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Post by anthonyd46 on Oct 23, 2024 6:32:58 GMT -5
kinda surprised that more times writers favored the yankees. i haven't seen any odds, but have to think the dodgers are slight favorites. the dodgers lineup is deeper especially if freeman comes back. they'll provide a bigger test than cleveland. because of the dodgers injuries, think we have better starting but they a better bullpen. if we play our best baseball we can win. judge has to be judge. doubt stanton will be mvp 3 series in a row. the lefty be it wells or jazz has to provide protection for him. and jazz in particular needs to finally start hitting. Yeah I think the Yankees have better starting pitching too. The Dodgers only have three healthy starters and both Yamamoto and Buehler have been on pretty tight leashes because they are still somewhat in the recovery phase from their injuries. And Flaherty has had one good start and two bad ones in the post-season. In 11 games so far the starters have pitched a total of 40 innings. Even allowing for two bullpen games, that's still pretty bad. And speaking of their pen, while I agree it's deeper than the Yankees pen, like Cleveland's it may be getting gassed. Five runs allowed in the pen game Sunday, although four days of rest and maybe a few guys returning from injuries could help them. They still can put up a lot of runs, especially with Freeman on the mend. The Yanks may have to bludgeon their way to victory. I'm just glad the Yankees are finally back in the World Series. Biggest key for the Yankees is just not to let them score a bunch. Multiple games against the mets they blew them out and the elimination game 4 padres didn't even score. These games need to be kept under control. |
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Post by anthonyd46 on Oct 23, 2024 6:36:37 GMT -5
kinda surprised that more times writers favored the yankees. i haven't seen any odds, but have to think the dodgers are slight favorites. the dodgers lineup is deeper especially if freeman comes back. they'll provide a bigger test than cleveland. because of the dodgers injuries, think we have better starting but they a better bullpen. if we play our best baseball we can win. judge has to be judge. doubt stanton will be mvp 3 series in a row. the lefty be it wells or jazz has to provide protection for him. and jazz in particular needs to finally start hitting. Vegas odds are Dodgers -130, Yankees +110. |
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Post by Lola on Oct 23, 2024 14:35:48 GMT -5
Just an absurd price and that's probably before the website's fees. I don’t think there’s a ticket under a thousand $ at the stadium. I’m probably going on Tuesday… just waiting to hear from my connection. |
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Post by Lola on Oct 23, 2024 14:37:17 GMT -5
kinda surprised that more times writers favored the yankees. i haven't seen any odds, but have to think the dodgers are slight favorites. the dodgers lineup is deeper especially if freeman comes back. they'll provide a bigger test than cleveland. because of the dodgers injuries, think we have better starting but they a better bullpen. if we play our best baseball we can win. judge has to be judge. doubt stanton will be mvp 3 series in a row. the lefty be it wells or jazz has to provide protection for him. and jazz in particular needs to finally start hitting. And Cole needs to be our Ace! |
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Post by Lola on Oct 23, 2024 14:39:13 GMT -5
kinda surprised that more times writers favored the yankees. i haven't seen any odds, but have to think the dodgers are slight favorites. the dodgers lineup is deeper especially if freeman comes back. they'll provide a bigger test than cleveland. because of the dodgers injuries, think we have better starting but they a better bullpen. if we play our best baseball we can win. judge has to be judge. doubt stanton will be mvp 3 series in a row. the lefty be it wells or jazz has to provide protection for him. and jazz in particular needs to finally start hitting. Vegas odds are Dodgers -130, Yankees +110. I’m glad Yanks aren’t picked to be the favorites, that said… Everyone knows you can not predict baseball… Susan! |
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Post by fwclipper51 on Oct 24, 2024 15:26:43 GMT -5
The Yankees need to get their base running game into better shape than they did with the Guardians.
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Post by inger on Oct 24, 2024 16:26:08 GMT -5
The Yankees need to get their base running game into better shape than they did with the Guardians. They should start with running in the proper direction, then get further coaching from there. That series was ridiculous in that category, and helped keep the games closer than they should have been… |
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Post by kaybli on Oct 24, 2024 17:14:39 GMT -5
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Post by chiyankee on Oct 24, 2024 19:30:07 GMT -5
The tale of the tape.
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Post by inger on Oct 24, 2024 23:25:29 GMT -5
I also think the Yankees have a couple inches reach on the Dodgers. Just my opinion… |
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 25, 2024 4:29:49 GMT -5
All right, here it is, in the customary nine parts:
World Series Preview
Part I – The Season’s Series
The Dodgers won the only series between the two team’s at Yankee Stadium in June, two games to one, a week before The Collapse started. This year’s head-to-head in review:
Game 1: Friday, June 7th. Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Cody Poteet. Poteet had the adverse matchup, but kept the Yanks in the game while he was in there, 4 2/3 scoreless innings, 2 hits 3 BB and 1 K, but ran into trouble in the 5th, walking Kike Hernadez with two outs, then giving up a single to Betts. Victor Gonzalez (remember him?) came in to face Ohtani and at him to rollover to 1st. Meanwhile, Yamamoto, throwing harder than normal (topping out at 99-100 regularly) basically shoved the Yankee lineup’s bats up their…armpits, shutting them out for 7 innings, just 2 hits and 2 walks, striking out 7. Judge doubled, grounded out and walked against him; Soto didn’t play that night with inflammation in his throwing forearm. He would miss the entire Dodgers series, coming back to play all four games in KC right after. The Dodgers continued to get shutout ball through the 10th from Banda, Treinen, Hudson and Grove. In relief of Poteet, the Yankees pen threw scoreless ball for 5 1/3 innings: Gonzalez, Tonkin, Ferguson and Holmes. Hamilton pitched the scoreless 10th, but in the 11th, he walked Freeman, got Smith to lineout, then gave up the big blow, a 2-run double by Teoscar Hernandez. He got the final two outs, and it was 2-0 Dodgers, going bottom 11th. Yohan Ramirez came in to try to close, and got Verdugo to pop up. Then Judge singled in ghost-runner Volpe, but Ramirez struck out Stanton and got a pop up from Rizzo to end it. Dodgers 2, Yankees 1.
Game 2: Saturday, June 8th. Gavin Stone vs. Nestor Cortes. This one was reasonably close most of the way. After a scoreless 1st, Teoscar hit a solo HR to make it 1-0 Dodgers; Wells tied it in the bottom of the 2nd with a RBI grounder. The Dodgers took the lead again in the 3rd on a RBI single by Ohtani, Judge tied it with a solo HR in the bottom. The Dodgers took the lead for good in the 5th on a solo HR from the other Hernandez, Kike, and made it a 4-2 lead in the 6th on a RBI grounder by Teoscar off Tonkin, who’d come in to reliever Nestor. The Dodgers broke it wide open with 5 in the 8th off Tommy Kahnle on a grand slam on a mislocated change to Teoscar (again).
The Dodgers piled it on with 3 in the 9th on a 2-run double by Freeman off of Santana, and a bases loaded walk from player-pitcher Oswaldo Cabrera by Pages. The Yanks got a way too little/too late solo HR by Judge in the bottom of the 9th for the 11-3 final score.
Game 3 Sunday, June 9th. Tyler Glasnow vs. Luis Gil. The Yanks took the early 2-0 lead in this one. Cabrera led off the 3rd with a solo HR, and Judge knocked in another on a RBI double. Gil looked great for 4 innings, then gave up a tying two-run double to Betts in the 5th, and the go-ahead run on a solo HR to (who else?) Teoscar with two outs in the 6th, knocking Gil out of the game. Verdugo and Judge singled off Glasnow to start the Yankee’s half, and after a wild pitch moving both runners up, Stanton whiffed. Grisham (remember him??) worked the count to 2-1, then hammered a blast to right, and the Yanks had the lead back 5-3. Will Smith hit a sac fly off of Weaver in the 8th to make it a 1-run game again, but Judge responded with a solo HR down the line in left in the bottom of the inning to make it 6-4. Holmes caused his usual heartburn in the 9th, giving up back to back singles with two outs to Lux and Kike Hernandez, but whiffed Mookie Betts to end it.
Would the Yanks have won the series with a healthy Soto? I like to think he’d have made a difference in the first game that was 0-0 for 10 innings, but we’ll never know.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 25, 2024 4:33:03 GMT -5
Part II - The “Prediction System”
The James Prediction System went just 2-2 in the Division Round, but got both Championship Series right. At 4-2, it’ll above average if it gets the World Series right, below average if it doesn’t. Once again, the criteria change slightly for the World Series…
1. Give 10 pts to the team that scored more runs during the season. The Dodgers scored 27 more runs than the Yanks this season; 10-0, Dodgers.
2. Give 4 pts to the team with more doubles. The Dodgers hit almost 50 more doubles; 14-0, LA.
3. Give 11 pts to the team with more triples, and again, the Dodgers hit almost twice as many, 26-15 (this time being slow and unathletic doesn’t pay), 11 more for the Dodgers; 25-0, LA.
4. Give 3 points to the team with fewer home runs. The Dodgers led the NL with 235 homers, but the Yanks still hit 2 more, 28-0, LA.
5. Give 4 pts to the team with the higher batting average, and the Dodgers will this one as well, .258 to .248; 32-0, LA.
6. Give 4 pts to the team with the higher slugging percentage, and thanks to their advantage in BAVG, doubles and triples, the Dodgers win this by .015; 36-0 LA.
7. Give 3 points to the team with fewer errors, and the Dodgers had 5 fewer; 39-0, LA
8. Give 10 pts to the team whose pitches struck out more hitters, and that’s the Yankees by about 50; Yanks finally “on the board”, 39-10, LA
10. Give 16 pts to the team that allowed more walks, and again, that the Yanks, about 30 more this season; 39-26, LA
11. Give 3 pts to the team with the worse record, and by 4 games, that’s also the Yanks; 39-29, LA
12. Give 11 pts to the team with the more recent postseason experience. Yanks missed the playoff last year, the Dodgers didn’t. Final score, Dodgers 50, Yanks 29.
The betting line opened with the Dodgers as roughly a 6-7 favorite, but more money came in early on the Yanks and the line is now down to Dodgers as approximately a 5-6 favorite (Yanks +104, Dodgers -122 at Fan Duel).
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 25, 2024 4:33:40 GMT -5
Part III – The Dodgers’ pitching and what the Yankees have to do:
As in the ALCS, the Yanks again have the starting pitcher advantage here, but I’m not sure how big or whether it matters. As of now, the Dodgers’ rotation looks like this: Flaherty, Yamamoto, Buehler, Knack or bullpen game, Flaherty, Yamamoto, Buehler, but if things don’t go well for LA, they might insert a bullpen game at any point in the series after game 2. Yamamoto was great before he got hurt, out for 2 ½ months, came back in September. Pitched well in two starts, then poorly his last 2. Got knocked out early in his first postseason start against the Padres, pitched 5 great innings against them in his 2nd start. Struck out 8 in 4 1/3 in his start against the Mets, giving up 2 runs, throwing just 73 pitches. His velocity was still down a bit from what it was, especially against the Yanks, averaging 95 on 29 of them. He topped out at 96, so it’s reasonable to assume he won’t be throwing 99-100 again. Flaherty was 7-5 with a 2.98 ERA with the Tigers, 6-2 with a 3.58 ERA for the Dodgers. He was mediocre to poor in his game 2 start against the Padres, brilliant in his game 1 start against the Mets, and hammered out after 3 innings in game 5, giving up 8 runs. What he gives the Dodgers in game 1 is up in the air; he pitched a great game against the Yanks in mid-season 2023. Buehler was hit hard by the Padres, giving up 6 in the 2nd, but he stayed in through the 5th. The Dodgers nearly rallied to win, losing 6-5. In game 3 against the Mets, he pitched 4 shutout innings, striking out 6. He showed great breaking stuff with mediocre command, and he took velocity off his pitches to get more spin and break. And that’s basically it for the starters. Landon Knack might be the starter or bulk reliever in game 4, but he’s not great; the Mets beat him up in his two innings in game 2, basically losing the game for the Dodgers right there.
Again, for the other question: how much do their starters matter? The Yanks beat up on the Guardians’ vaunted bullpen, winning games off of Gaddis (twice), Smith (once) and Clase (once). Smith didn’t actually get the loss, but he gave up the big 3-run HR to Stanton in game 4. The Dodgers bullpen is just as deep, but the difference here is that almost all their top relievers have closing experience, so they can go to any of them late in the game in a key spot. Kopech closed some games for them down the stretch; now he appears to be their fire-balling Swiss Army Knife, getting out of a jam in the late inning in one game, serving as the opener in game 6 against the Mets. Daniel Hudson had 3 post-season saved for the Nats in 2019, had 10 saves for them in 2020 and 10 more for the Dodgers this year. Their lefties, Alex Vesia and Anthony Banda, saved 5 games and 2 this year; there was a brief moment when Banda looked like he would get the closer’s job when Evan Phillips had his big slump mid-season. Phillips was an elite setup man in 2022, inherited the closer job last year when Jansen went free agent to the Red Sox, lost it this year when he went into a Holmes-like slump in July, recovered in August and September to pitch very well, and has been unscored on in 6 2/3 innings in 5 games, the last three in high leverage, getting 2 wins and 3 holds. Phillips' key pitch is a wipeout slider. Finally, Blake Treinen is the current Dodger closer, saving 2 against the Padres, 1 against the Mets, allowing just 1 run in 8 innings in 6 games, striking out 11 and walking 2. They also have Ryan Brasier and a couple of long men; the rookie Casparius and old Yankee foe Brent Honeywell, although one of them will be dropped for the returning Buster Graterol, who pitched just 7 innings the whole season with multiple injuries to his pitching shoulder, hip and hamstring.
The game plan has to be the same as it was against the Guardians: get the starters out early in as many games as you can, get their top relievers into the series early and often, wear them down, get multiple looks on them to get a read on them. As with the Guardians, all of them are good with a variety of looks in a variety of ways, all can dominate at times, but all can be gotten to. The two who throw hardest, Kopech and Vesia, have command issues at times. When they do, the Yanks have to pounce. The Yankees have to maintain continuous pressure against the Dodgers’ pitchers. They can’t afford letting them have some good starts, like they had against the Mets, because the Dodgers’ lineup will be relentless against the Yanks. Again, the goal is to force a long series, and catch up with their pen in games 4, 5 and 7 late in the series, when the off days are no longer an aid. If the Dodgers get 3 good-to-excellent starts from their top 3 starters as they did in the NLCS, the Yanks’ chances of beating up their bullpen drop dramatically, and so does their chances of staging the upset.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 25, 2024 4:37:05 GMT -5
Part IV - The Dodgers’ hitting and what the Yankees pitching needs to do.
Pray.
Well, OK, maybe not that, but for the first time in the post-season, the Yanks’ face a lineup as good or better than their own. If Freeman were completely healthy, the Dodgers would be able to top Judge and Soto with Ohtani, Betts and Freeman. But Freeman is still playing on the damaged ankle, and was limited to 4 games, and 3 for 18 with just 1 RBI in the NLCS. Keep that in mind; the Dodgers, in just 6 games, with one of their best 3 hitters crippled, set the all-time record for runs scored in ANY playoff series in MLB history with 46 (but NOT the World Series; the Yanks still have that one, 55 in the 7-game 1960 World Series).
The Ohtani-Betts axis is so well known, I don’t have to explain. Yankee fans well know how great Betts is, especially in the clutch, and freed from his Anaheim prison, Ohtani had one of the great season in MLB history this year. He had a poor series against the Padres, but a great one against the Mets. But those three are not the end of the Dodgers’ attack, LA might have a bigger advantage in the their other 6 vs. the Yanks’ other 7. Teoscar Hernandez had a great NLDS, but a terrible NLCS; it didn’t matter, even with his 2-22 and 1 RBI, the Dodgers still got 46 runs in 6 games off the Mets. The big problem is that the Dodgers have multiple hitters in the 5-9 spots in the order who are great in the post-season, Edman, who won the NLCS MVP with 11 hits and 11 RBI; Kike Hernandez, who hits big postseason HRs way too often, and hit big ones in both the Division and Championship Series, and Muncy, whose every HR in the postseason seems enormous. They also have auxiliary threats in starting catcher Will Smith, one of the best hitting catchers in MLB, and who hasn’t yet gotten going in the postseason and Andy Pages, a good defensive centerfielder with serious power.
The Dodgers have more team speed than the Yanks and just as much power. They stole almost 50 more bases than the Yanks, and had 3 fewer caught stealing as well. I you can say the Dodgers are an Ohtani better than the Yanks in steals. For what it’s worth, in the 11 post-season games so far, Ohtani is 0 for 1 in stolen bases. As a team, the Dodgers are +12.7 baserunning runs, and the Yanks were dead last in the majors, -16.7 runs.
Again, if the pitching and defense are sound, postseason ball is usually “straight baseball” with the running game not being a major factor. But the Yanks’ pitching might not be able to shut down the Dodgers’ lineup ability to reach base. Even if they do that, the Dodgers power and clutch hitting up and down the lineup might be too much to handle. The Yanks will need at least 3 good games from their two aces, Cole and Rodon, to keep their own bullpen from running out of gas in the last 3-4 games of the series, especially now that the group of three elite relievers is down to two with the probable loss of effectiveness of Holmes for the rest of the postseason. It would certainly help a lot if Schmidt, Gill or Cortes can give the Yanks 3-5 tolerable innings, but I doubt they will. If they can do that twice, it’s a huge help and might be enough to win the series.
They’ll need Hill to keep working his magic act, and Cousins to step up and take Holmes’ spot as one of the top relievers. It would certainly help if Hamilton found his slot; when he’s on, he can be dominant, but the odds of that are low. The wild card here is Leiter. He pitched fairly well in his two ALCS appearances, but he shouldn’t be able to stop this lineup, he doesn’t throw nearly hard enough. He pitched well against the Dodgers in 2 games and 2 innings this year, and his record against the current Dodgers team is decent: 11-51 with 3 HR, 16 K’s and 1 BB. Betts is 1-5 with a HR; Ohtani is 1-3 with a triple, Edman is 2-7, Teoscar is 1-3, Muncy is 1-5 with a HR, Freeman is 2-11. Whether he can do as well with the season on the line in the next 9 days…nobody knows. If Leiter can pitch well, the Yanks might be able to avoid Holmes in all key spots.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 25, 2024 4:40:44 GMT -5
Part V- The Yankees’ hitting and what they should try to do
If the Dodgers top 3 starters were clicking on all cylinders, this series would likely be a rout for them. If they had a couple of their severely injured starters healthy: Kershaw, May, Ryan, Glasnow, Stone, Gonsolin, this series would likely be a rout for them. But they are missing all those starters, and their top 3 aren’t clicking on all cylinders, so the Yanks have a legit shot. I’m expecting Stanton to hit one or two key home runs. I’m expecting Volpe to make some contributions; he’ll have plenty of rest before the Series, and days off on the two travel days. I expect Torres to keep contributing. His solid approach in the leadoff spot has led to outstanding results so far. Verdugo has chipped in sporadically, unexpectedly. I expect him to surprise the Dodgers with a key hit or two. The Yankees do have one pretty big thing going for them this series; unless the Dodgers choose to open a game with either Vesia or Banda, they won’t face a lefthander starter in the series. I wonder if they regret trading Ryan Yarbrough to the Jays for backup centerfielder Kevin Keirmeier now, though I would guess they regret the injuries to Kershaw and the other injured non-lefty starters more.
To me, the offense hinges again on 3 hitters: Rizzo, who has to contribute, at least a little bit, by getting a key single or three and drawing some walks, even if the hand injury saps his power. He’s one of the few guys in the lineup capable of shortening up and making contact and putting it in play in most of the time in key situations. Chisholm, who bats in a key spot in the order, can’t be moved down, and has contributed almost nothing in 9 post-season games: just one disputed stolen base that led to a key run against the Royals, and one solo home run in the 9th in game 2 against KC with the Yanks down by 3. He’s 6-45 in the 9 games with 2 runs and 1 RBI, which means aside from the stolen base and the HR, he's done very little and he’s also had 15 K’s and 3 BB. He doesn’t have to get big hits all series long; just in 2 or 3 games. And he doesn’t have to finish rallies on all of them, he can start a couple. But he has to do something positive at the plate. If they move him down to join the struggling Wells, who must play to control the running game of the Dodgers, that gives them a void in the bottom of the order with Chisholm, Wells and Verdugo, and the Dodgers can stack their lefties against them all through the series, especially if they don’t have to use their lefties to stop Soto because they’ll be pitching around him.
For the 3rd and final time this postseason, it might all come down to Judge. The Yanks have made it through two good but lesser teams without Judge hitting like the superstar that he is, but I don’t think they get through this Dodgers team that way. He’ll have to hit; he’ll have to. To me, the Soto HR in the 9th inning of game 5 that won the ALCS is just like Brett’s HR off Gossage that sealed the 1980 ALCS. Brett saw very few fastballs in a key spot for a long time after he hit Gossage’s best fastball into the upper deck at the Stadium. If I’m the Dodgers, Soto won’t see another fastball in a key spot all series; if I’m the Dodgers, I’m walking him in any key spot this whole series, until Judge proves them wrong by picking up the slack. Heck, I’d walk Soto 15-20 times in this series if I had to; 2-3 times a game. Judge had some big productive at bats in the ALCS; the sac fly and 2-run HR in Game 2. The 2-run HR off Clase in game 3. But overall, it was another so-so series for him: 3 for 18, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 4 on the two HR, two on sac flies, 4 runs scored, 8 K’s and 2 BB. I know, I know, 6 RBI in 5 games sounds like it’s more than good enough, but really considering all the opportunities he had, it’s adequate, nothing more. Torres and Soto put themselves on base 18 times in the ALCS (not including the 3 Soto HR). Torres got thrown out at home once. Twice Soto made the last out after Torres got on. Once, Judge himself was walked intentionally. 6 RBI isn’t bad in those circumstances, but it isn’t all that good in such circumstances, either; not for a superstar.
On the post-season as a whole, Judge is just 5 for 31, with 13 K’s and 7 BB, 1 double, 2 HR, 6 runs and 6 RBI. It is perhaps an unfair burden to place on one player, no matter how great, but ultimately, no matter how great a regular season hitter a player is, if he can’t get it done in the post-season in repeated tries, his reputation is tarnished: Barry Bonds went through the same thing until his big 2002 post-season. A-Rod did as well until 2009. Unfair or not, Judge is still 0-6 with RISP this postseason with 2 GIDP and 2 K’s, albeit with two sac flies, a HBP and a walk. He needs to come through it a big way in at least one or two games in this series. The Dodgers don’t have as good a book on him as the AL teams and pitchers do, and that might help. I’m sure they’ve scouted him thoroughly, and while the Yanks could conceivably win without a good series from Judge, it becomes much harder, nearly impossible, if Soto is pitched around, and Judge can’t make the Dodgers pay. If that seems out of proportion, well…I’m sorry. He’s been one of the 5 best players in baseball for several years now, whenever healthy. This is his 7th postseason; his 15th postseason series or Wild Card game. He hasn’t hit .250 since going 1-4 in the Wild Card game in 2021, hasn’t hit over .250 since the 3-game sweep of the Twins in the 2019 ALDS. Judge may never get to the World Series again. His time has to be NOW. As a big fan of his, I hope he gets it done this time, not merely for all our sakes as fans, but for his sake as well.
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