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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 13, 2024 22:38:29 GMT -5
Great write-up, qwik3457bb ! Very informative. Thank you! You read all of it already? Impressive.  |
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Post by kaybli on Oct 13, 2024 22:41:12 GMT -5
Great write-up, qwik3457bb ! Very informative. Thank you! You read all of it already? Impressive. I'm used to reading jwild's (an old verbose poster of ours) essays. That was a light read compared to jwild.  |
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Post by anthonyd46 on Oct 14, 2024 3:30:03 GMT -5
I think it's been 2-3-2 almost the entire history of MLB, World Series and onward. Really? Never noticed. Just feels being able to steal one of the first two, then getting three in a row at your place is a massive advantage. Didn't work for the Yankees in 2019.. |
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Post by anthonyd46 on Oct 14, 2024 3:30:55 GMT -5
.......................................................................................
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Post by anthonyd46 on Oct 14, 2024 3:42:33 GMT -5
The Guardians had their hands full with Detroit, while the Yankees took care of the Royals rather easily after Game 2. Like Qwik said the key to that series was that in the decisive game 5 Cleveland was able to mix and match their bullpen they used 8 relievers and their starter only went two innings.
It's key for the Yankees to get this series over with in as few games as possible so they dont get themselves int a similar situation. Though the Yankees bullpen is pretty good themselves, but look Judge and Soto need to be themselves. The Guardians don't have those players outside of Jose Ramirez and even then he's not on Judge's level.
They seemed to have their way against the Guardians all year except for the one blow out game. (They controlled the other loss the whole game mostly other than the end of the game.)
I agree this could be over in 5 if Rodon performs.
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Post by anthonyd46 on Oct 14, 2024 3:48:41 GMT -5
Judge also needs to improve on his numbers at progressive field:
.214/.361/.371/.732 2 HR 6 RBI in 20 games there. That's in his bottom tier of parks along with Boston and Houston.
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Post by 1955nyyfan on Oct 14, 2024 7:20:39 GMT -5
....................................................................................... Since Hedges is a career .187 hitter, I would guess all relief pitchers must look pretty good to him. |
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Post by 1955nyyfan on Oct 14, 2024 7:33:57 GMT -5
Part VII - Miscellaneous
As for other things: as with the Royals, Cleveland has the big edge in team speed; again, as with the Royals the Yanks can’t let the Guardians turn this series into a track meet, or it’s a loss. As before, in post-season play, if you get strong pitching and solid defense, team speed is not usually a significant factor. In the Division Series, the Royals stole just 2 bases and had one runner thrown out. Kansas City’s speed was mostly concentrated in 3 big base stealers: Witt, Garcia and Blanco on the bench. The Guardians have two excellent base stealers; Ramires (41) and Gimenez (30), but they also have 3 other lineup regulars with good speed who stole 10 bases or more: Thomas (14), Kwan (12) and Rocchio (10), so they can make base-stealing a threat in every game.
On defense, Cleveland has the better team Defensive Efficiency Rating, 2nd in the AL to the Yanks’, but the actual gap isn’t large .709 to .703. The Guardians have committed fewer errors, but the difference is minor, just 6 errors over 162 games. In the advanced metrics, the Royals are +84 in Defensive Runs Saved, the Yanks are +31, a big edge. Statcast Fielding Run Value disagrees, the Yanks are at +35, and the Guardians are at +31. This time Outs Above Average doesn’t differ with its related metric; the Yanks are +8 and the Guardians are +10. The Yanks are better at throwing out base stealers, +3 runs to the Guardians’ -2. One more advantage to Cleveland; they’ve turned 114 GIDP and the Yanks have turned 93. The Yanks big edge in framing runs is gone for this series, the Yankee catchers are still 2nd in all of MLB in Runs Saved by framing pitches: +20.1, but the Bo Naylor/Austin Hedges combo is 3rd at +16.1. Putting all that together, Fangraphs says the Guardians are the 8th best defensive team in MLB at +16.8 runs, while the Yanks are 10th best at +14.1.
As for the managers, Boone was surprisingly NOT a factor in the ALDS, mostly thanks to the dominant performance of Kahnle, Holmes and Weaver. This is Vogt’s first postseason; he has a good reputation, and handled his bullpen brilliantly all the way along, but with so many top relief options, it’s not easy to screw that up. This series will test Vogt anew. Thanks for the writeups Qwik. Will take a small exception to Boone not being a factor. I suspect you meant it as a positive i.e he didn't screw anything up but I think he was a factor. We all discussed he had some choices for LF, 1B and 3rd SP. I think he made the right choices and while we don't know what the other guys might have done the guys who played were solid. None of us even considered Berti for 1b and he did a nice job and while he doesn't hit for power he is a professional hitter. I also think he managed the pen well. I know there is a lot of dislike for Boone on the board but I think he had a good series. Anyway, a lot of good stuff in your work. I'm off to Carmel through Thursday so probably will miss at least 2 games. Go Yanks! |
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Post by kaybli on Oct 14, 2024 9:17:28 GMT -5
Part VII - Miscellaneous
As for other things: as with the Royals, Cleveland has the big edge in team speed; again, as with the Royals the Yanks can’t let the Guardians turn this series into a track meet, or it’s a loss. As before, in post-season play, if you get strong pitching and solid defense, team speed is not usually a significant factor. In the Division Series, the Royals stole just 2 bases and had one runner thrown out. Kansas City’s speed was mostly concentrated in 3 big base stealers: Witt, Garcia and Blanco on the bench. The Guardians have two excellent base stealers; Ramires (41) and Gimenez (30), but they also have 3 other lineup regulars with good speed who stole 10 bases or more: Thomas (14), Kwan (12) and Rocchio (10), so they can make base-stealing a threat in every game.
On defense, Cleveland has the better team Defensive Efficiency Rating, 2nd in the AL to the Yanks’, but the actual gap isn’t large .709 to .703. The Guardians have committed fewer errors, but the difference is minor, just 6 errors over 162 games. In the advanced metrics, the Royals are +84 in Defensive Runs Saved, the Yanks are +31, a big edge. Statcast Fielding Run Value disagrees, the Yanks are at +35, and the Guardians are at +31. This time Outs Above Average doesn’t differ with its related metric; the Yanks are +8 and the Guardians are +10. The Yanks are better at throwing out base stealers, +3 runs to the Guardians’ -2. One more advantage to Cleveland; they’ve turned 114 GIDP and the Yanks have turned 93. The Yanks big edge in framing runs is gone for this series, the Yankee catchers are still 2nd in all of MLB in Runs Saved by framing pitches: +20.1, but the Bo Naylor/Austin Hedges combo is 3rd at +16.1. Putting all that together, Fangraphs says the Guardians are the 8th best defensive team in MLB at +16.8 runs, while the Yanks are 10th best at +14.1.
As for the managers, Boone was surprisingly NOT a factor in the ALDS, mostly thanks to the dominant performance of Kahnle, Holmes and Weaver. This is Vogt’s first postseason; he has a good reputation, and handled his bullpen brilliantly all the way along, but with so many top relief options, it’s not easy to screw that up. This series will test Vogt anew. Thanks for the writeups Qwik. Will take a small exception to Boone not being a factor. I suspect you meant it as a positive i.e he didn't screw anything up but I think he was a factor. We all discussed he had some choices for LF, 1B and 3rd SP. I think he made the right choices and while we don't know what the other guys might have done the guys who played were solid. None of us even considered Berti for 1b and he did a nice job and while he doesn't hit for power he is a professional hitter. I also think he managed the pen well. I know there is a lot of dislike for Boone on the board but I think he had a good series. Anyway, a lot of good stuff in your work. I'm off to Carmel through Thursday so probably will miss at least 2 games. Go Yanks! Have fun 1955nyyfan! We'll miss ya! |
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Post by rizzuto on Oct 14, 2024 12:06:34 GMT -5
Part VII - Miscellaneous
As for other things: as with the Royals, Cleveland has the big edge in team speed; again, as with the Royals the Yanks can’t let the Guardians turn this series into a track meet, or it’s a loss. As before, in post-season play, if you get strong pitching and solid defense, team speed is not usually a significant factor. In the Division Series, the Royals stole just 2 bases and had one runner thrown out. Kansas City’s speed was mostly concentrated in 3 big base stealers: Witt, Garcia and Blanco on the bench. The Guardians have two excellent base stealers; Ramires (41) and Gimenez (30), but they also have 3 other lineup regulars with good speed who stole 10 bases or more: Thomas (14), Kwan (12) and Rocchio (10), so they can make base-stealing a threat in every game.
On defense, Cleveland has the better team Defensive Efficiency Rating, 2nd in the AL to the Yanks’, but the actual gap isn’t large .709 to .703. The Guardians have committed fewer errors, but the difference is minor, just 6 errors over 162 games. In the advanced metrics, the Royals are +84 in Defensive Runs Saved, the Yanks are +31, a big edge. Statcast Fielding Run Value disagrees, the Yanks are at +35, and the Guardians are at +31. This time Outs Above Average doesn’t differ with its related metric; the Yanks are +8 and the Guardians are +10. The Yanks are better at throwing out base stealers, +3 runs to the Guardians’ -2. One more advantage to Cleveland; they’ve turned 114 GIDP and the Yanks have turned 93. The Yanks big edge in framing runs is gone for this series, the Yankee catchers are still 2nd in all of MLB in Runs Saved by framing pitches: +20.1, but the Bo Naylor/Austin Hedges combo is 3rd at +16.1. Putting all that together, Fangraphs says the Guardians are the 8th best defensive team in MLB at +16.8 runs, while the Yanks are 10th best at +14.1.
As for the managers, Boone was surprisingly NOT a factor in the ALDS, mostly thanks to the dominant performance of Kahnle, Holmes and Weaver. This is Vogt’s first postseason; he has a good reputation, and handled his bullpen brilliantly all the way along, but with so many top relief options, it’s not easy to screw that up. This series will test Vogt anew. Thanks for the writeups Qwik. Will take a small exception to Boone not being a factor. I suspect you meant it as a positive i.e he didn't screw anything up but I think he was a factor. We all discussed he had some choices for LF, 1B and 3rd SP. I think he made the right choices and while we don't know what the other guys might have done the guys who played were solid. None of us even considered Berti for 1b and he did a nice job and while he doesn't hit for power he is a professional hitter. I also think he managed the pen well. I know there is a lot of dislike for Boone on the board but I think he had a good series. Anyway, a lot of good stuff in your work. I'm off to Carmel through Thursday so probably will miss at least 2 games. Go Yanks! Tell Clint I said hello! |
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Post by cocopugg on Oct 14, 2024 12:29:18 GMT -5
....................................................................................... I've yet to see him break any bats. |
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Post by Max on Oct 14, 2024 13:37:50 GMT -5
Since Hedges is a career .187 hitter, I would guess all relief pitchers must look pretty good to him. |
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Post by Max on Oct 14, 2024 13:44:14 GMT -5
Not liking the 2-3-2 format for the ALCS. Prefer 2-2-1-1-1. That's way too much travel for baseball. Much better for the team with the best record. As you said that's too much travel for MLB. Can you imagine if the Mets and Dodgers went to 7 games with that playoff format?
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Post by inger on Oct 14, 2024 15:48:11 GMT -5
....................................................................................... Since Hedges is a career .187 hitter, I would guess all relief pitchers must look pretty good to him. On we thing about Mariano. He wasn’t the best reliever in the game every year. There were years someone had better seasons than him. Nobody ever was as consistent. Let Classe do what he did this year for 20 years. Do it into his forties. Then. Then we’ll talk… |
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Post by qimqam on Oct 14, 2024 15:52:27 GMT -5
....................................................................................... I've yet to see him break any bats. He's also a year removed from 12 Blown Saves ... Only 1 less than Holmes had this season Ohhhh and a 6.35 ERA in the last Division Series |
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