Minor League & Prospects Thread

Fridays AFL pay-off box score. The River Rafters win 13-4. Caleb Durbin has a 1-2 day with a double, a BB, 1 run scored and 1 RBI. Garrett Martin goes 2-5 with a homer, 3 RBI, 2 runs scored. He also K'd twice. Antonio Gomez has a single in 5 trips, with 1 RBI. He also struck out three times and a pass ball. No Yankee pitchers appeared in the game.

www.mlb.com/gameday/rafters-vs-scorpions/2024/11/15/787541/final/box

Desouza, appears Reuter agrees with you that our farm system took a step backwards. He has only 1 prospect in the top 99 and only 3 in the top 150.
bleacherreport.com/articles/10143157-updated-top-100-mlb-prospect-list-for-2024-25-offseason

For the prospects off their team's Top 30 Prospects List, and being part of the AFL, which prospects do you believe will be on those lists by Spring Training next year, and where would you reasonably rank them? -- @steviedales97

We discussed this topic on the latest Pipeline Podcast and the most obvious choice is Yankees infielder Caleb Durbin, who has run wild in the Arizona Fall League the last two seasons. A solid baserunner with tremendous instincts on the bases, he has set league records for steals in a season (29 in 24 games) and career (50 in 47 contests) and twice tied the mark for swipes in a game (four).

Durbin controls the strike zone while making regular line-drive contact and delivered a career-high 10 homers while slashing .287/.388/.451 in 82 Triple-A games this season. He’s also a versatile defender who has started games at second base, third base, shortstop, left field and center field in both Triple-A and the AFL in 2024. Earlier this week, Yankees manager Aaron Boone said he expected Durbin to play a significant role in the big leagues in 2025.

On the podcast, Jonathan Mayo suggested three other candidates. Reds reliever Luis Mey has thrown the 34 hardest recorded pitches in the Fall League this season, topping out at 102 mph. Pirates outfielder Sammy Siani’s tools got him drafted in the supplemental first round in 2019 and he’s making encouraging progress with the bat, while Samy Natera (Angels) has been one of the most impressive southpaws in the AFL.

Durbin and Siani look more like complementary players than regulars on a contender, Mey is strictly a bullpen option with little history of throwing strikes and Natera is more middle reliever than starter. They all should make Top 30s but factor in the bottom third of those lists when we update them early next year.
www.mlb.com/yankees/news/pipeline-inbox-ethan-holliday-jace-laviollette

Thanks for all these daily AFL updates, desousa!  

I happened to catch the last half inning. There was a ground ball hit to second but I think someone other than Durbin made the play. What position did he play? I think they also showed a highlight of Gomez gunning a runner out at 3B. He looks like a good defensive catcher. IIRC, he's rule 5 eligible. It will be interesting to see if he's added to the 40. 

Final Arizona Fall League takeaways
Caleb Durbin is a true option at second for the 2025 Yankees, Carlos Lagrange has some problems, and more.
www.pinstripealley.com/2024/11/18/24299545/yankees-afl-prospects-review-arizona-fall-league-caleb-durbin-carlos-lagrange-martin-gomez-pacheco

Welcome to the last edition of the 2024 Arizona Fall League update. This piece will serve as the final takeaway for each participating Yankees prospect. They were each part of the Salt Lake Rafters club, which ultimately won the AFL championship over the weekend, so congratulations to them!

Let’s dig in.

2B/SS/OF Caleb Durbin
I’m not going too in-depth on Durbin since I inadvertently wrote a full scouting report on him last week. He was incredible in his second AFL campaign — so much so that he broke the single-season stolen bases record with 29 in just 24 regular-season games. Durbin is certified #good at baseball and should be part of the Yankees’ plans next season. At worst, he is a better utilityman than Oswaldo Cabrera, and at best, he is a starting option at second to replace Gleyber Torres, who looks to be on his way out. I will, however, put some Trackman numbers to his success (and the others in this writeup) in the Fall League:

Average Exit Velocity: 86.3, 40-grade
Max Exit Velocity: 105.3, 40-grade
90th-percentile Exit Velocity: 101.3, 40-grade
Launch Angle: 17.1, 60-grade (I love line drives with lesser EVs; gap monster)
In-Zone Contact: 92.2, 80-grade (no, I’m not saying he has an 8-hit tool)
Chase: 30.5, 45-grade
Zone Swing: 55.7, 40-grade

OF/1B Garrett Martin

The champion of the AFL Home Run Derby, Martin started scalding hot for the Rafters but cooled down towards the end. The reality is that he’s a tweener profile in the outfield (not good enough with the bat to justify a corner OF spot) with good-but-not-great Trackman data and an underwhelming scouting eval.

Martin’s swing is stiff albeit not long, hence why he makes more contact than you’d initially think. His swing decisions are fine in a vacuum, but everything makes for an OK bat. With two strikes, he expands the zone a fair bit and thus suffers K’s too often in ways that wouldn’t be obvious when first glancing at the data. He doesn’t have a go-to tool where I can convince myself to think he’ll be an everyday option one day. Still, his batted-ball markers were better than I expected (albeit against very subpar AFL pitching), so he looks like Tyler Austin, a semi-popular name from the previous generation of Baby Bombers.

Average Exit Velocity: 90.1, 60-grade
Max Exit Velocity: 112.2, 55-grade
90th-percentile Exit Velocity: 108.6, 55-grade
Launch Angle: 10.4, 45-grade
In-Zone Contact: 84.8, 55-grade
Chase: 28.7, 50-grade
Zone Swing: 65.3, 45-grade

C Antonio Gomez

If you remember, we were supposed to see 2024 breakout Rafael Flores in Arizona. Instead, he was replaced at the last minute with Gomez, who has been in the minor leagues for what seems to be a decade.

Gomez had a subpar AFL campaign, which can be said for most of his stops in the minor leagues at this point. He’s just not that good, and this is all coming from a guy who used to be an AG truther. Despite a cannon for an arm behind the dish, nothing suggests that he’ll be an above-average bat or defender. He’s stiff, not that explosive, and has nearly 1,200 minor-league plate appearances since 2019. Gomez will not be protected on the 40-man this offseason, so it’s as good as over for him as a hopeful top prospect.

Average Exit Velocity: 91.5, 60-grade
Max Exit Velocity: 105.8, 40-grade
90th-percentile Exit Velocity: 104.8, 45-grade
Launch Angle: 2.3, 30-grade
In-Zone Contact: 75.5, 40-grade
Chase: 31.3, 45-grade
Zone Swing: 71.6, 55-grade

RHP Carlos Lagrange

Despite how electric Lagrange can be, his command is teetering on untenable even in a reliever capacity. Although he touched 100 with his fastball in the Fall League, he doesn’t get many whiffs on it because it’s flat, doesn’t have rising or glove/arm-side action, and hitters know he barely eclipses getting his fastball in the zone a third of the time. His command was so bad to the point where he walked 15 batters in just 8.2 innings. Yikes!

Lagrange’s slider is a disgusting pitch in every sense of the word, generating an insane amount of two-plane break while touching 90. He has shown zero feel for locating his changeup in the zone, though, and hitters have thus learned to spit on it. He is fundamentally flawed as a prospect, to the point where I’m considering him exclusively as a relief prospect until further notice.*

*Yes, I’m sure the Yankees will trot him out there as a starter because they should! It’s the minor leagues!

Fastball: 96-98, T100 | 19.6 Whiff % | 18.8 Chase % — 55-grade (velo is only saving grace)
Slider: 84-96, T90 | 42.9 Whiff % | 7.1 Chase % — 70-grade
Changeup: 86-89, T90 | 50 Whiff %, 0 Chase % — 40-grade (small sample size alert)

RHP Luis Pacheco
Pacheco, 25, was signed during the 2024 season out of the Mexican League after he roamed there for several years. While he was impressive in Low-A upon signing, he frankly should’ve been dominating considering he was 4-5 years older than most players.

The AFL proved to be a better challenge for Pacheco, but his topline numbers (1.86 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) were still good. He has a good sinker that averages 95, can touch 97, and gets plenty of chases outside the zone. He struggles to throw it for strikes since it moves so much, and it could point to him being a frustratingly inconsistent strike-thrower out of the bullpen. He doesn’t have another go-to offering at this point, as his sweeper doesn’t get tons of chase or whiffs and isn’t an airbender like we’ve grown accustomed to in the Yankees’ organization. Pacheco is a one-trick pony with subpar command and thus, is tracking like a low-leverage relief option.

Sinker: 94-96, T97 | 16.7 Whiff % | 38.9 Chase % — 55-grade (command drags down grade)
Sweeper: 81-84, T86 | 0 Whiff % | 0 Chase % — 30-grade
I won’t do full write-ups of the other pitchers, but Harrison Cohen was by far the best Yankees pitcher in the AFL. While he doesn’t overwhelm with velocity (he tops at 95), each of his fastball, cutter, and change have optimized movement profiles. He is a solid albeit unspectacular relief prospect. Ryan Harvey and Jackson Fristoe were brutal from a topline, scouting, and Trackman standpoint; as far as I’m concerned, they’re off the prospect radar for now.

Well, that does it for the Arizona Fall League. There will be winter ball action to keep an eye on, but the organized Yankees prospect work for 2024 has come to a close. Thanks for joining me on this journey since spring training!

Thanks for posting, jiminy. I wonder why Gomez replaced Flores at the last minute. Flores is definitely the better hitter of the two, but Gomez may be the better catcher. Flores played half of his games this past season at first, so that me be where he ends up. His lifetime CS % is 17%. Gomez's is 29%. Gomez hasn't played first, but DH's a fourth of the time.