3 8.9 4.6 1.3 11.6% 22.8% .279 84 4.96 119 -0.2
Derek Craft 28.3 8.9 4.8 1.6 11.7% 21.9% .286 83 5.27 121 -0.2
Nick Burdi 20.7 12.2 6.1 1.7 14.4% 28.9% .313 74 5.67 134 -0.3
Matt Minnick 35.7 7.6 4.5 1.5 11.3% 18.9% .282 79 5.53 126 -0.3
Bailey Dees 53.3 8.1 4.4 1.4 11.1% 20.4% .280 83 5.15 120 -0.3
Alex Mauricio 40.7 6.9 4.2 1.3 10.3% 16.8% .290 79 5.20 126 -0.3
Ryan Anderson 46.3 7.4 4.3 1.4 10.4% 18.0% .285 77 5.46 129 -0.4
Justin Maese 37.3 8.0 5.1 1.4 12.1% 19.1% .290 76 5.51 132 -0.4
Lisandro Santos 47.0 8.8 6.5 1.3 15.4% 20.8% .287 76 5.53 132 -0.4
Tanner Myatt 47.7 9.1 6.2 1.3 14.9% 21.6% .281 80 5.35 126 -0.4
Carlos Gomez 52.7 8.0 5.8 1.4 13.9% 19.2% .287 75 5.67 134 -0.7
D.J. Snelten 30.7 9.7 9.7 1.8 20.8% 20.8% .288 60 7.17 167 -0.9
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Gerrit Cole Max Scherzer Stephen Strasburg Urban Shocker
Marcus Stroman Mike Morgan John Denny Mark Portugal
Carlos Rodón Teddy Higuera Mike Cuellar Ron Guidry
Nestor Cortes Bob Ojeda Tyler Anderson Bobby Shantz
Clarke Schmidt John Crocco Bob Locker Jack Taylor
Domingo Germán Jesse Flores Craig Swan Scott Sanderson
Luis Gil Red Witt Tom Cheney Tyler Glasnow
Will Warren A.J. Cole Brian Sikorski Larry Jackson
Chase Hampton Jordan Lyles Jeremy Hefner Thomas Frondorf
Sean Boyle Monty Montgomery Jackson Todd Dave Frost
Clayton Beeter Darryl Kile Rich Gale Steve Dunning
Tanner Tully Lance Davis David Hurlbut Ramon Garcia
Clay Holmes Bruce Sutter Raisel Iglesias Jeff Montgomery
Jonathan Loáisiga Tommy Hunter Kelvin Herrera Jim Johnson
Edgar Barclay Wil Ledezma Eude Brito Gordon Knutson
Yoendrys Gómez Tom Kelley Gerardo Garcia Dave Tobik
Matt Krook David Purcey Andrew Miller Bobby Jones
Cody Poteet Dera Clark Matt Sergey George Throop
Cody Morris Jared Burton Ryan Kussmaul Jeff Plympton
Ian Hamilton Manny Acosta James Sherfy Jose Veras
Ryan Weber Silvano Quezada Donald Henthorne Dario Perez
Tommy Kahnle Moe Drabowsky Grant Balfour Troy Percival
Scott Effross Bob Howry Bobby Chouinard Donn Pall
Keynan Middleton Vicente Romo Cliff Politte Dan Miceli
Jack Neely Gary Mielke Josh Judy Ramon Pena
Josh Maciejewski Danny Lazar Wally Trice Oswaldo Mairena
Anthony Misiewicz John O’Donoghue Fernando Abad Tommy Phelps
Nick Ramirez Milt Shoffner Dave Koslo Jason Jacome
Wandy Peralta Jeremy Affeldt Rich Rodriguez Zack Britton
Luke Weaver Edwin Jackson Tom Hurd Salvatore Federico
Jimmy Cordero Jeff Russell Rafael Soriano Dave Smith
Michael Feliz Johnny Murphy Randy Veres Scott Bankhead
Victor González Ron Mahay John Hiller Jerry Vasto
Blane Abeyta Deck McGuire 맥과이어 Harvey Cohen Jake Woodford
Dennis Santana Deunte Heath Kevin Campbell Gonzalez Germen
Albert Abreu Jesus Colome Kyle Crick Jose Ramirez
Kervin Castro Rich Surhoff Barry Jones Sam Demel
Barrett Loseke Mike Crudale Jeff Austin Jeff McCurry
Zach Greene Bob Chakales Ken Sanders Mike Crudale
Gray Fenter Dennis Malseed Victor Cole 콜 Tom Newell
Yerry De Los Santos Edgmer Escalona Jeremy Accardo Sendy Rleal
James Norwood Scott Stranski Don Brennan Mel Queen
Ron Marinaccio Alan Mills J.J. Hoover Sammy Stewart
Michael Giacone Gerry Rub David Quinowski Larry Smith
Zach McAllister Hy Vandenberg Doug Brocail Mike Ryba
Aaron McGarity Bob Sadowski Willie Fraser Chase Whitley
Indigo Diaz Don Cooper Steve Foucault Bob Blyth
Danny Watson Johnny Klippstein James Hemric Keith Fleming
Duane Underwood Jr. Rob Scahill Roman Colon 콜론 Sandy Rosario
Oddanier Mosqueda Chubby Dean C.J. Riefenhauser Eury De La Rosa
Derek Craft Mike Heinen Kevin Meistickle Donald Hammitt
Nick Burdi Whit Wyatt Tim Stoddard Dick Selma
Matt Minnick Joe Harris Pete Cappadona Mike Santiago
Bailey Dees Don O’Riley Steve Cishek Barry Manuel
Alex Mauricio Brian Bargerhuff Matt Stites Michael Young
Ryan Anderson Alan McKay Lawrence Groover Carlos Rivas
Justin Maese Kevin Meistickle Michael Young Ryan Baker
Lisandro Santos Alan McKay Ryne Slack Ramon Benjamin
Tanner Myatt Gil Downs Joe Valentine Dave Sells
Carlos Gomez Adrian Hollinger Pat Collins Craig Hanson
D.J. Snelten Terry Rosenkranz Greg McCarthy Lyle Prempas
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Gerrit Cole .221 .284 .393 .229 .274 .384 4.9 2.6 3.01 4.06
Marcus Stroman .251 .314 .406 .244 .300 .402 2.8 1.1 3.60 4.66
Carlos Rodón .206 .264 .320 .222 .289 .393 2.8 0.8 3.21 4.85
Nestor Cortes .240 .295 .427 .230 .281 .385 2.4 0.8 3.23 4.63
Clarke Schmidt .263 .328 .458 .234 .299 .388 2.4 0.5 3.84 5.05
Domingo Germán .234 .289 .415 .227 .282 .400 2.0 0.6 3.52 4.85
Luis Gil .224 .330 .391 .211 .313 .368 2.0 0.2 3.63 5.12
Will Warren .261 .345 .459 .235 .299 .366 1.9 0.2 4.00 5.19
Chase Hampton .262 .330 .445 .234 .288 .421 1.8 0.2 3.91 5.26
Sean Boyle .272 .348 .449 .233 .286 .394 1.4 0.1 3.98 5.34
Clayton Beeter .249 .349 .437 .224 .314 .388 1.5 -0.2 4.25 5.60
Tanner Tully .256 .309 .408 .279 .326 .461 1.2 0.1 4.35 5.37
Clay Holmes .237 .336 .412 .198 .274 .321 1.2 -0.3 3.09 5.18
Jonathan Loáisiga .250 .313 .398 .222 .274 .370 1.0 0.0 3.09 4.60
Edgar Barclay .203 .312 .316 .251 .332 .436 1.1 -0.3 4.00 5.59
Yoendrys Gómez .246 .341 .415 .234 .329 .407 1.0 -0.1 4.33 5.52
Matt Krook .181 .310 .245 .251 .358 .452 1.2 -0.6 4.08 5.84
Cody Poteet .246 .319 .460 .238 .320 .400 0.9 -0.1 4.22 5.51
Cody Morris .255 .354 .480 .220 .301 .349 0.9 -0.1 3.86 5.20
Ian Hamilton .211 .318 .358 .227 .312 .391 0.9 -0.3 3.38 5.12
Ryan Weber .283 .331 .483 .277 .301 .446 0.7 -0.1 4.32 5.50
Tommy Kahnle .224 .306 .382 .209 .296 .419 0.9 -0.3 3.13 5.54
Scott Effross .247 .310 .403 .237 .279 .402 0.7 -0.2 3.27 5.02
Keynan Middleton .234 .314 .416 .214 .278 .388 0.8 -0.2 3.05 4.71
Jack Neely .250 .336 .385 .205 .277 .393 0.8 -0.3 3.43 4.97
Josh Maciejewski .232 .308 .348 .270 .337 .487 0.6 -0.2 4.22 5.58
Anthony Misiewicz .229 .280 .386 .263 .328 .466 0.7 -0.2 3.62 5.38
Nick Ramirez .254 .320 .373 .261 .312 .465 0.7 -0.3 3.56 5.29
Wandy Peralta .208 .305 .361 .240 .326 .413 0.7 -0.5 3.69 5.43
Luke Weaver .278 .353 .479 .259 .315 .458 0.9 -0.6 4.66 6.05
Jimmy Cordero .233 .333 .425 .214 .287 .369 0.6 -0.5 3.35 5.80
Michael Feliz .246 .329 .477 .234 .294 .390 0.4 -0.3 3.65 5.33
Victor González .206 .299 .338 .252 .340 .439 0.5 -0.3 3.84 5.25
Blane Abeyta .281 .377 .444 .248 .336 .454 0.4 -0.7 5.05 5.96
Dennis Santana .241 .340 .448 .237 .323 .395 0.4 -0.5 4.21 5.68
Albert Abreu .213 .336 .394 .242 .338 .400 0.4 -0.6 3.96 5.46
Kervin Castro .256 .347 .430 .223 .321 .404 0.4 -0.4 4.02 5.38
Barrett Loseke .256 .356 .423 .237 .314 .441 0.3 -0.5 4.12 5.67
Zach Greene .253 .349 .387 .222 .326 .444 0.3 -0.5 4.21 5.81
Gray Fenter .259 .382 .447 .243 .342 .437 0.4 -0.5 4.79 6.43
Yerry De Los Santos .238 .333 .417 .245 .310 .412 0.3 -0.5 4.01 5.44
James Norwood .246 .352 .426 .233 .305 .411 0.3 -0.5 3.77 5.83
Ron Marinaccio .220 .338 .394 .217 .331 .365 0.5 -0.8 4.02 5.66
Michael Giacone .250 .351 .406 .240 .318 .427 0.1 -0.3 4.25 5.66
Zach McAllister .247 .333 .447 .244 .337 .444 0.3 -0.7 4.09 6.56
Aaron McGarity .266 .341 .459 .235 .303 .403 0.4 -0.6 4.09 5.48
Indigo Diaz .232 .346 .435 .231 .330 .397 0.2 -0.6 4.22 5.83
Danny Watson .227 .317 .400 .241 .338 .429 0.3 -0.7 4.15 5.64
Duane Underwood Jr. .269 .343 .462 .252 .323 .423 0.2 -0.6 4.35 6.10
Oddanier Mosqueda .195 .315 .312 .254 .352 .444 0.3 -0.8 4.34 6.04
Derek Craft .260 .351 .480 .233 .329 .433 0.0 -0.4 4.51 6.02
Nick Burdi .231 .388 .436 .244 .360 .439 0.0 -0.6 4.83 7.39
Matt Minnick .256 .360 .419 .250 .342 .458 0.0 -0.6 4.67 6.18
Bailey Dees .238 .350 .386 .248 .328 .448 0.1 -0.7 4.43 5.66
Alex Mauricio .267 .375 .440 .256 .316 .442 -0.1 -0.7 4.71 6.04
Ryan Anderson .208 .311 .358 .271 .371 .465 0.0 -0.7 4.84 6.13
Justin Maese .275 .383 .493 .234 .333 .403 -0.1 -0.7 4.92 6.50
Lisandro Santos .246 .377 .421 .240 .360 .416 0.0 -0.9 4.84 6.57
Tanner Myatt .247 .390 .432 .225 .328 .392 0.0 -0.9 4.59 6.27
Carlos Gomez .280 .382 .516 .223 .353 .357 -0.3 -1.1 5.08 6.39
D.J. Snelten .231 .400 .359 .250 .425 .513 -0.5 -1.5 5.87 9.54
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023. Percentiles are based on the projected PA or TBF.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.