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Post by kaybli on Sept 25, 2024 16:45:50 GMT -5
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Post by bumper on Sept 25, 2024 17:17:23 GMT -5
stroman starting as nestor goes on the 15-day. verdugo sits. think this is our best lineup.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 25, 2024 17:34:05 GMT -5
Zack Eflin starts the middle game for the O’s, who clinched a playoff spot last night and are hoping to keep pressure on the Yanks for the division title. Since the last time he faced the Yanks, the Rays traded him to the O’s for three prospects. He’s pitched great for the O’s, going 4-2 in 8 starts with a 2.31 ERA, and although he’s pitched well in his last three starts, he hasn’t won any of them because the O’s weren’t scoring for him, just 4 runs while he was in the game. In his last start against the Giants, Seranthony Dominguez blew the save by giving up the game-tying single in the 9th to Casey Schmitt, before Santander hit a game-winning 2-run HR in the bottom of the inning. On the season, Eflin is 10-9 in 27 starts with an ERA of 3.53. In 160 2/3 innings, he’s allowed 162 hits, 68 runs, 63 earned, 21 HR, just 19 BB and has struck out 133. Despite allowing more than a hit an inning, his league-leading low BB rate of 1.1 per 9 innings has his WHIP at an excellent 1.127.
Against the Yanks, Eflin has made 8 starts, and has been outstanding. He’s just 3-3 but with a 2.11 ERA. In 47 innings, he’s allowed 39 hits, 15 runs, 11 earned, just 3 HR, and 10 BB and struck out 53. His WHIP against the Yanks is a superlative 1.043 and their team quadruple slash line against Eflin is .224/.269/.310/.579. This year, he made three starts for the Rays against the Yanks before he got dealt to Baltimore. In April, he threw 6 innings of 3-hit shutout ball, striking out 6, in a 2-0 Rays win. Just before the trade, he made back-to-back starts against the Yanks, one before the break in Tampa, another terrific start, going 7 innings, allowing 4 hits, 2 runs (1 earned) and striking out 6, but took a very tough 2-1 loss. In the 3rd game nine days later, his usual sterling command was off, as he walked 4 batters, which, if I remember right, was more than he walked in any game going back two years. He gave up 5 hits and 4 earned runs in 7 innings, taking another loss, this time 6-1 at the Stadium.
Repertoire: Eflin is notionally a 7-pitch kitchen sink, command and control righty, but he’s only thrown 5 sliders all season, so he’s a 6-pitch righty, really. He throws sinker, cutter, curve, sweeper, 4-seamer and change. The sinker has elite drop (top 8% in MLB), and above average tail into righties and into the inside corner on lefties. The cutter gets slightly above average drops and below average break inside on lefties. The sweeper has below average drop and moderately below average break inside on lefties. The curve gets below average drop and well above average break away from righties. The 4-seamer gets well below average rise (bottom 10% in MLB), and well above average run in on righties. The change has above average drop and tail. By run values, the sinker is a decent-sized plus, the cutter is a huge plus, the curve is fairly hefty minus, the sweep is a modest plus as is the 4-seamer. And the change is a small minus. Eflin’s chase rate is elite; top 10% in MLB, the FB velocity is bottom 20%, as is the FB spin, but as his most used FB is a sinker, that’s a good thing. The curve spin is just a hair below average, and he gets well above average extension. His game plan is to pitch to soft contact, and it’s working pretty well this year. His average exit velocity is below average, as is his hard-hit rate. The barrel rate is right around average. The line drive and flyball rates are roughly average; the ground ball rate is slightly below average and the popup rate is slightly above. Eflin’s swinging strike rate is below average, but the called strike rate is above average, and his CSW is….meh. Average. In luck factors, the BABIP is slightly high, the strand rate is average and the FB/HR rate is below average. His ERA estimations think his ERA should be ever-so-slightly higher: 3.60 instead of 3.53.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 25, 2024 17:36:58 GMT -5
Playing the Name Game: We've done this one before; more than three times before, in fact. There are 56 MLB players with the name Zach/Zachary. The only Hall of Famer so far is Zack Wheat, the outfielder from the 1900's-10's-20' who played mostly for the Dodgers, had almost 2900 hits and a lifetime .317 BAVG, though the recently retired 20-season starter Zack Grienke stands an excellent chance of joining Wheat in the Hall someday. The best Zack in the majors right now is Phillies starter Zack Wheeler, and Zach is the only Eflin in MLB history. Aside from Wheat, the best hitting Zach is Zach Cozart, the infielder who played mostly with the Reds from 2011 through 2019. He almost had a lifetime BAVG of .250, winding up at .247. He almost had a slugging percentage of .400, retiring at .399. He almost had an OPS of 700, retiring at .699. Cozart had one outstanding season, his 2017 season, the last one with the Reds. He hit .297 with 24 HR, slugging .548 for an OPS of .933. It was the only year he made the All-Star team. The best active hitter named Zack is probably Angels shortstop Zach Neto, having the year Anthony Volpe wishes he was having. 23 HR, 77 RBI, 30 steals with just 8 caught, and a .755 OPS. He’s also playing an outstanding defensive shortstop, +10 in BIS’ Defensive Runs Saved.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 25, 2024 17:38:25 GMT -5
Nestor Cortes was supposed to start for the Yanks, but he’s been pulled out of his start because of elbow soreness. He’s been throwing harder than usual lately, topping out at 94, even 95 and he may have ended his season by doing so. He’s on the DL with a flexor strain, and he’ll be going for an MRI to see just how bad the damage is. Marcus Stroman moves back into the rotation to pitch the game tonight for the Yanks.
Stroman hasn’t started a game in two weeks, but did throw 64 pitches for a 3 inning save against the Mariners last Tuesday. So he might not be fully stretched out, but should be able to give the Yankees 70-80, assuming his command isn’t so far off that the O’s don’t knock him out early. This is the last time this spot in the rotation comes up this season, so it’s not a long-term issue, except insofar as it likely removes Cortes as an option for the 4th starter role in the post-season. The problem is that Stroman was the long/bulk reliever out of the pen, and now that he has to start, if he does get knocked out after just 2-3 innings, the Yanks will have to turn to Tim Hill and Clayton Beeter for bulk innings. Before throwing that solid 3 innings of relief against the M’s last week, he was ineffective in his last two starts, getting knocked out in the 4th inning against the Rangers, and giving up 7 hits, 2 BB and 3 runs against KC in a 5-0 loss.
Edit: Nestor has been put on the IL and Cody Poteet has been added, so he's another long/bulk reliever option.
On the season, Stroman has done what he can with the stuff he has left, which is underwhelming. He’s become a 7-pitch junkballing righty, trying to get a count to 2 strikes, then tricking the hitter into weak contact or a chase on a pitch not too far out of the zone. Overall, Stroman is 10-8 in 29 games, 28 starts with an ERA of 4.04. In 151 1/3 innings, he’s allowed 157 hits, 75 runs, 68 earned, 19 HR, 60 BB, with 112 K’s. He’s allowed more than a hit per inning, and is one of the MLB leaders in BB allowed, so it’s no surprise that his WHIP is a very poor 1.434. He’s no longer qualified in the rate stats, under by 5 2/3 innings, but if he were qualified, he’d have the 2nd highest H/9 among starters, the 4th highest BB per 9, the 2nd highest WHIP, the lowest K per 9, and the lowest K/BB ratio.
Against the O’s in his career, Stroman has pitched in 14 games, 13 of them starts. He’s 5-5 with a 3.21 ERA. In 81 1/3 innings, he’s allowed 87 hits, 32 runs, 29 earned, 6 HR, 17 and struck out 67. His WHIP against Baltimore is 1.279, and their team quadruple slash line against him is .278/.317/.390/.707. The Yanks avoided pitching him against the O’s in the first three series, probably intentionally. His last game against the O’s was in May, 2021, when they were still a terrible team. In a game for the Mets at CitiField, Stroman went 6 1/3 innings for a no-decision, giving up 5 hits, 1 earned run, 2 BB and 5 K’s in a game the Mets eventually won, 3-2. Given his decline, how relevant that game or his career stats against the O’s are is academic. It’s just my opinion, but the Yanks chances of winning this game have dropped measurably, and their chances of getting swept have increased by a similar amount.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 25, 2024 17:40:48 GMT -5
Yankees' lineup vs. Eflin:
1. Torres (2B) is 2-15 with 1 BB, 3 K and 2 GIDP
2. Soto (RF) is 17-34 with 4 doubles, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 5 BB, 8 K and 1 sac fly (this year, 6-9 with 2 doubles and 1 K, but no HR and no RBI)
3. Judge (CF) is 3-17 with 1 BB, and 10 K (!)
4. Wells (C) is 0-2 with 2 BB, 2 K and 1 sac bunt
5. Stanton (DH) is 1-10 with a two run HR, 1 BB and 4 K
6. Chisholm (3B) is 2-19 with 1 triple, 2 RBI, 1 BB and 7 K
7. Dominguez (LF) has never faced Eflin
8. Rizzo (1B) 5-22 with 1 double, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB and 3 K
9. Volpe (SS) is 5-16 with 1 double, 3 RBI and 4 K.
On the bench: Trevino is 0-5 with 1 K; Berti is 5-15 with 2 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP and 1 IBB; Grisham is 2-13 with 1 double, 2 RBI, 2 K and 1 sac fly; Cabrera is 2-4 with a 2-run HR. Pitchers Cole and his opponent Stroman are 0-1 with a K and 0-2 with 1 K vs. Eflin, respectively; oh, just for funsies, Verdugo is 4-20 with 1 double, 1 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
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O’s Lineup vs Stroman:
1. Henderson (SS) has never faced Stroman
2. Westburg (2B) hasn’t faced him either
3. Santander (RF) is 3-3 with 2 BB (Career OBA vs. Stroman: 1.000)
4. Cowser (LF) has never faced Stroman
5. Mountcastle (1B) is 0-3
6. O’Hearn (DH) has never faced Stroman
7. Urias (3B) hasn’t faced him either
8. Mullins (CF) is 1-6 with 1 GIDP
9. McCann is 3-9 with 3 K and 1 GIDP
On the Bench: Eflin, his opponent, is 0-2 vs. Stroman
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 25, 2024 17:42:21 GMT -5
Yesterday: the O’s beat the Yanks in every phase: better starting pitching, better relief pitching, better power hitting, better baserunning and better managerial decisions. The O’s were more desperate, trying to clinch their playoff spot as well as keep their tiny hopes of winning the division title back in the final week alive for as long as possible. The O’s grabbed an early 2-0 on a RBI grounder and RBI single by O’Hearn. The Yanks struck back on a solo HR by Judge, his 56th on the season, but the O’s equalized that on a solo HR by Santander, his 44th of the season, knocking out the Yankee starter Schmidt. Boone brought in Mayza to get out of the 6th, but he gave up another solo HR by Urias to make it 4-1, Baltimore. The Yanks got a couple of big 2-out hits in the 7th on Torres’ well executed inside out ground rule double to right and Soto's line single to right. Torres stopped at 3rd, but when Santander’s throw came all the way home to try to nail Verdugo scoring in front of Gleyber, Soto took 2nd, and when the O’s threw to 2nd, Torres foolishly took off for home with no chance of making it and they got him in a rundown to kill the rally that was basically the Yanks last real try at tying the game. Cowser immediately punished that TOOTBLAN with a solo HR of his own in the 8th, and the O’s late inning relievers shut the Yanks down in the last two innings for a 5-3 win. Kremer got the win, and is now 8-10 on the season. Schmidt got the loss, dropping to 5-5. Dominguez got his 11th save of the season and 10th with Baltimore. The loss cut the Yanks’ lead to 5 in the East, kept the Magic Number for the division at 1, broke their 3-game win streak, and dropped them back to 27 games over .500 at 92-65.
In other games with post-season implications:
The Tigers kept chugging through the competition on the strength of their pitching, taking a pitchers’ duel from the Rays in Detroit, 2-1. Tarik Skubal shut out Tampa for 7 innings on 2 hits, striking out 7. Skubal is now 18-4 on the season. Ryan Pepiot pitched solidly, 2 ER in 5 innings, but took the loss, dropping to 8-7. Wencel Perez hit a 2-run double in the 5th for the Detroit runs. Beau Brieske pitched the last two innings for the Tigers, giving up a solo HR to Brandon Lowe with 2 down in the 9th, but held on for his 1st save of the season.
The Royals outlasted the Nats in yet another pitcher’s duel, this one 10 innings, for a 1-0 Royals’ win. The starters (Ragans for KC, Parker for the Nats) threw shutout ball while they were in. The Royals broke through in the 10th, scoring their ghost-runner on a RBI single by Witt. Erceg struck out 2 in a 1-2-3 10th to lock it down for his 12th save. Zerpa got the win with a 1-2-3 9th, improving to 2-0 on the season. Kyle Finnegan gave up the Witt single and dropped to 3-7 on the year.
The Red Sox went into Toronto, and after falling behind early 3-0, tied it up with two in the 7th and one in the 8th. They broke through with 3 in the 10th on a RBI double by Story, a RBI groundout by Wong, and a RBI single by Grissom to take a 6-3 lead, then held on as the Jays rallied with two of their own on a RBI double by Jimenez, and then after a reliever I never heard of named Chase Shugart walked Horwitz to load the bases and then Kirk to force in a run, he got Barger to pop to 3rd to lock it down for a 6-5 win. Chris Martin pitched a 1-2-3 9th, getting the win to get to 3-1. Shugart got the first save of his career. Tommy Nance took the loss in relief, dropping to 0-3.
The Astros rallied from down 3-1 in the 4th on a solo HR by Tucker, and took the lead in the 5th on a two-run HR by Jason Heyward, who I didn’t even know was on the team, and their bullpen put together 3 ½ scoreless innings to hold down the 4-3 win, clinching the West for Houston. Valdez didn’t pitch well, but got the win, improving to 15-7 on the season. Hader retired 4 in a row in the 8th and 9th, including 3 K’s, for his 34th save. Logan Gilbert gave up all 4 runs in 6 innings, taking the loss, and falling to 8-2 on the year.
The Twins failed to take advantage of a break in their schedule as Bailey Ober allowed a weak Marlins’ lineup to knock him around for 4 runs in the 2nd. He didn’t give up any more in his 6 innings, but all the Twins offense could manage against Ryan Weathers and three relievers was a RBI single by Royce Lewis in the 3rd, and the Twins lost another critical game, 4-1. Johan Bride hit his 9th HR to start the 2nd inning rally, and Xavier Edwards capped it with a 2-run double. Weathers gave up 1 run on 6 hits in 5 innings for 4th win against 6 losses, and new Miami closer Jesus Tinoco got the last 5 batters without allowing a runner for his 3rd save. Ober’s loss dropped him to 12-8.
In the NL, the games with playoff impact:
The Braves beat the Mets, 5-1; the Giants continued to hurt contenders, crushing the Diamondbacks, 11-0, and the Padres kept their division title hopes alive by beating the Dodgers, 4-2 (ex-Yankee Mike King gave up just one unearned run in 5 innings to get to 13-9 on the year).
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 25, 2024 17:47:11 GMT -5
Going into today’s games, The Yanks lead the O’s by 5 for the East title and the Magic Number is 1. The Guardians and Astros have wrapped up the AL Central and West. In the NL, the Phillies and Brewers have won the East and Central; the Dodgers lead the Padres by 2 games, and their Magic Number for clinching the division stayed at 4.
In the AL Wild Card chase:
The O’s wrapped up at least a Wild Card with their win over the Yanks, their Magic Number for the 1st Wild Card is 2, and for winning the East outright is 10.
The Royals and Tigers are tied for the 2nd and 3rd Wild Cards, with the Royals holding the tiebreaker because they beat the Tigers in the season’s series 7-6. Their Magic Numbers for clinching a playoff spot is 4.
The Twins still hold the first chase spot, trailing both KC and Detroit by 2 with a tragic number of 4. The Mariners are ½ game back of Minnesota with a tragic number of 3. The Red Sox are ½ game behind Seattle with a tragic number of 2. The Rays are 5 games behind both the Tigers and Royals with a tragic number of 1...
Rube Goldbergian digression time here…and I don’t understand why they’re not already eliminated. Maybe if they tie with just the Royals, it’s the fourth tiebreaker, because their head-to-head is 3-3, and to tie the Royals they have to beat the Tigers twice, and two teams’ interdivision records would then be 30-34 each. The fourth tiebreaker is 2nd half intraleague record, which I don’t feel like adding up right now. If they tie the with Tigers alone, they lose the 2nd tiebreaker, interdivisional record, with the Tigers 34-30 and the Rays 30-34. And if they tie them both, the Royals take one wild card by winning the tie within the division on head-to-head record, and then the Tigers beat the Rays on interdivisional record again…
Anyway: in the NL, things are quite a bit more comprehensible:
The Padres hold the first Wild Card by 4 games over the Mets, 4 ½ over Arizona and 5 over the Braves. As both Atlanta and Arizona have 71 losses, and the Padres have 91 wins, their magic number for any Wild Card is down to 1.
The Mets hold the 2nd wild card by ½ game over the D’backs and 1 game over the Braves. Their magic number for any Wild Card is 5, against either of the two teams chasing them.
The D’backs have the 3rd wild card by ½ game. They’re tied with the Braves on the loss side, so for both teams, the magic number to eliminate the other is 6, and to eliminate the Mets, the magic number is 7 for Atlanta and 6 for Arizona because the D’backs have one more win.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 25, 2024 17:49:10 GMT -5
This afternoon, the Mariners played the Astros in the rubber game of their series in Houston, and thrashed the Astros 8-1. George Kirby threw 6 strong innings, 4 hits, 1 run and 6 K’s to get to 14-11; Yusei Kikuchi pitched well for 6 innings, but gave up two unearned runs for the loss, dropping to 9-10. Justin Turner hit a 2-out, 2-run single in the 6th to get the M’s going after Moore reached on an error to start the inning. Seattle got 3 in the 7th and 3 more 9th to break it open. The M’s are now tied with the Twins, 2 games behind the Royals and Tigers and 1 ½ games ahead of Boston.
In other games:
Rays at Detroit at 6:40 pm: Zack Littell (8-9, 3.58 ERA) vs. Keider Montero (6-6, 4.86 ERA). The Rays need to win or they’re eliminated from the playoffs.
Royals at Nationals at 6:45 pm: Michael Lorenzen (7-6, 3.43) vs. DJ Herz (4-8, 4.30)
Red Sox at Blue Jays at 7:07 pm: Richard Fitts (0-0 and unscored on in 15 2/3 innings in 3 starts) vs. Kevin Gausman (13-11, 3.91 ERA)
Mets at Braves at 7:20 pm: David Peterson (9-3, 3.08 ERA) vs. Chris Sale (18-3, 2.38 ERA). This one is already rained out (and so is tomorrow’s game) because of the Hurricane moving through Florida and into the Atlanta area tomorrow and the storms out in front of it in the outer bands. Double-header in Atlanta scheduled for Monday starting at 1 pm. Wild; a double-header that might be make-or-break in the playoffs for not just the two teams playing it, but a 3rd team as well. Unprecedented in MLB history.
Marlins at Twins at 7:40 pm: Edward Cabrera (4-8, 5.12 ERA) vs. Simeon Woods-Richardson (5-5, 4.00 ERA).
Giants at Diamondbacks at 9:40 pm: Mason Black (1-4, 5.88 ERA) vs. Zac Gallen (13-6, 3.74 ERA)
Padres at Dodgers at 10:10 pm: Dylan Cease (14-11, 3.42 ERA) vs. Jack Flaherty (13-7, 3.10 ERA)
And at 7:07 pm at the Stadium, it’s Eflin vs. Stroman. See you then.
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Post by cocopugg on Sept 25, 2024 18:06:07 GMT -5
Look for the Yanks to score early and score often, knowing Stroman is on the mound tonight.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 25, 2024 18:07:40 GMT -5
Look for the Yanks to score early and score often, knowing Stroman is on the mound tonight. They're likely to need to, coco. |
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 25, 2024 18:08:04 GMT -5
Yanks on the field. Stroman throwing his final warmups.
Henderson getting ready to step in.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 25, 2024 18:09:15 GMT -5
Stroman has finished warming up. Henderson steps up to the plate.
Game underway...
Sinker inner 3rd, maybe brushes the very bottom of the zone, 0-1, 0-1% on Gameday.
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Post by bumper on Sept 25, 2024 18:10:14 GMT -5
henderson beats volpe's throw for an IF hit.
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Post by chiyankee on Sept 25, 2024 18:10:20 GMT -5
Nice effort by Volpe but Henderson is too fast.
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