Quick Yankee Notes

Yankee Luis Gil Latest Starting Pitcher To Dominate With His Fastball
www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/2024/06/12/yankee-luis-gil-latest-starting-pitcher-to-dominate-with-his-fastball/

For years now, the fastball has been falling out of fashion in major league baseball. My annual Pitch Grade series for starting pitchers has consistently shown that the four-seam fastball is the least effective pitch in the game, and the sinker ranks right above it, second to last. Fastball usage rates have been steadily dropping in recent years.

There’s another funny thing about fastballs, however. Great pitchers have great ones. Justin Verlander? Max Scherzer? Jacob deGrom? They all built their success upon the foundation laid by their elite fastballs. Zack Wheeler and Pablo Lopez, who in my mind both deserved Cy Young Awards in 2023, both owed much of their success to a pair of “A+” pitches in their respective fastballs and sinkers.

Luis Gil is writing one amazing story in his first full season in the Yankees’ rotation. He missed all of last year after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in 2022. Gil was a prospect, but not really of the can’t miss variety prior to his injury. He made my statistically-based top pitching prospect list three times in his minor league career, ranking as high as #50 in 2021. His quality of work was good enough, but the quantity was virtually nonexistent. In nine seasons from 2015-23, he pitched a grand total of 345 professional innings. He logged a total of 59 frames from 2021-23, and never once has exceeded 96 innings in a season.

With that limited track record, and with ace Gerrit Cole on the shelf to open 2024, Gil earned a chance to break camp with the big club in the starting rotation. The Yankees weren’t expecting much, and certainly weren’t prepared for the excellence he’s given them. He currently has an 8-1, 2.04, record with a 90/35 K/BB and only 35 hits allowed in 75 innings. His 75 FIP- isn’t nearly as good as his 53 ERA-, but it’s plenty good enough.

With over 40% of the season in the books, sample sizes are large enough to peel a couple layers back from Gil’s performance and get a better feel for his true talent level.

I like to break pitching quality down into three components - bat-missing, walk minimization and contact management. Gil has been elite at two of these three disciplines and poor at the third. He carries the worst walk rate (11.9%) of any current ERA title qualifier in either league. His 30.7% K rate ranks near the top of the list, while he’s a prime contender for AL Contact Manager of the Year honors with a 70 Adjusted Contact Score.

His actual, or Unadjusted Contact Score of 49 is much lower, but Gil has been lucky across all batted ball types, on fly balls (50 Unadjusted vs. 72 Adjusted Contact Score), liners (77 vs. 95) and grounders (62 vs. 98). Gil hasn’t been all that impressive at suppressing contact authority, with overall and batted ball type average exit speeds in the average range across the board. He’s excelled for two reasons, one that he controls and one he does not. His 16.3% liner rate is quite low, and likely to regress upward moving forward. His ability to induce pop ups, however, is real - a 7.8% pop up rate is a very big deal. That’s higher than any qualifying starter in either league last season. Add it all together, and Gil has a “Tru” ERA of 2.55, for a “Tru”- of 66, smack in between his ERA- and FIP-.

So we have a guy who is elite in two major areas, and poor at the one easiest to improve upon as a pitcher ages. Sounds pretty good, right? Well, it’s even better once we dig into his pitch repertoire.

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Gil has dominated to such an extent despite throwing his fastball 55.4% of the time. Only six qualifying starters topped that mark in 2023, Justin Steele, Mackenzie Gore, Spencer Strider, Cristian Javier, Andrew Heaney and Joe Ryan. But it’s not just the usage that stands out - it’s the excellence. He would earn an “A++” grade for his four-seamer to date, with an 82 Adjusted Contact Score and 12.4% whiff rate, both well above pitch-specific averages. That would place him in a group with three Twins, Ryan, Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober among 2023 qualifiers and behind only Zack Wheeler, who received an otherworldly “A++”.

Gil’s secondary pitches aren’t chopped liver, either. Both his changeup (57, 11.0%) and slider (57, 12.8%) currently grade out as “B+” offerings. Both pitches have below average pitch-specific whiff rates but have been elite contact management weapons. He’s been able to get outs at the top of the zone with all of his pitches, a very unique talent.

Where does Gil go from here? The workload is his biggest and maybe only issue. He’s already about to enter uncharted waters innings-wise and it isn’t even the middle of June yet. He’s averaging less than six innings per start and has only gone more than 6 1/3 innings once. That said, it was once assumed that Gil would be the odd man out when Cole returns and that simply isn’t going to be the case, unless the club aggressively moves to limit his workload.

I wouldn’t go there. Gil is effortlessly throwing plenty of four-seamers at an average velocity of 96.5 mph and getting hitters out. As long as he remains in a comparable groove, the club should let him continue. An elite fastball is a precious commodity upon which greatness can be built, and Gil’s got one.

I'm still on a watching and posting timeout but just wanted to say
The Story of my Number Swish was great
and
The Story of my NumberCC now out. I'll watch later

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: Series Preview
The Yankees and Red Sox are set to kick off the 2024 chapter of their rivalry.

www.pinstripealley.com/2024/6/14/24177985/new-york-yankees-boston-red-sox-series-preview-probable-pitchers-luis-gil-rodon-stroman-crawford

While it ended on a sour note, the Yankees’ trip to Kansas City went well, as they came away with another series victory by taking three of four over the Royals. Now, the road trip is set to continue with a visit to Boston to play some old “friends” for the first time this season.

The Red Sox come into this three-game set at Fenway Park with a 35-34 record after taking two out of three from the Phillies — almost exactly .500. To be frank, that’s pretty much what they’ve played like all year as well. Boston has never been above or below five games of .500, and they’ve been 1-1, 2-2, 7-7, 10-10, 19-19, 22-22, 24-24, 26-26, 27-27, 29-29, 30-30, 31-31, 32-32, 33-33, and 34-34 before their current record. They’re far from a bad team, with the likes of Rafael Devers, Tanner Houck, and others putting up good seasons. It’s just that they’re right about average, both in the numbers of runs per game they score and the number per game they allow.

Before the Yankees and Red Sox renew their rivalry tonight, let’s take a look at the expected matchups for the next couple days.

Friday: Luis Gil vs. Brayan Bello (6:30 pm ET)

Please note that this game time is a half and hour earlier than originally scheduled due to the Celtics taking part in the NBA Finals.

In the game, Gil will experience Fenway for the first time, and also his first taste of the rivalry since his brief 2021 run in the big leagues. He’s coming off his “worst” start of recent weeks, but heavy emphasis on the quotation marks. Even then, he only allowed three runs in 5.2 innings against a very powerful Dodgers’ lineup. Those runs dragged his ERA since the beginning of May up to just 1.07.

This is Bello’s third season in the majors, and he’s generally been pretty good against the Yankees in the past, holding them to five earned runs (nine in total) in 31 innings. That being said, so far this season, he’s put up a 4.78 ERA and 4.65 FIP, both career worsts — and a bit of a surprise for Boston since they extended him in March on a six-year, $55 million deal. A lot of that damage has come in recent weeks, as batters are OPSing .847 off him since mid-May.

Saturday: Carlos Rodón vs. Cooper Criswell (7:15 pm ET)

The Rodón 2024 bounce-back continued earlier this week when he held the Royals to one run in seven innings. Much was made of his struggles in 2023, but it should be noted that even last year, he wasn’t terrible in his one start against Boston, allowing one run in five innings, striking out nine.

After having spent parts of the previous three seasons in the majors with the Angels and Rays, this has been Criswell’s first real extended run in the bigs. He started the season in the minors, but was called up in mid-April as Boston dealt with injuries. For the most part, he’s been solid, recording a 4.13 ERA (102 ERA+) and a 3.86 FIP. That being said, he comes in to this series on a bit of a down, as half of the earned runs he’s given up on the season have come in his last three appearances alone.

Sunday: Marcus Stroman vs. Kutter Crawford (7:10 pm ET)

The traditional Yankees-Red Sox Sunday night game will be started by Stroman, getting his first on-field taste of the rivalry after growing up a Yankee fan. After struggling a bit in a start against the Twins, he bounced back earlier this week in KC, throwing 5.2 shutout fames. Even including the five runs in 4.2 innings he gave up to Minnesota, Stroman still has a sub 2.00 ERA dating back to mid-May.

While the Yankees will miss one half of it, Houck and Crawford have provided a very nice 1-2 punch at the top of Boston’s rotation, and the Yankees will face Crawford in the finale. In 80.1 innings across 14 starts, he’s put up a 3.47 ERA and a 3.56 FIP, striking out nearly a batter every inning. He comes in with just a 2-6 record though, as the Red Sox offense has a habit of not granting him much run support.

The elusive and unheralded milestone Aaron Judge is chasing
www.mlb.com/news/how-aaron-judge-can-reach-400-total-bases-milestone

With every major baseball stat, there's a number that represents a soft "ceiling" of sorts, a total that causes us to raise our eyebrows because it doesn't occur often in the modern game. Think 50 homers for a hitter or 300 strikeouts for a pitcher.

Tucked away amid such traditionally celebrated seasonal accomplishments is a milestone that doesn't get nearly the attention it deserves – even though it's one of the rarest offensive feats in baseball: 400 total bases.

When we talk about flashy stats, total bases rarely get much love. But it's a figure that can tell us quite a bit about a player's overall offensive value.

Perhaps Aaron Judge is the player who can make 400 total bases a more celebrated number. The current Major League leader (174) has been on pace to get there lately, thanks to a red-hot stretch, although a rare hitless game on Thursday against the Royals dropped his pace to 397. The Yankees slugger already has experience with successful single-season milestone pursuits, having set an American League record with 62 home runs in 2022. That same year, Judge collected 391 total bases, which speaks to the grand challenge of the 400 mark.

Consider: There have been the same number of players with 60-homer seasons since 1960 (eight) as there have been players to collect 400 total bases. In all of Major League history, it's happened just 29 times.

Top 10 total bases in a season, all time

Babe Ruth: 457 (1921 Yankees)
Rogers Hornsby: 450 (1922 Cardinals)
Lou Gehrig: 447 (1927 Yankees)
Chuck Klein: 445 (1930 Phillies)
Jimmie Foxx: 438 (1932 A’s)
Stan Musial: 429 (1948 Cardinals)
Sammy Sosa: 425 (2001 Cubs)
Hack Wilson: 423 (1930 Cubs)
Chuck Klein: 420 (1932 Phillies)
Lou Gehrig: 419 (1930 Yankees)
So what makes 400 total bases such a meaningful threshold, and what will be required for someone like Judge – or another of MLB’s top sluggers – to reach it? Here’s a closer look.

The basics

Before we go further, a reminder of what total bases encompasses: It's the total number of bases accumulated via hits. A batter gets one base for a single, two for a double, three for a triple and four for a homer. So, it's a simple calculation: singles + 2x doubles + 3x triples + 4x home runs.

Basically, the better the hitter, the more total bases. A player with a high number of total bases generally hits for average and power, combining strong bat-to-ball skills with the ability to slug. Just as a .300 average is still considered a good hitting season, 300 or more total bases also generally signifies a good year. Get to 350 or more, and that's a great year. But 400? That's next-level stuff.

While four players reached 400 in 2001, it hasn’t happened outside the offense-rich PED era in almost 50 years. (Offensive environment obviously comes into play here. In full seasons in the 30-team era, there is a gap of more than 9,000 total bases MLB-wide, or more than 300 per team, between the most and least total bases recorded.)

Seasons of 400+ TB, since integration (1947)

2001: Barry Bonds, Giants (411)
2001: Luis Gonzalez, D-backs (419)
2001: Todd Helton, Rockies (402)
2001: Sammy Sosa, Cubs (425)
2000: Todd Helton, Rockies (405)
1998: Sammy Sosa, Cubs (416)
1997: Larry Walker, Rockies (409)
1978: Jim Rice, Red Sox (406)
1959: Hank Aaron, Braves (400)
1948: Stan Musial, Cardinals (429)

A few players have come relatively close in recent years.

In 2022, Judge made it to 391 total bases when he blasted 62 homers. In 2017, Charlie Blackmon had 387 for the Rockies. Last season, Ronald Acuña Jr. had 383 for the Braves during his historic 40-70 campaign. But apart from those examples, nobody has truly threatened the 400 mark since Albert Pujols had 394 total bases in 2003.

Total bases leaders over past 10 full, 162-game seasons:

2013: 370 (Chris Davis, Orioles)
2014: 338 (Mike Trout, Angels)
2015: 354 (Joey Votto, Reds)
2016: 359 (Mookie Betts, Red Sox)
2017: 387 (Charlie Blackmon, Rockies)
2018: 358 (J.D. Martinez, Red Sox)
2019: 359 (Rafael Devers, Red Sox)
2021: 363 (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays)
2022: 391 (Aaron Judge, Yankees)
2023: 383 (Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves)

Leader average: 366 total bases

What it takes to reach 400 total bases

1. Good health. This is an obvious point, but like with any counting stat, no player is going to rack up a ton of total bases while being sidelined for any significant length of time. Every previous player to reach 400 played at least 149 games in that season. When Rice did it in 1978, he notched No. 400 in his 160th game.

Judge’s chances: This could be Judge’s biggest challenge. Though he played in 157 games in that historic 2022 season, he’s played in 149 or more just one other time (155 in 2017). Last season, a toe injury and other ailments limited him to just 106. He’s played in all but one of the Yankees’ games so far in 2024.

2. Lots and lots of hits. No hitter has ever reached 400 total bases in a season with a batting average below .308. And outside of Bonds’ outlier 2001 season – in which he set the single-season home run record (73) – every season of 400 total bases has featured at least 189 total hits. All but six have featured more than 200 knocks.

Judge’s chances: The biggest thing in Judge’s favor here is that he’s becoming a more complete hitter. His hit total has grown every time he’s played anywhere close to a full season. The 177 hits he had in 2022, a season in which he played 157 games, were easily the most of his career, besting the 158 hits in 148 games he had in 2021. When he’s been able to maintain a steady groove over a full season, with limited interruptions, the hits have come. But it might take a new career high for him to reach 400 total bases.

3. Land lots of extra-base hits. Historically speaking, a player’s hits need to go for extra bases about 40 percent of the time or more. But even then, there are no guarantees, because the slugging breakdown will require nuance.

Consider Rice's 1978 season, in which he hit .315. He had 213 hits, of which 86 — or 40 percent — went for extra bases. The breakdown: 46 homers, 15 triples, 25 doubles and 127 singles. The homers obviously did a lot of the heavy lifting, but Rice doesn't reach the 400 total bases threshold without those 15 triples or the high number of singles.

Then there's Helton's 2001 season. He hit just two triples but had 49 homers, 54 doubles and 92 singles. In 1937, Joe Medwick hit just 31 homers, but had 56 doubles, 10 triples and 140 singles.

In other words, there's no one way to get there. But a strong mix of hit types is essential, and at least two of the extra-base categories need to be substantial.

Judge’s chances: This is where he fell short in 2022, because although he had a substantial homer total, his other extra-base hit totals were ordinary (28 doubles, no triples). This year, though? He already has a triple and 21 doubles, putting him on pace for 50. Judge has a shot to join Albert Belle (1995) as the only players with a 50-homer, 50-double season, and it’s the latter number that might hold the key to his chances to reach 400 total bases.

Judge's hard contact is a powerful fuel

Judge came closer to 400 total bases than anyone has in a while in 2022, and he was actually on pace to get there for a long time. But even a mild cooldown can be enough to wreck the pursuit of 400, and Judge ultimately fell short in large part because of his performance in August, a month in which he had just 11 extra-base hits and 26 total hits.

But Judge is at it again in 2024, hitting for average and power, in large part because he continues to hit the ball really hard. His average exit velocity is 96.8 mph, which is even higher than it was in 2022 (95.9 mph), and is in the top 1 percent in baseball. So naturally, his hard-hit percentage of 62.7 is also among the best in the game.

Judge has also cut down on strikeouts in recent seasons compared with earlier in his career. His 24.7 percent strikeout rate would be the lowest of his career, and his 31.5 percent whiff rate is also among his lowest ever.

That increase in contact has led to more hits. Since 2021, when he hit a then-career-high .287, Judge has seen his batting average rise when he’s played a full, healthy season. He hit .311 in 2022 and finished second in the AL batting race (five percentage points from a Triple Crown). After a significant dip during his injury-shortened 2023 season (.267), he’s back above .300 again in 2024 – which would be a significant contributor to his quest for 400 total bases.

So who else has a chance to get there?

Given what it usually takes to reach 400 total bases, the number of active players who could potentially get there at some point is small. But here are four non-Judge candidates.

Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers

Ohtani was on pace to reach 400 total bases last season, when he won his second MVP award, but fell off late when injuries kept him out of the lineup and limited him to just 135 games. He didn't play at all after Sept. 3 and finished with an AL-leading 325 total bases.

But Ohtani’s ever-impressive ability to sting the ball all over the field for a strong distribution of hit types is reason enough to expect that he’ll flirt with the 400 total again. He’s averaged 41 homers, 27 doubles, seven triples and 74 singles over the past three seasons, so the ingredients are certainly there, provided he stays healthy.

Bobby Witt Jr., Royals

Witt has established himself as an extra-base machine. Last season, for example, they accounted for 39 percent of his hit total – right around the threshold to have a real shot at 400 total bases.

But it’s not just that. Witt has become a more complete hitter each year. His average has climbed steadily, as have his power numbers. And his elite speed allows him to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples (see his MLB-leading 11 triples last season), boosting that total bases number along the way.

It’s a perfect recipe to chase 400.

Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves

When healthy, Acuña is perhaps the most dynamic player in baseball. His combination of power and speed makes for excellent slugging numbers, and a lot of hits. But staying healthy has been a challenge.

Aside from the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Acuña has averaged just 113 games per season. But he’s also shown that anything close to a full, healthy season usually leads to MVP-level production.

During Acuña’s 40-70 season in 2023, there was talk of him potentially chasing 50-50. Much like with Ohtani, it would seem unwise to limit the ceiling of a healthy Acuña. Had he reached 50 homers last year, his total bases would’ve been 419.

Gunnar Henderson, Orioles

Henderson’s power-speed combo is an under-discussed part of his game. He’s shown that he has plenty of home run pop, but he’s also displayed an ability to leg out extra bases – and this holds the potential for the type of hit diversity needed to reach 400 total bases.

His nine triples in 2023 were tied for third most in baseball, and he’s well on his way to reaching or passing that total this season.

Though he’ll need to hit for a higher average than he’s shown so far (.261 career), his overall 2024 on-pace numbers are high enough to keep in the 400 total bases conversation.

Should Judge or any of these guys make a real run at 400 this season, it would probably go mostly unnoticed or at least unheralded among the majority of fans. There's nothing historically romantic about total bases, after all. But, given the rarity, it would be a mighty impressive accomplishment and worthy of as much attention and praise as any of baseball's other celebrated chases.

SSTN: The Big Story –

Gerrit Cole pitched 4.1 innings in his minor league rehab game, striking out 10. He will be joining the Yankees soon. Think of the rotation they will have with Cole, Luis Gil, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, and Nestor Cortes. By the time Cole rejoins the team, they should have well over 50 wins already. Nothing is guaranteed but, by accumulating wins and building up momentum now, the Yankees will put themselves in a much better position heading into the playoffs.

We are midway through June and the Yankees already have 50 wins. If they maintain this pace, they will have 68 wins going into the All-Star break. They could conceivably have more wins by the middle of August than they did all last year. To make this a truly special season, the Yankees need to win the last game on the Major League Baseball schedule for this season. Again, this will mean nothing if they can't win the big games in the postseason. What the Yankees are doing now is terrific but in order for it to have any real significance, it needs to be maintained throughout the season and all the way until the last game of the year.

Brendan Kuty: Michael Tonkin

His story from Japan to Long Island trimming palm trees to Tijuana to DR to back to the majors.

New York Post | Steve Serby: Luis Gil has gone from being demoted to Triple-A camp in spring training to a serious candidate to start the All-Star Game for the AL in under three months, and he sat down to reflect on that meteoric rise. He credited the instruction and advice he has received from Matt Blake and Gerrit Cole as instrumental in his maturation this season. He also shared how the adversity of recovering from Tommy John surgery sharpened his mentality on the mound and how his two-year-old daughter is the primary motivating factor that drives him to excel every day.