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Post by inger on Aug 29, 2019 20:03:30 GMT -5
That record against teams with winning records refers to teams who currently have winning records, not teams that at one time in April had a winning record. So while I admire your chivalrous effort to find a speck of rationality in the argument, I'm afraid we can't give credit for even a sliver of a point. But the generous instinct is admirable. I think it was the record at the time we played the team...I didn’t research that aspect, but since this record has been quoted at various times of the year I thought that to be how it was accumulated. Could be wrong. I don’t mind being baited into commentary, but being baited into research is not something I enjoy unless it’s for a good reason, like I care about or am impassioned by the subject matter. But now that you mention it, I am a really nice guy. And doggone it, people LIKE me!... (: |
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Post by pippsheadache on Aug 29, 2019 20:16:52 GMT -5
Okay, I actually went back to check the team by team records. That 37-25 mark is in fact against teams that currently have winning records.
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Post by noetsi on Aug 29, 2019 20:28:48 GMT -5
There are two models: 1) Look at overall season. 2) Look at the recent past. The problem I have is that people chose each of these to maximize their argument. So if the Yankees did well in the season, but bad recently, they rely on the season, and if they did well recently, but poorly in the season they stress recent events. This is even more obvious with particular players. Personally I think you should go with the overall season most often. But record against winning teams is a different phenomenon than winning against play off bound teams. My comments tend to be about how we match up against play off bound teams. Bringing up those who simply have winning records does not address this. Your premise is ridiculous. There are six teams in the American League besides the Yankees with a winning record. Every one of them has a realistic chance to be a playoff team. There is no meaningful distinction between a team with a winning record and a playoff bound team. To cite an obvious example Boston is 10 games over 500 but would have to make up 6 games against two other teams to make the play offs which I think is extremely unlikely. So to me, who focus on what is likely not mathematically possible, there is a difference between play off bound teams and having a winning record. I understand you reject my "likely" models  |
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Post by pippsheadache on Aug 29, 2019 20:28:55 GMT -5
Just to back up the point -- the Yankees are 11-4 against Boston, 3-4 against Cleveland, 3-4 against Houston, 0-3 against Oakland, 4-2 against Minnesota, 12-5 against Tampa Bay, 2-1 against the Dodgers and 2-2 against the Mets. Adds up to 37-25, best in the majors against winning teams.
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Post by pippsheadache on Aug 29, 2019 20:48:50 GMT -5
Your premise is ridiculous. There are six teams in the American League besides the Yankees with a winning record. Every one of them has a realistic chance to be a playoff team. There is no meaningful distinction between a team with a winning record and a playoff bound team. To cite an obvious example Boston is 10 games over 500 but would have to make up 6 games against two other teams to make the play offs which I think is extremely unlikely. So to me, who focus on what is likely not mathematically possible, there is a difference between play off bound teams and having a winning record. I understand you reject my "likely" models Boston has six more losses than Oakland and four more losses than Tampa Bay, with which it has three games remaining. It would hardly be historic for them to make up that much ground with 27-28 games remaining. At a disadvantage, for sure, and I fervently hope they do not make the post-season. But it wouldn't be miraculous if they did. I get it that you take some creepy pleasure in being dismissive of any achievements by the Yankees, but the fact remains that no matter how much distress it may cause you, they have the best record against winning teams of any team in baseball. Or do you have some "model" to indicate exactly what team is doing better? |
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Post by noetsi on Aug 29, 2019 20:50:44 GMT -5
I just don't agree with your models. A month ago my model said the division was over and the Yankees had won. Everyone said I was an idiot for saying that. I was the one being "positive" about the yankees then.
To me data is data.
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Post by inger on Aug 29, 2019 21:15:09 GMT -5
I just don't agree with your models. A month ago my model said the division was over and the Yankees had won. Everyone said I was an idiot for saying that. I was the one being "positive" about the yankees then. To me data is data. A month ago when you said that, the division race was not over. The odds were strong in the Yankees favor, but... you got lucky that there was not an unfortunate set of events...At that point within a week the division race could have been seriously jeopardized. Perhaps read the fable about the tortoise and the hare ometime... |
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Post by noetsi on Aug 29, 2019 21:20:48 GMT -5
It was over given the probabilities and historic baseball realities. It was not over mathematically.
There is a difference between the two as I said. I believe that probabilities, and history are more important than what is theoretically possible.
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Post by inger on Aug 29, 2019 21:37:54 GMT -5
It was over given the probabilities and historic baseball realities. It was not over mathematically. There is a difference between the two as I said. I believe that probabilities, and history are more important than what is theoretically possible. It was not “over” historically. I specifically recall posters stating some instances that proved that to you. You dismissed them as “rare occurrences” and did so without any supporting evidence... We all knew that the probabilities were in our favor. I recall a game of horseshoes I played with my older brother once in which I trailed 20-1 to his glee. When I threw 9 consecutive ringers (I had to cap two ringers he threw during the string) to turn the tide and won 22-21. I was a skinny 14 year old and he was a 26 year old former military man with two children. I pissed him off so bad he refused to play against me for weeks afterward. Figure the “probabilities” on that one, but it happened... By the way, the pits were primitive and I’m about as certain as I can be that I had never and never again made anywhere near to nine consecutive ringers before or after. I’m quite certain some of them were among the ugliest and most fortunate ringers thrown in the history of mankind. When you play sports you get a realistic view of what it’s like to get hot and cold. Of what momentum is. How much luck comes into play. You allow yourself to be trapped by your lack of personal experience. At least get yourself a set of jacks or tiddlywinks so you can add some practice experience... |
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Post by noetsi on Aug 29, 2019 21:48:08 GMT -5
You have to decide at what point probabilities become so great that alternatives don't really matter.
I don't consider personal experience to be very important relative to formal data analysis. I am not saying that is right, it is just my belief. Likely influenced by a lifetime spent at universities. Its basically impossible to generalize based on one's inherently limited experiences.
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Post by inger on Aug 29, 2019 22:19:58 GMT -5
To cite an obvious example Boston is 10 games over 500 but would have to make up 6 games against two other teams to make the play offs which I think is extremely unlikely. So to me, who focus on what is likely not mathematically possible, there is a difference between play off bound teams and having a winning record. I understand you reject my "likely" models Boston has six more losses than Oakland and four more losses than Tampa Bay, with which it has three games remaining. It would hardly be historic for them to make up that much ground with 27-28 games remaining. At a disadvantage, for sure, and I fervently hope they do not make the post-season. But it wouldn't be miraculous if they did. I get it that you take some creepy pleasure in being dismissive of any achievements by the Yankees, but the fact remains that no matter how much distress it may cause you, they have the best record against winning teams of any team in baseball. Or do you have some "model" to indicate exactly what team is doing better? I’m so happy you added this post because if we eliminate Boston from the stats the Yankee record drops to 26-21(.553) which would both reduce the sample and the severity of the winning sample. One of the major differences in your (and my) opinions based on facts vs. Russell’s opinion is that of Russell’s absolute (and false) view that Boston is no longer a factor in the Wild Card...They are one crazy week away from being right back in the thick of things, which if forgotten could become very vexing should that occur. Thank you for taking the time to research the issue of how that won-loss record was accumulated... I wondered a bit, but I had a couple other projects I was enjoying wasting my precious living moments on more... (: |
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Post by rizzuto on Aug 29, 2019 22:49:29 GMT -5
I just don't agree with your models. A month ago my model said the division was over and the Yankees had won. Everyone said I was an idiot for saying that. I was the one being "positive" about the yankees then. To me data is data. Name one poster who said you were an idiot to predict the division was over? And, choosing the front runner with a ten game lead in the loss column is hardly a model. |
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Post by inger on Aug 29, 2019 23:17:05 GMT -5
I just don't agree with your models. A month ago my model said the division was over and the Yankees had won. Everyone said I was an idiot for saying that. I was the one being "positive" about the yankees then. To me data is data. Name one poster who said you were an idiot to predict the division was over? And, choosing the front runner with a ten game lead in the loss column is hardly a model. He assumes we are calling him an idiot whenever we disagree with him. This is more by far what he thinks than what anyone is saying. Perhaps that’s due to his having surrounded himself in academia through this life. Questions in academia are either answered correct (brilliant) or wrong (idiot, you failed). Sports contains a lot of grey area, which seems to fail to compute within the context of his grey matter. Given his life experiences, I’m often shocked to find him posting on a sports forum. I sort of congratulate him for reaching beyond that which he has been prepared for his entire life. I also feel he should take the forum as an opportunity to learn, rather than to instruct. We all learn here...Most of us... most of the time... (: |
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Post by utahyank on Aug 30, 2019 0:12:55 GMT -5
in regard to the "we are all learning" comment.....I had thought this site was like the old water cooler or coffee shop discussions we had in the "old" days (pre-internet and pre-sabermetrics) in which everyone had their opinions and biases....and it showed in their conversation....
I know I am the odd one here, but the arguments based on numbers takes a lot of the fun out of baseball for me...I rarely post anymore, because of a rather simple example that is innocuous in a single instance, but in a repeating pattern makes me reluctant to share an observation or opinion..…..I watched some Red Sox games earlier this season where there were some poor performances by their relievers and on-camera frustrations toward their manager, which I commented on....what I got in return, rather than the conversation I had hoped for, was a kind of challenge to what I had observed, and a bunch of numbers to refute that.....gee whiz....
What has prompted me to finally unload on this is the pure fun of watching four college football games tonight....good and bad play, but the emphasis was on the fun of watching athletic plays....that is what I have always loved about baseball....the watching of the playing of the game and it's players....football has not gotten to the point of announcers telling the launch angle of the quarterback passes, or the exit velocity, or some other frivolous stat....
I do mute the TV often just because the announcers of the baseball games feel they must show their understanding of the depths of the most minute of stats....
Now, I'm not finding fault with anyone here...most of you love the numbers, and feel this is the cudgel you can use to knock the head of anyone who ventures an opinion that can be refuted by the use of numbers...…..I guess I am alone in this, but I hope it might create some discussion....a discussion that does not disintegrate into a bunch of numbers.....is there anyone out there in is space that relates at all to these comments...and thinks it is perfectly OK to have an opinion that may not be consistent with numbers that can be thrown against them?...if not, regards to all, and best wishes....
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Post by inger on Aug 30, 2019 0:34:13 GMT -5
I take no issue with anything you’ve said here. We all learn in many different ways. I like the comparison to the water cooler conversations, but they too are now often dominated by numbers on a world that has a spread sheet for everything and a camera that is aimed at us more than any of us would like.
As the world changes we can resist with all of our might, but the change will come. Unfortunately I don’t recall the incident with the Red Sox game that you recall.
My thought is sort of that numbers can be used to prove a pint or to refute one. The discussion you’ve joined here was about the possibility of a team’s ability to overcome odds and make a comeback. The point being used to refute that was supportive of what you were saying to a greater degree. A sort of support of the Berraism “It ain’t over until it’s over”.
I’ll admit to being a bit foggy as to what has made you reluctant to post, but I hope it’s something you can overcome. Simple disagreement can also occur at the water cooler with a fight breaking out or someone quitting or losing their job.
If I was a part of the hurtful issue, I’d like to be able to review that with you. If not, perhaps we should all hear the issue so we can understand better. Feel free to PM me if I can be of help...
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