The Official NYY Prospect Thread

Fully agree Uehara. Avelino has made an adjustment to his swing plane that has allowed him to moderate his extreme ground ball rates. Basically this year he is averaging a 49% ground ball rate after a couple of years at 60%. As a consequence he is now dbetter average with much more power. If you add his excellent middle of the infield defense and plus speed then you clearly have a keeper.

Thanks gowin! I enjoy these scouting reports very much! Keep up the good work!

Hold on to him! Behind the weak numbers there is very solid improvement in his change-up that is actually becoming a third above average pitch. Also let’s remember that his fastball velocity is consistently improving as he builds arm strenght following his injury. It was more in the 90 - 91mph at the start of the season and now is sitting 93 - 94mph, still a couple of ticks below his usual range. I still believe Adams can become at the very list a solid bottom of the rotation innings eater and a middle of the rotation starter if things go right. Selling now would be clearly selling at a low.

Abiatal Avelino was on base 5 times yesterday as he went 4 for 4 with a double, 3 singles and a walk. He is now hitting 314 / 367 / 496 with an OPS of .863 for the season in 274 at bats split across the two highest levels of the minors. His 11 HRs and 20 stolen bases (with an excellent success rate of 83%) are basically on track for 20+ HRs and just below 40 SBs for the full minor league season. To put the 23 years old’s numbers into context only 3 other (qualified) shortstops have delivered so far a betters OPS than him in the all minors.

Avelino’s numbers in AA are even more impressive: 350 / 404 / 583 good for a .987 OPS. The Domenican ranks amongst the very best hitters in the Eastern League where he has played the majority of the games this year (at least 150 at bats). He ranks third in batting average (behind just top prospect Vladimir Guerrero and Cole Sturgeon who is 26 yrs old), fifth in OPS, and fifth in slugging (.566). He also ranks sixth in the League in terms of HR per fly ball ratio at 20.9%.

Avelino’s hitting results this year have been driven by an adjustment in his swing plane that has resulted in a much lower ground ball rate. His GB% this season has been below 50% after hitting over 60% ground balls in every prior season in his career. This improved ability to put the ball in the air coupled with a much more aggressive approach at the plate when he gets the pitch he is looking for have driven the power outburst. Its not often that a player is able to deliver a significant improvement in both his average and power numbers simultaneously and that is exactly what the right handed hitter has done so far.

What allows Avelino to be effective whilst being more aggressive is that he has well above average pitch recognition, excellent bat to ball skills and a willingness to hit to all sides of the field. As a consequence he can be effective even when he falls behind in the count (.833 OPS when behind in AA, although he did struggle in this area in AAA to be fair). Not surprisingly he has been able to keep his K rate below 20% (as he did at every stop in the minors) in spite of swinging more aggressively.

The reason why Avelino a top prospect in my point of view is that in addition to the power / speed combo he offers above average defense at shortstop. He has a cannon for an arm, soft hands and solid range giving him all the necessary tools to stick at the position. He also offers some defensive versatility. This year he has played the majority of his games at SS (56 times) but he has also played some 2B (9 times), 3B (3) and even right field (1).

The infielders’ profile does come with its fair share of risk though. Although his defense amd speed have always been thete the hit ability and power have only played recently in games. Also in AAA Avelino has been good but much less impressive. His batting average (.261) and power (.369 slugging) have been just ok. So the question is consistency. Will Avelino be able to translate his tools into production at the Major League level?

The above mentioned tools give Avelino a very minimum floor of a utility type; one that could offer excellent defense, hit for a decent average at the very bottom of the order and use his speed on the basepaths to act as a second lead-off type of player. However if he can sustain the improvements in the hit and power tools the ceiling is one of a starting shortstop with above average defense, plus speed, above average power for the position and an average or better hit tool.

Next year Avelino will be Rule 5 eligible (and as well Kyle Holder and Park but that should be subject of another post). There is simply not going to be enough space in the roster to protect him and as well Torreyes, Wade and Estrada. I think it is easy to argue that the tools and upside are just too intriguing for Avelino to be left unprotected.

It seems clear that Avelino is wasting his time at Trenton. I'd like to see the Yanks get Drury on the big league roster and Avelino moved up to Scranton where he can split time with Wade & Toe in AAA infield. Toe, meanwhile is hitting under .200 at Scranton, I guess he didn't take the demotion too well.

Wade has had a great deal more experience in the OF, which adds to his value. Any insights as to why Avelino has been so rarely employed in the OF? It would seem he has the speed to handle outfield play. In fact to me the one element of his game that stands out over Wade's is his base-stealing acumen, with a career 184/54 SB/CS (77.3%). I don't care for Wade as a base theif, it seems he doesn't read pitchers well with a career 141/52 SB/CS (73.0%). Wade seemed to have improved upon that the past two seasons, but this season he's 9/6 (60%). He seems to have the speed to climb closer to the 80.0% mark.

Of course, with Wade being on the 40-man, I would suspect that if he doesn't wind up in trade package he will see at least one more opportunity in NY this September, if not before. His biggest obstacle at this point appears to be Brandon Drury. If Drury takes a lock on the utility position I would expect we'll soon see Walker banished, but that won't likely open a spot for Wade.

I agree with chiyankee that the first step should be to get Avelino to Scranton and see how he handles AAA pitching. If there is a negative, I think he's still a bit error-prone for a 23 year-old. Perhaps he's trying for the excellent play too often instead of holding the ball or going for one sure out???

All those are very good points Inger. Avelino is clearly the better base stealer in my point of view and also the power projects much better than Wade. Wade is the more steady player both inter,s of defense and as well hitting. That’s why I say that Avelino has the better tools but Wade has been much more consistent. In any case I also agree that the Yankees should promote Avelino to AAA and see how he does against better competition.