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Post by kaybli on Aug 29, 2019 10:42:19 GMT -5
If you ever have the time, inger, how bout scouting reports on our own starting pitchers? It’s occurred to me... perhaps nice for the playoff matchups... Definitely!  |
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Post by inger on Aug 29, 2019 23:10:16 GMT -5
8/30/19 vs. Oakland / Brett Anderson 10-9; 4.08
Thirty one year old lefty relies on soft contact and ground balls. He hasn’t faced the Yankees yet in 2019, and this will be real test for him. The Yankees have battered him through the years to produce his 0-6; 6.86 ERA against, while batting .339 in 190 PA.
Batters who have swung at his first pitch this season have produced a .312 average with a .490 SLG as he highly values first pitch strikes. He’s allowed a .313/.372/.542 in high leverage situations. His tendency is to hit a wall around the fifth inning or third time through the order.
Anderson, like many low velocity sinker ballers, relies heavily on weak, ground ball contact, but allows more than an average of a hit per inning. He does a reasonable job of controlling the long ball, but at the expense of very little swing and miss in his game. His control is about average as demonstrated by his walk totals, though his walks are also controlled by as high contact rate against that eliminates deep counts in most starts.
He’s been quite consistent in his results throughout the season. No hot or cold streaks. Steady if not spectacular, his 4.08 ERA is a 106 + this year.
Sinker, 91. 40% of arsenal. Does it’s job. Usually around the plate and a strong GB rate.
Slider, 82. Good depth. Will sometimes leave it outside of zone to arm side. This appears to be mechanical, though some may be a desire to back door righty hitters. Ground ball are plentiful. About 20 % of mix.
Change, 83. Has some sink. FB, GB. And line drives all result depending on batters timing. 14-15% usage.
4 Seam fastball, 91. Was his bread and butter pitch years ago, now used about 20% of the time. It sinks and gives an extreme ground ball result, even more so than his sinker. Will occasionally lose this pitch to the arm side when tiring or suffering poor mechanics for some other reason.
Knuckle Curve, 76. Bites hard, reminds of Mussina’s. Under-used at about 6%. High contact rate against but extreme ground ball results.
Some say he has abandoned his cutter and some say that he still sneaks it into his sinker mix. It never cut much, so it was hard to discern, but it was unusual in that it was a fly ball pitch, which is outside his M.O..
The Yankee results vs. Anderson might be explained a bit more by explaining that the movement and speed of his pitches is quite similar to those of David Price...
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Post by inger on Aug 30, 2019 21:39:31 GMT -5
8/20 vs. Oakland A’s / Homer Bailey / 10-8; 5.22 If the 33 year old has one trait that stands out, it’s inconsistency. He’s made a dozen starts this season in which he’s shut his opponent down with 2 runs or less. That includes an early season vs. the Yanks where he surprised with a one run, three hit effort over six innings in a 6-1 KCR’s victory. He’s also been hit hard, early, and often in several other games. His 10-8 record is a bit surprising after he ushered his way out of Cincinnati last season with a 1-14 mark. This is the most wins he’s had since accumulating 11 in 2013. He’s a strike thrower that works the ball in and out much more than most pitchers, but does little up in the strike zone. He relies on weak contact to succeed and is an extreme reverse splits fellow. Tough on lefties, but righties tend to hit him him well and draw more walks than lefty hitters. One thing that struck me was his scatter charts. I already mentioned that he works the ball in and out more than up and down, and these charts showed how extreme that trait was. Some of his strike zone misses are extreme. Look for some hitters to dance out of the way. 4S fastball, 93. Has some natural sink. Nothing special, but on some nights it has extreme sink, and he’ll pile up more strikeouts with it than usual. Some even say he has two fastballs, one that is a true sinker, but I doubt that. The “true sinker” is such a dominant pitch that if it were a reliable and commendable option every night, he’d use it a lot more. Splitter, 84 has good sink and gets GB to the extreme. Hard slider at 88, 12-6 but not a lot of drop. Contact is frequent but on the ground more often than not. Knuckle curve at 79 is often hit airborne. It’s not a great curve, but it’s another off-speed option that he needs to keep batters out of rhythm. He’s had a better season than his 5.22 ERA indicates, and his FIP is middle 4’s...This may be a tougher assignment than expected. When he’s right, he’s no pushover... Homer is back for yet another go round. He’s now 12-8 this season. He’s been very effective in both starts vs. New York. Does he have the Yankees number or is he due to hit the crapper?... |
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Post by noetsi on Aug 30, 2019 21:42:45 GMT -5
Yes
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Post by inger on Sept 1, 2019 1:15:08 GMT -5
09/01/2019 vs. Oakland / Sean Manaea 0-0. ...
The 6’5”, 245 left hander was not being counted in to pitch in 2019 after major shoulder surgery, but he gets his first start of the season in Yankee Stadium.
It’s mystery as to what he’ll be doing in his return. He was a guy with a 97-MPH fastball a couple of seasons ago. Then, in 2018 his velocity dropped to 91 on his 4S fastball, but he was more effective. He was saying he wasn’t hurt, but had slowed his pitches down to gain more command and movement. That seemed a credible story until it came out that he needed shoulder surgery. Is some or all of the velocity back? If so, will he really throttle down?
About all I can do is show you what his arsenal was in 2018. We’re likely not looking at the full package now anyway.
He has always eaten LHH alive with his slider (lifetime ERA + 66) and gotten average results vs. RHH. Like most Oakland pitchers, he’s allowed about a half a run less per 9 at home vs. the road. In his AAA tuneups there was good news and bad news. His ERA was 3.21 and was accompanied by a 0.79 WHIP. The 5 HR allowed in just 28 innings indicates that he may be much more vulnerable to the long ball than his career norm.
4S fastball, 91. Uses this 56% of the time since he only features three pitches. In 2018, he learned to pitch RHH inside on occasion with the pitch and it became a better weapon. Since the pitch has much more arm side run than most 4SFB, sometimes it leaks back out over the plate and gets hit for HR. This pitch also has a lot of sink, more than even most pitchers “sinkers”.
Change up, 83. Not a lot of speed differential. The pitch became much more useful in 2018 when he abandoned the circle grip and went to a split finger grip that gave him tremendous cut and dive. This is a 33% usage pitch.
Slider, 79. It’s tantalizingly slow, and it gives LHH fits with it’s 12-6 movement. While it is classified as a fly ball pitch, most of those are harmless pop-ups.
Manaea relies on soft contact, which is neither fly ball nor ground ball centric. While he allows a fairly high percentage of line line drives, batter have “only” averaged .556 on them in his career, which is low for line drives. Batters must rely on hitting mistakes because of the movement on his pitches.
It’s pretty basic, 4SFB and change ups to RHH with a rare back door slider to break the routine a bit. The few lefties that are allowed to face him see the 4SFB and that nasty slider most of the time...
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Post by inger on Sept 1, 2019 23:18:58 GMT -5
9/2/19 vs. Texas Rangers / Mike Minor 11-8; 3.25
Has Mike Minor improved this season? He’s had a 3.25 ERA in the past (2013), bit the league ERA was much lower in the NL that season. There may be a bit more to the story than ERA is revealing, as Minor’s FIP is 3.96.
The 6’ 4”; 210 pound 31 year old was sporting an ERA of 2.52 in mid-June when he was rumored to be on the trade block, and possibly to the Yankees. Since then, his ERA has been 4.02, which is more in line with expectations. He’s had 6 quality starts in the span, and 7 starts that fall short of being quality starts.
On the season he’s had even splits that are typical to his career, as well as typical low hard hit percentages. He tends to fade in the 5th or sixth innings, but when he’s dominating he can go deep into games while retaining his effectiveness.
The repertoire:
4S, 93. Gets some sink, is a good strikeout pitch. It has a high spin rate that is atypical to most sinking FB. Perhaps why the sink is limited. 45% usage.
Circle change, 86. Thrown 25% of the time with strong arm side fade and some fly ball tendencies.
Slider. 87. Short cut for a slider. 19% of mix.
Knuckle curve, 81. Sharp bite and is Minors best GB weapon. Can get K’s as well.
Minor has been on and off since the early part of June. When he has it all together, he’s a tough customer with a good strikeout rate that pitches through seven innings. When he’s off, very beatable. Which one will we see? Perhaps there is a clue in that while Minor has relatively even home/road splits, 16 of the 22 HR he’s allowed this season have been on the road. Yankee Stadium is not kind to pitchers HR ratios...
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Post by noetsi on Sept 2, 2019 8:31:44 GMT -5
The solution for pitchers we will face is obvious. Express an interest in trading for them in which case their ERA will soar.
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Post by inger on Sept 2, 2019 12:18:45 GMT -5
That has worked very well this season for some odd reason...
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Post by noetsi on Sept 2, 2019 18:18:23 GMT -5
Minor the best pitcher the Yankees faced this year  |
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Post by pippsheadache on Sept 2, 2019 19:22:19 GMT -5
Minor the best pitcher the Yankees faced this year He's a good pitcher, but not the best one the Yankees have faced this year. After all, they've faced Verlander, Cole, Kershaw and Ryu, among others. It would be more accurate to say he pitched the best game against the Yankees. |
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Post by inger on Sept 2, 2019 19:35:14 GMT -5
Minor the best pitcher the Yankees faced this year He's a good pitcher, but not the best one the Yankees have faced this year. After all, they've faced Verlander, Cole, Kershaw and Ryu, among others. It would be more accurate to say he pitched the best game against the Yankees. Although we can’t beat ANY of those guys in the post season... 🤪 |
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Post by inger on Sept 4, 2019 13:25:58 GMT -5
12/4/19 vs. Texas Rangers / Lance Lynn 14-9; 3.77
Big-bodied 6’5”. 280 pound 32 year old right hander has won at least ten games in each of his seven full MLB seasons. He stumbled in NY last season, but a few tweaks have turned him back into a star pitcher who delivers a lot of consistent performances and eats innings.
He’s changed arm slots, which in turn has greatly improved movement on his cutter. He’s made adjustments on his pitch mix, and will adjust by opponent and what he has working best in warm ups. He leads the AL in batters faced pitching, going at least 100 pitches into his starts for the past 19 consecutive starts, and 26/28 total this season. He’s pitched 7 or more innings 13 times in 2019, and has thrown 120 pitches in a game twice. In todays’ environment that certainly says “workhorse” all over it.
He’s been 9-1 at home and 5-8 on the road despite splits that day he’s equal to pitching anywhere. Right handlers often get a day off against Lynn, who is holding them to a split of .218/.267/.368. Batters attacking the first pitch do not fare well at .205/.240/.306. He has already eclipsed 200 Ks for this season.
His 3.77 ERA is a bit deceptive. His FIP is 3.00. Until very recently he had not allowed an unearned run this season, which is a bit unusual, and probably more a product of official scorers than reality.
He starts games off at times with a bit of a command/control issue, but once he settles in those problems go away and he has some of the best control in MLB. Home runs tend to be allowed early and late in games. In mid game he has completely stopped the long ball game this season. He stays strong throughout his starts, albeit with those early and late HRs allowed at times.
Watch for downward movement on his pitches, as there will be plenty of that. Despite the downward movement, his mistakes get hit in the air, and he has a slight fly ball tendency. He challenges hitters.
4S fast ball, 95. Swing and miss pitch with a bit of sink. 45-60% of mix.
Sinker, 93. Heavy sink, ground balls and more whiffs than most sinkers. 15-20% of mix.
Cutter, 89. Extra heavy sink and a strong cut for weak contact. 10-20%. Has been using more, reducing use of true sinker.
Curve, 81. 10% usage, 12-6 with swing and miss. Sometimes elevated.
Change up is only used 2% of the time.Has only a bit of sink and is a fly ball pitch.
Lynn probably won’t get as much attention in this year’s Cy Young voting as he deserves. He’s continued to pitch well since his once 12-4 record has nose-dived due to a recent 2-5 stretch that featured a couple of rare stinkers, but has been solid overall during that stretch. He’s going to be tough, and the only way he’s departing early is if we can get his pitch count up to 110 or so. It does sometimes happen, in fact it has in a few of his recent starts. I’m wondering if the innings are adding up a bit for him this year...
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Post by kaybli on Sept 4, 2019 14:40:03 GMT -5
Our old friend Lance Lynn! Let's knock him around!
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Post by inger on Sept 4, 2019 14:51:14 GMT -5
Our old friend Lance Lynn! Let's knock him around! I’m not knocking him around unless CC and Judge go out there with me... |
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Post by rizzuto on Sept 4, 2019 15:41:38 GMT -5
12/4/19 vs. Texas Rangers / Lance Lynn 14-9; 3.77 Big-bodied 6’5”. 280 pound 32 year old right hander has won at least ten games in each of his seven full MLB seasons. He stumbled in NY last season, but a few tweaks have turned him back into a star pitcher who delivers a lot of consistent performances and eats innings. He’s changed arm slots, which in turn has greatly improved movement on his cutter. He’s made adjustments on his pitch mix, and will adjust by opponent and what he has working best in warm ups. He leads the AL in batters faced pitching, going at least 100 pitches into his starts for the past 19 consecutive starts, and 26/28 total this season. He’s pitched 7 or more innings 13 times in 2019, and has thrown 120 pitches in a game twice. In todays’ environment that certainly says “workhorse” all over it. He’s been 9-1 at home and 5-8 on the road despite splits that day he’s equal to pitching anywhere. Right handlers often get a day off against Lynn, who is holding them to a split of .218/.267/.368. Batters attacking the first pitch do not fare well at .205/.240/.306. He has already eclipsed 200 Ks for this season. His 3.77 ERA is a bit deceptive. His FIP is 3.00. Until very recently he had not allowed an unearned run this season, which is a bit unusual, and probably more a product of official scorers than reality. He starts games off at times with a bit of a command/control issue, but once he settles in those problems go away and he has some of the best control in MLB. Home runs tend to be allowed early and late in games. In mid game he has completely stopped the long ball game this season. He stays strong throughout his starts, albeit with those early and late HRs allowed at times. Watch for downward movement on his pitches, as there will be plenty of that. Despite the downward movement, his mistakes get hit in the air, and he has a slight fly ball tendency. He challenges hitters. 4S fast ball, 95. Swing and miss pitch with a bit of sink. 45-60% of mix. Sinker, 93. Heavy sink, ground balls and more whiffs than most sinkers. 15-20% of mix. Cutter, 89. Extra heavy sink and a strong cut for weak contact. 10-20%. Has been using more, reducing use of true sinker. Curve, 81. 10% usage, 12-6 with swing and miss. Sometimes elevated. Change up is only used 2% of the time.Has only a bit of sink and is a fly ball pitch. Lynn probably won’t get as much attention in this year’s Cy Young voting as he deserves. He’s continued to pitch well since his once 12-4 record has nose-dived due to a recent 2-5 stretch that featured a couple of rare stinkers, but has been solid overall during that stretch. He’s going to be tough, and the only way he’s departing early is if we can get his pitch count up to 110 or so. It does sometimes happen, in fact it has in a few of his recent starts. I’m wondering if the innings are adding up a bit for him this year... Nice job, Inger! |
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