Game 115: Yankees (Taillon) at Red Sox (Wacha)

Scouting report on Wacha:

Michael Wacha is currently on the 15 Day IL but is expected to be activated and pitch tonight. He owns a 2.69 ERA over 70.1 IP this year.

Why his ERA is very misleading and why i believe this could be a great night for the yanks:

First of all lets start with Wacha's 2 main pitches: From Volume wise thats the 4sm (35%) and the Changeup (30%). But Wacha is known for his great Changeup. And early this season, that Pitch has been absolutely great. In fact, his Changeup is so good that he can actually use it against righties, as a righty. Usually you dont throw the changeup to the same side batters. I dont think i have had a breakdown here on a guy that throws more than 5-10% of the Changeup to the same side batter (Fun Fact: The yanks have one of the guys that can do that as well though: Sevy, 22% Changeups against righties). Additionally to the 4sm and Change, Wacha will throw a limited amount of Sinkers (15%), Cutters and Curveballs (both ~ 10%).

His approach agains lefties is very extreme. 80 % of pitches are going to be either the 4sm or the Change, which means they look a lot like each other and then the change will obviously fall. So dont be surprised to see Rizzo, Benny being off with the bat, either ahead or behind. However: I could see that benny might not start, Rizzo is a given i believe. Why? Wacha's stats versus lefties are really good. Allowed Slashline: .155/.234/.250 = .484 OPS. I guess a rigthy heavy lineup should be expected tonight. Though this year, Wacha has had an almost even amount of PA's against lefties/righties. I think thats odd, given that he allows an .731 OPS against righties.

From a value perspective the Changeups has always been great through the years. But Wacha has been having problems with his Fastball and "secondary" Pitches. Last year it was the Cutter, the 2 years before it was the 4sm. No matter what, he had one Pitch that was ranked right at the bottom of the league. This year he has been keeping his other Pitches very to the league average though. And whats also Interisting: his Sinker, which he uses a lot more than the years prior, has been right up there in terms of overall value with the Change. But because he uses a lot less than the Changeup, the Value per 100 Pitches (Thats the Scale BS gives you) has been almost double than that of the Changeup. So there is an argument to be made that the Sinker is his best pitch this year so far.

Now i have talked a lot about Wacha's Pitches and allowed stats. But i have said he could be a pitcher the yanks can take advantage of. Well, thats because his metrics and expected stats do not support his actual stats AT ALL. Quick look at his BS Page. His xERA is at 4.77! More than 2 full runs per 9 higher than his actual ERA. His FIP is at 3.97 and the xFIP at 4.30, also way higher than his actual ERA. I mean wow, that is more extreme than anything i have seen so far. But also reasonable because he only has 70.1 IP, which means the sample size is still "small". Also to consider: His Career ERA sits at 4.05, which would be a lot closer to his expected Stats.

What have his outings looked like before his IL stint? Ok, nothing special outside of one game. He usually went up to 6 Innings and 0-3 ER. Then, out of nowhere, he threw a CGSO against the angels with only 3 hits allowed. After that it went downhill however. Allowed runs in all outings, twice more than 3 ER. IF i had to guess, i would say he wont go further than 5 IP today unless he is on a real roll.

Where does that leave us? It leaves us with a Pitcher that is overperforming his expected stats by a wide margin coming off the IL. The expected stats catch up to almost every player ever. And i would say today is a good day to do so!