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Post by inger on Oct 25, 2018 9:34:07 GMT -5
Batting average is making a comeback!
And it's About. Damned. Time...
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Post by pippsheadache on Oct 25, 2018 9:46:27 GMT -5
These teams all employ squadrons of stat geeks to analyze every micron of the game, and yet according to (I think) Statcast, Yasiel Puig was positioned 319 feet from home plate on JD Martinez's game-winning soft single to right. The average positioning of a RFer at Fenway is 282 feet, and the average positioning for JD is 294 feet. Those 25 feet would have made a difference. I don't know if Dave Roberts or one of the coaches ignored the information, or had it but Puig ignored them (that always sounds realistic to me).
There's a part of me that's almost sorry that we have that navel-gazing information, and another part that says if you have it, at least use it.
And whatever branch of analytics is telling Roberts to keep his four best HR hitters on the bench for two games, it doesn't seem to be working well. Especially in regard to Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy. Bellinger is obviously one of their best all-around position player on the World Series roster, and Muncy had the fourth-highest OPS lefty on lefty in the major leagues, behind only Christian Yelich, Freddy Freeman and Robinson Cano.
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Post by pippsheadache on Oct 25, 2018 9:55:03 GMT -5
Betting on baseball has always seemed a little weird to me. People will bet on anything Yes they will. Therefore Las Vegas. I have heard of people gambling on airplane flight arrivals (and I don't mean on "Seinfeld"), and with my own eyes saw two people literally gambling on which of two raindrops would get to the bottom of a window pane first. But I agree baseball seems less conducive to betting than football or basketball. Regression to the mean seems much more spread out and erratic in baseball than in those other sports. |
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Post by pippsheadache on Oct 25, 2018 9:58:37 GMT -5
Batting average is making a comeback!And it's About. Damned. Time... Oh yeah. I still care about all those Honus Wagner and Stan Musial and Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn batting titles. Preach it brother. If they don't already do it, I would bet that even at my advanced age I will get to see trophies handed out for launch angle and spin rate. Tony Suck would be rolling over in his grave. |
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Post by inger on Oct 25, 2018 9:58:43 GMT -5
Makes you long for the days when everybody just went with their gut and played the game, doesn’t it? The same thing of course abounds in the corporate world, and has even pierced the armor of small businesses, as everybody has become consumed with time studies and on time inventories, timed scheduling, timed phone conversations, bathroom breaks, time for everything except for time itself.
As for Puig’s positioning... He’s an idiot. He’s probably backed himself up on every play since he had a ball hit over his head in game 7 of the Division Championship Series... The only thing I like about him is # 66. That’s just a pretty cool number...How appropriate that it’s Judge’s number if you stand him on his head...
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Post by pippsheadache on Oct 25, 2018 10:05:40 GMT -5
Makes you long for the days when everybody just went with their gut and played the game, doesn’t it? The same thing of course abounds in the corporate world, and has even pierced the armor of small businesses, as everybody has become consumed with time studies and on time inventories, timed scheduling, timed phone conversations, bathroom breaks, time for everything except for time itself. As for Puig’s positioning... He’s an idiot. He’s probably backed himself up on every play since he had a ball hit over his head in game 7 of the Division Championship Series... The only thing I like about him is # 66. That’s just a pretty cool number...How appropriate that it’s Judge’s number if you stand him on his head... The world is getting a bit too Orwellian for my taste. I do enjoy the insights analytics has provided on the game, but not all of these mountains of stats are equally worthwhile. To me, the reasonable ones are those which prove that guys which our own eyes tell us are really good are in fact really good. As for Puig, despite his flashes of brilliance, he has been a monstrous disappointment in my book. When he first came up, he looked like he might be one of the all-time greats. And while stupidity won't necessarily hurt you in baseball, Puig seems to have the worst kind of stupidity. |
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Post by chiyankee on Oct 25, 2018 10:06:01 GMT -5
And whatever branch of analytics is telling Roberts to keep his four best HR hitters on the bench for two games, it doesn't seem to be working well. Especially in regard to Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy. Bellinger is obviously one of their best all-around position player on the World Series roster, and Muncy had the fourth-highest OPS lefty on lefty in the major leagues, behind only Christian Yelich, Freddy Freeman and Robinson Cano. Yes, there was a huge payoff last night to starting all those right handed hitters who are inferior to the lefties the Dodgers had on the bench: 2 runs & 3 hits. If that was Roberts decision, it makes me wonder if he'll be back as manager next season? |
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Post by chiyankee on Oct 25, 2018 10:08:09 GMT -5
As for Puig’s positioning... He’s an idiot. He’s probably backed himself up on every play since he had a ball hit over his head in game 7 of the Division Championship Series... The only thing I like about him is # 66. That’s just a pretty cool number...How appropriate that it’s Judge’s number if you stand him on his head... Even if Puig was playing in, he probably would have been too busy licking his glove to make a play on Martinez's bloop single. The guy is a complete tool. |
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Post by inger on Oct 25, 2018 10:08:50 GMT -5
Batting average is making a comeback!And it's About. Damned. Time... Oh yeah. I still care about all those Honus Wagner and Stan Musial and Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn batting titles. Preach it brother. If they don't already do it, I would bet that even at my advanced age I will get to see trophies handed out for launch angle and spin rate. Tony Suck would be rolling over in his grave. My argument for years has been that batting average should be a portion of OPS if we really want to get any sense of a player’s ability by completing such a foolish act as adding up numbers that have nothing to do with each other. Today’s OPS looks like this: Joey Gallo .312 + .498 = .810 It should be ..206 + .312 + .498 = 1.308 If you compared those numbers to players who make more contact and contribute base hits, his OPS + would not be 106+, guaranteed. Gallo currently has hit more HR than singles in his MLB career, and has fanned about 20% more often than he’s reached base. *Mr. Gallo’s stats were pulled from my memory, so they may vary from his actual numbers. I used him because he seems to be one of the poster boys, if not THE poster boy for an all or nothing player not named Chris Davis... |
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Post by pippsheadache on Oct 25, 2018 10:12:52 GMT -5
My argument for years has been that batting average should be a portion of OPS if we really want to get any sense of a player’s ability by completing such a foolish act as adding up numbers that have nothing to do with each other. Today’s OPS looks like this: Joey Gallo .312 + .498 = .810 It should be ..206 + .312 + .498 = 1.308 If you compared those numbers to players who make more contact and contribute base hits, his OPS + would not be 106+, guaranteed. Gallo currently has hit more HR than singles in his MLB career, and has fanned about 20% more often than he’s reached base. *Mr. Gallo’s stats were pulled from my memory, so they may vary from his actual numbers. I used him because he seems to be one of the poster boys, if not THE poster boy for an all or nothing player not named Chris Davis... I could get behind that stat, Inger. Maybe call it Weighted Super Ops Plus. A better way to assess the Joey Meyers of this world. |
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Post by chiyankee on Oct 25, 2018 10:25:59 GMT -5
My argument for years has been that batting average should be a portion of OPS if we really want to get any sense of a player’s ability by completing such a foolish act as adding up numbers that have nothing to do with each other. Today’s OPS looks like this: Joey Gallo .312 + .498 = .810 It should be ..206 + .312 + .498 = 1.308 If you compared those numbers to players who make more contact and contribute base hits, his OPS + would not be 106+, guaranteed. Gallo currently has hit more HR than singles in his MLB career, and has fanned about 20% more often than he’s reached base. *Mr. Gallo’s stats were pulled from my memory, so they may vary from his actual numbers. I used him because he seems to be one of the poster boys, if not THE poster boy for an all or nothing player not named Chris Davis... Should that number for Gallo be 1.016? (.206 + .312 +.498 = 1.016) For a comparison, here's Aaron Judge's number's: (.278 + .392 + .528 = 1.198) |
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Post by pippsheadache on Oct 25, 2018 10:54:48 GMT -5
And whatever branch of analytics is telling Roberts to keep his four best HR hitters on the bench for two games, it doesn't seem to be working well. Especially in regard to Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy. Bellinger is obviously one of their best all-around position player on the World Series roster, and Muncy had the fourth-highest OPS lefty on lefty in the major leagues, behind only Christian Yelich, Freddy Freeman and Robinson Cano. Yes, there was a huge payoff last night to starting all those right handed hitters who are inferior to the lefties the Dodgers had on the bench: 2 runs & 3 hits. If that was Roberts decision, it makes me wonder if he'll be back as manager next season? Chi, my guess would be that he will be back but maybe on a very short leash next year. Of course if the Dodgers somehow rally to win this thing, he will be back for years to come. But barring that, I think first with Mattingly and now with Roberts, Dodgers management must be thinking this team is chronically under-achieving given the talent levels of the past few years. Not that back to back World Series appearances mean nothing, but 30 years without a ring for a franchise like the Dodgers can not sit well with the people running the team. Eighteen franchises have won a ring since the Dodgers last did so. (I keep that fact handy for a friend of mine who bleeds Dodger Blue and hates the Yankees.) |
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Post by greatfatness on Oct 25, 2018 11:27:36 GMT -5
Oh yeah. I still care about all those Honus Wagner and Stan Musial and Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn batting titles. Preach it brother. If they don't already do it, I would bet that even at my advanced age I will get to see trophies handed out for launch angle and spin rate. Tony Suck would be rolling over in his grave. My argument for years has been that batting average should be a portion of OPS if we really want to get any sense of a player’s ability by completing such a foolish act as adding up numbers that have nothing to do with each other. Today’s OPS looks like this: Joey Gallo .312 + .498 = .810 It should be ..206 + .312 + .498 = 1.308 If you compared those numbers to players who make more contact and contribute base hits, his OPS + would not be 106+, guaranteed. Gallo currently has hit more HR than singles in his MLB career, and has fanned about 20% more often than he’s reached base. *Mr. Gallo’s stats were pulled from my memory, so they may vary from his actual numbers. I used him because he seems to be one of the poster boys, if not THE poster boy for an all or nothing player not named Chris Davis... I agree that the ability to get a hit is underrated but I don’t agree that OPS combines numbers that have nothing to do with each other. OBP is the measure of a hitters ability to not make an out, which is the most important way for a team to score runs. SLG is the ability to hit for power. Those are still the two most important ways to measure the value of a hitter’s production. |
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Post by inger on Oct 25, 2018 14:53:34 GMT -5
Today’s OPS looks like this: Joey Gallo .312 + .498 = .810 It should be ..206 + .312 + .498 = 1.308 If you compared those numbers to players who make more contact and contribute base hits, his OPS + would not be 106+, guaranteed. Gallo currently has hit more HR than singles in his MLB career, and has fanned about 20% more often than he’s reached base. *Mr. Gallo’s stats were pulled from my memory, so they may vary from his actual numbers. I used him because he seems to be one of the poster boys, if not THE poster boy for an all or nothing player not named Chris Davis... Should that number for Gallo be 1.016? (.206 + .312 +.498 = 1.016) For a comparison, here's Aaron Judge's number's: (.278 + .392 + .528 = 1.198) Yes, thank you, CHI...I must have still been drowsy this morning. Joey Gallo would have to be credited with three batting averages to run to 1.3... (: |
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Post by inger on Oct 25, 2018 21:01:57 GMT -5
My argument for years has been that batting average should be a portion of OPS if we really want to get any sense of a player’s ability by completing such a foolish act as adding up numbers that have nothing to do with each other. Today’s OPS looks like this: Joey Gallo .312 + .498 = .810 It should be ..206 + .312 + .498 = 1.308 If you compared those numbers to players who make more contact and contribute base hits, his OPS + would not be 106+, guaranteed. Gallo currently has hit more HR than singles in his MLB career, and has fanned about 20% more often than he’s reached base. *Mr. Gallo’s stats were pulled from my memory, so they may vary from his actual numbers. I used him because he seems to be one of the poster boys, if not THE poster boy for an all or nothing player not named Chris Davis... I agree that the ability to get a hit is underrated but I don’t agree that OPS combines numbers that have nothing to do with each other. OBP is the measure of a hitters ability to not make an out, which is the most important way for a team to score runs. SLG is the ability to hit for power. Those are still the two most important ways to measure the value of a hitter’s production. Which are still two entirely different skills. Of course adding BA to the subset makes it three. I will say that I have no better ideas. I wonder if a mathematician might have a super complicated formula that would be the holy grail of rating offensive prowess? I used to use BA + OBP + SLG way back in the mid-seventies when I drafted my teams in an Strat-O-Magic league to win ten consecutive pennants in a four team draft league with 40 game seasons, so it worked for me back then. Of course, I also made a personal rule to select with defense first, do the players had to be the best hitters among the highest-rated fielders. My outfielder’s and catcher’s throwing arms were also extremely important, and I would also lean toward speedier players when the offense was close. Having a lot of the speed PLUS stocking up on the best throwing arms was a nice sneaky little strategy.., Pitching was always more important than anything, though... |
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