Minor League & Prospects Thread

Tom Kosensky's Saturday farm report. The Martian and Spencer Jones each has two hits, recent draftees Brendan Jones and Joe Delossantos are off to good starts and Gabriel Barbosa K's 7 in 4.2 innings.

tomkosensky.com/2024/08/17/yankees-milb-8-17-jasson-dominguez-2-hits-sb/

With Jones, the whole game is now whether he can improve his hit tool/K zone control enough to cut down on his strikeouts signifcantly. He hasn't done it yet. His K rates by month this season...

April: 27.3%
May: 38.5%
June: 36.3%
July: 40.1%
August: 37.7%

For the season: 36.9%
It was 28.9% last year, and in limited playing time in AA, it was 28.2%.
Jones is already 23 and hasn't had so much as an at bat in AAA. He's often compared to Judge, but Judge's age 23 season was half in AA and half in AAA, and his K rate in AA was 25% and in AAA was 28.5%. Huge difference. Which is how Judge survived in the majors and then thrived after making the adjustment after his first rough month in the majors in 2016. His K rate that month was over 44%, and he was outclassed in 2016, showing obvious tremendous power but batting .179 with an OPS just over .600.

Judge's growth as a hitter almost overnight in 2017 was beyond explosive, and extremely rare, especially at age 25. It's not uncommon for very young prospects to struggle for a time in the majors, Mickey Mantle went through that when he made the Yankees out of spring training as a 19-year-old who spent 1950 in class C-ball in 1951. But not nearly as bad as Judge struggled. In fact, it's amazing that Judge became one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball the very next season without any warning, and even more amazing that he has gone on in the last nearly 3 seasons to develop even further one of the best hitters in baseball as well, in his early 30's. Very rare for a hitter's peak seasons to be in his early 30's rather than his mid-to-late 20's. Very few cases like that in baseball, unless the hitter used PEDs, as Barry Bonds did. Most Hall of Fame hitters are in the majors, at least for a bit, by the time they're 22. Judge now has a Hall of Fame case that becomes viable when he plays his 1st game next season, which will be his 10th in the majors, the minimum requirement for election to the Hall.

It looks like Jones won't make the majors until late next year at the earliest, and possibly not until his age-25 season. He's well behind Judge at this point, and Judge was a late developer. Jones' minor league career is getting way too close to that of Estevan Florial's, another great athlete with every tool in the tool chest except one. No two prospects are alike, and Jones and Florial aren't the same either. Florial's raw power was excellent, but 60, not 70 as with Jones,and Florial had 70 speed, not 50/55 like Jones has.

But one thing never changes with batting prospects: the indispensible hit tool. Florial didn't have one, has never developed one, and his career, such as it is, is nearly over. In the minors, Judge's hit tool was questioned and questionable; I think his last minor league report at Fangraphs had it as a 40/45/50: 40 right now, 45 when he gets called up and 50 peak. Well, it's obvious he's more like a 55-60 hit tool now despite his still somewhat high K rate. (24% vs. MLB average 22.4%). I have to emphasize; Judge's growth in the hit tool is quite rare, especially for an extreme-power lower-contact type hitter. Whether Jones can improve his is dubious...he should've improved this year and didn't; he got worse. Bad sign, long-term.

As a rough but not universally applicable rule, a prospect with a K rate between 25-30% in AAA will have one of somewhere between 30-35% when called up to the majors. A hitter like Jones, whose K rate in AA is between 35-40% in AA can be expected to have a K rate of 40% or higher in the majors, and as Joey Gallo just proved in the last 2-3 years, you can survive and even be productive in the majors with a K rate of 30-35%, but not elite. Once you hit 40%, you're done as a major league hitter. After being traded to the Yanks mid-season 2021, Gallo's K rate has been 41.7% in the 3 1/2 seasons since; it was 36.7% in his years with the Rangers. An extreme power hitter who draws a lot of walks can be somwhat productive hitting .210-.230 at the extreme end of the K rate spectrum (35% or a bit higher); once you lose another 5% of your PA to K's and only K's, you're done as a hitter; dropping below .200 and unable to get to your power often enough to matter. Pitchers will just make you chase, so the BB rate eventually drops as well (17% his last 4 seasons with Texas, a little over 12% since he was traded away).

As always, the hit tool is the most important tool for batter prospects. If you have a good/great one, major league jobs are always available to you, at DH, if nothing else. If the team you're on can't find one for you, you're easily tradeable to a team that has a job available (see Michael Busch, formerly of the Dodgers, now the starting firstbaseman of the Cubs. His last pre-season prospect report at Fangraphs is revealing. Fielding tool: 20...at 3rd and 2nd, the positions he played in 2023. Game Power: 50/60. Hit tool: 50/55. 2024 K rate: 30.1%. OPS: 801. Defense at 1st, minus 1 to 4 runs, depending which advanced metric you use. fWAR this season, 2.4. bWAR this season: 3.1. That's a solid starter in the majors.)

The hit tool is the most important tool. Spencer Jones needs to improve his if he wants to have a big league career of any significant value. Soon. He's 24 next year, and the clock is ticking.

Ooooo what did he send you if you don't mind sharing?

The Sunday farm report from Tom Kosensky. Caleb Durbin has two hits and two walks, Brendan Jones continues his hot start, Duncan Pastore gets on base 5 times in his professional debut and Kyle Carr throws five shutout innings.

tomkosensky.com/2024/08/18/yankees-milb-8-18-kyle-carr-continues-to-roll/

I wonder if there's time to give Brendan Jones a look at Hudson Valley?  He's a college bat so it would make sense.  

I’m making a special, large batch of blue Kool—Aide for all of us to drink if we don’t win #28 this year. If we do win, I’ll just pour it on my dandelions…