Manny Machado vs. Miguel Andujar

This makes sense except for the idea that the Yankees would sign Machado motivated in any respect by the Mets new delusional GM issuing proclamations about his team being the favorites in their division. That’s a complete non factor except for Mets fans thinking about buying tickets as Christmas presents.

They’ll sign Machado if they feel like the contract he’s demanding is a sensible investment, and they won’t if they don’t.

They’re on record they like the player and for sure he improves the team.

The fact that he doesn’t always hustle and apparently isn’t smart enough to know not to talk about it are non-issues. They’ve gone out of their way to acquire worse people than Machado and have had dumber guys than him as well.

But they’re not going to pay any price for him or anyone else, they’ve made that clear. So if he prices himself out they have other plans I am sure.

My most sincere hope is that he does just that, prices himself out of the Yankees ardor. This crazy-ass ego-fueled idea that every deluxe FA has to try to set a new record for the richest contract in history is absurd. It may even have to do with why neither he nor Harper have signed yet...” Let’s see what HE gets so I can ask for more...

Inflation be damned, not every top free agent doesn’t always deserve more than those that sold their souls before them...

Maybe no one wants to give Machado 300 million?

True, but players like Bonilla were signed at the end of their primes, while Harper and Machado will arguably be in their primes for the next 6-8 years, with above average seasons remaining for up to 10 years.

I think the reality is that the agents for both will have their clients sign contracts that have big numbers (i.e. 9 years $290M), but have opt outs that mean the player will not play out that deal, but finish on a contract that they signed later.

I think the Yanks would be wise to give Machado a deal that allows him to opt out at years 3, 5 and 7- and he would probably use that 3rd year option to get one more big payday before 30. 

The problem with these opt out contracts is that they only tend to benefit one party, the player. If he plays well, then all of a sudden he's looking at an opportunity to depart. If he gets injured or plays poorly, so what? The team is screwed over by having a player on the roster that isn't earning his money.

I know that B-R's player similarity scores are not a bible to determine what will happen, but they are a fun bit of history that we can review to get an idea of what any player's future may look like. Here is the list of Machado's best comps at age 25...

Similar Batters through 25
Adrian Beltre (920.2)
Ron Santo (907.2) *
Andruw Jones (891.6)
Ruben Sierra (890.9)
Ryan Zimmerman (889.3)
Bryce Harper (880.8)
Cal Ripken Jr. (876.2) *
Eric Chavez (872.1)
Ken Griffey Jr. (870.4) *
Cesar Cedeno (867.9)
* - Signifies Hall of Famer

There are three HOF players on this list, so he's in some good company. One would at least predict that Beltre has a good shot at being elected to the HOF, while it's too early to tell if Machado's free agent mate, Harper will gain admittance.

So we know that some of the players have succeeded and rather well. It's curious that the top two comps are third basemen, coincidental I suppose. It's also coincidental that a player who was a SS and got moved to third later in his career, Ripken, Jr. is represented. Ripken wasn't moved to third until his age 36 season, a move that should have technically been made at least four years earlier, but the move was delayed much to accommodate the Ripken ego. I always felt Ripken to be over rated...but that's another discussion so I'll stop there. With this group of five players having been commented on, that leaves half of the pack to assess...

Andruw Jones, Ruben Sierra, Ryan Zimmerman (yet another who was a third baseman), Eric Chavez (take that! another 3B), and Cesar Cedeno.

Let's give Andruw Jones the opportunity to be a free agent at 25/26 and imagine a ten year contract with the opt outs you suggest. In year three, at age 28 he hits 51 HR and is still fielding CF masterfully. So, he opts out...and either gets a nice little raise to allow us the pleasure of keeping him, or he leaves for more money. Hopefully we would have let him walk...but do you do that when a guy has just clubbed 51 HR? We do know that he hit 41 the next season, but his last six years saw a horrendous drop in play and somebody was on the hook for that big raise. Maybe us. Maybe not.

What about Ruben Sierra? He was every bit the star with the stick at 25, and a switch hitter to boot...It's pretty much the same story with Ruben. He plays as expected for the next three years. After that, he remains a valuable player who plays more as a role player than a full time star, but nowhere near the value of his contract, much less the potential raise from his opt out.

Zimmerman, I swear the record seems to be skipping here. He was highly revered up to age 25/26 and again, for the next three years he continues to produce at a high level. Same story here with the exception of the fact that Zimmerman suffers a nasty injury that limits his mobility and now if we still have the pleasure of paying him for his original contract and a nice little raise in year three we must juggle the team and find room for him at 1B, where he becomes a bit more of a fragile star as well as an inconsistent producer, just good enough to give hope, and in fact flashes his old form here and there. The jury is still out, as he is still playing.

Eric Chavez is one we're already a bit familiar with as he was a Yankee for a bit. Wonderful numbers, great fielding up to 25/26. Darn near Manny-like but in a slightly different era. So he has two more good years after signing the big contract, and then he drops off in year three. I would imagine he would NOT exercise his option and we'd be stuck for the last seven years with a fragile, but still talented and likable player. For the big bucks over the final 7 years he contributes 48 total HR and hits at a 101+ OPS when he's available, but he averages only 75 games played per season.

The final piece is Cesar Cedeno, who looked like a HOF superstar up to age 25/26 winter. He was coming off his fifth consecutive season of 50+ stolen bases, had hit .320 twice, was getting on base and had HR pop in his bat enough to hit 20+ in three seasons and mid double figure HR as a minimum in a large ball park. Yes, he was a good 'un...The following season he does honor to his contract, stealing 61 bases. He gets injured the following season and by the third year his play has dropped of badly enough that there is no way he's going to opt out. The next seven years there are only glimpses of the talent package he brought to the team as he struggles to stay on the field an in the lineup. He hits well (OPS +112) but only averages about 100 games, 7 HR and 17 SB per season.

Thanks for playing. It's all imagination. I'll leave it to others to imagine what might have happened with the HOF players, whether they would be retained or worthy of their contracts, as well as Beltran and the possibilities of Harper's future career...and Machado's for that matter...This is just an exercise done for fun and not to be taken too seriously...but there was a story to tell. Now I have to get down to family business. It's Christmas after all... (:

“A hedge against the future”? That’s why Manny Machado is looking for $300,000,000? Boy, I hope he can find some way to get by if he only gets $275,000,000. That’s rough.

The team won 100 games last year. Complaining that they won’t spend enough to put a championship team on the field is not a rational argument.