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Post by inger on Dec 18, 2018 12:37:26 GMT -5
This is a strange player, and it’s hard to figure out what he’s capable of. He has an injury history, but showed a great uptick in K’s last season that would cue the hope that he’s breaking out and could become a top of rotation starter. Yet, his 3.76 ERA was a 108+ for the season, which is similar to his career mark.
He allowed 134 hits in 160 career high innings, but 23 of them were HRs. Oddly, while RHH on hit .203 against him, they hit 20 of the 23?HR off him. LHH showed little power against him with only 3 HR, but they hit hit at a .330 rate.
He seems to have a slight ground ball tendency, so when it gets hit in the air, with a total of 37 XBH and those 23 HR it would appear that any thing hit in the air will be a bit frightening.
Any opinions on what we have?
The Marcel Projection is 10-7; 3.68 in 154 (I think) innings
With 20 HR allowed. If we can get those innings up to 190 or so without losing effectiveness or heading to the DL, it would appear 250 Ks are within reach but perhaps 30 HR could result as well.
Injury-free, I’d hope for 14-17 wins...If he can get his ERA back down to 2017 standards (3.24), he’s basically Severino from the left side.
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Post by michcusejoe5 on Dec 18, 2018 12:46:05 GMT -5
Paxton only has 112 PAs vs. LHB last year but those numbers are still strange. A .500 BABIP against lefties yielding a .330 average and .874 OPS??? This seems highly abnormal and due to normalize which would suggest maybe slightly better numbers. Though he is also moving away from a much more pitcher friendly park in Seattle. Hes a good pitcher when healthy...the key it health. The fact that he is 30 and has never thrown more than 160 innings in a season is what has always concerned me.
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Post by bluemarlin on Dec 18, 2018 13:22:38 GMT -5
This is a strange player, and it’s hard to figure out what he’s capable of. He has an injury history, but showed a great uptick in K’s last season that would cue the hope that he’s breaking out and could become a top of rotation starter. Yet, his 3.76 ERA was a 108+ for the season, which is similar to his career mark. He allowed 134 hits in 160 career high innings, but 23 of them were HRs. Oddly, while RHH on hit .203 against him, they hit 20 of the 23?HR off him. LHH showed little power against him with only 3 HR, but they hit hit at a .330 rate. He seems to have a slight ground ball tendency, so when it gets hit in the air, with a total of 37 XBH and those 23 HR it would appear that any thing hit in the air will be a bit frightening. Any opinions on what we have? The Marcel Projection is 10-7; 3.68 in 154 (I think) innings With 20 HR allowed. If we can get those innings up to 190 or so without losing effectiveness or heading to the DL, it would appear 250 Ks are within reach but perhaps 30 HR could result as well. Injury-free, I’d hope for 14-17 wins...If he can get his ERA back down to 2017 standards (3.24), he’s basically Severino from the left side. Injury free? If Paxton stays healthy,, he's as capable a 20-game winner as virtually any pitcher in the game. Since I think WHIP is a better indication of a pitcher's effectiveness than ERA, I think Paxton was better in 2018 than 2017. And a healthy Paxton will throw 200 innings. But MLB has been waiting on a fully healthy Paxton for years. |
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Post by michcusejoe5 on Dec 18, 2018 14:38:27 GMT -5
This is a strange player, and it’s hard to figure out what he’s capable of. He has an injury history, but showed a great uptick in K’s last season that would cue the hope that he’s breaking out and could become a top of rotation starter. Yet, his 3.76 ERA was a 108+ for the season, which is similar to his career mark. He allowed 134 hits in 160 career high innings, but 23 of them were HRs. Oddly, while RHH on hit .203 against him, they hit 20 of the 23?HR off him. LHH showed little power against him with only 3 HR, but they hit hit at a .330 rate. He seems to have a slight ground ball tendency, so when it gets hit in the air, with a total of 37 XBH and those 23 HR it would appear that any thing hit in the air will be a bit frightening. Any opinions on what we have? The Marcel Projection is 10-7; 3.68 in 154 (I think) innings With 20 HR allowed. If we can get those innings up to 190 or so without losing effectiveness or heading to the DL, it would appear 250 Ks are within reach but perhaps 30 HR could result as well. Injury-free, I’d hope for 14-17 wins...If he can get his ERA back down to 2017 standards (3.24), he’s basically Severino from the left side. Injury free? If Paxton stays healthy,, he's as capable a 20-game winner as virtually any pitcher in the game. Since I think WHIP is a better indication of a pitcher's effectiveness than ERA, I think Paxton was better in 2018 than 2017. And a healthy Paxton will throw 200 innings. But MLB has been waiting on a fully healthy Paxton for years. I dont think this is quite right, maybe half way. His WHIP between the two seaons was only .005 pts apart, which is a effectively a rounding error. No real way to make a determination that he was better in one year than another based on WHIP. Paxton was better in 2018 in the sense that he stayed on the field more / ate more innings and struck out batters at a higher clip. His walk and hit rate were completely flat (hence the statistically insignificant difference in WHIP) but the problem was his HR rate was up (more than doubled). This yielded a higher FIP in 2018 than 2017. It is good that he is pitching more innings and striking out more guys (on a per 9 inning basis) but the near doubling in HR rate was the biggest factor at play, which his while his FIP was 3.23 in 2018 vs. 2.61 in 2017. This is also the reason his WAR was higher in 2017 despite throwing 24 less innings. |
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Post by inger on Dec 18, 2018 17:31:07 GMT -5
Digging a bit deeper, the point about the splits last year being a small sample rang true, so I looked at 2017 and saw that Paxton had strong stats vs. LHH that season in 91 AB. One the other hand, it appears that was the oddity for him. His lifetime splits are very odd, and similar to those of 2018.
Vs. RHH .226/.278/.323
Vs. LHH .290/.352/.392
And LHH have only homered off him 6 times vs. 48 by RHH. The stats vs. LHH are limited to 400 and some AB. He’s allowed 6 x HR vs. RHH in about 3 X at bats...
All very odd indeed...
I would agree with michcuse’s points about 2017 standing as the better year rate-wise, and I agree strongly that the culprit in 2018 was entirely that elevated HR rate.
I have no idea what Paxton’s repertoire is, but I’m going to offer up a half-assed theory that perhaps he was using his off-speed stuff a bit more and getting great swing and miss results, but also speeding up the bats a bit for those that guessed right or recognized the spin on the ball. In YS that can be dangerous, but he and the pitching coach will need to make adjustments if needed.
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