Rule 5 draft

The Yankees have had 13 players picked in the last five Rule 5 Drafts (no other team has had more than eight players picked) because the farm system is deep in power arms and those guys are always popular in the Rule 5 Draft. Teams are typically looking for a reliever or a platoon bat in the Rule 5 Draft. They’re not expecting the next big star.

Four of those 13 players stuck all year: Rony Garcia (Tigers), Trevor Stephan (Cleveland), Luis Torrens (Padres), and Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox). Whitlock is the only one the Yankees miss, and he slipped through the cracks because of Tommy John surgery and the lost pandemic season. It is what it is. Learn from your mistakes and move on.

The Yankees got a head start on their Rule 5 Draft protection at the trade deadline. They traded six prospects who must be added to the 40-man this offseason: Diego Castillo, Ezequiel Duran, Janson Junk, Glenn Otto, Hoy Jun Park, and Elvis Peguero. There’s no way to keep everyone, so pick and choose your favorites, and trade the others while you can.

Cabrera, Pereira, and Vasquez

Shortstop Oswaldo Cabrera, outfielder Everson Pereira, and righty Randy Vasquez all enjoyed breakout 2021 seasons, so much so that I wrote about each of them individually in August. Here are their end-of-season stat lines:

Cabrera: .272/.330/.533 (130 wRC+), 29 HR, 21 SB, 24.7 K%, 8.0 BB% in 514 PA
Pereira: .303/.398/.686 (178 wRC+), 20 HR, 27.6 K%, 12.7 BB% in 221 PA
Vasquez: 2.52 ERA (2.97 FIP), 28.6 K%, 8.4 BB%, 56.5 GB% in 107.1 IP

Cabrera spent most of the year with Double-A Somerset (he hit five homers in nine games during a late season cameo with Triple-A Scranton). Pereira started in Extended Spring Training, then climbed from the Florida Complex League to Low-A Tampa to High-A Somerset. Vasquez went from Low-A to High-A to Double-A. All three were statistically incredible.

The Yankees had several middle infielders come out of the lost pandemic season with increased power. Some were traded (Castillo and Park), some remain in the system as top prospects (Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe), and then there’s Cabrera. He hit 29 homers in 118 games this year after hitting 22 homers in the first 410 games of his career.

Cabrera turns 23 in March and he’s been on the prospect radar for some time, though it wasn’t until this year that the tools turned into results. He’s a switch-hitter with power and knowledge of the strike zone, and his defense is good (though not amazing). Trading Castillo and Park while keeping Cabrera is a pretty good indication who the Yankees like most out of that group.

After the season he just had, there’s no chance Cabrera will go unselected in the Rule 5 Draft again. Someone will take a shot on him. There’s no such thing as too much middle infield depth and this is a skill set worth keeping. Cabrera needs to spend more time in Triple-A, though he can be an up-and-down guy in 2022, and perhaps the full-time utility infielder as soon as 2023.

Pereira has been around awhile is still somehow only 20 (he turns 21 in April) and he’s had some of the best tools in the system for years. He’s just been derailed by injuries (including a fluke ankle injury caused by the crappy wall padding in Staten Island) and the pandemic. The strikeouts are high, but the exit velocities are top notch, and Pereira has long been billed as a high baseball IQ guy.

The Yankees have handcuffed themselves a bit in recent years by carrying prospects who aren’t MLB ready on the 40-man roster. Pereira would be more of the same. He played only 27 games in High-A this year, and will likely return there to begin 2022. Best case scenario is Pereira gets to Triple-A late next season and is an MLB option sometime in 2023, likely in the second half.

Pereira’s upside is considerable. He’s also not particularly close to helping the big league team, and his greatest value to the Yankees may be as a trade chip. He was rumored to be involved in early iterations of the Joey Gallo trade, which means other teams want him and/or the Yankees want to move him rather than commit a 40-man spot to him.

Teams are willing to let a Rule 5 Draft kid sit through a disaster season (see: Torres and the Padres) to get that talent in the system. That’s the most likely way the Yankees can lose Pereira in the Rule 5 Draft. He’s not MLB ready and the jump from High-A to MLB is massive. Normally I would say leave him unprotected because he’ll be returned eventually. These days though? Eh.

As for Vasquez, there are parallels to Jonathan Loaisiga here as an largely unheralded kid who missed a bunch of time (Vasquez because of the pandemic and Loaisiga because of injuries) and came back throwing absolute fire. Velocity, spin, the works. Vasquez made only four Double-A starts and his control isn’t MLB ready, but he might be able to out-stuff MLB hitters next year the way Luis Gil did this year.

There seems to be one or two of these big stuff/questionable control guys on the 40-man at all times, and they get cycled through frequently. This could be a “okay, we tried Nick Nelson for two years, time to try the next guy” situation. Loaisiga was a surprise 40-man addition a few years ago because he hadn’t pitched much. Vasquez’s addition won’t be nearly as surprising.

Verdict: Protect all three, though I suspect the Yankees will shop Pereira around a bit prior to the protection deadline. Maybe Vasquez too. He was also rumored to be in early iterations of the Gallo trade. Either there’s interest in him or the Yankees want to move him, or both.

It wasn’t only middle infielders who returned with more power following the lost pandemic season. Longtime organizational catcher Donny Sands did as well. The 25-year-old converted third baseman hit .261/.326/.466 (112 wRC+) with 18 home runs in 380 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A. He hit eight (!) home runs in his first 1,073 career plate appearances.

Sands combined those 18 homers with a 15.0% strikeout rate and gosh, that much power with that much contact is exciting, especially at catcher. He’s a bat-first catcher whose defense is fine more than good, but the Yankees have long been willing to sacrifice defense for offense behind the plate. This goes back to the days of Jorge Posada and Mike Stanley.

As I wrote a few weeks ago, Sands is not only Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason, he’s due to become a minor league free agent. Either the Yankees put him on the 40-man roster following the World Series, or he heads out into the market, where some team will give him a 40-man spot because he’s a catcher with power, and because the position is so weak right now.

Put Sands on the 40-man and, at minimum, he’s the up-and-down third catcher during his three minor league option years. And if things go well, he can take over as the backup catcher in three years, when Kyle Higashioka becomes a free agent. That’s exactly what happened with Austin Romine and Higashioka. Romine became a free agent and Higashioka seamlessly stepped in to replace him right as he ran out of options.

Catching is so bad these days and Sands showed so much improvement this year -- again, the guy hit 18 homers in 380 plate appearances at the upper levels with a 15.0% strikeout rate -- that the Yankees have to put him on the 40-man, even though he’s not going to win any Gold Gloves. If anything, keep him and trade him. Can’t just let him go as a free agent.

What about Breaux, bro?

If you’d have told me before the season Sands would be the must-protect catcher and not Josh Breaux, I would have said … okay, that’s not completely crazy. It’s unexpected but it’s not the most insane thing either. Breaux lived up to his all-power profile this year, hitting .249/.298/.503 (108 wRC+) with 23 homers in 382 plate appearances between High-A and Double-A.

The power is legit, the plate discipline isn’t good (25.9% strikeouts and 6.8% walks this season), and the defense is rough around the edges but slowly improving (Breaux has a cannon arm but it plays down because of his transfer). Had he shown more improvement with his approach or defense, then we could discuss Beaux as a 40-man roster candidate. As it is right now, nah.

The Ridings situation

At this time last year I didn’t even know Stephen Ridings existed, then come August he was in the Bronx throwing 100 mph. Ridings was with the Yankees as a COVID replacement, so they were able to remove him from the 40-man roster without going through the usual process. Ridings allowed one earned run and struck out seven in five MLB innings.

First things first: Ridings is Rule 5 Draft eligible. He was a 2016 draft pick and he would’ve been Rule 5 Draft eligible last offseason had he been under contract with a team and not working as a substitute chemistry teacher at the time. Secondly, Ridings will be a minor league free agent this winter. The rules are complicated but he qualifies despite not having put in the necessary years.

MLB Rule 9 covers free agent eligibility and, long story short, a minor leaguer who gets released can become a free agent every offseason the rest of his career if he’s not on the 40-man roster. The Royals released Ridings last November, so he qualifies. The Cub Reporter put Rule 9 in something closer to plain English than the rulebook (emphasis mine):

An unsigned minor league player is automatically declared a free-agent at 5 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day after the final game of the World Series (the deadline is October 15th if the World Series is canceled) if the player has spent all or any part of at least seven separate seasons on a minor league roster (including all or parts of any season spent on Optional Assignment to the minors and/or on a minor league Injured List) and/or if the player has been previously released or non-tendered in his career and his present contract (known as a "second contract" even if it's his third or fourth minor league contract) has expired.

Ridings is on his “second contract” and thus can become a free agent, meaning if the Yankees don’t put him on the 40-man roster within five days of the end of the World Series, he can go out into free agency and shop his services to the other 29 teams. We didn’t see Ridings much this year, but we saw enough to know at least one of those 29 teams will give him a 40-man spot.

In the minors this season Ridings struck out 42 and walked only four in 29 innings. He finished the season on the injured list with an elbow problem, but as far as I know, it was fairly minor and he was throwing bullpen sessions in September. Prior to 2021, Ridings was a dime a dozen hard-thrower with an okay slider and poor control. Now the control took a massive step forward.

My guess is had we not seen Ridings throw those five innings with the Yankees, we wouldn’t think twice about him as a 40-man roster candidate. He would have been like all the other relievers with impressive minor league numbers. Oh wow he touches 100 mph? Big deal, a ton of guys touch 100 mph nowadays. You no longer stand out if you throw hard.

We did see those five big league innings though, and gosh, they were impressive. Ridings is a 6-foot-8 behemoth with big velocity and swagger, and even if he’s the up-and-down 14th guy on a 13-man pitching staff, it’s good to have an arm like that in reserve. Minor league free agency beckons, so the Yankees have to make a decision with Ridings fairly soon.

Sauer a long shot

2017 second rounder Matt Sauer returned from Tommy John surgery this year (he would have returned last summer had the minor league season not been canceled) and wasn’t particularly good, pitching to a 4.69 ERA (4.59 FIP) with 25.9% strikeouts and 9.6% walks in 111.1 innings split between Low-A Tampa and High-A Hudson Valley. Meh.

The good news: Sauer stayed healthy. Made just about every start. The bad news: Sauer’s stuff was kinda blah. During his Low-A stint he threw roughly 85% four-seamers and sliders and:

Four-seamer: 93.2 mph and 2,229 rpm average (96.1 and 2,459 max)
Slider: 85.3 mph and 2,548 rpm average (91.0 and 2,879 max)

The slider spin is pretty good, especially compared to the rest of Low-A. The rest doesn’t really stand out though. 93-96 mph fastball with average spin and a mid-80s slider? Once upon a time that made you a closer. Now you’re an up-and-down arm. Sauer turns only 23 in January and it’s worth giving him another year as a starter as he gets further away from elbow reconstruction. A 40-man spot though? Nah.


One thing became clear this season: I really underestimated how much players would be able to improve on their own at home last year. “On their own” isn’t entirely correct because they were in regular contact with the team, but it turns out you can accomplish a lot working remotely in this game. Hitters came back with more power and pitchers came back with more velocity.

Righty Ron Marinaccio, a 19th round pick in 2017, was an easy to overlook organizational arm earlier in his career, then he showed up to Spring Training this year throwing 95-97 mph rather than 90-91 mph. He’s always had a good changeup, and the Yankees had him throw it more often this year. 343 pitchers threw at least 60 innings at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021:

Strikeout rate
1. Reid Detmers, Angels: 42.0%
2. Jovani Moran, Twins: 41.8%
3. Ron Marinaccio, Yankees: 39.9%
4. Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles: 39.0%
5. Shane Baz, Rays: 37.9%

Swinging strike rate
1. Ron Marinaccio, Yankees: 20.6%
2. Jovani Moran, Twins: 20.2%
3. Spencer Strider, Braves: 20.0%
4. Reid Detmers, Angels: 18.4%
5. Dietrich Enns, Rays: 17.9% (y’all remember him, right?)

Marinaccio is 26 already and he’s a reliever only, but still, strike out that many hitters and miss that many bats, and teams will notice. Gio Gallegos was a similar “not a lot of prospect hype but insane Triple-A bat-missing numbers” guy, and he’s turned into a pretty good big league reliever. Marinaccio is absolutely on the Rule 5 Draft radar (GIF via Joe Vasile).

JP Sears was my Minor League Comeback Player of the Year and he used last season to a) get healthy, and b) sharpen his slider. He is on those same leaderboards as Marinaccio, albeit in the 20-30 range rather than top five. The Yankees have mostly used Sears as a starter in his career, though all signs (health, stuff, etc.) point to a future in the bullpen, and that’s fine. Relievers are people too.

The Yankees lose a few of these power arm relievers in the Rule 5 Draft each year and they’ve really only gotten burned twice: Whitlock in 2021 and Tommy Kahnle in 2013. Otherwise these guys usually come back (like Nick Green and Jose Mesa Jr.) or are lost and no one really cares (like Stephan and Garcia). That’s the case with most Rule 5 Draft picks.

40-man spots are a finite resource and inevitably the Yankees will have to leave a few relievers exposed. You can’t keep everyone, so the onus is on you to protect the right players, and let other teams have the leftovers. This year, it seems to me Marinaccio and Sears are the most likely candidates to be left exposed and then selected.

Verdict: Do not protect. The Yankees churn out power relievers like crazy and these days you need to do something more than throw in the mid-90s and have a good secondary pitch to stand out. You need fastball movement like Clay Holmes and Jonathan Loaisiga, or changeup depth like Wandy Peralta, etc. Marinaccio and Sears are behind a few others on the depth chart and have the best chance to get picked among Yankees minor leaguers, but sometimes the best way to keep a player is to leave him exposed, then take him back when he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster. The 40-man appears too tight to protect these two.

OF Anthony Garcia, my preseason No. 30 prospect, had an amazing year, hitting .306/.444/.678 (187 wRC+) with 14 homers in only 39 games split between the Florida Complex League and Low-A Tampa. He also hit a ball 115.8 mph, the second highest max exit velocity tracked in Low-A this year. That said, Garcia had a 32.6% strikeout rate and has 68 plate appearances in full season ball. As noted earlier, teams are willing to let an obviously not MLB ready kid sit through a disaster season to acquire his rights (again, see: Torrens and the Padres), and that’s about the only way Garcia is sticking in the big leagues next year. He’ll be left exposed … OF Trey Amburgey spent some time with the Yankees as a COVID replacement and is a textbook righty platoon corner outfield bat. He hit .276/.337/.475 (113 wRC+) in Triple-A this year with five homers in his first nine games and three homers in his final 62 games. Amburgey is up for minor league free agency and the Yankees won’t add him to the 40-man. He’s best served going to a team with a clearer path to MLB playing time. Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo are two pretty enormous roadblocks … OF Brandon Lockridge has been on the radar a while but doesn’t do enough to profile as anything more than a speed and defense fourth or fifth outfielder. He hit .298/.352/.495 (128 wRC+) in 75 games between High-A and Double-A this season. Lockridge could be a trade candidate prior to the protection deadline. Another team could want him but not with the Rule 5 Draft strings attached, so trade a fringe non-40-man prospect to get him, put him on the 40-man, and stash him in the minors. That kinda thing … RHP Greg Weissert picked up a new slider on Twitter last year and the result was 40 strikeouts but also 22 walks in 36.2 Triple-A innings. RHP Barrett Loseke struck out 91 and walked 31 in 65.2 innings between High-A and Double-A this year. Neither guy will show up on a prospects list but could get Rule 5ed if a team is willing to give them a look as the last guy in the bullpen … RHP Daniel Bies came into the season as a sleeper prospect, then blew out his elbow in Spring Training and had his second career Tommy John surgery. He won’t be added to the 40-man and no team is taking him in the Rule 5 Draft.
Wrapping up

I expect five minor leaguers to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason: Cabrera, Pereira, Sands, Ridings, and Vasquez. Ridings and Sands will be minor league free agents and have to be added to the roster soon after the World Series. The other three are regular old Rule 5 Draft eligibles and don’t have to be added to the 40-man until the protection deadline in a few weeks.

The Yankees currently have 47 players on the 40-man roster and they only need to get down to 38 after the World Series. That won’t be too difficult. Opening the other three spots can wait until the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline in late November but will require a little more work. Expect a flurry of minor roster cleanup moves the next 3-4 weeks. The Rule 5 Draft necessitates it.