|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 13, 2024 21:17:51 GMT -5
Well, I'm sure you're all excited, because here is the overlong, overwrought Official qwik American League Championship Series Preview, in nine exhausting parts:
Part I - This year’s head-to-head in review:
The Yanks beat the Guardians 2 of 3 in Cleveland in April and 2 of 3 again in the Bronx 4 months later. The Yanks could have legitimately won all 6 games, and the main reason they lost 2 of the 6 is the reason the Guardians have a legit chance to win this series. The first series came with both teams off to a hot start: the Yanks came in 10-3, the Guardians 9-3. By the time the 2nd series rolled around in August, the Yanks and Guardians were still both in first; the Yanks by ½ game over the Orioles, the Guardians by 2 ½ over the Twins (remember them?).
The six games the Yanks played Cleveland this season went this way:
April 13th in Cleveland: the Friday game was rained out, so this was the first game of a Saturday double header. Yanks built a 3-0 lead on a DP grounder by Grisham and a two-run HR by Cabrera (Remember that couple of weeks early part of the season when Cabrera got a bunch of big hits and ‘carried’ the team, and everyone decided that he should be the regular 3rd baseman, and the heck with LeMahieu? Yeah, me neither.) The Indians got two back in the bottom of the inning on when Torres threw away the relay to first on a 4-4-3 DP attempt with the bases loaded and two runs scored. That finished off starter Clarke Schmidt’s day with 1 earned run in 5 innings. Caleb Ferguson finished off the 6th with no more damage, and Hamilton and Holmes shut Cleveland down the last 3 innings for the 3-2 win, Schmidt’s 1st of the season.
April 13th in Cleveland: the second game went much better than the first, as emergency call-up starter Cody Poteet stymied the Indians on six hits and 1run in 6 innings, giving up just a solo HR to Estevan Florial after the Yanks were already up by 8. The lineup jumped on Triston McKenzie on a RBI single by Rizzo and a bases loaded walk by Stanton, and knocked him out in the 4th with a RBI single by Volpe and a 3-run bomb by Soto. The Yanks added 2 more in the 5th to make it 8-0. Dennis Santana (2 innings) and Ron Marinaccio (1 inning with a solo HR by Josh Naylor) for a final score of 8-2
April 14th in Cleveland: going for the sweep, Judge hit a 3-run HR in the 3rd, Jose Ramirez struck back for a 2-run HR in the bottom of the inning, and the Yanks got one of those two back on a solo shot by Jose Trevino. The Indians tied it with two in the 5th on a leadoff HR by Arias, and when Nestor Cortes hit Kwan with 1 out, his day was done. Josh Naylor singled with 1 out to tie it up, going to the 6th. Florial gave Cleveland the lead with his 2nd solo HR of the series (he’d hit just one more before being sent back to AAA), but the Yanks tied it off top closer Clase when Volpe doubled to right center with 2 outs in the 9th, scoring Cabrera. In the 10th, the Yanks got a huge two run single from Rizzo, but Ferguson started to pitch his way off the Yankees by coming in for the save, and giving up a single, a 6-4 force scoring the ghost-runner, and double moving the tying run to 3rd, a single scoring that tying run and getting the winning run to 3rd, and a walk-off sac fly by Andres Gimenez, avoiding the sweep for Cleveland, 8-7.
August 20th at the Stadium: neither starter was effective, both Boyd and Gil giving up 3 runs in the first 4 innings. Gil was knocked out after 3 1/3, having walked 6 and giving up a HR to Rocchio. Boyd lasted into the 6th, but after giving up a one-out walk, he was pulled, and the game became what the Guardians hope for every day; a battle of the bullpens. The Indians relievers threw 5 2/3 shutout innings through the 11th, but the Yankee pen was actually a smidge better; they gave up no runs for 8 innings in relief of Gil. Boone finally ran out of quality relievers, going to Mayza in the 12th, and after a double to score the ghost-runner, he gave up a single, got a groundout, and was taken out for Tonkin, and in the game that basically finished Tonkin as a Yankee, he gave up a RBI single to Ramirez, a walk, a two-run triple by Fry, and a RBI single by Noel, and the Yanks were buried, 9-3. Judge hit a 2-run double in the bottom, but too little, too late, Guardians took their 2nd straight from the Yanks 9-5.
August 21st at the Stadium: after a 1-2-3 by Cortes in the 1st, the Yanks quickly set about dismantling the Guardians’ rookie starter Cantillo. Torres singled and Soto smacked a 2-run HR in the 1st. In the 3rd, Soto walked and Judge nailed him for another 2-run shot. In the 4th, the Yanks loaded the bases with 2 outs and Soto hit a 3-run double, getting thrown out trying to get to 3rd on the throw home. In the 7th, Judge hit his 2nd HR of the game, a solo HR to make it 8-0, and Noel’s solo HR in the 8th off Mayza made the final, 8-1 Yanks. Nestor went 7 shutout innings for the 2nd start in a row for his 7th win of the season.
August 22nd at the Stadium: the season’s series ended with another one-sided win for the Yanks, this one a 6-0 shutout. Gerrit Cole didn’t have his best command, walking 5 and striking out just 2, but allowed just 1 hit and no runs in 6 innings and got the win. The offense didn’t get going until the 4th, when Judge hit his 48th HR and 3rd in 2 games to make it 1-0, and they blew it open in the 5th, scoring 4 on a sac fly by Wells and 3-run blast by Stanton. Ben Rice added a sac fly in the 8th for the final run.
As mentioned above, the Yanks won 4 of the 6 games, and outscored Cleveland 37-22, winning 3 blowouts and losing none, although really, the Indians blew open the first game at the Stadium with 6 in the 10th, and only Judge’s garbage time 2-run double made the score respectable.
|
|
|
|
Post by Rockaway Park on Oct 13, 2024 21:28:13 GMT -5
Not liking the 2-3-2 format for the ALCS. Prefer 2-2-1-1-1.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 13, 2024 21:33:08 GMT -5
The “Prediction System”
The James Prediction System went just 2-2 in the Division Round, getting the 2 AL series right but blowing it on the 2 NL Series. I’ll apply it again here for the Championship Series, using the somewhat altered criteria:
1. Give 12 pts to the team that scored more runs during the season (yes, this time…more). The Yanks lead the AL in runs, so they get the 12 points; 12-0, Yanks.
2. Give 4 pts to the team with fewer doubles. The Guardians beat the Yanks in doubles this year, 245 to 243, so 4 points to the Yanks; 16-0, NY.
3. Give 12 pts to the team with fewer triples, and again, the Guardians beat the Yanks, 18-15 (being slow and unathletic still works!), 12 pts to the Yanks; 28-0, NY.
4. Give 13 pts to the team with more home runs, and the Yanks lead all of MLB with 237, so 13 more pts to the Yanks; 41-0, NY.
5. Give 14 pts to the team with the higher batting average, and believe it or not, the Yanks won this one, too, .248 to .238; 55-0, NY.
6. Give 10 pts to the team with the higher OBA, and that’s the Yanks; 65-0, NY.
7. Give 10 pts to the team with the higher slugging percentage, and that’s the Yanks again, 75-0, NY.
8. Give 9 pts to the team that turned fewer double plays. I don’t know if this means total team double plays, but it doesn’t matter, the Guardians won total DP, 130 to 112 and GIDP turned, 114 to 94, so 9 more points for the Yanks; 84-0, NY.
9. Give 10 pts to the team whose pitches struck out fewer hitters, and that’s the Guardians, 47 fewer K’s by pitchers, so Cleveland gets on the board; 84-10, NY.
10. Give 6 pts to the team that allowed fewer walks, and again, that’s the Guardians, 41 fewer walks. 6 pts to Cleveland, 84-16, NY.
11. Give 10 pts to the team with the lower pitching staff ERA, and that’s again Cleveland 3.61 to 3.74. 10 pts to the Guardians, but it’s still 84-26, NY
12. Give 14 pts to the team with the better record on the season, and by 1 skinny game, that’s the Yanks, which is why they have home field. Final score: 98-26, Yanks. The oddsmakers have the Yanks as roughly 8 1/2 - 10 favorites, which again is disquieting.
If you’re curious about the NLCS, it’s the Dodgers 108-16 over the Mets. I’m not sure I’d bet that way, although the Dodgers are certainly making their case behind Flaherty in game 1. The betting line is currently running the Dodgers as roughly a 7 ½ - 9 favorite.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 13, 2024 21:33:52 GMT -5
Not liking the 2-3-2 format for the ALCS. Prefer 2-2-1-1-1. I think it's been 2-3-2 almost the entire history of MLB, World Series and onward. |
|
|
|
Post by chiyankee on Oct 13, 2024 21:35:35 GMT -5
Not liking the 2-3-2 format for the ALCS. Prefer 2-2-1-1-1. That's way too much travel for baseball. |
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 13, 2024 21:36:34 GMT -5
Part III – The Guardians’ pitching and what the Yanks have to do
The Yanks have the starting pitcher advantage here, but I’m not sure how big or whether it matters. Bibee is Cleveland’s top starter, and he gave up just 2 runs in 8 2/3 innings in game 1 and 0 in 4 in game 5 in the ALDS vs. the Tigers. In fact, the Cleveland starters gave up just 4 earned runs in the series, but pitched just 18 1/3 innings in the 5 games. Manager Vogt went to his deep and talented relief corps in game after game, and it worked, for the most part; 9 ER in 26 2/3 innings. But the bullpen wasn’t invincible, Clase gave up the big 3-run HR to Meadows in the 9th that won game 2 for the Tigers, and the bullpen gave up 2 in 4 1/3 in game 4, and the middle relievers gave up 3 in 2 1/3 innings in game 5. The remaining Cleveland starters are inexperienced/old: Boyd, who started game 2 and 5, didn’t give up a run, but pitched just 4 2/3 in game 2, and just two innings in game 5. Cobb was ineffective in his 3-inning start in game 3; he'll start game 1 vs. the Yanks. Rookie lefty Cantillo was one of the long men on the roster for the ALDS, and the other was hard-throwing righty Gavin Williams.
I’m assuming the game 4 starter for Cleveland will be Ben Lively back on the roster for the ALCS. Lively, who had a GOOD season at 13-10, 3.81 ERA in 29 starts, struggled a bit down the stretch, going 2-2 in his last 6 starts with an ERA over 4.50, going exactly 5 innings just twice, and under that in the other 4, and was left off the roster for the ALDS. In he’s not activated, then it’ll be either Cantillo or Williams. Although a lefty, the Yanks roughed Cantillo up in his one game in the Stadium whereas Williams showed off elite stuff against the Yanks before he lost command in the 5th inning and the Yanks knocked him out of the game. Cantillo pitched much better in his last 4 starts, although 7 innings of that was shutout ball vs. the historically bad White Sox. Except for one early knockout against the Dodgers, Williams pitched well in his 6 starts after the Yankees game with an ERA under 3.00 in those 5 other starts. It might be that the Guardians will think Williams is their best chance, let him throw 98 mph fastballs for 2-3 innings, then go to their pen.
As for the other question: how much do their starters matter? Not as much as they should; the Cleveland pen is arguably the best and deepest in MLB, although the Dodgers also have a decent argument. In any critical situation, I expect Vogt to choose from among Clase, Gaddis, Smith, Herrin, or Morgan to get them through whatever crises they find themselves in, early, middle or late in games. The Yanks’ best option of frustrating this strategy is to get solid starting pitching of their own, and hit some big 2- or 3-run HRs before Vogt can get a struggling pitcher out of there.
Some detail on their elite reliever corps: Clase or the Cards’ Ryan Helsey was the best closer in MLB this year. Gaddis had a brilliant season of very heavy usage: 1.57 ERA, 78 games (2nd in the AL) and 74 2/3 innings, just 4 HR allowed. Cade Smith might be the best reliever they have, 1.91 ERA in 74 games and 75 1/3 innings, 103 K’s, 17 BB, just 1 HR and 1 run in 6 2/3 innings in the Division Series, just 2 hits, 1 BB and 12 K’s. Their only true lefty reliever is Tim Herrin, and he was outstanding this year as well: 1.92 ERA, 75 games, 65 2/3 innings, just 2 HR allowed. Eli Morgan pitched 42 innings in 32 games to a 1.93 ERA, giving up just 30 hits and 11 BB. Their pen is so deep and versatile they benched two pitches who could be assets in the Yankees pen: Nick Sandlin, who Vogt called “The Pacifier” for his ability to end rallies in the middle innings. Sandlin had a 3.75 ERA in 68 games and 57 2/3 innings, but gave up an unsightly 12 HR, and Pedro Avila has 5 pitches, pitched 50 games and 74 innings to 3.25 ERA. The Yanks have a decent top of the pen, but the back of their pen; Hill, Cousins, Hamilton, Mayza and I would guess Stroman as the long man, just doesn’t match that consistent quality. Cousins, Hamilton and Hill can be terrific at times, but they’re more erratic.
There’s just one caveat here: the Yanks have had some success against closer Clase in recent years: from 2022 through this season, he’s pitched 8 games against, them, saving 4, but he’s also blown 3 saves and taken two losses, one in a game he came into in something other than a save situation, so he’s been 50-50 against the Yanks since 2022. In 8 games over the three seasons: 8 innings, 8 hits, 5 runs, 4 earned, with 4 BB and just 6 K. If they can hang even one blown save/loss against him in this series, that would change the equilibrium of the series substantially.
The game plan here has to be to get their starters out early in as many games as they can, and hope to wear the Cleveland pen down, especially in games 4, 5 and 7, which have no days off before. If the Yanks let the Guardians’ starters go 5-6 innings in most of the games, this season is very likely to end before the World Series. Again.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 13, 2024 21:40:58 GMT -5
Part IV - The Guardians hitting and what the Yankee pitching needs to do
Cleveland has just one hitter who the Yanks have not faced, top prospect first baseman/DH Kyle Manzardo. He hit well at AAA for power, but was unexceptional in BAVG (.268) and had solid command of the K zone. In the majors, he still hit for solid power (ISO of .187), but his K-zone command suffered (41/7 K/BB ratio in 156 PA), and his BAVG with it (.234). He adds a left-handed power bat to their bench, but might get a start against Schmidt or Gil in this series.
Otherwise, the Guardians have a solid, but not great offense: 7th in the AL in runs, 7th in OPS, 7th in adjusted OPS, 7th in HR, 12th in BB, and 2nd in stolen bases. They traded for Lane Thomas at the break to fill the hole in center field caused by Tyler Freeman’s offensive game falling apart. Thomas had an enormous Division Series, bookending with a huge 3-run HR in the 1st off Reese Olson that broke open game 1, and the monstrous knockout blow grand slam off Tarik Skubal that crushed the Tigers in the 5th inning of game 5. Thomas hit very poorly after coming over from the Nationals in the trade at the deadline, but he's come through in a big way in the playoffs so far, giving the Yanks another player they have to worry about stopping. They also have David Fry, the backup catcher and DH, Josh Naylor, who’s hit big home runs against the Yanks, Andres Gimenez, the Guardians 2nd baseman and general pain in the butt. Finally, there’s also Steven Kwan, the pain the neck who’s tough to K, and combines a good batting average, a good walk rate, moderate power and a solid stolen base game into one of the better leadoff hitters in MLB.
The biggest threat by far in the Indians lineup is perennial MVP candidate and future probable Hall of Famer Jose Ramirez (.279-39-118 with 114 runs scored this season); he’s likely to be top 5 in the AL MVP voting, which would be the 6th time he’s been in the top 6 of the vote in the last 8 seasons, and will put in the top 40 all-time in MVP shares despite never actually winning one. He owned the Yanks his first 8 years in the majors: 44 games, 161 AB, 36 runs, 63 hits, 8 doubles, 3 triples and 11 home runs, 31 RBI, with 17 BB and 25 SB, and his quadruple slash line against New York through 2021 was .391/.442/.683/1.125. It seemed to Yankee fans that a series against the Indians wasn’t complete until Ramirez killed them in at least 1 game. Since then, the Yanks have held him down, 2-18 with 2 BB and 7 K, and 0 RBI in 5 games in 2022, 7-23 with 2 doubles and 1 RBI with 3 BB and 0 K in 2023, and 3-23 with a HR and 3 RBI, 4 BB and 6 K this year. Ramirez has played three playoff series against the Yanks in his career. In the 2017 ALDS, he had a terrible series, going 2-20 with 0 RBI, 7 K and 2 BB, and the Indians lost 3 games to 2. In the 2020 Wild Card series, Ramirez was 3-7 in the two games with 3 doubles and 4 RBI, 2 BB and 1 K, but the Indians still lost 2-0. In the 2022 ALCS, Ramirez again had a good series, going 8-20 with 2 doubles and 2 RBI, 1 BB and 4 K, and the Yanks again won, 3 games to 2. In sum, Ramirez hasn’t done badly in the post-season against the Yanks, but hasn’t yet had a series you’d expect an elite hitter to have against them in three tries.
Considering his so-so performance in the three playoff series against the Yanks in combination, and his poor performance against them the last three regular seasons, it’s hard not to think that Ramirez is overdue for a big series against the Yanks, and if that happens, the Guardians will be much, much harder to beat. The other Guardians hitters (Rocchio, Brennan, Noel, Bo Naylor) can chip in with a key hit, but they’re no more likely to do so than the Yankees’ lesser hitters, perhaps less so. Needless to say, any effective pitching game plan against Cleveland will require that they contain Ramirez without letting the other serious threats in their lineup, especially Naylor, Fry and Thomas, have a major breakout series. If they can do both those things, they give their own lineup an excellent chance to do enough damage against the Guardians’ mediocre starting pitching to keep the Cleveland bullpen from controlling the series.
|
|
|
|
Post by Rockaway Park on Oct 13, 2024 21:43:57 GMT -5
Not liking the 2-3-2 format for the ALCS. Prefer 2-2-1-1-1. I think it's been 2-3-2 almost the entire history of MLB, World Series and onward. Really? Never noticed. Just feels being able to steal one of the first two, then getting three in a row at your place is a massive advantage. |
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 13, 2024 21:46:45 GMT -5
I think it's been 2-3-2 almost the entire history of MLB, World Series and onward. Really? Never noticed. Just feels being able to steal one of the first two, then getting three in a row at your place is a massive advantage. Sometimes it works that way, sometimes it doesn't. In 2019, the road team won all seven games. In the NBA and NHL, the playoffs worked that way for almost all their history: 2-2-1-1-1. They changed it in the NBA for a few years in the 90's. When the Knicks lost to the Akeem Olajuwon Rockets in the Finals, that series was 2-3-2. |
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 13, 2024 21:48:43 GMT -5
Part V- The Yankees’ hitting and what they should try to do
In playoffs, it occasionally happens that a weak starting staff can get hot and pitch out of their minds for three or four weeks, long enough to win a title. One fairly recent example of this is the 2006 Cardinals whose rotation had one excellent starter in Chris Carpenter, and the rest were mediocre-to-terrible in the regular season: Jeff Suppan (12-7, 4.12), Jeff Weaver (5-4, 5.18), Anthony Reyes (5-8, 5.06), and Jason Marquis (14-16, 6.02) but they put it together in the playoffs well enough to win it all, even beating the Tigers (that had knocked off the Yanks in the Division round) in the World Series by a 4-1 margin. This rarely works for teams in the playoffs with mediocre rotations. As I pointed out in the section about the Guardians pitching above, the starters pitched well against the Tigers, but averaged just 3 2/3 innings per start. In the regular season, Cleveland was 12th in the AL in starting pitcher ERA at 4.40 and 13th in inning pitched by starter at 805, just under 5 innings a start. Vogt leaned heavily on his elite pen throughout the season, and considerably more so in the series against Detroit.
But the Indians rotation right now is largely different than it was for most of the season. Among the pitchers they gave a substantial number of starts to who are not in the rotation right now are Triston McKenzie (16 starts, 3-5, 5.11 ERA), Carlos Carrasco (21 starts, 3-10, 5.64 ERA; both he and McKenzie were optioned to the minors, McKenzie in late June, Carrasco in late September. Logan Allen got 20 starts, but was 8-5 with an ERA of 5.73, and they sent him back to AAA in late August. Right now, the Guardians rotation looks like Bibee, who didn’t face the Yanks this year and had one solid start against them last year; lefty Matt Boyd, who had one OK start against the Yanks this year; Alex Cobb, who had a mostly excellent record against the Yanks through 2020 for the Rays and Orioles, but who has made just one 3 2/3 innings start against them in the last 4 years. He pitched well in that short start, but he’s not the same pitcher he was last decade and this Yankees lineup is different as well. And then, it’s Lively, Williams or Cantillo.
I focused on two Yankees heavily in my ALDS preview: Judge and Volpe, and I’ll make them the focus again, while adding a third: Chisholm. Judge hit better in games 3 and 4, not just the two hits, but also the strikeouts and walks. He had 4 K’s and 2 BB in games 1 and 2, and 1 K and 3 BB in games 3 and 4. Stanton being hot behind him makes a big difference; Judge can relax if he feels he doesn’t have to get it done every time up. He can’t go back to pressing at the Stadium; the first two and last two games are there. Volpe is again the wild card, and though the results didn’t show it, he hit MUCH better in the ALDS than he did late in the season: Just 3-12 with 1 run and 1 RBI, but just 1 K and 4 BB, and multiple line drives hit hard to right with no luck: Game 1: 101 mph flyout to the track in right in the 2nd inning, XBA .290. 97 mph lineout to right in the 4th, XBA .280. Game 2: 99 mph lineout to the track in right in the 4th, XBA .350. Game 4: 103 mph lineout to right in the 2nd off Wacha, XBA .460, 91 mph line drive to Gurriel for an unassisted DP, XBA .440. If he keeps that up, with a little better luck, he might be a big factor in the series. Once again, with some days off, Volpe looks much better at the plate; he’s had three days off before game 1, and gets a day off after game 2, and if the series gets that far, another off-day after game 5. Finally, Chisholm, who has a poor record in the post-season (3-26 with 7 K, 2 runs, 1 solo HR and 2 BB) and might be pressing. He made the mistake of the “Royals got lucky” comment, and turned himself into a target. In games 3 and 4, he had no real impact, going 0-7 with 1 BB and 1 K, leaving 6 runners on base, 4 of them in scoring position. As with Judge, the Yanks are going to need some contributions from Jazz. Not every game, not all of the time, but some of the time. Wells and Verdugo had their moments, Soto was Soto, Torres did just fine, and Stanton was a huge plus. I am wondering if Boone will just go with Berti at 1st, assuming Rizzo can’t make it back; his defense at 1st was superb, especially considering he’s never played there before.
Soto cancels out Ramirez, so Judge, Stanton, Torres, Chisholm and Volpe must outhit Josh Naylor, Fry, Kwan and Gimenez. The have the talent to do so, and should be able to get some things done against the Cleveland rotation. Their bullpen? We’ll see. The good news: the Guardians bullpen had a 5.46 ERA against the Yankees this year, the highest against any AL team. The bad news: that 5.46 wasn’t against their top relievers: 1 run in 3 innings against Clase, 0 in 2 1/3 innings against all three of Gaddis, Herrin and Smith, just 1 run in 3 innings vs. Morgan. Totals for all 5 vs. the Yanks this season: 11 appearances, 1-0, 13 innings, 9 hits, 2 runs (earned), 1 HR, 6 BB and 10 K’s. ERA of 1.38. WHIP of 1.154. It’s an over-obvious point, but the Yanks have to hit the Guardians starters hard in this series. The need some room for their starters to work with, as the Guardians lineup, while not elite, is deeper than the Royals lineup. Putting Cleveland multiple runs down in multiple games greatly decreases the significance of their bullpen advantage.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 13, 2024 21:55:11 GMT -5
Part VI - The Yankees pitchers against the Guardians:
If you look at the names in the lineups, it would seem that the Guardians have the better hitting team, but the year’s numbers don’t bear that out. The Royals hit for a better average, had more doubles, more triples; the two teams were next to each other in OBA, slugging and OPS (6th and 7th in the AL). The Royals are a running team, but the Guardians stole 14 more bases, but also got thrown out 15 more times. The Guardians hit 15 more HR, but also grounded into 20 more double plays. Both teams don’t strike out a lot; the Royals had the lowest team strikeouts, 35 fewer than the Guardians, who had the 3rd lowest. (The Yanks struck out 165 times more than the Royals, 130 more than Cleveland). So again, the Yankees starters should be able to hold down the opposing lineup. The Royals hit Cole hard in game 1, and Rodon in the 4th inning of game 2, but Schmidt was good until they caught up to him for two runs in the 5th in game 3, and Cole got hit hard, but still have up just 1 run in 7 innings in game 4. It didn’t look great, but the runs against the Yanks in the ALDS went like this: 5, 4, 2, and 1, and against the starters: 4, 4, 2, 1.
Cole threw 6 shutout innings against Cleveland in the August series at the Stadium for a win. Rodon hasn’t pitched against them in 2 years; before that, his record against the Guardians is excellent. Schmidt threw that solid game against them in April in Cleveland. Gil had zero command against them in his start against them in September, walking 6 in 3 innings (the fact that he was bad in his last two starts in the season and that it will be NINETEEN days since he last threw in a game doesn’t fill me with confidence, especially for his command). Overall, it appears that the Yanks’ starting pitching should be able to be competent against the Guardians lineup, getting 4-6 innings every game, but the post-season is perverse, momentum swings are sudden and wild, and Rodon’s command of himself and Gil’s command of his pitching slot make me nervous. It may force the Yanks into needing big innings from Cousins, Hill and Hamilton in multiple games. If that happens, the series is up for grabs.
As for the late inning guys, Kahnle, Weaver and yes, even Holmes were elite against KC, giving them nothing in 4 games: 11 appearances, 12 1/3 innings, 5 hits, 0 runs, 3 BB and 11 K. They should be good again, except maybe against Ramirez in a big spot. They’re going to have to be if the Yanks are to win this ALCS; the games of this series are going to come down to them, except the ones the Yanks trail in the late innings.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 13, 2024 21:58:12 GMT -5
Part VII - Miscellaneous
As for other things: as with the Royals, Cleveland has the big edge in team speed; again, as with the Royals the Yanks can’t let the Guardians turn this series into a track meet, or it’s a loss. As before, in post-season play, if you get strong pitching and solid defense, team speed is not usually a significant factor. In the Division Series, the Royals stole just 2 bases and had one runner thrown out. Kansas City’s speed was mostly concentrated in 3 big base stealers: Witt, Garcia and Blanco on the bench. The Guardians have two excellent base stealers; Ramires (41) and Gimenez (30), but they also have 3 other lineup regulars with good speed who stole 10 bases or more: Thomas (14), Kwan (12) and Rocchio (10), so they can make base-stealing a threat in every game.
On defense, Cleveland has the better team Defensive Efficiency Rating, 2nd in the AL to the Yanks’, but the actual gap isn’t large .709 to .703. The Guardians have committed fewer errors, but the difference is minor, just 6 errors over 162 games. In the advanced metrics, the Royals are +84 in Defensive Runs Saved, the Yanks are +31, a big edge. Statcast Fielding Run Value disagrees, the Yanks are at +35, and the Guardians are at +31. This time Outs Above Average doesn’t differ with its related metric; the Yanks are +8 and the Guardians are +10. The Yanks are better at throwing out base stealers, +3 runs to the Guardians’ -2. One more advantage to Cleveland; they’ve turned 114 GIDP and the Yanks have turned 93. The Yanks big edge in framing runs is gone for this series, the Yankee catchers are still 2nd in all of MLB in Runs Saved by framing pitches: +20.1, but the Bo Naylor/Austin Hedges combo is 3rd at +16.1. Putting all that together, Fangraphs says the Guardians are the 8th best defensive team in MLB at +16.8 runs, while the Yanks are 10th best at +14.1.
As for the managers, Boone was surprisingly NOT a factor in the ALDS, mostly thanks to the dominant performance of Kahnle, Holmes and Weaver. This is Vogt’s first postseason; he has a good reputation, and handled his bullpen brilliantly all the way along, but with so many top relief options, it’s not easy to screw that up. This series will test Vogt anew.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 13, 2024 22:01:59 GMT -5
Part VIII - Clutch hitting and clutch pitching; the hitting first:
With RISP, the two team are right next to each other in BAVG and OBS (.262 and .344 for the Yanks; .261 and .346 for Cleveland.) The Yanks have the advantage in power: 14 more HR, leading to a 39-pt advantage in slugging and a 37-pt advantage in OPS. The Yanks had 83 more PA with RISP and scored 60 more runs.
With RISP and two outs, the situation is the similar: the same BAVG, .230 for both, 5 pts lead for the Yanks in OBA, .334 to .329, but the power is surprisingly on Cleveland’s side: 1 more HR and 19 pts in slugging, giving them the edge in OPS by 15 pts. The Yanks had 56 more PA with 2 outs and RISP, but scored just 6 more runs.
In Late & Close, however, it’s the Yanks who have the edge: 9 pts in BAVG, 22 pts in OBA (maybe all those IBB for Judge?), and 29 pts in slugging for an OPS advantage of .709 to .658. The Yanks have just 1 more HR in Late & Close, but in 110 fewer PA in that situation, the Yanks have scored 16 more runs, despite the Guardians getting 10 of those in their two late rally wins against New York.
Cleveland has the BAVG edge in High Leverage situations, .256 to .249, but the Yanks get that back in walks, leading by 1 pt in OBA. The Guardians have hit two more homers than the Yanks in High Leverage and lead in slugging .422 to .414. The two teams are barely separated in PA and runs in this situation, the Guardians have 6 more PA, the Yanks have 1 more run.
On the pitching side:
The Yankees’ pitching is one of the best in the AL with RISP: 3rd lowest BAVG .237, 6th in OBA, .319, 3rd in slugging, .381, 3rd in OPS, .699. The problem is that the Guardians’ pitching is the best in the AL with RISP: lowest BAVG, .218, lowest OBA, .283, 2nd lowest slugging .378, and lowest OPS .671. The Yanks have allowed the fewest HR with RISP, 34, and Cleveland has allowed 41. Cleveland has allowed just 433 runs with RISP and the Yanks have allowed 471, but in 120 more PA in that situation.
With 2 outs and RISP, it’s .173/.263/.320/.583 for the Guardians, and they lead the AL in all four categories and it’s .205/.323/.302/.626 for the Yanks, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, and 2nd in the AL. The Yanks have allowed 12 HR in this situation, the Guardians 20. The Yanks lead the AL in fewest HR with RISP and 2 outs, and Cleveland is 5th. Cleveland has allowed 160 runs in that situation, the Yanks 179, but again, the Yanks’ pitchers have had 97 more PA facing it, so fewer runs per PA in that situation for the Yanks’ pitchers.
In Late & Close, it’s .204/.265/.311/.577 for the Guardians, and it’s not a bit surprising that their elite bullpen leads the AL in all 4 categories. For the Yanks, it’s .211 (3rd)/.296 (4th)/ .324 (3rd)/.619 (3rd). The Guardians allowed just 12 HR in Late & Close, again tops in the AL. The Yanks allowed 17, tied for 3rd best. Cleveland allowed just 76 runs in Late and Close lowest in the AL, the Yanks were 2nd best at 98, and the Yanks’ pitchers had 42 fewer PA in Late & Close, too.
In High Leverage, it’s .205/.275/.339/.614 for Cleveland, which is 1st, 1st, 2nd, and 1st. For the Yanks, it’s .218/.296/.328/.624, which is 2nd, 3rd, 1st, and 2nd. The Yanks have allowed 20 HR in high leverage, 2nd best in the AL; the Guardians have allowed 28, which is 4th in the league. The Yanks have allowed 225 in high leverage, lowest in the AL and Cleveland has allowed 244, 3rd best in the league, in 46 more PA.
The teams appear to be about even in hitting in clutch situations, and Yanks have good pitching in the clutch, but the Indians are the best in the league in pitching when the heat is on. The only exception is in HR, both on offense and in defense. The Yanks hit more HR in key spots, and allow fewer. It’s not a big edge, but it’s an edge.
In their division series, the Yanks hitters were 6-36 with RISP, and the pitchers allowed 6-22. Against the Tigers, the Guardians went 11-45 with RISP, their pitchers allowed just 5-36. In the regular season the clutch category was about even. In the playoff round, Cleveland was better than the Yanks, and not by a little. In the 6 head to head games, the Guardians were 9 for 46 and the Yanks were 13 for 62, but again, a lot of that was against pitchers no longer on the staff for the post-season: McKenzie, Allen, Sandlin, Barlow, and Beede.
|
|
|
|
Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 13, 2024 22:07:52 GMT -5
Part IX – Where does this all lead?
I think the Guardians, like the Royals have the edges in relief pitching, in team speed, in contact hitting, in defense on the field, and possibly an edge in managing. If they get reasonable starting pitching, they’ll be a very tough out. The Yanks have the edge in home field, power hitting, and starting pitching but the pitch framing edge they held against the Royals is neutralized. And so, we’re right back where we started: to a large extent this series comes down to: can the Yanks realize their edge in starting pitching, or will the Guardians edge in depth of relief pitching decide things, especially in the middle innings, especially if the Yankees starters falter? Teams like this have gone deep into the post-season. In 2016, both the Cubs and Guardians got through the Championship Series this way, but their pens were both exhausted by the end of the World Series. The Guardians' pen is still reasonably fresh; if the Yanks are to wear them down, it'll be late in this series.
Again, the Yanks are the older team, 2 years older per player than the Guardians, and again, they should be the more desperate team for that reason and because of the uncertainly about whether Soto stays or goes. The Guardians are even younger than the Royals, per man on the roster; the only man in the starting lineup older than 27 is Ramirez. Their rotation is on the older side, but the bullpen is young.
When the Yanks beat Cleveland in the Division Series two years ago, it took five games, but the Yanks won the last two. Both teams are different; if Rizzo can’t go, only 3 of the 9 guys in the Yankees lineup are still in the lineup, and with Cortes’ injury, only Cole remains in the rotation. Holmes is the only key reliever left. The Guardians still have 4 hitters in the lineup from that series; when Brennan starts, it’s 5. But none of their five starting pitchers from 2022 will throw in this series, and the bullpen is mostly different, with Clase and Morgan the only holdovers. Can the Guardians beat the Yanks? Yes, they can, especially if they can get to the Yanks’ weak middle relievers in 4 or 5 of the games. If Cleveland can make this a battle of the bullpens, I don’t think the Yanks relievers will be up to the task. In the alternative, the Guardians can also win if they get 4 or 5 good starts from their starters, going 4-6 effective innings.
It’s just my two cents, but I think if the Yanks can keep this from going 7, where the Guardians can put their whole pen to use in an all-hands-on-deck scenario that the Yanks can’t really match up with, if Cole can pitch well in both game 2 and game 6 and they win both, I think the Yanks win this and get to the World Series. Whether they can beat the Dodgers or Mets if they get there…I’m dubious. But the World Series comes later, if it comes at all. Now it’s the League Championship Series, an obstacle the Yanks haven’t been able to climb in 15 seasons.
As Sheehan says when he does these things, the last sentence in a playoff series preview is always the least important:
Yankees in six games, maybe five if Rodon can come through with a big game in either of his two starts.
|
|
|
|
Post by kaybli on Oct 13, 2024 22:35:38 GMT -5
Great write-up, qwik3457bb ! Very informative. Thank you! |
|
