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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 25, 2024 4:49:13 GMT -5
Part VI - The Yankees pitchers against the Dodgers
This is the tough one. The Dodgers lineup looks better, top to bottom, than the Yankee lineup, primarily because of the clutch guys in the 5-9 slots. Muncy, Kike, and Edman hit a team hard while their pitchers are trying to catch their breath between battles with Ohtani, Mookie, Freeman and Teoscar. I don’t believe the 3-4-5 starters are up to the task, whether that #5 starter is a fragile Nestor Cortes or Marcus Stroman. I believe Schmidt will have trouble getting through their lineup twice, much less a 3rd time.
So much of this series is on Cole, Rodon and the top 4 relievers in the Yankees’ pen: Weaver, Kahnle, and hopefully Cousins and…somebody, anybody. Or two. Frankly, given Cole’s been hit hard all three games, though he largely got away with it against the Royals in game 4, I don’t know if he can keep this Dodgers team in the ballpark, especially at the Stadium if there’s a game 5. I think Rodon has the stuff to take them on, but whether he can command himself with all the chips on the table, I don’t know. I believe the Yanks need 3 out of 4 good starts from the two them; games where they hold them to 2 runs or less in 5-6 innings, 3 runs or less in 6-7 innings. Rodon’s start in game 5 vs. the Guardians will be good enough. But Rodon gave up a lot of HR this year, and he didn’t face the Dodgers in the series at the Stadium. Finally, Weaver has to show he can shut down this team, and he might have to pitch 5 times in 9 days; maybe 6. Of the four “matchups” in the series, this is the one I fear most. Is it possible the Dodgers will be stymied? Yeah, maybe. The Padres rotation was about the same quality level, with Darvish, Cease and King, and they held them down a bit, but the Dodgers still got 24 runs in 5 games, with 9 HR. This series looks similar to that one, to me, anyway.
The pitching has two difficult tasks. First and foremost, to keep Ohtani and Betts from tearing them apart. They won’t be able to do it every game, but they have to do it in enough games. The second might be just as tough, to keep the clutch trio of Edman, Hernandez and Muncy together with Teoscar Hernandez and Smith, from cutting their legs out when they’re not looking. It seems like a tall mountain to climb, but that’s why they have to play the games to see.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 25, 2024 4:57:56 GMT -5
Part VII - A Few Other Things
As with the first two teams they played, the Dodgers have the advantage in team speed, only this time, unlike the Royals and Guardians, they can match the Yanks, hammer-thrower for hammer-thrower, in the HR department.
On defense, the situation is nearly identical to the last series. The Guardians were 3rd in MLB with a .709 team Defensive Efficiency Rating, the Dodgers were 2nd at .710. The Yanks were 13th, but at .703, which isn’t a bad number. It means the Dodgers will turn one more ball in play into an out every 140 balls in play, which is about once every 5 or 6 games played. The Yanks made 5 more errors, and allowed 4 more unearned runs. Neither team was high up on the list of GIDP turned; the Dodgers finished 19th; the Yanks 24th with 8 fewer. The Dodgers were 3rd in MLB with +66 BIS Defensive Runs Saved, the Yanks were 11th with + 31. The Yanks were 2nd in Statcast fielding Run Value at +36; the Dodgers were 20th at -12. The Yanks get their big framing advantage back; they’re still 2nd in MLB at +20.1 runs and the Dodgers are 24th at -8.3 runs. So maybe they can frustrate the Dodgers’ hitters a bit with some stolen strikes and stolen ꓘ’s. Maybe. A bit. The Dodgers got 73 runs in 13 games against the Giants and their great receiver and framer, Patrick Bailey, so the quality of pitching matters, too. The Dodgers did lead all of MLB in stolen base runs prevented at +6; the Yanks were +2 and finished 5th in MLB. Adding this up, the Dodgers appear to have a slight edge in defense overall, but it looks like a minor advantage, at best.
As for the managers, Boone was again a modest plus in the ALCS. One can maybe fault his pitching choices a bit in game 4, but not in game 5, where he kept the two landmines, Holmes and Mayza, out of things. He might be forced into a situation of needing to depend on one or both at some point in this series. Dave Roberts has his superteam in the playoffs every year, they’ve won the NL West in 13 of the last 14 seasons, and 8 times in the 9 seasons Roberts has been the manager. But every time they don’t win it all, which is every season except for the oddball COVID season of 2020, he gets just as much criticism from Dodgers fans as Yankees fans give Boone. Call it a draw going in.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 25, 2024 5:04:30 GMT -5
Part VIII - Clutch hitting and clutch pitching; the hitting first:
With RISP, the two team are close to each other. Dodgers: .266/.357/.433/.790 (8th among 30 MLB teams, 3rd, 8th, and 6th) Yankees: .262/.344/.465/.809 (10th, 8th, 2nd, and 2nd) The Dodgers had 161 more PA with RISP which is a lot, and scored 28 more runs. The Yanks have hit 10 more HR with RISP.
With RISP and two outs, LA has the edge. Dodgers: .267/.371/.431/.805 (1st, 1st, 3rd and 3rd). Yankees: .230.334/.404/.738 (17th, 13th, 14th and 12th). The Dodgers had 90 more PA in this situation and score 50 more runs, a fairly large advantage. The Yanks outhomered the Dodgers again, but only by 4, 27 to 23.
In Late & Close, the Dodgers again have a big edge: .261/.349/.457/806 (3rd, 2nd, 2nd and 2nd) for LA; .234/.322/.387/.709 (14th, 9th, 9th and 8th) for the Yankees. The Dodgers had 85 more PA in this situation, and scored 10 more runs, which is a modest advantage. The Dodgers did have a big edge in HR in Late & Close, 36 to 24.
In tied games, the Dodgers have a very small edge. Dodgers: .251/.337/.455/.792 (7th, 4th, 2nd, 3rd). Yankees: .257/.344/.433/.777 (4th, 3rd, 6th and 4th) The Dodgers have 156 more PA in this situation, have hit 13 more HR and scored 23 more runs. Almost a draw in this category, really.
In High Leverage situations it’s a mixed bag. The Dodgers are .263/.341/.441/.782 (2nd, 4th, 2nd and 2nd) and the Yanks are .249/.330/.414/.744 (15th, 9th, 8th and 9th). Despite the advantage in the stats and ordinals, the Dodgers had 91 more PA in High Leverage, but scored just 12 more runs, so no real advantage here. The Dodgers did hit more HR in High Leverage, by 10, but still, just 12 more runs.
On the pitching side:
The Yanks and Dodgers are basically side by side with RISP. Yankees: .237/.319/.381/.699 (8th, 12th, 6th and 7th). Dodgers: .231/.317/.385/.702 (4th, 9th, 8th, and 8th). Yanks have 28 more pitching PA with RISP, and have allowed 10 fewer HR and 16 fewer runs. Slight edge to the Yanks.
With 2 outs and RISP, it’s Dodgers: .194/.293/.335/.628 (3rd, 2nd, 5th, 4th); Yankees .205/.303/.323/.626 (5th, 5th, 3rd, 3rd). Yanks had 33 more pitching PA in this situation, allowed 8 less HR (12 to the Dodgers’ 20) and 4 more runs. If anything, a tiny edge to the Yanks, based on the HR.
In Late & Close, Dodgers: .187/.259/.333/.593 (1st, 1st, 6th, and 2nd), and Yankees: .211/.296/.324/.619 (4th, 7th, 3rd, 4th). The Dodgers had 2 more pitching PA, allowed 2 runs fewer, but again 10 more HR (17 to 27). Again, a tiny edge to the Yanks.
In tie games, it’s the Los Angeles who has the edge. Dodgers: 226/.305/.386/.691 (4th, 10th, 12th, 11th) Yankees: .231/.306/.409/.714 (9th, 12th, 22nd, 19th). The Dodgers have 157 more pitching PA, and just 12 runs more allowed, with 5 fewer HR.
In High Leverage, the situation is reversed, with the Yanks holding the edge. Dodgers: .220/.293/.399/.692 (3rd, 2nd, 16th, 9th). Yankees: .218/.296/.328/.624 (2nd, 5th, 1st and 2nd). The Yanks have 4 more pitching PA, but have allowed just about half as many HR (20 vs. 39) and far fewer runs, 46 less, to be exact.
The Dodgers look to be the better team in clutch hitting situations, and hit more clutch home runs. But that’s one of the strengths of the Yankees pitch, they give up few HR in clutch situations. The winner of the clutch HR battle might determine a key game or two, and maybe the whole series.
In their division series, the Yanks’ hitters were 6-36 with RISP, and the pitchers allowed 6-22. In the ALCS, the Yanks were 7-37 and the pitchers gave up 9-47. In the two series combined, the Yanks’ hitters are 13 for 73, .178, while the pitchers were 15 for 69, .217. In the NLDS against the Padres, the Dodgers’ hitters were 11-34 while their pitchers allowed just 6-33. In the NLCS vs. the Mets, the Dodgers’ hitters went 22-72 while their pitchers allowed 11-57. In the two series combined, the LA hitters were 33 for 106, .311, while the pitching allowed just 17 for 90, .188. One more obstacle the Yanks will have to overcome: the Dodgers have been vastly better with RISP in the Division and Championship Series, and their pitching has been slightly better in the clutch as well.
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Post by qwik3457bb on Oct 25, 2024 5:09:30 GMT -5
Part IX – What’s the story, Jerry?
The Dodgers have the edge in team speed, in the bullpen and a solid edge in clutch hitting. The Yanks have an edge in the rotation. The two teams’ defenses should be more or less even, overall. For the first time, the Yanks are not at a contact hitting disadvantage, having struck out 10 less times than the Dodgers did this season. The Yanks lost 2 of 3 to the Dodgers, but they didn’t have Soto, and though the Dodgers were missing multiple key starting pitchers, they're missing even more of them now, especially Glasnow, who might have been enough to tip this series into a rout for the Dodgers by himself if he’d been healthy.
The Dodgers were 7-4 in their two rounds, the Yanks were 7-2. But the Dodgers play in the NL, and this year, the NL was the tougher league, winning the league head-to-head, 369 win to 321. In the SRS rating system at Baseball Reference, the Dodgers were the best of the 30 teams in the majors; the Yanks 2nd, just ahead of the Brewers. Then the Phillies, Padres, Braves and Diamondbacks. The Orioles were the 2nd best team by SRS, 8th in MLB. So yes, the NL was likely measurably the tougher league; having six of the top seven teams by SRS. The Dodgers were 30-16 in interleague play, the Yanks just 23-23. In the playoffs, the Dodgers also faced the slightly better competition. In the SRS system, the Mets were the 11th best team in MLB, but the Padres were the 5th. The Royals and Guardians were 9th and 10th best. Furthermore, the Yanks have won by winning close games. All 7 of their wins were decided by 3 runs or less, in 4 of them, 2 runs or 1. Of their 7 wins, the Dodgers have won 5 by blowouts of 5 or more. The distinguishing mark of the superior team is to win blowouts, even over other good teams. It is also true that the Dodgers have been blown out twice, and the Yanks lost by just 2 runs in both of their losses, so no blowouts against them. You can make the case that the Yanks are better than the Mets, and should do better against this Dodgers team, but are they really? Over the whole season, well...yes, the Yanks were better. But over the last 82 games and the postseason...no, the Mets played better.
Before the Yanks played the Mets this year, the Yanks had just started their plummet, losing 7 of 10 before the first subway series at Citifield. The were 52-28, and their run differential was +109. The Mets came in hot, having won 12 of 16, but were still under .500, and had a run differential of -1. From that point until each arrived at their series against the Dodgers, the Mets were 57-36, with a run differential of +87, while the Yanks went 49-42, with a run differential of +49. Is there really a reason to think the Yanks will do better? Maybe, if you assume the Yanks come in rested, while the Mets had been playing as hard as they could since early June. Maybe they just ran out of gas; maybe the Yanks can do better. Maybe.
Unlike the first two series the Yanks won, this time, it is the Dodgers who are slightly older, and while the Yanks are still desperate to confirm their greatness with a title before the core gets too old, their desperation is matched by the Dodgers’ own: all those close misses and blown chances in the last 11 seasons: 3 NLCS losses and 2 World Series losses. They’ve had a tremendous team for years, and still they went out and got both Ohtani and Yamamoto via free agency. The Yanks’ edge in desperation is matched by the Dodgers need to prove they aren’t a perpetual postseason choke team, especially after adding the best free agent hitter AND the best free agent pitcher.
The Dodgers were the better team in the regular season, they’ve beaten better teams in the playoffs, winning 5 games by blowout. You can say it’s just the Mets and their pitching magic ran out through fatigue and so many tough games down the stretch, but it was the Dodgers’ relentless lineup blew that magic out all series long. I said the Mets would be a tough out, and they didn’t quit in the face of multiple savage knockdowns. In the end, the Dodgers wore them down and overwhelmed them. Yes, the Yanks have Soto, who they didn’t have in the regular season series that the Dodgers won, and that’s a big add for the World Series, but I think the Dodgers are smart enough to make Soto as much of a non-factor as he can be made by simply refusing to pitch to him, and unless Judge and Stanton make them pay consistently, I don’t see how the Yanks’ lineup keeps up.
It's the playoffs, and strange sh…uh…stuff happens. Can the Yanks win this series? Sure they can. And that’s not just the “anything can happen in a short series” stuff talking. If Judge and Chisholm get going, and they have the ability to; it’ll force the Dodgers to pitch to Soto (assuming they’re not stupid enough to let Soto beat them before Judge and Chisholm prove it). If Cole and Rodon pitch good games in their starts, and they have the stuff to do that; if Kahnle and Weaver and whoevers else can lock it down, I can see a scenario where the Yanks win it in 6. But I can also easily imagine a scenario where the Yanks struggle to take even one game. The Dodgers have the best record, and the best run differential by a small amount. The oddsmakers have made them a favorite, and they’ve stayed the favorite, despite the money rolling in on the Yanks side. There’s a reason for that. Of course, the Dodgers will have to prove it head-to-head, nothing is proven until it’s proven. If the Yanks can extend it to 7, tiring out the Dodgers’ pen along the way, well, it’s Schmidt vs. Buehler, and anything can happen.
There are some who’ll believe I’m rationalizing my prior judgement that this Yankee team isn’t a legit title-winning squad, but that’s not the case. Just as I thought the Yanks would beat both the Royals and Guardians because they were better, the same thing is true here. If the Yanks take the Dodgers in a sweep or 5 games, I’ll be the most shocked AND happiest dumbass in the country, you can be sure of that.
As Sheehan says when he does these things, the last sentence in a playoff series preview is always the least important:
Dodgers in 6 games.
<Ducks the tomatoes and cabbages being hurled his way as he does a Snagglepuss: Exit stage left, runnin’ all the way!>
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Post by bomberhojoe on Oct 25, 2024 6:03:31 GMT -5
Great stuff qwik, as usual!
Thanks for the time and research you put in!
GO YANKEES!!!!
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Post by JEGnj on Oct 25, 2024 6:34:32 GMT -5
Finally Game Day.
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Post by desousa on Oct 25, 2024 7:39:36 GMT -5
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Post by chiyankee on Oct 25, 2024 8:23:10 GMT -5
No kidding, it feels like it's been a long, long time. |
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Post by Lola on Oct 25, 2024 9:27:52 GMT -5
No kidding, it feels like it's been a long, long time. I've been anxiously awaiting all week! This is going to be a nerve wracking series! LETS GO YANKEES! |
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Post by Rockaway Park on Oct 25, 2024 9:29:08 GMT -5
I'm just hoping that Teoscar dude doesn't get hot.
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Post by chiyankee on Oct 25, 2024 9:33:13 GMT -5
I'm just hoping that Teoscar dude doesn't get hot. We need Judge to get hot!!! |
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Post by bumper on Oct 25, 2024 10:31:30 GMT -5
yup the waiting seems like forever, both this week and since 2009. have felt since opening day that the dodgers were the favorites to win this thing. and that hasn't changed. their lineup is deeper and their bullpen is better.
but if the yankees play up to their potential, they can win this thing. in the lineup, the keys are the LH bats - jazz and wells. jazz calming down and performing like he did during the season and wells stop being a automatic out will be huge for this lineup. need to put pressure on their pitching and not just not rely on the top 3 guys.
i'll take our starters but our pen needs to keep doing it what it has been been doing for the most part during this PS. it will be much more difficult against this dodger lineup.
dodgers still are the favorites, but if we can split the first 4 games, then think we can win the series. no matter what happens, i expect a great series.
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Post by yanks92 on Oct 25, 2024 10:57:34 GMT -5
Think I’m going to pull the trigger on tickets for game 4. Live in Florida and my dad’s in his mid 60’s. It’s a hefty price, but it’s a bucket list item and if there’s another 15 year drought, who knows if my dad and I will have the opportunity. Don’t think I can pass this one up.
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Post by kaybli on Oct 25, 2024 11:13:49 GMT -5
Think I’m going to pull the trigger on tickets for game 4. Live in Florida and my dad’s in his mid 60’s. It’s a hefty price, but it’s a bucket list item and if there’s another 15 year drought, who knows if my dad and I will have the opportunity. Don’t think I can pass this one up. Good for you yanks92! Hope you see a Yankees win! Maybe even the clinching game if they sweep! (I can dream). |
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Post by inger on Oct 25, 2024 11:45:27 GMT -5
Think I’m going to pull the trigger on tickets for game 4. Live in Florida and my dad’s in his mid 60’s. It’s a hefty price, but it’s a bucket list item and if there’s another 15 year drought, who knows if my dad and I will have the opportunity. Don’t think I can pass this one up. You might be my latest hero. And I’m serious. Go… |
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