Quick Yankee Notes

Probably. He just misread the futures on salary and thought a lower threshold would stop the madness. And it IS madness…

SB Nation | Demetrius Bell: Luis Gil, Yankees ace. There is some sarcasm in that comment, but Gil’s performance have made us all very relaxed about the slow timeline that Gerrit Cole is on. Gil’s ability to limit contact and miss bats has been reminiscent of Cole’s 2023 season. If all goes well in Cole’s rehab, it’ll be extremely exciting to see both these guys at the top of the rotation come playoff time.

New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants: Series Preview
The Yankees continue their West Coast tilt with a trip to the Bay.
www.pinstripealley.com/2024/5/31/24167926/new-york-yankees-san-francisco-giants-series-preview-probable-pitchers-stroman-schmidt-cortes-snell
The Yankees’ West Coast road trip marches on tonight as they kick off a three-game set against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park.

The Giants will enter play at 29-28 and in the thick of a wide-open NL playoff picture. Their Pythagorean record suggests their performance has been two wins worse than their outcomes, as the team has been outscored on the year. Pitching has been the main problem; the Giants’ 4.36 team ERA is ahead of only the injury-ravaged Marlins and altitude-doomed Rockies in the NL.

San Francisco has turned it on of late, though, winning eight of their last 11. They just took two games out of three against the Phillies, who boast the best record in baseball.

In advance of tonight’s showdown, let’s take a look at the anticipated starting pitching matchups for all three games (and, as always, be sure to take notice of those pesky West Coast start times).

Friday: Marcus Stroman vs. Jordan Hicks (10:15 pm ET)

Marcus Stroman enters tonight’s game red-hot. He’s allowed just one run across his past three outings, going 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA in that span. The right-hander’s last start came last Saturday in San Diego, where he tossed six scoreless innings in a Yankee victory. Stroman has only pitched more than six innings once this season, in part due to a high volume of walks. He’s walked just a batter apiece in his last two starts, however, giving hope that he may be ready to pitch deeper into games on a more consistent basis. Regardless, the Yankees will gladly take what Stroman’s been giving them.

He’ll square off against Jordan Hicks. The 27-year-old entered 2024 as one of the season’s biggest question marks after San Francisco signed him to a four-year, $44 million contract as a starter despite 312 of his 320 career appearances coming in relief.

So far, the gamble looks like a stroke of genius. Hicks carries a 4-1 record and 2.33 ERA into tonight’s matchup after retooling his arsenal to suit a starter’s workload. After sitting over 100 mph last year, his sinker is down to 95 mph this season while he’s turned his splitter from an afterthought to his second pitch. Opponents are hitting just .077 off the splitter, feeding much of Hicks’ early success.

The one knock against the veteran right-hander: he hasn’t thrown more than five innings in any of his five May outings.

Saturday: Cody Poteet vs. Logan Webb (10:05 pm ET)

It was a wonderful start to the season for Clarke Schmidt, who posted a 2.52 ERA and a 9.9 K/9 through 11 starts this year. Originally lined up to start Saturday, he was placed on the IL yesterday (retroactive to May 27th) with a right lat strain.

In, once again, steps Cody Poteet. The 29-year-old, who filled in with a six-inning, one-run start against the Guardians on April 13th, struggled upon his return to Triple-A, allowing 11 runs in 12.2 May innings before landing on the IL last week with a blister. As such, he hasn’t pitched since May 19th. While he threw 88 pitches that day, it’s unclear if the layoff will limit his pitch count on Saturday.

Poteet will have the formidable task of opposing the Giants’ ace, Logan Webb. Without much fanfare, the 27-year-old has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past few seasons. He finished runner-up in NL Cy Young voting last year, posting a 3.25 ERA and 128 ERA+ while leading MLB with 216 innings pitched. Webb’s been even better this season, pitching to a 2.74 ERA and 138 ERA+ in 72.1 innings. The right-hander features a sinker and a changeup that he throws roughly as frequently, as well as a sweeper and the occasional four-seamer.

Sunday: Nestor Cortes vs. Blake Snell (4:05 pm ET)

After a shaky stretch in late April and early May, Nestor Cortes has returned to form, allowing just two earned runs in 17.1 innings over his past three outings. The 29-year-old’s expected ERA of 2.96 on the season is nearly a half-run lower than his actual ERA, largely on the strength of an elite walk rate of 1.9 per nine innings.

The Giants will give the ball in game three to Blake Snell. The reigning NL Cy Young missed spring training and the start of the season after failing to reach a free-agent agreement until late March. Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the stunted nature of his offseason, the southpaw has been abysmal, going 0-3 with a 10.42 ERA in five starts. The primary culprit has been his four-seamer, against which opponents are slugging .714 after being held to a .389 mark last year.

While it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, his 5.00 expected ERA suggests Snell hasn’t pitched quite as poorly as his results, and he’s still getting batters to whiff and strike out at high clips. He’s been more effective against lefties (.750 opponent OPS) than righties (.949 opponent OPS), so the Yankees would be well-served to consider deploying a righty-heavy lineup against him as he looks to get back on track Sunday.

Conversely…if the LT is lower it would mean that teams not willing to exceed it (most teams) would be less inclined to enter the bidding for FAs, which would mean less competition for the Yanks. That should translate to Yanks being able to offer smaller contracts which would not only reduce the cost of the contract but also mean a lower LT even if they exceeded the threshold.

But...I'm just a caveman. I'll defer to the board's financial professional...Chi...to point out the fallacy in my theory.

Your post sounds well-informed to me!  There are so many ways to look at this. The Yankees should always be at the top of payroll spending, because they’re always at the top at generating revenue, but I can see Hal’s point, since the Yankees already spend a lot of money and he sees other organizations, that don’t spend like the Yanks making the World Series, while his team doesn’t. Hal should ask his own front office about that one.

Either way, it’s a fascinating topic.

Pinstripe Alley: As of this morning (5/28), the Yankees’ 1, 2, 3 hitters all rank in the top ten in fWAR in MLB. Judge ranks #2 with 3.3, Soto ranks #5 with 3.1, and Volpe ranks #9 with 2.6 Has any team had three players finish in the top ten before?

It has indeed happened before, last occurring way back in 2004 when St. Louis had Scott Rolen (third), Jim Edmonds (fifth), and Albert Pujols (sixth) all made it into the top ten. St. Louis actually did it again in 2003 with Edgar Renteria in place of Rolen, but Rolen slotted in just outside the top ten at No. 11 to nearly make it four players — that this core only won a single ring in what was easily their weakest regular season performance team-wise is an enigma to be studied.

As for this year’s Yankees, Judge and Soto were expected to be here and appear solid locks to stay the course, but it’s been Volpe’s emergence and sustained success so far this year that has been a delightful surprise. The underlying metrics aren’t as high on Volpe’s run as they were for fellow rookie-slump-into-sophomore-breakout shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., but the projections for Volpe’s overall season are heading in the same direction and would cement him up at the top of the lineup with the big boys for good.