Hall of Fame Mock Ballots

Rolen is already a Hall of Famer, isn't he?

But still worthy of discussion. I didn’t want to say, “If Rolen is in, Nettles should be in…

Of course Nettles will win this. It’s a Yankee site… 🤓

     I've been campaigning for basing admission into the HOF on MVP voting. How can a guy never recognized as one of the game's best during his active career be voted as an immortal when he retires ?  Scott Rolen had one season where MVP voters saw him as one the the league's 15 best. In 2004 he finished 4th with a single first place vote. Othter than that season, he was a very good player but not among the league's best.
    Nettles had two "elite" years. In '77 and again in '78 he finished in the top 6 of MVP voting. That makes for a great career but HOF ?   I don't think it is enough. I don't have an exact formula but I am sure one could be put together that would take voting away from the Hall and make selection more transparent than it is today. 

    If someone argued enough, I'd be open to a second avenue for Hall entry based on reaching career goals. Auto entry for anyone with 3000 hits, 500 home runs, 250 wins or whatever mark is decided on. I want the selection criteria open and empirical. 

Ah, I get it. OK, rolling up my sleeves for the usual Hall of Fame discussion thing, with a reminder that I am a tough Hall of Fame grader, and I'm going to look at things in more detail than I usually do, because I'm reconsidering a decision a made a long time ago...

Of Nettles' top 10 statistical comps at Baseball Reference, only one is in the Hall of Fame: Ron Santo, and at a similarity score of 860, Santo isn't very similar. But then only one of his top 10 comps has a similarity score over 900: Darrell Evans, another low-average high-power 3rd baseman, who wasn't nearly as good defensively, but was more productive offensively because he had a considerably higher walk rate than Nettles in his career (15% vs. 10.6% for Nettles). This, in itself, doesn't hurt Nettles' case, because all great players come from the extreme right end of the talent curve, so most of them will be dissimilar to all but a handful of other players.  Babe Ruth has no comps with a score over 750. Mike Schmidt has just Eddie Matthews over 900. Lou Gehrig's closes is Jimmy Foxx at just under 870. Same for Lefty Grove (Jim Palmer, 863). Mariano Rivera has just Trevor Hoffman (883). And so on.

On the four Bill James tests, Nettles fails all four, and isn't very close on any of them. Just 4 on the Black Ink Test (27 is average for a Hall of Famer), 56 on the Gray Ink Test (144 is average), 63 on the Monitor (average is 100), and 31 on the Standards (50 is average). It would see that, offensively at least, Nettles isn't a Hall of Famer. And he isn't. Career quadruple slash line of .248/.329/.421/.750 is well short of what is normally considered a Hall of Famer.

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When I first looked at Nettles in some detail using Baseball Reference, it was about 20 years ago, and I came to the conclusion that while Nettles had a reasonable case, he fell short of being a Hall of Famer, mostly because he was below the "standard"; below the average level of achievement of the 3rd baseman who'd been elected to the Hall, and I would have put him among the many "just misses" that Yankee fans love and champion: Munson, Mattingly, Williams, Posada and Pettitte. Since that time, all of the following 3rd baseman have been elected to the Hall:

Paul Molitor
Wade Boggs
Ron Santo*
Chipper Jones
Edgar Martinez*
Adrian Beltre
and the subject of this "election", Scott Rolen*.

While players like Boggs, Molitor, Jones and Beltre are well qualified for the Hall, the credentials of the other three are much less solid, hence they get asterisks. Therefore, "standard" for a Hall of Fame 3rd baseman has dropped in the past 20 years. Martinez was selected for the Hall for his hitting. A solid defender when he first became a starter for Seattle, he was quickly moved to DH. Of his 68 career bWAR, 67 is for offense, -9 bWAR on defense, -2 bWAR for baserunning, and difference between assigned replacement level and positional adjustments make up the balance of his WAR total. Not comparable to Nettles, really. Rolen and Santo are more comparable...and though their career bWAR totals are very close, Santo was slightly better: more All-Star Selections, more MVP vote shares, a better hitter, and a Jaffee JAWS number of 66, whereas Rolen and Nettles have JAWS numbers in the mid-50's.

So it actually does come down the the two players in this "election" Rolen vs. Nettles...

1) All-Star games: Rolen 7, Nettles 6
2) MVP vote shares: Nettles 1.3, Rolen 0.9
3) Gold Gloves: Rolen 6, Nettles 2, but Rolen didn't have to compete with Brooks Robinson.
4) MLB seasons (and yes, that's a valid measure of quality; very few players make it to 15, much less 20 seasons, without being a high-quality player): Rolen 17, Nettles 22
5) Rolen won a Rookie of the Year Award, Nettles didn't, but Nettles has started for 5 pennant-winning teams and has 2 rings, Rolen was a starter for just 2 pennant-winning teams, and has 1 ring. 

On the four James' tests, Nettles does better on the Black Ink and Grey Ink tests, and Rolen does better on the Monitor and Standards. Rolen has just one of his top 10 comps in the Hall, and it's Santo, same as Nettles. As for the JAWS numbers:

Total bWAR: Rolen, 70.1; Nettles: 67.9
JAWS7 (peak seven seasons): Rolen 43.6; Nettles 42.4
Total JAWS: Rolen 56.9; Nettles 55.1

So there's not a nickel's worth of difference between the two, and if Rolen's in the Hall, then it's very likely Nettles should be as well...but it's not quite that simple, and the reason why is that Rolen/Nettles is the dividing line between those who are in the Hall and those who are out. Every 3rd baseman on the JAWS list from Rolen on to Schmidt at the top is in the Hall, right below Nettles is Hall of Famer Home Run Baker, whose credentials are somewhat iffy; Baker was elected to the Hall by the Veterans' Committee, 33 years after he retired. If I had evaluated Baker 20 years ago, I might not have voted to put him in the Hall, either. You have to drop 12 spots below Baker to get to the next Hall of Famer, Jimmy Collins, and he was voted in by the Veterans' Committee 37 years after he retired, 2 years after he died. Classic "halo effect" selection, maybe. Below Collins it's another 6 slot drop to John McGraw, who while an outstanding player in his prime, his prime didn't last long enough to get him elected to the Hall for his playing. No, McGraw got in for his managing; it says so explicitly on his selection. Below McGraw, it's another 10 slots down to Deacon White, elected by the Pre-Integration Committee 123 years after his retirement, 74 years after his death. From there, it's another 14-,15-slot drop to George Kell and Pie Traynor. Kell is simply a poor choice by the Veterans Committee, made as much or more for his long tenure as a Tigers' broadcaster rather than as a player. Kell never had even a 5 bWAR season in his career, and even though he made many All-Star teams (10) and got MVP votes in 8 seasons, he had only a couple of seasons that could be considered Hall of Fame worthy. Maybe just 1949, when he led the AL in batting at .343, and 1950, when he scored 100 runs for the only time in his career, and knocked in 100 for the only time in his career. He played less than 1800 games, and scored less than 900 runs and knocked in less than 900 as well. He was elected in 1983, 26 years after his playing retirement, and 14 years before his retirement as an announcer. 

Kell is propped up by his similarity to Pie Traynor. When I was a kid, I bought a book about Hall of Famers from the Scholastic Book Services. It might have been titled, "The Best in Baseball", but I'm not sure I'm remembering correctly. There would have been about 90 players in the Hall in the late 60's when I bought it, just enough to fit into one of those skinny paperbacks, with maybe a few of the old-timers who'd been long forgotten left out of it. I do remember clearly the author of the book writing that Pie Traynor was considered by most experts to be, at that time, the greatest 3rd baseman in MLB history. Which given the analytical standards of the time, would've been about right. In addition, all the great 3rd baseman at the top of the Hall list played after that time; Eddie Matthews would have just retired, and not been eligible to be voted into the Hall. Clearly, by modern standards, Traynor isn't really a Hall of Famer either, he compiled a very high BAVG, .320 lifetime, but by the batting average norms of the years he played, his averages were excellent, but not extraordinary: 6 seasons in the league top 10, none above 5th. He did play long enough to get over 2400 hits, and over 1200 runs and 1200 RBI. As with most players in the 1920's and 1930's his K rate was very low, but his BB rate wasn't much higher, less than 6% for his career, and though he hit plenty of doubles and triples, hit just 58 HR in 17 seasons. He did knock in 100 runs in 7 seasons, and scored 100 in 2, but he too never had a season of 5 or more bWAR. Thus it is entirely reasonable that Traynor could have been reasonably considered as the best 3rd baseman in MLB history to that point and not worthy of a Hall of Fame selection nowadays. In any event, Trainor wasn't voted in until made re-eligible in 1946 after failing by plenty in his first ten seasons (which was the old limit) of eligibility. He was voted in by the BBWAA 11 years after his retirement. And with the exception of Frankie Frisch New York Giant crony Freddie Lindstrom at #83 on the JAWS list, that's it for 3rd basemen on the list.

End of Part I

So what to do...hmmm...let's try this: let's apply James' Keltner List (so created by Bill James to evaluate the quality of the Hall of Fame candidacy of, ironically enough, another very good 3rd baseman, Ken Keltner; he of stopping DiMaggio's streak with two great plays to take away hits in the 57th game fame). Keltner is 68th on the JAWS list, halfway between Traynor and Lindstrom. Let's apply the 15 questions of the Keltner List, and see what we learn from them:

1) Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody suggest, while he was active, that he was the best player in baseball?

A very tough standard, but clearly for both Rolen and Nettles, the answer is No.

2) Was he the best player on his team?

By bWAR, Rolen was the best player on the Phillies in 1998 and 2001, and on the Cards 2004 team that got swept by the Red Sox to break The Curse. Nettles was the best player on the 1971 Indians that lost 102 games, but also the 1976 Yankees that won the pennant...and got swept by the Big Red Machine. Munson got the MVP Award, but Nettles was 2.7 WAR better. 

3) Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

With his excellent bat and Gold Glove defense, Rolen was regarded as a top 3rd baseman in both the NL and MLB for about 10 years from 1997 through 2006, although not necessarily in all 10 seasons, individually. Alex Rodriguez would have been the best 3rd baseman in baseball in 2004 and 2005. Rolen was the NL's Gold Glove winner in 6 of those 10 seasons, and averaged about 4 offensive WAR as well, and made 5 straight All-Star teams in that 10 years,  starting in 2 of them. Nettles made 5 All-Star teams from 1975 through 1980, just once as the starter, 1975. He didn't win the All-Star starting selection from 1971 through 1974, though he was probably the best 3rd baseman in the AL in 1971 and 1975. Sal Bando did better from 1972 through 1974, and after 1976, George Brett took over as the best in the AL. In the NL, Mike Schmidt would've been the best in baseball until Brett peaked. But in the single season of 1971, Nettles and his 7.6 bWAR was almost certainly the best all-around 3rd baseman in MLB. Joe Torres hit .363, winning the batting title and the NL MVP, but Nettles was literally 55 Rfield (fielding runs at BRef) better, and had 2 more WAR. I would say the answer is a qualified Yes for both Rolen and Nettles, though Nettles' standing is less significant, because he held it for fewer years. 

4) Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Rolen was one of the top 3 players on the 2002 and 2004 Cards, and the 2010 Reds, so it depends on what "a number of races" means. Is 3 enough? Nettles was on of the top 3 players on the 1974 Yankees, that finished a close 2nd to the Orioles and on all three pennant winning teams, 1976-1978. Again, I would say the answer is Yes for both, but Nettles has a slightly better claim to that answer.

5) Was he a good enough player that he could play regularly past his prime?

Rolen's peak ended in 2004, he clearly was good enough to play regularly, playing 142 games in 2006, and 133 in 2010; consistent injuries limited his playing time more than ability. Nettles' peak ended in 1978; he played 145 games in 1979, and played between 120 and 140 games from age 37 to age 41 from 1982 through 1986. I would give Rolen a qualified Yes and Nettles a definitely Yes.

6) Is he the best player in baseball history not in the Hall of Fame? and 10) Is he the best player at his position not in the Hall of Fame?

A tough standard. The question is moot for Rolen as he's already in the Hall. As for Nettles...I'll take these two questions together even though the 2nd is out of sequence, because answering 10) will help me answer 7). Let's see...at catcher, this would be Munson and Buster Posey. At 1st base, Pujols, Cabrera and Votto are all better but not eligible. So are Palmiero and McGwire, but PEDs. Goldschmidt is still active. Keith Hernandez the highest eligible and Rolen and Nettles are marginally better candidates. At 2nd base, Robbie Cano isn't eligible yet, but Bobby Grich is and he's marginally better than both. At short, there's A-Rod, but, well...you know, ya' know? Bill Dahlen is next and aside from having died 74 years ago, and retired 113 years ago, he's about even with Nettles. In left, there's Barry Bonds and Pete Rose, but PEDs for Bonds and banned for gambling for Rose. Next up is Sherry Magee, who's not as good a candidate as Nettles. In center, there's Mike Trout (still active) and then the trio of Beltran, Lofton and Andruw Jones who are, again, about as good. Beltran is marginally better than Nettles, just like Grich. Beltan might be in already if not for the Astros cheating thing. In right, there's Betts (still active) and Joe Jackson (Black Sox scandal) and then you drop down to Dwight Evans, and Nettles is a slightly better candidate than Evans. Relievers are their own category; they're all way short of the WAR of elite position players. Even Mariano is 13-15 peak 7 and total WAR short of Nettles. For starting pitchers, there Clemens (and, you know, ya know?) Then Verlander and Kershaw (still active) and in between those two is Curt Schilling, who isn't in for his involvement in the 38 games bankruptcy and default, and for his controversial political statements. By both peak 7 seasons and overall JAWS, Schilling is about 5-10 WAR better than Nettles, and though it pains me to say this, by accomplishment in both regular season and post-season performance, Schilling is the best player not currently in the Hall. The answer to 7) is No. However, the answer to 10) is just as obviously yes. 

8) Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

Not according to any of the four James tests, nor by his top 10 comps. By comparison to other 3rd baseman...well, that's what we’re trying to decipher.

9) Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Yes, but you have to look at defensive statistics to see it. Nettles was a brilliant defender, 7th all-time in "Total Zone Runs" at 3rd (that's BRef's attempt to project backwards with defensive metrics). But that's about it, and his defense is counted in his JAWS numbers, anyway. His clutch situation numbers are about as good as his overall numbers, in terms of quadruple slash. .750 OPS overall, .757 with RISP, .764 with 2 outs, RISP, .780 in late and close, .762 in tied games, .743 in high leverage. You can make a small case with the "late and close", but the others; it's too small too count. I would say no, except for his glove in the 1978 ALCS and 1978 World Series, where he absolutely saved Guidry in both series.

11) How many MVP type season did the player have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close? 

I would say he had an MVP type season in 1971, but not really; the Indians lost 102 games. 1976 was his only legit MVP-type season. He was never really close; he finished 16th in the league that great 1976 season, including behind 3 of his own teammates: Munson, Mickey Rivers and Chris Chambliss. He did eventually finish 5th and 6th the next two seasons. I would say just 1976, and it wasn't remotely recognized at the time, even though he was 2nd in the AL in bWAR to Mark Fidrych. 

12) How many All-Star type seasons did he have? how many all star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played this many go to the hall of fame?

6 legit seasons over 5 bWAR, the de facto measuring stick at BRef, and three more between 4.7 and 4.9, which is a marginal All-Star. He made 6, which is a low total for a Hall of Famer. The 11 players above him on the JAWS list in the Hall have 106 All-Star seasons, an average of over 9 per player. Only Beltre had fewer, just 4 All-Star seasons. This question/answer works against Netttles' selection, I think. 

13) If this man were the best on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Well, sorta. He was the best player on the 1976 Yankees, by WAR at least, and they DID win the pennant. By WAR, he was the best on the 1977 team as well, and they won it all. In 1978, he was 3rd best, and they won it all again. On the other hand, he was miles and miles the best on the 1971 Indians, and they were so bad, they finished last with 102 losses. I'd have to say, at his peak, the answer was YES. He did it twice, and they won one title, too.

14) What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he change the game in any way? 

He had some slight impact on the way 3rd base was played. Taking advantage of his quickness and arm, he played deeper on a consistent basis than almost every other 3rd baseman of his time, and was able to still throw out bunters much of the time.  Playing deeper increased his "zone of coverage", allowing to have great range in both left and right directions. He got suspended for the exploding bat "superballs" flying out incident. I've not heard of another player corking his bat that same way; and that's noteworthy, but not historical as the question means it. He got into fights with both Brett and Bill Lee, but again: newsworthy, not historical. He's credited with the great line that overnight, Sparky Lyle "went from Cy Young to sayonara". Again, noteworthy, but not historical. This question is intended as a way to provide reasons other than the actual playing record for putting a player in the Hall, like Roger Bresnahan getting into the Hall at least partly for inventing shin guards for catchers. Bresnahan is 20th on the JAWS list at catcher, noticeably below the average of the the 17 Hall of Famers in peak 7 and JAWS.

15) Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the hall of fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider? 

Well, there was the exploding bat thing, and Nettles was rumored to be corking his bat at other times, like when he hit the 9 HRs in April one season (back when the teams played only half of April). And the fights with Brett and Lee. And the one at the victory party in Oakland with Reggie Jackson But compared to others like Cobb, or Gaylord Perry, I would say Nettles is a minor offender, and the answer to this one is Yes.

So: 7 Yes answers and 8 No answers, more or less, and if I remember right, when James first created the Keltner List, it was just 13 questions and he could answer Yes to just 2 of them, and so Keltner was clearly not a Hall of Famer. For someone like Willie Mays, you could answer Yes to at least 14 of these questions, arguably all 15. So Nettles is somewhere in between, still in the gray area.

End of part II

Ok, this third part will be short, and to the point.
If I had to vote for the Hall for Nettles again now, 20 years later, I would say yes, for four reasons:

1) There are only 17 3rd basemen in the Hall of Fame, and that's if you count Martinez and Molitor, both of whom, as has been noted, played the majority of their games at some other position. If you discount 2 or 3 of Veterans Committee selections, who should be discounted as, in my opinion at least, they're not really Hall of Famers, that means you have just 12 or so legit 3rd baseman in the Hall, and that's too few for the entirety of MLB history.
2) The standards for the Hall of Fame at 3rd are clearly lower than they were before, particular with the additions of Santo and especially Rolen, whom Nettles is almost exactly on-par with. It's fair to conclude that if Rolen is in, Nettles should be in as well.
3) With the exception of Schilling, there's not a significantly better candidate than Nettles waiting to be let in, at ANY position, and none better who were primarily 3rd basemen.
4) Sentimental: The great performance at 3rd in the 1978 post-season, helping the Yanks win their 2nd title in a row. Good enough for me: 



So, yes, I've changed my mind. Nettles should be in the Hall. I wonder if this means I should take another look at the other 5 Yankee fan favorite near-misses. I hope not; this one was exhausting, and I'm getting too old for this...