Post by qwik3457bb on Sept 6, 2024 13:00:28 GMT -5
Didn't see a game thread, so I'll start one with the usual series preview...
The Yankees travel to Chicago for the 2nd time in the last few weeks, only this time, to play a much tougher opponent, the Cubs. The series happens at a bad time for the Yanks, they've lost 6 of their last 8 and are 30-38 since mid-June. The Cubs just lost a series to the Pirates, but won 6 in a row and 9 of 10 before that, and are 33-20 since just after the All-Star Break. Chicago is currently 2nd in the NL Central at 72-68, 9 games behind the Brewers, and still 4 games behind the Mets (who are also hot) as the Wild-Card runner-up and 4 1/2 behind the Braves for the last NL Wild Card slot.
The Cubs' run differential is now +57 on the year, when they were 39-48, it was -34. Not only have the Cubs been winning, they've been winning by blowouts. They were scoring just over 4 runs a game before, 5.4 runs per game since. In this most recent stretch where they've gone 10-3, they're scoring almost 9 runs a game. Not the best time for the Yankees stumbling pitching staff to be facing a hot lineup, especially the crumbling bullpen. It's true that the hot streak has come against the Marlins, the Pirates (twice) and the Nationals, but the Yanks faced teams just as bad, and didn't do as well. The Cubs pitching has also improved significantly, 4.5 runs a game before the 33-20 extended stretch of excellent play, 3.7 runs a game after. Among those last 10 wins are blowouts of 14-2, 18-8, 14-1 and 12-0.
The overall team offensive numbers this season aren't great, so you can imagine how bad they must have been before the offense got hot. Right now the Cuba are 7th in the NL in runs, 10th in HR, 5th in steals, 10th in BAVG, 7th in OBA, 10th in slugging and 8th in OPS. The pitching staff is 8th in the NL in HR allowed, 6th in BB allowed (largely due to Shota Imanaga), 8th in strikeouts, and 4th in ERA. The starting rotation is better than the Yankee rotation overall, but the Yanks get two big breaks. Imanaga just pitched Wednesday, and is going to miss this series so he can open the series against a red-hot Dodgers team in LA, and their other top starter, Justin Steele, was put on the IL on Tuesday with left elbow tendinitis. So not only are Yanks not facing the Cubs' best two starters, but they also don't have to face a top lefty in Steele, who's been one of the top 10 starters in the NL the last 2 1/2 seasons. On the offense, hot hitters the last few days include: Ian Happ, 7-21 with 6 RBI, Seiya Suzuki, 6-18 with 3 runs scored, Dansby Swanson, 11-22 with 3 doubles, 2 HR, 6 runs and 6 RBI, Nico Hoerner, 8-21 with 6 runs scored, and Pete Crow-Armstrong, 6-18 with a HR, 5 runs and 4 RBI. All that includes the game where Skenes shut them down a couple of days ago.
The Cubs dumped their failing closer, Hector Neris, and have moved to sort of a committee with rookie Porter Hodge currently the ad hoc closer. He's gotten 3 saves since they dumped Neris, and is having a brilliant season: 1.75 ERA, 45 K's and just 17 hits and 1 HR allowed in 36 innings. Hodge hasn't been scored on in 12 games and 13 innings, 5 hits, 5 BB and 19 K's, 3 wins, 2 saves, 4 holds. Just about every reliever currently on the Cubs roster has an ERA under 3.00: Miller 2.48, Thompson 2.95, Roberts 2.60, Jays' reclamation project Nate Pearson 2.20, Smyly 2.83. The caveat there is that most of those ERA are of limited innings, 3 or 4 of them have less than 20 innings with the Cubs. The Cubs are 3rd in the NL in team Defensive Efficiency Rating, but their current .703 is just a bit better than than the Yanks .700 (keep in mind the Yanks DER has been falling since the first 1/3 of the season; in fact, it was .702 when I looked at it just a few days ago, and had to drop because the Rangers have gotten a ton of hits off them the last two games). The team BIS Defensive Runs Saved is 6th in the NL at +18 runs.
The Cubs are hot, the Yanks are cold, and the last time the Yanks faced a similar scenario was when they went into Philly to face a very good Phillies team, but actually, the Phils had lost 6 of 9 before the Yanks got there, so it's not really that similar.
The Yankees travel to Chicago for the 2nd time in the last few weeks, only this time, to play a much tougher opponent, the Cubs. The series happens at a bad time for the Yanks, they've lost 6 of their last 8 and are 30-38 since mid-June. The Cubs just lost a series to the Pirates, but won 6 in a row and 9 of 10 before that, and are 33-20 since just after the All-Star Break. Chicago is currently 2nd in the NL Central at 72-68, 9 games behind the Brewers, and still 4 games behind the Mets (who are also hot) as the Wild-Card runner-up and 4 1/2 behind the Braves for the last NL Wild Card slot.
The Cubs' run differential is now +57 on the year, when they were 39-48, it was -34. Not only have the Cubs been winning, they've been winning by blowouts. They were scoring just over 4 runs a game before, 5.4 runs per game since. In this most recent stretch where they've gone 10-3, they're scoring almost 9 runs a game. Not the best time for the Yankees stumbling pitching staff to be facing a hot lineup, especially the crumbling bullpen. It's true that the hot streak has come against the Marlins, the Pirates (twice) and the Nationals, but the Yanks faced teams just as bad, and didn't do as well. The Cubs pitching has also improved significantly, 4.5 runs a game before the 33-20 extended stretch of excellent play, 3.7 runs a game after. Among those last 10 wins are blowouts of 14-2, 18-8, 14-1 and 12-0.
The overall team offensive numbers this season aren't great, so you can imagine how bad they must have been before the offense got hot. Right now the Cuba are 7th in the NL in runs, 10th in HR, 5th in steals, 10th in BAVG, 7th in OBA, 10th in slugging and 8th in OPS. The pitching staff is 8th in the NL in HR allowed, 6th in BB allowed (largely due to Shota Imanaga), 8th in strikeouts, and 4th in ERA. The starting rotation is better than the Yankee rotation overall, but the Yanks get two big breaks. Imanaga just pitched Wednesday, and is going to miss this series so he can open the series against a red-hot Dodgers team in LA, and their other top starter, Justin Steele, was put on the IL on Tuesday with left elbow tendinitis. So not only are Yanks not facing the Cubs' best two starters, but they also don't have to face a top lefty in Steele, who's been one of the top 10 starters in the NL the last 2 1/2 seasons. On the offense, hot hitters the last few days include: Ian Happ, 7-21 with 6 RBI, Seiya Suzuki, 6-18 with 3 runs scored, Dansby Swanson, 11-22 with 3 doubles, 2 HR, 6 runs and 6 RBI, Nico Hoerner, 8-21 with 6 runs scored, and Pete Crow-Armstrong, 6-18 with a HR, 5 runs and 4 RBI. All that includes the game where Skenes shut them down a couple of days ago.
The Cubs dumped their failing closer, Hector Neris, and have moved to sort of a committee with rookie Porter Hodge currently the ad hoc closer. He's gotten 3 saves since they dumped Neris, and is having a brilliant season: 1.75 ERA, 45 K's and just 17 hits and 1 HR allowed in 36 innings. Hodge hasn't been scored on in 12 games and 13 innings, 5 hits, 5 BB and 19 K's, 3 wins, 2 saves, 4 holds. Just about every reliever currently on the Cubs roster has an ERA under 3.00: Miller 2.48, Thompson 2.95, Roberts 2.60, Jays' reclamation project Nate Pearson 2.20, Smyly 2.83. The caveat there is that most of those ERA are of limited innings, 3 or 4 of them have less than 20 innings with the Cubs. The Cubs are 3rd in the NL in team Defensive Efficiency Rating, but their current .703 is just a bit better than than the Yanks .700 (keep in mind the Yanks DER has been falling since the first 1/3 of the season; in fact, it was .702 when I looked at it just a few days ago, and had to drop because the Rangers have gotten a ton of hits off them the last two games). The team BIS Defensive Runs Saved is 6th in the NL at +18 runs.
The Cubs are hot, the Yanks are cold, and the last time the Yanks faced a similar scenario was when they went into Philly to face a very good Phillies team, but actually, the Phils had lost 6 of 9 before the Yanks got there, so it's not really that similar.
