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Post by kaybli on Sept 26, 2024 17:27:04 GMT -5
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Post by kaybli on Sept 26, 2024 17:27:37 GMT -5
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Post by JEGnj on Sept 26, 2024 17:42:36 GMT -5
Working overnights so need to nap for a few hours. Will catch the ending on the radio.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 26, 2024 17:48:36 GMT -5
Corbin Burnes, the O’s ace, goes to the mound tonight looking to complete the sweep, and keep the Yanks from clinching against Baltimore. Burnes pitched well in a game in the 4-game series the Yanks and Orioles played in late April-early May, so no career recap is needed. He’s been an outstanding starter for several years, and except for a 5-game slump in August, he’s been an ace again this season as well. Since facing the Yanks, Corbin is 12-7 in 24 starts with an ERA of 3.04. In August, he was 1-3 in 5 starts with an ERA of 7.36, but has since corrected whatever was going wrong, and in 4 starts in September, he’s 3-1 with a 1.08 ERA, just 1 HR allowed in 25 innings. He’s coming off back to back wins against a hot Tigers team, throwing 7 shutout innings in each game, allowing just 5 hits total. On the season as a whole, Burnes is 15-8 with a 2.95 ERA in 31 starts. He’s pitched 189 1/3 innings, allowing 163 hits, 75 runs, 62 earned (a very high unearned run percentage in the modern game, 17%, when the AL league average is roughly half of that percentage), 21 HR, 47 BB and struck out 172. His WHIP for the season is an excellent 1.109. He’s among the league leaders in: ERA (5th), wins (tied for 5th), winning percentage (6th), WHIP (10th), BB per 9 innings (9th), innings pitched (5th), starts (tied for 7th) and HR per 9 innings (10th). He might not be a leading Cy Young contender, but I’d be surprised if he weren’t in the top 10, maybe top 5.
Against the Yanks, Burnes has made just two starts, but both were excellent: 8 inning of no-hit ball at the Stadium late last year. Cole threw 7 shutout innings against him to deny him the win, and the bullpen of both teams gave up multiple rallies in extra innings with the Yanks coming out on top 4-3 on a walk-off double by Higashioka in the 13th inning. This year, he again pitched very well: 6 innings of of hit, 2-run ball, with just 1 BB and 6 K’s. His only mistake was hit for a 2-run HR right down the line by Oswaldo Cabrera, and this time, it was Luis Gil who shutout the O’s for 6 1/3 innings. Clay Holmes had one of his good games, holding the O’s to 1 hit and striking out 3 for a save. Burnes' totals against the Yanks in the two starts: 0-1 with a 1.29 ERA; 14 innings, just 4 hits, 2 runs (earned) 1 HR, 3 BB and 13 K’s. His WHIP against New York is a ridiculously low 0.500, and the team’s quadruple slash line against him is as awful as you’d think: .089/.146/.156/.301. albeit in just 48 PA.
Repertoire: On paper, Burnes throws 6 pitches, but the 3 sweepers he’s supposed to have thrown this season might be a coding error on his slider. Otherwise, he’s a 5-pitch righty: relying heavily on his cutter which averages 95+ and is his primary “fastball”, but also throws curve, slider, change and sinker. The cutter gets above average drop and well above average IVB, and above average break into lefties. The curve gets well above average drop, and above average break away from righties. The slider gets well above average drop and elite break into lefties. The change gets below average drop, and below average tail into righties. The sinker gets below average drop, and well below average tail away from lefties whether outside corner off the plate, or Maddux-like into the inside corner. In run values, the cutter is one of the single most valuable pitches in baseball this season, a sizeable plus per pitch, and he throws so many of them, the total run value for the season is +18 runs. The curve is a moderate plus, the slider is a somewhat more than moderate plus. The sinker is a moderate minus, and the change grades out as neutral, 0.0 runs per pitch. He’s elite or near elite in: chase rate (top 11%), FB velocity (top 10%), FB spin (top %%) curve spin (top 10%), but his extension is just slightly above average. His average exit velocity is well below MLB average, the barrel rate is solidly below average, and the hard-hit rate is way below average. The line drive and flyball rates are solidly below average, the ground ball rate and popup rate are solidly above. The swinging strike rate is above average and the called strike rate is average, so the CSW is above average as well. The BABIP is slightly below average, the HR/FB is solidly below average. The strand rate is average. The luck factors are in his favor; his ERA estimators think the ERA should be more like 3.48 rather than 2.95, but once again, the “elite pitchers make their own luck” rule applies.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 26, 2024 17:51:00 GMT -5
Playing the Name Game: Corbin is the only Burnes in MLB history, there are about two dozen Burns’, including two very good hitters, both named George Burns, more or less contemporaries in from about 1910 through 1925, 1930. First baseman George played 16 seasons, including two very brief stays with the Yanks in 1928 and 1929, 13 games in all. He retired with a lifetime BAVG of .307 and had more than 2000 hits, and won the pre-modern MVP award in the AL. The official BBWAA MVP awards didn’t start until 1931, but the two leagues gave awards for the “player who was of most service to his team” from 1922 to 1928. Burns won this award in 1926 with a league leading 216 hits and a league-leading 64 doubles, which set an MLB record at the time. Earl Webb topped it with 67 in 1931, but Burns is still tied for the 2nd most doubles in a season with Joe Medwick, who matched his 64 for the Cards in 1936. Burnes' last season was 1929, when he was a bench player for the champion Philadelphia A’s, the only title win of his career. The outfielder George arguably had a slightly better career: 40 bWAR to 35. He played 15 seasons, and retired after the 1925 season with over 2000 hits and a lifetime BAVG of .287. He led the NL in plate appearances five time, in runs scored four times, in walks five times and in stolen bases twice. He was on four NL pennant winners with the Giants, and won his only ring on the 1921 Giants team that beat the Yanks in the World Series 5 games to 3; the first of over 40 pennant winning teams for the Yanks. The best pitcher named Burns was Britt Burns, a lefty for the White Sox who won 70 games and lost 60 over 8 seasons from 1978 through 1985, making the All-Star team twice and getting down-ballot Cy Young votes in 1979 and 1985. He was 3rd in the AL in ERA in 1980, 5th in 1981. After his 2nd top season in 1985, in which he won 18 games and finished 7th in the Cy Young voting, the White Sox traded him to the Yankees for back of the rotation starter Joe Cowley and backup left-handed power-hitting catcher Ron Hassey. But he never pitched for the Yanks; before he could throw an inning for him, he went down with a degenerative hip condition, and after rehabbing for several seasons, his comeback attempt in 1990 failed. A bit of a sad story there; he was done at age 26 and the Yankees teams of the late 80’s always seemed one good starting pitcher short of being a solid contender; the lost the East by 2 ½ games in 1986 and 3 ½ games in 1988. A healthy Burnes might have meant the divisional title in either year.
There are only three MLB players with first name Corbin: Burnes is the best pitcher, and Corbin Carroll would be the best hitter even if he weren’t the only one; after a terrible 1st half, he’s recovered big-time to get to 56 extra-base hits, 21 HR, leads the NL in triples with 14, and is 2nd in runs scored at 119. He even has his bWAR up to 3.2 for the season. It’s still a very long road ahead, but he has a decent shot at a Hall of Fame career, having accomplished much at ages 21, 22, and 23.
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Post by bigjeep on Sept 26, 2024 17:52:31 GMT -5
Tough night! Giants are playing tonight also!  |
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 26, 2024 17:52:47 GMT -5
Gerrit Cole starts for the Yanks; his season was coming along nicely until the bizarre bases empty IBB to Devers two starts ago. He immediately unraveled after that for his worst start since coming off the IL with an elbow injury. He followed that up with his best start of the season, 9 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball, striking out 7 for a much-deserved win, albeit against a talented but exploitable A’s lineup. His season is schizophrenic, Sy Sperling against the Mets and Sox, Cy Young against everyone else. Overall, Cole is 7-5 with an ERA of 3.67 in 16 starts. In 88 1/3 innings, he’s allowed 76 hits, 38 runs, 36 earned, 11 HR, and 28 BB with 94 K’s. After a very poor first 7 games, he’s brought his WHIP on the season down to a solid 1.177. Against the O’s, Cole has made 14 starts and pitched quite well, but most of those were when the O’s were a very bad team. He’s 6-3 with an ERA of 2.57. In 87 2/3 innings, he’s allowed 67 hits, 32 runs, 25 earned, 6 HR and 16 BB while striking out 105. His WHIP against Baltimore is a superlative 0.947, and their quadruple team slash line against him is .204/.243/.378/.571. His only start against them this season was his first start off the IL. Limited by pitch count, he lasted just 4 innings, and pitched well: 4 innings, 3 hits, 2 runs (earned), 1 BB and 5 K’s. The line is slightly deceptive; he gave up a leadoff single to Cedric Mullins in the 5th and was pulled because of the pitch count. Ron Marinaccio came in to relieve him, and promptly served up a two-run HR to Urias, allowing Cole's inherited runner to score.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 26, 2024 17:54:30 GMT -5
Yankees' lineup vs. Burnes:
1. Torres (2B) is 0-5 with 1 K
2. Soto (RF) is 2-3 with 1 double and 1 BB
3. Judge (CF) is 0-6 with 2 K
4. Wells (C) is has never faced Burnes
5. Stanton (DH) is 0-5 with 1 BB and 2 K
6. Chisholm (3B) is 2-12 with 1 double and 4 K
7. Dominguez (LF) has never faced Burnes
8. Rizzo (1B) is 0-11 with 1 BB and 5 K
9. Volpe (SS) is 0-6 with 3 K
On the bench: Trevino is 1-2; Berti is 1-6 with 2 K, Grisham is 1-9 with a double and 5 K; Cabrera is 2-5 with a 2-run HR and 2 K (Hey! Analytical guys, wouldn’t this be a good time to get Cabrera a game at short? Or 1st? Or 3rd? Or 2nd? Or somewhere?) Verdugo is 2-5 with a RBI, 1 BB and 2 K. (OK, maybe not him…) and pitcher Rodon is 0-1.
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O’s Lineup vs Cole:
1. Henderson (SS) is 3-9 with 1 double, 1 solo HR, 1 BB and 2 K
2. Westburg (2B) is 0-3 with 1 K
3. Santander (RF) is 4-27 with 1 double, 2 BB, 8 K and 1 GIDP
4. Cowser (LF) is 0-4 with 3 K
5. Rutschman (DH) is 3-16 with 1 double, 1 RBI, 2 BB and 3 K
6. O’Hearn (1B) is 2-17 with 1 double, 1 HR, 2 RBI and 3 K
7. Urias (3B) is 7-16 with 2 doubles, 1 triple, 1 HR, 4 RBI and 4 K
8. Mullins (CF) is 10-29 with 1 double, 1 HR, 2 RBI and 5 K
9. McCann is 5-13 with 3 doubles, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB and 3 K
…and hey, get a load of that danger cluster at the bottom of the O’s order for Cole!
On the Bench: Mountcastle is 5-26, with 1 double, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 8 K and 1 GIDP; Kjerstad is 1-3, Slater is 2-3 with 1 K; and pitcher Eflin is 0-2 with 1 K
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 26, 2024 17:55:30 GMT -5
Yesterday: the O’s put on a clinic, taking advantage of Stroman’s lack of both stuff and command, Beeter’s inability to provide effective relief, some bad defense including another terrible play in left by Dominguez, and, yes a bit of seeing-eye luck on a couple of hits as they built up a 8-1 lead. Soto got two back with his 41st, and after the O’s got a run off of Poteet, the Yanks put some lipstick on the pig as they took advantage of the O’s slag-arm mop-up reliever Bowman for five runs, including a grand slam by Judge, his 57th HR of the season. After the slam, lefty reliever Akin came in to shut the door on Wells and Stanton for his first save, and the O’s took their 2nd straight, 9-7. Eflin had uncharacteristic control troubles, walking 5 in 4 2/3, partly caused by not giving in to Soto and Judge until he had a 7-run lead, and didn’t get the win. Jacob Webb pitched 1 1/3 scoreless in relief of Eflin to get the W and get to 1-1 on the year. Stroman took the loss to drop to 10-9.
In other games with post-season implications:
The Mariners broke it open late, scoring all their runs from the 6th inning on, and beat the Astros in Houston, 8-1. Kirby got the win, improving to 14-11. Kikuchi got the loss on two unearned runs, dropping to 9-10.
The Tigers knocked the Rays out of the playoffs with a 7-1 win. Zack Littell gave up 3 in 4 innings plus, dropping to 8-10. Keider Montero started and was lifted before he could finish 3 innings; Sean Guenther pitched 2 scoreless innings to get to 3-0 on the season and four other Tiger relievers threw 4 1/3 more scoreless, allowing just 3 hits and a BB.
The Royals shut out the Nats for the 2nd straight day, 3-0. Starter Lorenzen managed just 2 1/3 innings, giving way to former starter Lynch, who went 2 2/3 in a piggyback role, getting the win to improve to 2-0. Erceg again pitched a 1-2-3 9th for his 13th save. Grossman provided big time insurance with a 2 run single in the 6th to make it 3-0.
The Jays eliminated the Red Sox with a 6-1 win at Rogers Centre. Gausman threw 6 innings of 4-hit, 1-run ball to finish the season at 14-11. Ex-Yankee farmhard Fitts, dealt to the Sox in the Verdugo trade, finally gave up some runs, 4 in 5 innings, to take the loss. He’s 0-1 on the year. New leadoff man Jonathan Clase got 3 hits, scored 2 and knocked in two for the Jays, and Kirk had 3 hits and drove in 3.
The Twins finally broke through with 5 runs in the 7th, breaking a 3-3 tie, also breaking their losing streak at 3, winning 8-3. The key blows were two runs doubles by the Carloses: Correa, and then Santana, to close out the rally. Jax got the win in relief to get to 5-5 on the season; Petersen took the loss to drop to 3-1.
In the NL:
Hurricane Helene wiped out the Mets/Braves games last night and tonight; they’ll play a make-up double-header Monday with the season possibly on the line for both teams.
The Diamondbacks returned the favor of the Giants’ 11-0 pounding on Tuesday by smacking SF around, 8-2. Zac Gallen got the win to get to 14-6. Black took the loss to drop to 1-5.
The Dodgers got a RBI single from (who else?) Shohei Ohtani in the 6th to break a 3-3 time and held on to beat the Padres 4-3. Vesia got the win in relief to get to 5-4. Estrada took the loss in relief to drop to 6-3. Michael Kopech got his 15th save and 6th for LA.
Going into today’s games, The Yanks lead the O’s by 4 for the East title and the Magic Number is still 1. The Guardians and Astros have wrapped up the AL Central and West. In the NL, the Phillies and Brewers have won the East and Central; the Dodgers lead the Padres by 3 games, and their Magic Number for clinching is now 2.
In the AL Wild Card chase:
The O’s magic number for a Wild Card is down to 1, and for winning the East outright is 8.
The Royals and Tigers are tied for the 2nd and 3rd Wild Cards, with the Royals holding the tiebreaker because they beat the Tigers in the season’s series 7-6. Their Magic Numbers is 2 over the Mariners, 3 over the Twins.
The Twins still hold the first chase spot, trailing both KC and Detroit by 2 with a tragic number of 3. The Mariners are ½ game back of Minnesota with a tragic number of 2. The Red Sox and the Rays are eliminated from the playoffs.
Anyway: in the NL, things are quite a bit easier to follow:
The Padres hold the first Wild Card by 3 1/2 games over the Mets and Arizona and 4 1/2 over the Braves. As both Atlanta and Arizona have 71 losses, and the Padres have 91 wins, their magic number for any Wild Card is still 1.
The Mets hold the 2nd wild card by ½ game over the D’backs and 1 game over the Braves. Their magic number for any Wild Card is 5, against either of the two teams chasing them.
The D’backs have the 3rd wild card by ½ game. Their magic number to eliminate the Braves is now 4.
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Post by 1955nyyfan on Sept 26, 2024 17:58:22 GMT -5
Burns is tough, but Bombers get it done tonight.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 26, 2024 17:58:55 GMT -5
In key games earlier today:
The Royals broke a 4-4 tie with 3 in the 9th to complete their sweep of the Nats in DC, 7-4. Adam Frazier got the big hit, a two run single that made it 6-4. Bubic got the win in relief to get to 1-1. Erceg came in for the 3rd straight day and pitched his 3rd straight 1-2-3 for his 14th save. Nats’ closer Finnegan gave up the 3 in the 9th, taking the loss to drop to 3-8.
The Tigers rallied from 3-0 down to complete their sweep of the Rays, winning 4-3. Rookie Colt Keith contributed a RBI triple to make it 3-1 and scored on a single by Carpenter in the 6th. In the 2-run 8th he tied the game with a RBI single, and Malloy hit a sac fly for the winning run. Brieske was in the middle of things again, throwing a scoreless 7th and 8th for the win, getting to 4-4. Foley threw a 1-2-3 9th for his 27th save, striking out 2. Cleavinger gave up the runs in the 8th for the loss, falling to 7-5.
The Royals and Tigers put the Twins and Mariners in a worse position, they now lead Minnesota by 2 ½ and Seattle by 3. The tragic numbers are now 2 and 1, respectively.
In other games that matter: the Marlins and Twins play their rubber game at 7:40 pm in Minnesota. Junkballing righty Valente Bellozo (3-4, 3.82) starts for Miami. Struggling rookie David Festa (2-6, 4.80) goes for the Twins.
In LA, the Padres and Dodgers play their rubber game; the Dodgers clinch the West with a win. Joe Musgrove (6-5, 3.95) starts for San Diego; struggling TJ recovering veteran Walker Buehler (1-6, 5.63) starts for Los Angeles.
And in a few minutes at the Stadium, it’s Burnes vs. Cole See you then.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 26, 2024 18:08:19 GMT -5
Yanks on the field. Cole throwing his final warmups.
Henderson about ready to step in...
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 26, 2024 18:10:01 GMT -5
Henderson steps up to the plate. Game underway...
FB inside corner at 95.5, fouled off, 0-1
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 26, 2024 18:12:04 GMT -5
Henderson...
Slider down and in, taken, 1-1
FB inside at 95 makes him lift the arms a bit, 2-1
Knuckle curve away, topped foul near home, Wells plays it but the ump says foul ball, 2-2
FB waist high away, and Henderson barely missing, driving it high to deep left center, Judge runs over back on the track by the bullpen, catches it late, 1 down. Almost a leadoff HR.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 26, 2024 18:14:02 GMT -5
Statcast says the Henderson fly was a HR in 4 of 30 parks.
Westburg takes a FB low and away, 1-0
Takes a FB outside thigh high, 2-0
Takes a slider low, outside middle, 3-0
Takes a FB in the zone low and away
And YES is relying on someone else cameras because we get the stupid low behind the catcher angle and can't see the pitch, FB below middle at 98, topped to Volpe, throws him out, 2 down.
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