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Post by noetsi on Mar 14, 2022 20:09:08 GMT -5
He batted .169 last year. I optimistically suggested he would be .200
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Post by rizzuto on Mar 14, 2022 20:17:30 GMT -5
He batted .169 last year. I optimistically suggested he would be .200 Wow, you are turning into quite the Pollyanna, Russ!  |
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Post by inger on Mar 14, 2022 20:19:41 GMT -5
He batted .169 last year. I optimistically suggested he would be .200 Small sample for an inexperienced young man. Again, this is a straw man you built. You gave him a .200 average with 20 HR. He probably won’t get enough at bats to hit 20 HR. But you’re inventing him as the starting C… |
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Post by rizzuto on Mar 14, 2022 20:21:22 GMT -5
Not many athletes can acquire arms like that and remain flexible enough to gun down baserunners. I shall wait to see him behind the plate and hope he can throw rather than shot-put the ball to second base. |
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Post by noetsi on Mar 14, 2022 20:26:30 GMT -5
He batted .169 last year. I optimistically suggested he would be .200 Small sample for an inexperienced young man. Again, this is a straw man you built. You gave him a .200 average with 20 HR. He probably won’t get enough at bats to hit 20 HR. But you’re inventing him as the starting TV.., The point of small sample, it is what I do for a living statistics, is that making optimistic projections are based on nothing. When you have white noise, last years numbers are the most reasonable guess you can make. |
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Post by noetsi on Mar 14, 2022 20:27:07 GMT -5
Not many athletes can acquire arms like that and remain flexible enough to gun down baserunners. I shall wait to see him behind the plate and hope he can throw rather than shot-put the ball to second base. Nick Fury |
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Post by inger on Mar 14, 2022 20:33:03 GMT -5
Not many athletes can acquire arms like that and remain flexible enough to gun down baserunners. I shall wait to see him behind the plate and hope he can throw rather than shot-put the ball to second base. Nick Fury Macho Man… The closest catcher comp I would make is Lance Parrish. He was excellent, but only lasted a few years due to his overly muscled physique… So I get it… |
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Post by noetsi on Mar 14, 2022 20:41:50 GMT -5
Macho Man… The closest catcher comp I would make is Lance Parrish. He was excellent, but only lasted a few years due to his overly muscled physique… So I get it… I think the real point is that prospects are unknowable, but usually don't succeed. Andujar is a classic example. How many elite major leaguers came up through the Yankee farm system in the last decade? Judge (he started in another one of course). Those aren't great odds. |
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Post by rizzuto on Mar 14, 2022 20:58:37 GMT -5
Macho Man… The closest catcher comp I would make is Lance Parrish. He was excellent, but only lasted a few years due to his overly muscled physique… So I get it… I think the real point is that prospects are unknowable, but usually don't succeed. Andujar is a classic example. How many elite major leaguers came up through the Yankee farm system in the last decade? Judge (he started in another one of course). Those aren't great odds. Judge started in another what? Decade or farm system? |
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Post by rizzuto on Mar 14, 2022 20:59:04 GMT -5
Not many athletes can acquire arms like that and remain flexible enough to gun down baserunners. I shall wait to see him behind the plate and hope he can throw rather than shot-put the ball to second base. Nick Fury Avengers Assemble! |
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Post by noetsi on Mar 14, 2022 21:01:48 GMT -5
I think the real point is that prospects are unknowable, but usually don't succeed. Andujar is a classic example. How many elite major leaguers came up through the Yankee farm system in the last decade? Judge (he started in another one of course). Those aren't great odds. Judge started in another what? Decade or farm system? Farm system I thought |
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Post by noetsi on Mar 14, 2022 21:02:48 GMT -5
Avengers Assemble!  How about Loki for GM? But I think he is with the Astros  |
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Post by inger on Mar 14, 2022 21:03:10 GMT -5
Macho Man… The closest catcher comp I would make is Lance Parrish. He was excellent, but only lasted a few years due to his overly muscled physique… So I get it… I think the real point is that prospects are unknowable, but usually don't succeed. Andujar is a classic example. How many elite major leaguers came up through the Yankee farm system in the last decade? Judge (he started in another one of course). Those aren't great odds. Judge is a purebred Yankee, my friend. Yes. Prospects are unknowable. Therefore, your creation of the straw man was foolish. Kind of what I said. Even veterans are unknowable. They just have better odds of turning out as expected… |
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Post by noetsi on Mar 14, 2022 21:06:07 GMT -5
I think the real point is that prospects are unknowable, but usually don't succeed. Andujar is a classic example. How many elite major leaguers came up through the Yankee farm system in the last decade? Judge (he started in another one of course). Those aren't great odds. Judge is a purebred Yankee, my friend. Yes. Prospects are unknowable. Therefore, your creation of the straw man was foolish. Kind of what I said. Even veterans are unknowable. They just have better odds of turning out as expected… Sorry I thought he was one of the guys Cashman brought from other farm systems at the end of the Arod era when we got rid of lots of older talent. If things are unknowable the last value is the one to go with. Aka a random walk. A basic argument in time series. If most Yankee prospects go nowhere that is the way to bet. |
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Post by rizzuto on Mar 14, 2022 21:07:09 GMT -5
Judge started in another what? Decade or farm system? Farm system I thought No, Aaron Judge was drafted out of Fresno State by the Yankees in the first round - number 32. He's a true Pinstriped Yankee. |
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