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Post by kaybli on Oct 17, 2024 12:25:45 GMT -5
Note the early start today. Let's go Schmidt! Let's go Yankees! Lineups to come.  |
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Post by chiyankee on Oct 17, 2024 12:35:57 GMT -5
Ugh..stupid early start, I'm going to miss most of this one.  |
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Post by kaybli on Oct 17, 2024 12:51:57 GMT -5
Ugh..stupid early start, I'm going to miss most of this one. I might miss the start. Lame. |
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Post by chiyankee on Oct 17, 2024 12:55:14 GMT -5
Ugh..stupid early start, I'm going to miss most of this one. I might miss the start. Lame. It's the reverse tomorrow, with Dodgers/Mets starting early, then Yanks/Cleveland. |
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Post by chiyankee on Oct 17, 2024 12:57:15 GMT -5
The lineup is out but I can't access Twitter from work to post it. Rizzo and Wells are grabbing some bench, replaced by Berti and Trevino.
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Post by kaybli on Oct 17, 2024 13:02:23 GMT -5
The lineup is out but I can't access Twitter from work to post it. Rizzo and Wells are grabbing some bench, replaced by Berti and Trevino. |
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Post by cocopugg on Oct 17, 2024 13:25:22 GMT -5
I hate the time of the start for this game, and it's all because they want the Mets-Dodgers game on at 8PM so the west coast fans will get to see the game at 5PM their time...so bottom line, both east coast AND west coast fans will get screwed missing the start of the game, while caught in rush hour traffic coming home from work! Great work MLB!
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Post by desousa on Oct 17, 2024 13:27:38 GMT -5
I hate the time of the start for this game, and it's all because they want the Mets-Dodgers game on at 8PM so the west coast fans will get to see the game at 5PM their time...so bottom line, both east coast AND west coast fans will get screwed missing the start of the game, while caught in rush hour traffic coming home from work! Great work MLB! Tomorrow the Yanks have the late game. |
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Post by desousa on Oct 17, 2024 13:28:52 GMT -5
The lineup is out but I can't access Twitter from work to post it. Rizzo and Wells are grabbing some bench, replaced by Berti and Trevino. I don't mind the moves. Wells isn't good against lefties. |
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Post by JEGnj on Oct 17, 2024 13:40:51 GMT -5
Not really excited to see Trevino in there but when I say that he usually does hit.
Rizzo must be hurting to give Berti the start.
Not must win but really would like to take the game and just need one more to move one.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 17, 2024 15:34:21 GMT -5
Down 2-0 in the ALCS, the Guardians turn to a veteran lefty, Matthew Boyd, to try to get back in the series. Boyd started against the Yanks in the series at the Stadium in August and got a no-decision, so there’s no need to review his baseball biography. In that series, he started the opener and it was just his 2nd start this season. In the 6 starts between that one and the end of the season, he was outstanding in the first 3, giving up 1 run in 6 innings in each, before trailing off with three poor starts, pitching a total of 11 innings and giving up 9 runs, 5 earned. Over those that 6 starts, he was 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA, but struck out 38 and walked just 9 in 29 innings, with just 2 HR allowed. On the season as a whole, Boyd was 2-2 in 8 starts, with a 2.72 ERA. In 39 2/3 innings, he allowed 32 hits, 16 runs, 12 earned, 4 HR, and 13 BB, while striking out 46. His WHIP was an excellent 1.134.
Boyd also went unscored on the two starts against Detroit in the ALDS, but the first (Game 2) was just 4 2/3 innings, 4 hits, 2 BB and 5K, and the Tigers won it in the 9th on the Carpenter 3-run off Clase. In the “all-hands-on-deck” deciding game 5. Boyd pitched brilliantly, but only two innings, giving up one hit and one walk, but striking out 5. Manager Vogt was extremely active and brought in top set-up man Smith for the 3rd inning, one of 7 relievers the Guardians would use to cover the last 21 outs. Thanks largely to the Thomas grand slam off of Skubal in the 5th, the Guardians went on to win the game, 7-3, winning the series. In the two games combined, Boyd threw 6 2/3 shutout innings, allowing 5 hits, 3 walks and striking out 10. Boyd’s only other postseason experience was throwing 1/3 of an inning in relief in game 3 of the 2022 ALDS against the Astros, giving up a hit and a BB but no runs. The Astros beat the Mariners 1-0 to sweep that series, before sweeping the Yanks in the ALCS, and winning the World Series from the Phillies in 6 games.
Against the Yanks, Boyd is 1-3 with a 5.17 ERA in 6 starts. He’s pitched 31 1/3 innings, allowing 29 hits, 22 runs, 18 earned, 7 HR, 16 BB and struck out 29. The Yanks hit him hard one start a year in each of 2016, 2017 and 2018, but pitched much better in two starts against them in 2019. In his 2nd start of the season against the Yanks at the Stadium in early April, Boyd went 6 1/3 innings, giving up just 5 hits and 1 run, walking 3 and striking out 13, getting a no-decision in a 2-1 Tigers’ win. In September, he gave up 4 runs (2 earned) in 5 innings, with 4 walks and 3 hits, 2 of them HR, and took the L in a 10-4 Yankees rout of Detroit. That was the last game Boyd pitched vs. the Yanks until the game at the Stadium in August, in which he lasted 5 1/3, giving up 4 hits, 3 earned runs, walking 4, and striking out 2. The 2 home runs he gave up that day were back-to-back by Soto and Judge in the 1st; he also gave up a RBI double to Volpe in the 4th. But that was the day Luis Gil was lifted with nobody out in the 4th, having walked 6 and given up 3 earned runs, and the game stayed 3-3 until Cleveland exploded for 6 in the 10th off Mayza and Tonkin, winning 9-5. Boyd got a no-decision. The Yankees’ team quadruple slash line off Boyd is: .236/.319/.472/.791.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 17, 2024 15:34:42 GMT -5
Repertoire: Boyd had made only one start before that game for Cleveland so there was no real pitch data on him. He’s made 7 regular season and two post-season starts since, so there’s a lot more data now. Boyd is now a 5-pitch lefty who doesn’t throw hard: 4-seamer, change, slider, sinker, and curve. The 4-seamer gets less rise than average, but runs in hard on lefties, almost but not quite top 10% in MLB in that category. The change gets average drop but well above average tail away from righties. The slider gets well above average drop, but well below average break down and in on righties. The curve gets below average drop, but above average break away from lefties and serves as a poor man’s sweeper, as he uses it almost exclusively against right-hand hitters (52 to 2 in 54 total curves this season). The sinker gets below average drop and slightly above average tail in on lefties. In run values, the change is neutral, the curve is a small plus, the sinker is a sizeable minus per pitch, though he doesn’t use it very often. The 4-seamer is a good-sized plus per pitch, and the slider has been his best in run value per pitch, +2 runs in just 8 starts. In the regular season, the pitch mix was: 4-seamer averaging 92 about 39% of the time, change 81 about 26%, slider 19-80 about 17%, sinker 92 about 10%, and curve 74 about 8%. Almost all the curves were against right-handed hitters, 85-90% of the changeups were against righties as well. His 4-seamer is his most used pitch, and over 85% of them came against righties, which probably means teams try to stack righties in the lineup against him, so it’s not a shock the Yanks are playing Berti today and not Rizzo at 1st, and Trevino at catcher and not Wells. In the two playoff games against the Tigers, the pitch mix in 105 total pitches was: 4-seamer averaging 92-3 about 35% of the time, change 80-1 about 28%, slider 80 about 19%, sinker 91-2 about 10%, and curve 72 about 8%. The short start in game 5 was planned, as he threw harder on his 4-seamer (up 1.2 mph from game 2), the sinker (up 2.2 mph), the slider (up 1.1), the slider (up 1.1), but not the change (down 0.6 mph). With a day’s rest for the bullpen, and Clase not having yet pitched, they might have him do the same thing today to avoid going down 3-0 in the series. Wouldn’t surprise me that if they have the lead late in the game, they might go to Clase for 4, 5, or even 6 outs.
Boyd has always had a high chase rate, but didn’t throw enough total pitches to make that table for 2024. His FB velocity is way below average, bottom 20% in MLB, but the FB spin is well above average. The curve spin is also well below, bottom 25%, and his extension is solidly below average, and has been most seasons of his career. He his average exit velocity is below average in MLB, the barrel rate is slightly below average and the hard hit rate is also slightly below average. The line drive rate was slightly above average in the regular season, but is well below in two starts in the playoff, the ground ball rate was very low and the flyball and popup rates were very high in the regular season, the ground ball rate in his two playoff starts is a rock bottom 21% and the flyball rate is a sky high 64%, and he hasn’t gotten a popup yet. Despite not being able to throw hard, the swinging strike rates in both the regular season and the two playoff games are well above average, but the called strike rate was below average in the regular season, making his CSW average. In the two playoff starts, the called strike rate was above average, and the CSW in 30% so far in the playoffs, a high figure. In luck factors, in the regular season both the BABIP and strand rates were close to average, but the HR/FB rate was way below average. In the playoff games, the BABIP was .357, very high, but the strand rate was 100% (he hasn’t been scored on) and obviously the HR rate is 0, whether per FB or overall. The very low HR/FB in the regular season means that his ERA estimators think his ERA should’ve been about 3.43 rater than 2.72. Luck factors make little sense in just 8 starts in a regular season, they're all but random noise in two playoff starts.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 17, 2024 15:40:56 GMT -5
Playing the Name Game: the name game for that start in August is here:
Name Game from August
To that, I’ll just add a brief history of a Matt who played for the Yanks for a few years, and was part of their transition from misery back to contention, catcher/DH Matt Nokes. In the mid-to-late 80’s, the catcher position on the Yanks was manned by a declining Rick Cerrone, Butch Wynegar, and a couple of years of Don Slaught. Into the void stepped Nokes, right in time for the team’s collapse into non-contention, the infamous Merrill-Dent era. Nokes was a left-hand power hitter with a swing built for the Stadium and the Porch. In his 4 full seasons with the Yanks from 1991-1994, he hit 41 of his 63 homers in the Bronx. In Nokes' rookie year with the Tigers in 1987, he hit 32-89-.287; it was the best season of his career, making the All-Star team, winning a Silver Slugger, finishing 3rd in the MVP voting, and even getting a down-ballot vote for MVP. His hitting dropped off over the next 3 year, partially due to his inability to command the strike zone. He never struck out a lot, but he drew few walks, so was chasing and making contact with pitches out of the zone. He also had trouble hitting against lefties.
In June of 1990, the Yanks traded pitcher Lance McCullers (the father of Lance McCullers, Jr. who tormented the Yanks for the Astros in game 7 of the 2017 ALCS), and pitcher Clay Parker for Nokes. The trade worked out well for the Yanks in 1991, Nokes had a comeback season, hitting .268 with 24 HR and 77 RBI, but the Yanks went 71-91, and were 10th in the AL in team ERA. For the 1992 season, Yankee GM Gene Michael saw Nokes’ weakness and signed up veteran catcher Mike Stanley as a free agent to back up and platoon with Nokes, trying to eliminate that weakness in his game. Stanley gradually took over the starting job because even though he’d never hit for power, he was better defensively, better at handling and receiving pitches and drew more walks than Nokes. Nokes was having a bad season in 1992, hitting just .224 with 22 HR and 59 RBI, hence the increased playing time for Stanley. In 1993, Stanley broke out with a terrific .305-26-84 season, relegating Nokes to backup duty, where he did better in more limited time: .249-10-35 in just 238 PA and 87 starts. In the 1994 strike season, Stanley started 66 games at catcher, Nokes just 14, and 3rd catcher Jim Leyritz was elevated to #2. Manage Buck Showalter spotted him beautifully, and Nokes hit exceedingly well in his very limited play at catcher and DH. He hit .291 and slugged .595, but in just 85 PA, but that was it for his Yankee career. He was granted free agency and signed with the Orioles for 1995, again with the Rockies later that season when the O’s cut him loose, and again with the Brewers for 1996, but his career basically ended when he left the Yanks. He hit a combined .133 for Baltimore and Colorado for 1995 in 60 PA, and never played an inning in the majors or minors for Milwaukee. He played for a couple of seasons in the independent Northern League in 1998 and 1999, played in the Mexican League briefly, and the Indians signed him to a minor league deal for the 2000 season, but he never played an inning in the minors that year. He became a player-coach for one season back in the Northern League before managing Joliet in that league for 2 seasons, 2002 and 2003.
Nokes turns 61 later this month, he now works as an independent “consultation practice for serious hitters”, and also serves as an advisor for software and equipment companies. His highlight as a Yankee may have been catching Jim Abbot’s no-hitter at the Stadium on the day before Labor Day in 1993 (As I’ve mentioned, I was at that game, the only no-hitter I’ve seen in person). On an oddball, scary note, right after Nokes signed that minor league deal with Cleveland, he was forced to make an emergency landing of his private plane on Interstate Highway 15 in San Diego Country, California, on February 19, 2000. Nokes said that what forced him to land was a loss of oil pressure in the engine, and didn’t have time to make it to an airport. Sadly, 16 years later, years after he had sold the plane, the new owner/pilot was forced to try an emergency landing of his own on I-15, and crashed into an SUV in the attempt, killing one of the passengers, and injuring the driver and 3 other passengers as well as himself.
As a much younger fan, I loved the pickup of Nokes and thought it was a good sign that the Yanks were turning back to necessary left-handed power hitters to take advantage of the Porch at home. Nokes was almost like a catcher Oscar Gamble, at least at first. When they picked up Stanley, I thought, OK, maybe Nokes needs some platoon help, as Stanley’s career as a hitter didn’t seem very promising to that point. When Stanley took over the starting job, I was annoyed a bit (mainly because I had Nokes in a fantasy league), but I was wrong, and as usual, Stick Michael was right. The Yanks took off due to Bernie Williams’ career taking off, the trade for Paul O’Neill, and the free agent signings of Wade Boggs and Jimmy Key, and maybe as much as anything else, Buck Showalter coming in as manager and restoring discipline and work on the team. But going with Stanley over Nokes was the right move as it turned out, and it also helped moved the Yanks back to contention, finishing 2nd in the East to the champion Jays, and finishing over .500 for the first time since 1988. They haven’t had a year under .500 since.
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Post by inger on Oct 17, 2024 15:44:45 GMT -5
Boyd is homer-prone. That makes him Yankee-prone…
Let’s prone him. A lot… 🤓
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 17, 2024 15:46:52 GMT -5
Clarke Schmidt takes the mound to try to give the Yanks an overwhelming 3-0 lead in the series. Schmidt’s breakout regular season was interrupted in June by a lat injury that had him on the IL for 3 months, returning in early September. Pitching essentially half a season in 2024, Schmidt went 5-5 with an ERA of 2.85. In 85 1/3 innings, he allowed 71 hits (by far his best H/9 innings rate this year, just 7.5), 31 runs, 27 earned, 8 HR, 30 BB and had 93 K’s. His WHIP was a solid 1.184. His 2.0 bWAR was the best of his career, tied for 7th on the team with Gerrit Cole, who also pithed essentially half a season. In his postseason start against KC in game 3 of the Division Series, Schmidt was sharp for 4 2/3 innings, but the Royals swiftly turned the tables on him with two outs in the 5th and the Yanks up 2-0. Frazier got an infield hit that Volpe knocked down but couldn’t get the out on. Isbel doubled into the LF corner to score Frazier, and Massey hit a drive to the gap in right center. Soto dove to his right, but it got by him to the wall for a game-tying triple, and Schmidt's day was over: 4 2/3 innings, just 71 pitches, 4 hits, 2 runs (earned), 1 BB and 4 K’s. Too bad; 1 out away from qualifying for a win with 5 strong innings, and he couldn’t get there. Aside from that start, Schmidt’s postseason record is 3 mediocre post-season relief appearances against the Guardians and Astros in 2022.
Schmidt has made 3 starts and one relief appearance against Cleveland before today’s game. He’s 1-0 with a 3.52 ERA against them. In 15 1/3 innings, he’s allowed 19 hits, 10 runs, 6 earned, 1 HR, walked 10 and struck out 18, for a terrible WHIP of 1.991. Their team quadruple slash line against Schmidt is :.307/.403/.387/.790. Not great. His last start against them in the series in Cleveland back in April was a decent one: 5 innings, 3 hits, 2 runs, 1 earned, with 5 BB, but also 7 K’s. Schmidt had a 3-0 lead going to the bottom of the 6th, but gave up back to back singles to Kwan and Gimenez to start the inning. Caleb Ferguson came in to get him out of the jam, allowing just 1 runner to score, and Hamilton and Holmes combined for 3 scoreless inning for a 3-1 Yankees win.
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