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Post by kaybli on Apr 16, 2024 15:47:26 GMT -5
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Post by kaybli on Apr 16, 2024 16:45:42 GMT -5
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Post by qwik3457bb on Apr 16, 2024 17:37:02 GMT -5
Yusei Kikuchi starts tonight for the Jays. He's a good lefty #4-type starter and he had by far the best year of his MLB career last season, winning more games than in any other season, and also the lowest ERA of his career. His was 11-6 in 32 starts, with an ERA of 3.86. In 167 2/3 innings, he gave up 165, 78 runs 72 earned, 27 HR, 48 BB and K'd 181. His WHIP was also a career-best, 1.270.
In his first 3 starts this year, he's pitched very well, though he hasn't yet won a game. In 15 2/3 innings, he's allowed 13 hits, 4 runs, given up 1 HR and 7 BB, and struck out 20. His ERA so far is 2.30, and his WHIP is 1.277.
He's pitched a good amount against the Yanks in his career, and he has a very good record doing that: This will be his 12th start against the Yanks, and his in his prior 11 starts plus two relief appearances, he's 4-3 with 4 no-decision and an ERA of 3.24. In 58 1/3 innings, he's allowed 49 hits, 22 runs, 21 earned, 8 HR, 24 BB with 56 K. His WHIP against the Yanks is 1.251, which is better than he best season in that regard.
Recently he's been even better. Over 2022-24 he's made 7 starts against the Yanks, the first one was 4/24/22 and the Yanks got to him for 3 runs, 2 earned in 3 1/3 innings and hung a 4-0 loss on him. Since that game, in 6 starts against the Yanks over 2022-24, he's 3-0 with 3 no-decisions, and in those starts, has pitched 31 2/3 innings, allowing just 20 hits, 8 runs, all earned, 4HR, and 8 BB while striking out 36. His ERA for these five starts is just 2.27, and his WHIP is a very low 0.88. In his most recent start against the Yanks, he threw 5 1/3 innings of shutout ball in the series at the Stadium tens days or so ago, giving up 4 hits, 2 BB and K'ing 7.
The career quadruple slash line of Yankees' hitter vs. Kikuchi is .229/.314/.397/.711.
Repertoire: Fangraphs' Pitch Type table shows that Kikuchi has stopped throwing his splitter this year and has replaced it with a changeup, but that could be a coding error in the statcast pitch recording. His off-speed was recorded as a splitter in all five MLS seasons before this, as he had success last year, he probably hasn't dropped the splitter for a change, but we'll see tonight. Otherwise, he's a 4-pitch lefty: FB at 95 thrown almost half the time, curve at 84 through about 24% of the time, slider at 89 thrown about 19% of the time, and "change" at 87 thrown about 9% of the time.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Apr 16, 2024 17:42:10 GMT -5
Carlos Rodon starts for the Yanks. After two extremely successful years in which he finished top 5 in the Cy Young voting (one in the AL, one in the NL; one in a pitcher's park, one in a hitter's park; one for a team that won a division title, and one for team that wound up at .500, well out of the playoff hunt), he had a season which I believe fits Bill James' description of the Power Pitcher's Mid-Career Crisis; that is, the season when a starter who's dominated on overpowering stuff for several seasons, losses just enough stuff to become hittable, which in turn strains his command as he tries overthrowing to compensate, which in turn leads to a collapse season, as he can't blow the ball by hitters, nor can he finesses them (he doesn't know how). Combined with possible "can't pitch in the Bronx" syndrome as well as trying to overcome multiple injuries' that knocked him out of action for long stretches, Rodon's 2023 was a colossal disaster, by far his worst season except maybe 2020 where he was limited to just 7 2/3 innings.
So how has Rodon reacted to this? From my viewpoint (and only mine), it seems that Rodon is trying to turn himself into a "pitcher" in two ways. The first way is by using his secondary pitches more. In 2021 and 2022, the two Cy Young candidate season, he relied heavily on his upper 90's FB and slider, throwing them about 90% of the time. He used his curve and change, but only rarely, perhaps 5 pitches total per start. This year, as all Yankees starters seem to under Blake, he's added a cutter, and it's become his 3rd pitch. He still uses the change and curve, but they're still rare. He's also cut the use of his FB and slider to make room for the cutter.
The second way is to try to learn from the Cole "School". In recent seasons, Cole has sat 95-6-7 through most of his starts, saving his 98-99-100 fastball for knockout pitches in high leverage spots. Rodon appears to be trying to work this into his game. He's been sitting at 93-5 with his FB, and only using his 96-8 for key spots in games, but also for "emptying the tank" in his final innings. Using it that way when he's running out of gas has meant flying open and missing high and arm side with most of them, so he hasn't quite worked this out, but kudos for him for at least trying to learn and grow from his failure last year. A lot of once-elite starters simply decline in stuff without ever trying to change their approach, until they fade into irrelevancy. King Felix Hernandez, it seems to me, was one of those. For guys who tried, and to a certain extent, succeeded, you have Tom Seaver, C.C. Sabathia and Mike Mussina. I think the odds are worse than 50-50 that it will eventually work, but he has to try to change something after last year.
This season, in 3 starts, he's 1-0 with a deceptive 2.87 ERA (Yes, it was listed as a 1.72 ERA, but I think a scoring decision was changed and 2 of his 5 runs allowed went from unearned to earned.) The ERA is still deceptively good because he's put A LOT of runners on base. In 15 2/3 innings, he's allowed 17 hits 7 BB and 2 HR for 5 runs allowed while striking out just. For those who believe in such things, Rodon's FIP is 4.57, which I think is a truer reading of how well he's pitched so far this year. His 'strand rate" this year, the number of runners he's put on base that haven't scored is 95%, a preposterously high percentage, which is a product of very small sample size and very good luck. The typical MLB #2-3 starter will have a strand rate of between 70-75%, so if his strand rate were normal, he'd have allowed 5 more runs, and his ERA would be about as bad as his FIP.
Against the Blue Jays, Rodon has made 4 starts. He's 1-0 with 3 no-decision, and in 23 1/3 innings, he's allowed 22 hits, 7 runs, 2 HR and 6 BB, while K'ing 25. I should note that he hasn't faced the Jays since 2021, and this is his first start against them for the Yanks. The Jays' team quadruple slash line vs. Rodon is .236/.349/.403/.752.
Repertoire: Rodon is averaging about 95.5 on the FB this season, about the same as the last 3 seasons, and is throwing it slightly less, about 57%. His slider usage is down so far, from 29% last year to 21%, and the average velocity is up a tick to 86-7. His 3rd pitch is the new cutter. He throws it 15% of the time and averages 92 with it. The change is up from 4% to 6%, and it's a tick slower at 84. He's throwing the curve about 2 mph harder so far, but he's only using it about twice a start.
It will be interesting to see how the good Jays' lineup game-plans against the "new" Rodon.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Apr 16, 2024 17:43:13 GMT -5
Yankees' lineup vs. Kikuchi:
Volpe is 2-7 vs. Kikuchi with a GIDP
Soto is 0-3 with 1 K
Judge is 4-20 with 2 HR, 4 RBI, 6 BB and 9 K
Stanton is 1 for 16 with 1 BB, 8 K, and 1 HBP. So, naturally, Aaron Analysts are batting him 4th tonight.
Rizzo is 1-12 with a double, 2 BB, 2 K and a GIDP
Torres is 10-25 with 2 doubles, a HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K and 1 GIDP
Verdugo is 6-15 with 2 doubles, 2 K and a HBP
Trevino is 1-6 with a solo HR, 2 K and 2 GIDP
Cabrera is 1-5 with a solo HR and 1 K
Jays' lineup vs. Rodon:
Springer is 1-15 vs. a double and 4 K
Guerrero is 2-4 with 2 BB
Bichette is 2-6 with a double and 1 K
Turner is 3-13 with a double, 2 RBI, 3 BB and 5 K
Schneider, Jansen, Clement and Falefa have never faced Rodon
Varsho is 1-2 with a K.
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Post by chiyankee on Apr 16, 2024 17:43:32 GMT -5
We must get that awful taste of losing out of our mouths. Need a win.
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Post by chiyankee on Apr 16, 2024 17:50:07 GMT -5
The more important question is who gets taken out of the lineup to make room for DJ?
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Post by qwik3457bb on Apr 16, 2024 17:52:41 GMT -5
Yanks come into this game at 12-5, 1 1/2 up on the O's, 3 up on the Red Sox, Jays and Rays, all of whom are 9-8 on the season, so for the moment, the entire AL East is over .500.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Apr 16, 2024 17:57:11 GMT -5
Twins-O's is bottom 1st in Baltimore, Chris Paddack vs. Grayson Rodriguez.
Guardians are in Fenway for the 2nd game of that series starting about 15 minutes from now: Tanner Bibee vs. Garrett Whitlock
Angels-Rays is just underway in Tampa, Aaron Civale vs. Jose Soriano.
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Post by azbob643 on Apr 16, 2024 18:00:01 GMT -5
The more important question is who gets taken out of the lineup to make room for DJ? As I've previously posted, DJ may have a hard time reclaiming his job at 3B. We may see him eased in at 1B to give Rizzo some time off. |
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Post by qwik3457bb on Apr 16, 2024 18:04:35 GMT -5
The more important question is who gets taken out of the lineup to make room for DJ? As DJ can't catch, it appears to be Cabrera, unfortunately. |
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Post by qwik3457bb on Apr 16, 2024 18:05:27 GMT -5
The more important question is who gets taken out of the lineup to make room for DJ? As I've previously posted, DJ may have a hard time reclaiming his job at 3B. We may see him eased in at 1B to give Rizzo some time off. Might get a few games at 1st vs. Lefties, but DJ hasn't really hit the last two years, either. |
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Post by rizzuto on Apr 16, 2024 18:07:48 GMT -5
Yusei
I only hear what I want to
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Post by qwik3457bb on Apr 16, 2024 18:07:54 GMT -5
Blue Jays take the field. Kikuchi throwing his warmups.
Game underway.
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Post by azbob643 on Apr 16, 2024 18:08:05 GMT -5
As I've previously posted, DJ may have a hard time reclaiming his job at 3B. We may see him eased in at 1B to give Rizzo some time off. Might get a few games at 1st vs. Lefties, but DJ hasn't really hit the last two years, either. Rizzo may be hurt...back issues. Has he sat at all this year? |
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