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Post by jiminy on Nov 20, 2024 15:17:35 GMT -5
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Post by Max on Nov 20, 2024 15:50:07 GMT -5
For what it's worth I heard that the Yankees were "gung ho" after their meeting with Soto. Was Gung Ho posted this year?  |
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Post by Max on Nov 20, 2024 16:27:10 GMT -5
Cano becoming McCann, Beltran and Tanaka isn't a bad trade off. There were slim picking after Yamamoto signed. Not sure if the Yankees were in on Wagner.
Granted, none of the other free agents are better than Soto. But, because of injuries there are no sure things. The Yankees signing Burnes and either Santander or Alonso are just a couple of good plan B options. Guys like that eat up payroll and can prevent a team from spending on someone better in the following off-seasons. McCann and Beltran's production dropped off, but their price tags stayed high. They were not like the O'Neills and Tinos we added in the good years. Ellsbury became a heavy albatross contract and he was the "prize" of the bunch. Tanaka was fine but going 1-4 on expensive free agents isn't very good. Both Montgomery and Snell were still on the board (and others I can't remember now) when the Yankees settled for Stroman. When Snell gave in and took a short deal, we no longer had the money to get him. Now we have 18.5 million devoted to Stroman in 2025 and possibly 2026 if he reaches his innings incentive, and he's a guy that didn't merit throwing a single inning in the post season in a year where we reached the WS. None of the Plan B options are the sure thing that Soto is. None are 25 year old generational talents. They can and should sign some other players if they lose Soto and maybe it will work out, but pivoting to Plan B is not one of Cashman's strengths. I feel like he gets too desperate and signs guys in haste and in the process he overpays for non premium talent to make sure he got something. In my opinion, this free agent talent is a little better than the free agent talent the year the Yankees didn't sign Cano. Also, Ellsbury played well for the Red Sox, he played pretty well for the Yankees before he got hurt. Can't predict injuries. Hence, because of injuries there are no sure things.
From what I heard Snell and Monty turned down Cashman. Snell signed for 30 million, pitched well, but he did get hurt again. Monty signed for 25 million and had an ERA over 6.00. I think the Yankees will trade Stroman, but trade or not, I doubt Stroman is going to pitch 140 innings if he stays with the Yankees.
I agree, none of the Plan B options are the sure thing that Soto is, that's why I said earlier in the thread that there's no replacing Soto. But those players are good options.
ARod was Plan B after Boone got hurt, that worked out pretty well for the Yankees. Jazz was Plan B for DJ.
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Post by donniebaseball23 on Nov 20, 2024 17:47:56 GMT -5
Is there actually a market for Stroman given his age, contract, and how AWFUL he was in the second half? I guess maybe some team looking for a #4 or 5 might think they can get the Stroman of the first half back (or something in between), but that's a risk. He looked cooked after July.
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Post by ypaterson on Nov 20, 2024 17:48:08 GMT -5
Cano becoming McCann, Beltran and Tanaka isn't a bad trade off. There were slim picking after Yamamoto signed. Not sure if the Yankees were in on Wagner.
Granted, none of the other free agents are better than Soto. But, because of injuries there are no sure things. The Yankees signing Burnes and either Santander or Alonso are just a couple of good plan B options. Guys like that eat up payroll and can prevent a team from spending on someone better in the following off-seasons. McCann and Beltran's production dropped off, but their price tags stayed high. They were not like the O'Neills and Tinos we added in the good years. Ellsbury became a heavy albatross contract and he was the "prize" of the bunch. Tanaka was fine but going 1-4 on expensive free agents isn't very good. Both Montgomery and Snell were still on the board (and others I can't remember now) when the Yankees settled for Stroman. When Snell gave in and took a short deal, we no longer had the money to get him. Now we have 18.5 million devoted to Stroman in 2025 and possibly 2026 if he reaches his innings incentive, and he's a guy that didn't merit throwing a single inning in the post season in a year where we reached the WS. None of the Plan B options are the sure thing that Soto is. None are 25 year old generational talents. They can and should sign some other players if they lose Soto and maybe it will work out, but pivoting to Plan B is not one of Cashman's strengths. I feel like he gets too desperate and signs guys in haste and in the process he overpays for non premium talent to make sure he got something. The only sure thing that happens when a free agent signs a long term deal is that the signing team is on the hook for the money. Maybe Juan Soto is a generational talent. And maybe he will continue to improve. But maybe his career will look more like that of Vada Pinson, Carlos Baerga, Cesar Cedeno or Mike Trout. Just like there are late bloomers in MLB, there are guys who hit their prime before they celebrate their 27th birthday. Boras is going to get at least one or two opt outs of any deal that Soto signs. If Soto continues to perform, the deal he signs this year will be the floor for the next. And if he doesn't, he'll still get paid. |
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Post by ypaterson on Nov 20, 2024 17:58:08 GMT -5
Is there actually a market for Stroman given his age, contract, and how AWFUL he was in the second half? I guess maybe some team looking for a #4 or 5 might think they can get the Stroman of the first half back (or something in between), but that's a risk. He looked cooked after July. I don't see a bidding war developing. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 20, 2024 18:31:24 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by inger on Nov 20, 2024 18:31:24 GMT -5
Is there actually a market for Stroman given his age, contract, and how AWFUL he was in the second half? I guess maybe some team looking for a #4 or 5 might think they can get the Stroman of the first half back (or something in between), but that's a risk. He looked cooked after July. I don't see a bidding war developing. He begged Cashman for a job last year. He could be begging again… |
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stu
AA
Posts: 82
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Post by stu on Nov 20, 2024 19:10:37 GMT -5
Guys like that eat up payroll and can prevent a team from spending on someone better in the following off-seasons. McCann and Beltran's production dropped off, but their price tags stayed high. They were not like the O'Neills and Tinos we added in the good years. Ellsbury became a heavy albatross contract and he was the "prize" of the bunch. Tanaka was fine but going 1-4 on expensive free agents isn't very good. Both Montgomery and Snell were still on the board (and others I can't remember now) when the Yankees settled for Stroman. When Snell gave in and took a short deal, we no longer had the money to get him. Now we have 18.5 million devoted to Stroman in 2025 and possibly 2026 if he reaches his innings incentive, and he's a guy that didn't merit throwing a single inning in the post season in a year where we reached the WS. None of the Plan B options are the sure thing that Soto is. None are 25 year old generational talents. They can and should sign some other players if they lose Soto and maybe it will work out, but pivoting to Plan B is not one of Cashman's strengths. I feel like he gets too desperate and signs guys in haste and in the process he overpays for non premium talent to make sure he got something. The only sure thing that happens when a free agent signs a long term deal is that the signing team is on the hook for the money. Maybe Juan Soto is a generational talent. And maybe he will continue to improve. But maybe his career will look more like that of Vada Pinson, Carlos Baerga, Cesar Cedeno or Mike Trout. Just like there are late bloomers in MLB, there are guys who hit their prime before they celebrate their 27th birthday. Boras is going to get at least one or two opt outs of any deal that Soto signs. If Soto continues to perform, the deal he signs this year will be the floor for the next. And if he doesn't, he'll still get paid. The last hitter like this the Yankees passed on was Harper, and Soto is an even better hitter than he was. He's New York tested. He's been excellent in the post season. There is nothing else like him on the market. Anyone could drop off at any time, but he's the least likely to among all of the hitters they could sign. He's the only one capable of hitting at his elite level. And if there is any George in Hal, Soto is also the guy who will put the most fannies in the seats. He'll generate the most buzz and interest in the team. I know the risks but am still strongly on Team Keep Soto. |
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Post by bumper on Nov 21, 2024 9:30:25 GMT -5
first of all would "like" for us to sign soto but it comes with caveats and red flags. don't care how young a player is, these contracts never work out. hard pressed to remember one.
the poster child for this is albert pujols and yeah he was 5 yrs older than soto. but his drop off after signing the contract is dramatic. in his 11 years w the cards prior to the contract, he was top 5 in the mvp voting 10 of those years with one season where he finished 9th. with the angels the best he did was two 17th place finishes.
in those 11 cardinal years he had a
86.6 war w .328 ba 40 hr 121 rbi 1.037 ops. over the first 6 yrs of the angel's contract he had
12.6 war w .262 ba 28 hr 98 rbi .777 ops. not bad but nowhere near his cardinal production and he went down from there.
i'd be thrilled if we could sign him for 8-10 yrs. but that ain't happening. probably more like 12-15 yrs. question is do we go there. problem is while you might get 6 yrs of great production. are those great years worth the years he'd be a drag on the back end. see pujols, arod, trout, cano, stanton and others. again can't remember one that worked.
plan b - maybe you switch the focus to pitching. sign a co-ace like burnes, sasaki, or fried. get a closer to pair w weaver. for position change the focus to defense, contact and speed. it won't be the shock and awe we featured this season but perhaps it's overall a more balanced team.
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Post by yankeesfaninboston on Nov 21, 2024 9:41:22 GMT -5
first of all would "like" for us to sign soto but it comes with caveats and red flags. don't care how young a player is, these contracts never work out. hard pressed to remember one. the poster child for this is albert pujols and yeah he was 5 yrs older than soto. but his drop off after signing the contract is dramatic. in his 11 years w the cards prior to the contract, he was top 5 in the mvp voting 10 of those years with one season where he finished 9th. with the angels the best he did was two 17th place finishes. in those 11 cardinal years he had a 86.6 war w .328 ba 40 hr 121 rbi 1.037 ops. over the first 6 yrs of the angel's contract he had 12.6 war w .262 ba 28 hr 98 rbi .777 ops. not bad but nowhere near his cardinal production and he went down from there. i'd be thrilled if we could sign him for 8-10 yrs. but that ain't happening. probably more like 12-15 yrs. question is do we go there. problem is while you might get 6 yrs of great production. are those great years worth the years he'd be a drag on the back end. see pujols, arod, trout, cano, stanton and others. again can't remember one that worked. plan b - maybe you switch the focus to pitching. sign a co-ace like burnes, sasaki, or fried. get a closer to pair w weaver. for position change the focus to defense, contact and speed. it won't be the shock and awe we featured this season but perhaps it's overall a more balanced team. Longer contracts are definitely risky, but the same think applies to the pitchers you're signing too. You mention the first 6 years of Pujols' Angels contract and how he fell off and how that could happen with Soto even though he's younger... wouldn't that be MORE likely to apply to the Pitchers you suggest like Burnes or Fried considering they're actually the same age Pujols was. Sasaki is a different story because he's so young, but he also won't cost much money to sign with the posting rules. So signing him really isn't tied to what they do or don't spend on Soto and isn't particularly relevant to the decision of paying him or splitting between multiple players. |
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Post by bumper on Nov 21, 2024 10:10:11 GMT -5
first of all would "like" for us to sign soto but it comes with caveats and red flags. don't care how young a player is, these contracts never work out. hard pressed to remember one. the poster child for this is albert pujols and yeah he was 5 yrs older than soto. but his drop off after signing the contract is dramatic. in his 11 years w the cards prior to the contract, he was top 5 in the mvp voting 10 of those years with one season where he finished 9th. with the angels the best he did was two 17th place finishes. in those 11 cardinal years he had a 86.6 war w .328 ba 40 hr 121 rbi 1.037 ops. over the first 6 yrs of the angel's contract he had 12.6 war w .262 ba 28 hr 98 rbi .777 ops. not bad but nowhere near his cardinal production and he went down from there. i'd be thrilled if we could sign him for 8-10 yrs. but that ain't happening. probably more like 12-15 yrs. question is do we go there. problem is while you might get 6 yrs of great production. are those great years worth the years he'd be a drag on the back end. see pujols, arod, trout, cano, stanton and others. again can't remember one that worked. plan b - maybe you switch the focus to pitching. sign a co-ace like burnes, sasaki, or fried. get a closer to pair w weaver. for position change the focus to defense, contact and speed. it won't be the shock and awe we featured this season but perhaps it's overall a more balanced team. Longer contracts are definitely risky, but the same think applies to the pitchers you're signing too. You mention the first 6 years of Pujols' Angels contract and how he fell off and how that could happen with Soto even though he's younger... wouldn't that be MORE likely to apply to the Pitchers you suggest like Burnes or Fried considering they're actually the same age Pujols was. Sasaki is a different story because he's so young, but he also won't cost much money to sign with the posting rules. So signing him really isn't tied to what they do or don't spend on Soto and isn't particularly relevant to the decision of paying him or splitting between multiple players. indeed pitching has it's risks though i think they age better or are more willing and able to make adjustments than hitters. and maybe burnes & fried are not the right choices but nonetheless switching from trying to bludgeon our opponents to a more fundamentally based and rounded team might be the better course for success. especially when putting all our eggs in the former basket hasn't worked because it leaves too many holes.
again would love for us to sign soto but my cutoff is around 10 years (which is probably too long). when it gets to 12-15 years, just think that's too much to carry on the back end. and then you have cohen saying he'll outbid by $50 mil. is there a point where you say enough is enough. will wait and see where hal's limit is.
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Post by ypaterson on Nov 21, 2024 10:18:05 GMT -5
first of all would "like" for us to sign soto but it comes with caveats and red flags. don't care how young a player is, these contracts never work out. hard pressed to remember one. the poster child for this is albert pujols and yeah he was 5 yrs older than soto. but his drop off after signing the contract is dramatic. in his 11 years w the cards prior to the contract, he was top 5 in the mvp voting 10 of those years with one season where he finished 9th. with the angels the best he did was two 17th place finishes. in those 11 cardinal years he had a 86.6 war w .328 ba 40 hr 121 rbi 1.037 ops. over the first 6 yrs of the angel's contract he had 12.6 war w .262 ba 28 hr 98 rbi .777 ops. not bad but nowhere near his cardinal production and he went down from there. i'd be thrilled if we could sign him for 8-10 yrs. but that ain't happening. probably more like 12-15 yrs. question is do we go there. problem is while you might get 6 yrs of great production. are those great years worth the years he'd be a drag on the back end. see pujols, arod, trout, cano, stanton and others. again can't remember one that worked. plan b - maybe you switch the focus to pitching. sign a co-ace like burnes, sasaki, or fried. get a closer to pair w weaver. for position change the focus to defense, contact and speed. it won't be the shock and awe we featured this season but perhaps it's overall a more balanced team. When Cashman made the the deal for Stanton he was 2 years older than Soto is now and a better fielder. Despite his postseason heroics, very few fans look back on that deal fondly. And yet many of the same people want Cashman to give Soto an even longer and richer deal now. |
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Post by yankeesfaninboston on Nov 21, 2024 10:53:54 GMT -5
first of all would "like" for us to sign soto but it comes with caveats and red flags. don't care how young a player is, these contracts never work out. hard pressed to remember one. the poster child for this is albert pujols and yeah he was 5 yrs older than soto. but his drop off after signing the contract is dramatic. in his 11 years w the cards prior to the contract, he was top 5 in the mvp voting 10 of those years with one season where he finished 9th. with the angels the best he did was two 17th place finishes. in those 11 cardinal years he had a 86.6 war w .328 ba 40 hr 121 rbi 1.037 ops. over the first 6 yrs of the angel's contract he had 12.6 war w .262 ba 28 hr 98 rbi .777 ops. not bad but nowhere near his cardinal production and he went down from there. i'd be thrilled if we could sign him for 8-10 yrs. but that ain't happening. probably more like 12-15 yrs. question is do we go there. problem is while you might get 6 yrs of great production. are those great years worth the years he'd be a drag on the back end. see pujols, arod, trout, cano, stanton and others. again can't remember one that worked. plan b - maybe you switch the focus to pitching. sign a co-ace like burnes, sasaki, or fried. get a closer to pair w weaver. for position change the focus to defense, contact and speed. it won't be the shock and awe we featured this season but perhaps it's overall a more balanced team. When Cashman made the the deal for Stanton he was 2 years older than Soto is now and a better fielder. Despite his postseason heroics, very few fans look back on that deal fondly. And yet many of the same people want Cashman to give Soto an even longer and richer deal now. There's levels to it though. Stanton with MIA had a career slash line of .268/.360/.554. He had 1,140 strikeouts to 487 walks. He also had a history o finjury troubles already with multiple shortened seasons. Soto's career slash is .285/.421/.532. He's got more walks than strikeouts in his career than strikeouts - 769 to 696. He's been remarkably durable. And as you mentioned, he's 2 years younger. Stanton was always a high strikeout hitter. He walked a lot but a lot of that was dependent on pitchers just fearing even attacking him. As he's aged and struggled more with the strikeouts, the walk rates have gone down because pitchers aren't as afraid to attack him. Being in better lineups also impacts that. Soto on the other hand, has some of the best plate discipline we've ever seen. There's no strikeout trends to be warry of. He's also 2 years younger and healthier than Stanton so any forecasted decline is already pushed back. I don't think anyone expects Soto to be great in his late 30s or early 40s, which is what this next contract likely takes him to. But he's also 26. There's really no trends or data even remotely concerning with his hitting. |
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Post by Max on Nov 21, 2024 13:57:44 GMT -5
The only sure thing that happens when a free agent signs a long term deal is that the signing team is on the hook for the money. Maybe Juan Soto is a generational talent. And maybe he will continue to improve. But maybe his career will look more like that of Vada Pinson, Carlos Baerga, Cesar Cedeno or Mike Trout. Just like there are late bloomers in MLB, there are guys who hit their prime before they celebrate their 27th birthday. Boras is going to get at least one or two opt outs of any deal that Soto signs. If Soto continues to perform, the deal he signs this year will be the floor for the next. And if he doesn't, he'll still get paid. The last hitter like this the Yankees passed on was Harper, and Soto is an even better hitter than he was. He's New York tested. He's been excellent in the post season. There is nothing else like him on the market. Anyone could drop off at any time, but he's the least likely to among all of the hitters they could sign. He's the only one capable of hitting at his elite level. And if there is any George in Hal, Soto is also the guy who will put the most fannies in the seats. He'll generate the most buzz and interest in the team. I know the risks but am still strongly on Team Keep Soto. I want the Yankees to keep Soto too. But what kind of contract would you want Hal to offer him? |
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Juan Soto
Nov 21, 2024 14:13:43 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by inger on Nov 21, 2024 14:13:43 GMT -5
When Cashman made the the deal for Stanton he was 2 years older than Soto is now and a better fielder. Despite his postseason heroics, very few fans look back on that deal fondly. And yet many of the same people want Cashman to give Soto an even longer and richer deal now. There's levels to it though. Stanton with MIA had a career slash line of .268/.360/.554. He had 1,140 strikeouts to 487 walks. He also had a history o finjury troubles already with multiple shortened seasons. Soto's career slash is .285/.421/.532. He's got more walks than strikeouts in his career than strikeouts - 769 to 696. He's been remarkably durable. And as you mentioned, he's 2 years younger. Stanton was always a high strikeout hitter. He walked a lot but a lot of that was dependent on pitchers just fearing even attacking him. As he's aged and struggled more with the strikeouts, the walk rates have gone down because pitchers aren't as afraid to attack him. Being in better lineups also impacts that. Soto on the other hand, has some of the best plate discipline we've ever seen. There's no strikeout trends to be warry of. He's also 2 years younger and healthier than Stanton so any forecasted decline is already pushed back. I don't think anyone expects Soto to be great in his late 30s or early 40s, which is what this next contract likely takes him to. But he's also 26. There's really no trends or data even remotely concerning with his hitting. Most similar players to Soto through age 25: Bryce Harper (948.0) Frank Robinson (928.7) * Ken Griffey Jr. (925.1) * Mike Trout (914.7) Andruw Jones (905.4) Eddie Mathews (902.9) * Miguel Cabrera (896.9) Mickey Mantle (888.5) * Orlando Cepeda (887.6) * Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (877.0) I’ll take that list any day… |
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