OCTOBER 2018 MONTHLY NEWSLETTER…
DO ME’S & TEQUILA’S INVESTMENT THOUGHTS:We will let this article do our talking for us:
11-03-18:
www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/midterm-elections-your-complete-guide-to-what-the-vote-means-for-your-money.html The midterm elections Tuesday have huge stakes not only for the future of health care, taxes and immigration, but also for the U.S. economy and investors.
Polls and forecasters suggest Democrats have a good chance of taking control of the House, while Republicans are favored to keep a slim majority in the Senate. But deviations from the expected outcome could have massive implications for investors.
Experts consider the GOP holding control of both chambers the second most likely outcome, followed by a Democratic sweep of Congress. It would be virtually impossible for Democrats to win the Senate without also gaining control of the House.
Each of those results would lead Congress to pursue different policy initiatives — and potentially block any progress toward those goals. Here we break down the likelihood of each scenario playing out, as well as what they mean for the overall market and individual stocks.
Scenario 1: Democrats take House, GOP keeps Senate
•Overall stock market: Modestly bullish
•Winners: Drug stocks, defense stocks
Top forecasters consider Democrats flipping the House and Republicans retaining the Senate the most likely outcome. Projections from data journalism site FiveThirtyEight give Democrats about an 85 percent chance of taking House control by flipping at least 23 seats, and the GOP about the same chance of holding the Senate.
It would lead to a divided Congress, likely with a somewhat narrow majority in both chambers. That may lead to more gridlock than bipartisan cooperation.
While a divided government would make it hard for policy initiatives to move forward, stocks usually do well when there is a stalemate in Washington.
"Historically stocks have thrived in gridlock," said Joseph Song, U.S. economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "Under a Republican president, a split Congress has been the best outcome, yielding 12 percent average annual returns for the S&P 500."
Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note the market has been expecting this scenario and clarity on this front will be bullish.
"Equity investors have been expecting a split Congress," she said, noting few believe "a sweep by either party is probable."
The potential for impeachment: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi — the favorite to become speaker in a Democratic House — and other Democratic leaders have so far sworn off talk of impeaching President Donald Trump in order to avoid stoking fury in the Republican base.
But if their investigations into the administration or special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia probe reveal new information, Democrats could pursue it more aggressively.
Even the higher possibility of a Trump impeachment could spark more market volatility.
"If impeachment proceedings are considered, as they might be today, this would represent a macro 'shock,'" Song said. "The market has generally recovered much of the initial sell-off from historical shocks, in many cases due to central bank policy responses. In today's case, one key risk under potential impeachment would be that of reversing tax reform, which has contributed double digit earnings growth to S&P 500 companies."
Still, even if the House impeaches Trump, a GOP-controlled Senate likely will not vote to remove him from office.
The war over health care: On the policy front, Democrats and Republicans may struggle to find common ground. Both parties, including Trump, have stressed the need for an infrastructure overhaul.
But since Trump became president, lawmakers have struggled to reach a consensus on exactly what an infrastructure plan would look like and how it would be funded. The situation may not change with split control.
On health care, Democrats want to shore up the Affordable Care Act to curb rising premiums — and some want to take even more action to expand the government's role in health care.
They may not find common ground with Senate Republicans. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said the GOP could move again to repeal Obamacare if it gains enough Senate seats.
Impact on Big Pharma: While Trump recently unveiled a proposal intended to cut Medicare drug prices, he has shied away from his campaign promise to allow Medicare to negotiate directly with drug companies. Democrats also support that proposal and expressed dismay when Trump appeared to abandon it.
Investors have already priced in a lack of meaningful drug-price reduction legislation being passed, according to David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. The S&P 500 health care sector has climbed more than 7 percent this year and is one of the best performers of 2018.
"The performance of Pharma stocks has tracked the prediction market likelihood of a Democratic victory in the House, suggesting investors believe a divided Congress would reduce the likelihood of major regulatory changes regarding drug pricing," Kostin said.
Some stocks that could benefit from this scenario are Celgene, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Amgen. Celgene and Regeneron are down for the year, while Amgen is up more than 10 percent for 2018. Kostin included them in Goldman's Government Exposure basket, which is made up of companies with at least 20 percent revenue exposure to government spending.
Gains for defense: With Trump and the GOP fixated on boosting defense spending, funding for the Pentagon would also likely go up again with divided control of government. Democratsjust agreed to a Defense Department budget increase for fiscal year 2019.
This could give defense stocks a boost after the election. The iShares U.S. Aerospace and Defense ET is up more than 4 percent this year, outperforming the S&P 500.
Scenario 2: GOP keeps both, but narrower House majority
•Overall stock market: Very bullish
•Winners: Tax cut beneficiaries, refiners, consumer discretionary
While Democrats have the inside track to gaining control of the House, Republicans could keep a majority if only a handful of toss-up races break their way. The GOP has a small — but still realistic — chance of holding the House. The political data website FiveThirtyEight pegs it at about 15 percent.
While the chance of Republicans holding both chambers is slimmer than the prospect of Democrats winning the House, the outcome would likely have bigger implications for economic policy.
The return of tax cuts and Obamacare repeal: Unified GOP control would inject more life into the Republican push to repeal and replace Obamacare. Aside from McConnell, Vice President Mike Pence has also said the party could try again to overhaul the health care law if the elections go well.
Republican control of Congress also could affect tax policy — particularly if the GOP can expand its Senate majority past the current 51-49 seat edge.
In September, the Housepassed three bills known collectively as "tax reform 2.0." McConnell has said the Senate would take up the plans — the most notable of which would make the individual tax cuts passed last year permanent — if he sees support for them.
Trump also recentlyfloated an additional 10 percent tax cut for middle-income Americans. The proposal came a couple weeks before the midterms and appeared to catch many Republicans and even White House officials off guard.
While it is unclear now whether such a plan could pass even in a GOP-controlled Congress, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady, R-Texas, said he wanted to work toward drafting a tax bill if his party holds control of Congress. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch, R-Utah,called it "highly unlikely" that such a bill would pass this year in the current Congress.
A boon for refiners and retailers: Still, Republicans fending off the Democrats' so-called Blue Wave would be the best outcome for stocks, at least for a moment.
"In the short term, U.S. equity markets could perhaps benefit from renewed hopes on taxes and deregulation," said Johannes Mueller, head of macro research at DWS. "In the longer term, the risk of the U.S. economy overheating would increase."
Trump signed a bill late last year that slashed the federal corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent. This has contributed to double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500. Expectations of lower corporate taxes also boosted stock prices all throughout 2017, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 19.4 percent and 25.1 percent, respectively.
RBC's Calvasina said a Republican sweep would benefit refiners. The VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF is up only 2.5 percent this year and has fallen more than 8 percent in the past six months. She also said shares of Exelon, a nuclear power company, could benefit from a Republican sweep.
Goldman's Kostin, meanwhile, says companies with higher taxes would get a boost if Republicans hold a majority in both chambers as their taxes would go lower. Lower taxes would also benefit consumer discretionary shares — which include retailers like Amazon — according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, as consumer spending gets a lift.
The immigration factor: One policy area will still challenge Trump even if Republicans keep control of the House: immigration. Democrats are virtually guaranteed to cut into the GOP's majority even if they fail to take control of the chamber.
The more moderate members of the House Republican caucus — at least some of whom would have to hold their seats for the GOP to defend its majority — do not support the president's immigration priorities. With a smaller Republican majority, passing a GOP-led immigration overhaul would still likely prove daunting.
Scenario 3: Democrats take the House and Senate
•Overall stock market: Bearish
•Winners: Industrials, materials
•Losers: Health care, banks
Democrats face a daunting path to flipping the two net seats needed to take a Senate majority. Democratic senators and independents who caucus with them face re-election in 26 states this year, including five Trump won easily. Republicans only have to defend nine seats.
If Democrats can pull off that feat, a Senate controlled by the party would pursue many of the same policies Pelosi mentioned as House Democrats' priorities: lowering prescription drug prices, beefed-up gun background checks, and legal protections for the young immigrants brought to the U.S. illegally as children.
Good sign for infrastructure: They could also pursue a $1 trillion infrastructure package, expanded broadband access or a $15 per hour federal minimum wage, according to a policy agenda outlined by the Senate Democratic caucus.
"If the Democrats were to win both the House and the Senate, then you're looking at sector-by-sector moves," said James Ragan, director of wealth management at D.A. Davidson.
He likes the industrials sector in this scenario because of the increased possibility of bipartisan agreement on infrastructure spending.
This scenario would also boost the materials sector, according to Merrill Lynch's Song. "In the unlikely event they find a compromise on infrastructure spending, [it] would benefit Industrials and Materials," he said.
Bad news for banks and health care: Policy areas where Trump has aligned with Democratic leaders in the past include infrastructure, prescription drug prices and trade. Still, it is unclear whether they would find common ground in a new Congress.
Under this scenario, the bank and health sectors could suffer. Democrats would likely pursue a tighter regulatory regime for both banks and pharmaceutical companies than the GOP would. For instance, Sen. Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat who would take over the Senate Banking Committee if his party controls the chamber, recently told CNBC he wants more drastic action on regulating financial institutions and cutting drug prices.
"This is where we get risk for a 21st Century Glass-Steagall Act, for bills that limit the size of big banks, for measures that would bar credit bureaus from collecting consumer data unless a consumer consents and for legislation that expands the powers of the CFPB," Cowen analysts said in a note.
On health care, BofAML says a Democratic sweep would hurt these stocks as it brings more scrutiny on drug pricing. "Dems could be positive for facilities/mixed for [managed care organizations], but a single payer agenda would be negative across the board," they said.
Sticking to protectionism: No matter how the election goes, Trump will lean into more trade protectionism, said Chris Krueger, a managing director at Cowen. He expects Trump to announce tariffs on an additional $267 billion in Chinese goods after the midterms, shortly before previously implemented duties on $200 billion in imports rise to 25 percent at the start of 2019.
He said "it is hard to envision the trade narrative improving after the midterms."
Either the Blue Wave rolls with the House (and maybe Senate) going to the Democrats, or the Red Wave holds and Trump is empowered. If it is the earlier (our base case), we expect Trump to blame the electoral loss on Republicans who pleaded to delay auto tariffs and engage in more talks to prevent tariffs.
If the Red Wave keeps the Congress Republican, Trump will be free to embrace his inner protectionist without any real constraints.
INVESTMENT ARTICLES:--10-05-18:
finance.yahoo.com/news/square-pushes-consumer-lending-installment-135910392.html More Problems & Competition for American Banks = One of so many reasons why WE no longer own ANY American Banks…
--AND 10-23-18:
www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/banks-golden-deposits-are-heading-out-the-door/ar-BBOKbUC?li=BBnbfcN&ocid=U147DHP AGAIN, Just ONE of so many reasons why WE DO NOT own any American Banks = Banks' Golden Deposits Are Heading Out the Door…
After nearly three years of rate increases from the Federal Reserve, customers are pulling billions of dollars out of accounts that don’t earn interest and putting their money into higher-yielding alternatives.
That will crimp banks’ ability to grow profits going forward.
The four largest U.S. banks—JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc.—reported a combined 5% drop in U.S. deposits that earn no interest in the third quarter compared with a year ago.
Customers withdrew more than $30 billion from U.S. bank accounts that don’t earn interest over the year that ended June 30, the first such annual decline in more than a decade, according to Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data.
These deposits largely consist of business and consumer checking accounts and are considered particularly valuable because banks can use these no-cost deposits to make loans. As short-term interest rates rise, they become even more lucrative.
Get news and analysis on politics, policy, national security and more, delivered right to your inbox
Although the Fed started raising short-term rates in December 2015, banks have been able to boost earnings by charging higher rates on loans while still paying depositors nearly nothing.
But after eight incremental Fed increases, some customers are moving their money to capture higher yields elsewhere, threatening future gains in bank profits.
Deposits that earn no interest are “the crown jewel of the bank funding base,” said Allen Tischler, a senior vice president at Moody’s Investors Service. “You start losing that and you end up not being able to benefit from future rate increases.”
Before the financial crisis, noninterest bearing deposits made up a much smaller portion of money at banks. In 2007, the Fed started cutting interest rates in an effort to combat mounting economic problems. The central bank left them near zero for seven years in an unprecedented move.
For many individual depositors, rates were so low for so long on money-market and savings accounts across the industry that they opted to keep their money in checking accounts that earned nothing at all.
Noninterest deposits also became more attractive to corporate customers because the government offered unlimited insurance for many of these in the years after the crisis.
Another incentive for corporate customers: They often earn credits to cover fees on other bank products when they put money in noninterest accounts.
With rates so low, those credits were often worth more than they would have earned in an interest-bearing account.
--AND MORE BANKS: 10-24-18:
www.thestreet.com/markets/bond-losses-grow-for-jpmorgan-and-us-banks-as-interest-rates-rise-14756139 MORE reasons WHY WE do NOT own American Bank Stocks…
Bond Losses Keep Climbing for JPMorgan, U.S. Banks as Rates Rise
Rising U.S. interest rates have eroded the value of hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds and loans, raising doubts about banks' valuations…
As U.S. interest rates march higher, paper losses are swelling on the combined $1.2 trillion of bonds held by banking giants JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM - Get Report) , Bank of America Corp. (BAC - Get Report) , Citigroup Inc. (C - Get Report) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC - Get Report) .
In the first 10 days of October alone, all banks in the U.S. suffered about $8 billion of paper losses on their bond holdings, a Federal Reserve report last week showed. A large proportion of that likely came at expense of the biggest four U.S. firms, since they account for about 40% of all banking assets in the country.
After the most recent bruising, the U.S. banks are now sitting on a combined $50.4 billion of losses on their bond holdings, the Federal Reserve data show -- the most since the aftermath of the financial crisis in July 2009.
The amount has increased sevenfold since the start of the year, though under the vagaries of accounting rules, the paper losses are "unrealized" -- meaning that even though a savvy investor would consider the money gone, executives can avoid recognizing the losses in net income unless the assets are actually sold.
While bank executives and most Wall Street analysts have been arguing for years that financial firms would benefit from higher interest rates in the form of fatter loan payments, the surging losses on bond holdings show that the trend can be a double-edged sword.
And indeed, as banks reported their third-quarter earnings earlier this quarter, executives touted their higher interest income, and analysts cheered.
Yet there was little mention of the damage from surging interest rates, which came as bond-market investors became increasingly nervous about Federal Reserve rate increases, the potential for overheating inflation and the U.S. government's $21-trillion-and-growing debt.
Since the end of the third quarter, JPMorgan shares have fallen by 1%, Bank of America has slid 2.2%, Citgroup has lost 1.7% and Wells Fargo has slipped by 1.9%.
One reason the bond losses have attracted less attention is that the current accounting rules allow banks to exclude them from headline earnings and instead report them in an obscure line item called "accumulated other comprehensive income," which also includes a grab-bag of other items like foreign-currency hedging gains and adjustments related to pension benefits.
On a combined basis, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup reported a combined $5.4 billion drop in the amount to a negative $62.8 billion, based on an analysis by TheStreet. The negative value serves as a reminder that the losses are unrealized; were banks to sell the assets before interest rates rebounded, similar to the way a savvy trader might cut bait, they would have to recognize the losses in earnings.
As the Federal Reserve pushes overnight interest rates higher, and as U.S. Treasury yields increase, those losses are poised to swell, possibly leading to drastic cuts in banks' valuation. It's simple bond math: bond prices fall when interest rates rise.
Banks are stuck with their giant bond portfolios, typically in the hundreds of billions of dollars, because regulators require them to hold big piles of U.S. Treasury notes and other assets that can be quickly liquidated for cash in the event of a deposit run, steep collateral calls or a panic that prompts big trading customers to rapidly shift their accounts elsewhere.
These "liquidity" requirements were stiffened in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, after the entire banking system nearly collapsed. The firms survived only thanks to bailouts from the U.S. Treasury Department and hundreds of billions of dollars more of secret emergency funds from the Federal Reserve.
On a combined basis, all U.S. banks recorded roughly $10 billion of the paper losses on bond holdings during the second quarter, based on the Federal Reserve data, as 10-year U.S. Treasury yields climbed by about 0.2 percentage point to 3.05%.
The roughly $8 billion of losses this month through Oct. 10 came as 10-year Treasury yields rose by another 0.17 percentage points to 3.22%.
--10-26-18:
seekingalpha.com/article/4214811-economy-heading-towards-recession-cramers-mad-money-10-25-18 "We're talking about a slowdown that reverses much of the economy's recent growth and causes rounds and rounds of layoffs. Maybe our gross domestic product decelerates.
Maybe it goes from 4% to 1-2%, thanks to the lack of demand for autos, housing, construction and so many other industries — plastics, paper. That could easily be in the cards," said Cramer.
The Chinese are not interested in negotiating and have many ways to fight back. Business of companies operating in China is slowing down as well.
The market is nothing like heading into a recession, but a slowdown is definitely possible as demand for autos and housing is down. If this continues, the estimates for companies will come down and that will lead to a selloff.
"It's more like 2006, or at least a much healthier version of 2006 when it comes to balance sheets, where the crash still can be averted if our leaders know what they're doing. Let's hope the president and the Federal Reserve do a better job this time around," concluded Cramer.
Losers of the trade war
Are the tariffs working? Who is losing in the trade war? If Nucor's (NYSE:NUE) earnings were to be seen, the tariffs don't seem to be helping. The tariffs on steel were one of the first, and Nucor told investors that it will be good for business.
As full effects of tariffs have set in, it is clear "the tariffs aren't helping the steel industry; in fact, they may be hurting the steel industry. The steel stocks have been slaughtered since the tariffs went into effect," said Cramer.
The management said this on the conference call, "Earnings in the fourth quarter of 2018 are expected to decrease across all three operating segments compared to the third quarter of 2018," said Cramer. This shows that tariffs are not doing what they were supposed to.
The tariffs have now reduced the demand for steel and have added barriers to global trade thanks to the trade war. The price increases in steel are being felt by companies and consumers alike.
Cramer said he got it wrong about Nucor as the effects of tariffs turned out to be counter-intuitive.
The other problem of tariffs is that they have a direct impact on inflation and the Fed will keep raising rates to tame it.
"The bottom line is that even the supposed winners from tariffs aren't winning here.
And as much as I like Nucor, this is simply the wrong time in the business cycle to own a steelmaker. Even if these stocks have bottomed, I think the steel sector is simply too risky to touch for this moment," concluded Cramer.
--10-27-18:
www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/kevin-oleary-heres-what-to-do-when-the-stock-market-crashes/ar-BBOX5Tl?li=BBnbfcL&ocid=U147DHP --10-27-18:
www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-worlds-fastest-growing-economy-is-facing-a-cash-crunch/ar-BBOUPOe?li=BBnbfcL&ocid=U147DHP --10-23-18:
seekingalpha.com/article/4212839-abbvie-inc-great-dividend-growth-stock-sale?ifp=0 WE own ABBV & buying more at these prices…
--10-18-18 BRILLIANT MOVE:
www.msn.com/en-us/foodanddrink/restaurantsandnews/starbucks-opens-breathtaking-eco-friendly-store-made-of-shipping-containers/ar-BBOcnDf?li=BBnb7Kz Remember when shipping containers were used solely for storage or transportation? We don't either.
Over the years, we've seen an increasing number of tiny homes and businesses made from shipping containers. For instance, in Phoenix, Arizona, a recently opened shipping container tiny mall called The Churchill is comprised of restaurants, bars and shops.
And back in 2005, Keetwonen was built in Amsterdam. It's the largest complex of buildings built from containers in the world.
Countless breathtaking homes made from shipping containers have sprouted up across the country too.
So it comes as no surprise that in Asia-Pacific, Starbucks, which has a 30-year history of sustainability, would open up its first store built from recycled shipping containers.
The new Starbucks store in Taiwan is has a drive-thru and is made with 29 recycled shipping containers. It’s over 3,400 square feet, two stories tall and will be located in Hualien Bay Mall.
According to Starbucks’ press release, Japanese architect Kengo Kuma was inspired by two things: the foliage of coffee trees and the traditional Chinese bucket arch. It’s also his first time using shipping containers for his designs.
The interior of the store is just as stunning as the exterior too.
“The stacking of the shipping containers created a much taller space and provides natural sunlight throughout the various skylights found throughout the structure,” the press release states.
Inside, customers will find a brightly colored wall mural. It’s a tribute to the aboriginal Amis people of Hualien City, Taiwan. The space also boasts views of a nearby mountain range.
This isn’t the first Starbucks store made of shipping containers, however. Starbucks has opened 45 shipping container stores in the U.S. alone.
The drive-thru store in Tukwila, Washington, was made using four shipping containers. Northglenn, Colorado, is also home to a shipping container store.
These shipping container stores allow Starbucks to minimize the environmental footprint generally associated with new buildings.
--10-20-18 A VERY IMPORTANT READ:
www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/opinion-the-us-housing-recovery-is-built-on-quicksand/ar-BBOuUoc?li=BBnbfcN --10-20-18:
seekingalpha.com/article/4212795-cisco-pot-makes-another-key-purchase?ifp=0 WE own CGC and buying more, slowly.
--10-18-18:
www.cnbc.com/2018/10/17/beyond-meat-vegan-food-company-taps-investment-banks-for-ipo.html Beyond Meat has hired investment banks for an initial public offering, people familiar with the matter tell CNBC.
The plant-based food company has tapped J.P Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse to help lead the IPO, said the people, who asked not to be named because the talks are private. It could not be immediately determined what valuation Beyond Meat will seek in its IPO.
Beyond Meat did not respond to multiple requests for comment. J.P. Morgan, Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs declined to comment.
The IPO will be the first public stock offering for one of the slew of new companies that make vegetarian meat products that also appeal to carnivores.
Brands like Impossible Foods and Modern Meadow have taken advantage of the increasing public awareness of the potential health risks and environmental concerns around meat consumption.
Unlike previous vegetarian iterations, they've created products that closely mimic the taste and texture of real meat.
The National Institutes of Health published a report in 2012 that said regular red meat consumption could shorten consumers' lifespan. It suggested that eaters "might help improve their health by substituting other healthy protein sources for some of the red meat they eat.
Nearly 40 percent of Americans are trying to eat more plant-based foods, according to a Nielsen Homescan survey.
The nearly $30 billion processed meat industry last year grew by 2 percent, while the the $1.4 billion meat alternatives industry grew by 22 percent, according to data service Euromonitor.
The U.S. Cattlemen's Association, however, has taken issue with vegetarian companies calling their products meat. The group filed a petition with the U.S. Department of Agriculture in February requesting official definitions for the terms "beef" and "meat."
Beyond Meat has sold 25 million of its "Beyond Burgers" since 2016, according to the company. Restaurants, including TGI Friday's, sell it on its menu. White Castle sells the Impossible Burger, which Eater magazine called "one of the country's best fast-food burgers, period" in April.
The Los Angeles-based Beyond Meat was founded in 2009 by CEO Ethan Brown. It sells its products in more than 32,000 grocery stores, restaurants and other outlets across the U.S. Whole Foods, Kroger and Target all sell Beyond Meat items.
It has attracted an array of high-profile investors, including Bill Gates, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jack & Suzy Welch, Kleiner Perkins and Tyson Foods, the company said last year.
--10-18-18:
seekingalpha.com/article/4212246-nio-valid-alternative-tesla?ifp=0 WE just opened a Position in NIO.
--10-18-18:
us.cnn.com/2018/10/17/health/life-expectancy-forecasts-study-intl/index.html WHY ONE MUST FOLLOW THE YOUTH—THE OLD ONES ARE DYING FASTER THAN NORMAL…
(CNN) — Spain will overtake Japan's long-held position at the top of the world's life expectancy table by 2040, while the United States is set to take a big fall in rankings, new research finds.
People in Spain will live for 85.8 years on average, marginally edging out expected lifespans in Japan (85.7), Singapore (85.4) and Switzerland (85.2).
The United States will take the biggest drop in ranking of all high-income countries, falling from 43rd in 2016 to 64th by 2040, with an average life expectancy of 79.8.
Americans will live only 1.1 years longer on average in 2040 compared to 2016, well below the average global rise of 4.4 years over that same period.
"Whether we see significant progress or stagnation depends on how well or poorly health systems address key health drivers," said Kyle Foreman, director of data science at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and lead author of the study.
"The future of the world's health is not pre-ordained, and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories," said Forman.
The findings add to a study last month which found that adhering to a Mediterranean diet can prolong people's lives.
Spain is one of several European countries to offer tax-funded healthcare, with their healthcare system ranked as the seventh best in the world by the World Health Organization.
Neighboring Portugal was the biggest riser in the top 20, forecasted to add 3.6 years to its average life expectancy and rising from 23rd to fifth. Italy moved up one spot from seventh to sixth.
The study, published in the journal Lancet on Tuesday, analyzed data from the 2016 Global Burden of Diseases project, to generate predictions from 2017 to 2040.
The impacts of diseases such as diabetes, HIV/AIDS and cancers, as well as risk factors including diet and smoking rates were taken into account by researchers at the IHME.
The factors which caused the most premature mortalities were high blood pressure, high body mass index, high blood sugar, tobacco use and alcohol use, the researchers said.
According to the new research, British people's average lifespan will be 83.3 years (an increase of 2.5 years), Germans' will be 83.2 (up by 2.3 years) and an average Australian will live until age 84.1, a rise of 1.6 years which keeps them in the overall top ten.
Syria is forecast to see the largest rise globally, adding more than 10 years to its average lifespan (to 78.6 years) and climbing from 137th to 80th, assuming its devastating civil war comes to an end.
The top ten: Based on life expectancy forecast for 2040:
1.Spain (85.8 years)
2.Japan (85.7 years)
3.Singapore (85.4 years)
4.Switzerland (85.2 years)
5.Portugal (84.5 years)
6.Italy (84.5 years)
7.Israel (84.4 years)
8.France (84.3 years)
9.Luxembourg (84.1 years)
10.Australia (84.1 years)US decline
The United States will take the biggest drop in ranking of all high-income countries based on the new study predictions and it currently has the lowest life expectancy among high-income countries.
Life expectancy in the US has dropped in each of the past two years, according to annual reports by the National Center for Health Statistics, representing the first multi-year drop since 1962 and 1963.
An increase in drug-related deaths is believed to represent one factor in the stalling figures, with accidental drug overdoses causing 63,600 deaths in 2016.
Furthermore, obesity in adults is at its highest rate ever in the country, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.
Nearly four in every 10 adults and 18.5% of children in the US are obese, according to their research, while further research in February found a sharp increase in obesity rates in American children between the ages of 2 and 5.
Inequalities to continue
Lesotho, with a predicted life expectancy of 57.3 years, will slump below the Central African Republic to become the county with the lowest lifespan by 2040 among the 195 countries and territories analyzed, the study says.
And while the 18 African countries at the bottom of the rankings are expected to see lifespan rises of between 6.4 and 9.5 years, inequalities between the best and worst-performing nations will still be present.
"Inequalities will continue to be large," said IHME Director Christopher Murray. "In a substantial number of countries, too many people will continue earning relatively low incomes, remain poorly educated, and die prematurely.
But nations could make faster progress by helping people tackle the major risks, especially smoking and poor diet."
The researchers forecast "better" and "worse" case scenarios as well as an overall estimate, with Lesotho's worst-case life expectancy sitting at 45.3 years.
--10-04-18:
www.msn.com/en-us/money/retirement/claiming-social-security-at-70-makes-perfect-sense-in-these-3-scenarios/ar-BBNUQ1o?li=BBnbfcN --10-09-18 A MUST READ:
www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/mr-money-mustache-says-suze-orman-has-it-all-wrong/ar-BBO0dxn?li=BBnbfcN --10-10-18:
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/how-the-world-s-biggest-ev-market-delivered-a-lithium-superpower With a ruined 13th Century castle, the Irish town of Carlow is an unlikely staging post in the super-charged rise of a key player in China’s push to dominate the global electric-vehicle revolution.
Ganfeng Lithium Co. sent a team to the town -- a 90-minute drive southwest of Dublin -- in 2013, shuttling between prospective lithium deposits dotted through the verdant countryside. It was part of their company’s first foray outside China amid a drive to boost production of
With projects and partnerships now spanning South America to Australia, Ganfeng is aiming to use proceeds from a share sale in Hong Kong this week to continue a growth spree that’s forecast to make it the industry’s second-largest producer from this year.
“They understood so many years back -- in the early 2000s -- that lithium would be driving all of the green energy revolution,” said Kirill Klip, a former executive with Ganfeng’s first overseas partner, International Lithium Corp., who joined the working party in Ireland.
“It’s a very hands-on approach, literally -- they were working with our geologists turning over rocks, studying all the lithium boulders,” said Klip, now executive chairman of TNR Gold Corp.
Since that Irish expedition, Ganfeng’s share of refined lithium output has jumped from about 6 percent in 2013 to an estimated 11 percent this year, according to Roskill Information Services Ltd. It accounts for about a quarter of battery-grade lithium hydroxide, the material that’s now most sought after by automakers, the researcher’s data shows.
--10-09-18:
www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-10-08/the-next-financial-crisis-is-staring-us-in-the-face Speaking of retirement, Charlie Ellis of Greenwich Associates and former member of Vanguard Group’s board of directors, discussed the U.S.’s looming retirement crisis, noting “84 percent of U.S. mutual funds underperform their self-selected benchmark over any 10-year period.”
Even for those pensions that are adequately funded, the combination of high costs and underperformance are like termites eating away at the structure of a house. “We do not have nearly enough indexing,” he said. “Not even close.”
Ellis has been pushing to raise the retirement age from 65, a number he said is a historical accident. Given the financial realities of longer lifespans, 70 is much more realistic retirement age.
On the same panel, Salomon Brothers’ Henry Kaufmann (aka Dr. Doom), now 91, made the observation that despite deregulation being a major factor in the crisis, it took less than a decade for many to forget. “A financial market deregulated is like a zoo without bars,” he said.
As memories of the crisis fade as the economy recovers, we find the seeds of the next crisis are already being planted. They are the exact same issues of debt and mismanaging risk and not understanding our own limitations. Failing to learn from our prior experiences, we seem doomed to repeat them. We only have ourselves to blame.
--10-09-18:
eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.seekingalpha.com%2Farticle%2F4210400%2Ftrack%3Ftype%3Dclick%26mailingid%3D20181009%26messageid%3Dstocks_and_sectors%26databaseid%3D%26serial%3Dstocks_and_sectorsO20181009.3c8f4ea66e0475a935602f8f909b122c.1539086855%26emailid%3D833080%26userid%3D833080%26extra%3D%26%26%263000%26%26%26https%3A%2F%2Fseekingalpha.com%2Faccount%2Femail_auth%3Fauth_param%3Dpdho%3A1drp6j9%3A1b374573834281a64030a6fdd83da007%26ref%3D%252Farticle%252F4210400-alibaba-price-keeps-dropping-keep-buying%253Fsource%253Demail_stocks_and_sectors_top_articles_1_1%2526ifp%253D0&data=02%7C01%7C%7C4784643d65d141284f8108d62de0bc12%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636746840582066842&sdata=d1ubbP00iEWG0Is%2Fjl7Fkr%2F01h1WiilnZG4NYAW4dJg%3D&reserved=0 WE own BABA and buying more on these Dips…
•Alibaba stock has been punished since the beginning of the summer, and this is an opportunity for long-term investors.
•Net profits have taken a hit due to short-term investments but sales are still increasing exponentially.
•The valuation is on the cheap side, but how cheap depends on the preference of the individual investor.
• Looking for more? I update all of my investing ideas and strategies to members of Corporate China. Start your free trial today »
Alibaba (BABA) is a long-term favorite of mine, and has been for a while now. So far this year the stock has been getting pushed further and further down, which in my eyes is creating a larger opportunity to buy at a discount.
YTD BABA is down ~16%. However, the stock had a nice run from late-April up until mid-June, when BABA reached its all-time high of $210. Since reaching this point, the stock has been plummeting back down to its current position of $154.
--AND MORE BABA 10-12-18:
seekingalpha.com/article/4211085-alibaba-fallen-strong-buy?ifp=0 --10-12-18:
seekingalpha.com/article/4211270-feds-macro-approach-economy-incorrect-cramers-mad-money-10-11-18 The selloff continued on Thursday, and it might not be done. There are two approaches to see the economy - top-bottom approach or macro approach, and the bottom-top approach or micro approach.
The Fed is following the macro approach with the belief that Trump's tax cuts, deregulation and near-full employment have made the economy red-hot and they have to use interest rates to cool it down.
"Based on that, our new Fed chief, Jerome Powell, has concluded that business is so strong that without a problem it can handle a series of lockstep rate hikes well into 2019," said Cramer.
Taking the bottom-up approach by talking to CEOs, Cramer clearly sees the issues brewing, and the economy might not be as strong as the numbers show.
Auto industry players like PPG Industries (NYSE:PPG) and Trinseo (NYSE:TSE) suggest that there is a slowdown in sales. "Housing is either pausing or down for the count.
We know this because it's what Lennar (NYSE:LEN), the largest homebuilder in America, told us. Lennar has its pulse on every market," Cramer noted.
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) has suggested softness in semiconductors, and packaging materials are also seeing a dip. When package materials are either stagnant or dropping in price, it indicates a slowdown in shipping, an important barometer for the economy. Rising oil and steel prices are squeezing margins as they raise input costs across industries.
"When you consider all of these industries that have been slowing, you start to see some patterns," said Cramer. The Fed is looking at what happened last month, and Cramer is worried about what comes next.
Trump called the Fed crazy for raising rates. "I agree with President Trump that the Fed needs to tighten less aggressively, even as he probably shouldn't have said those nasty things in public because he's making it harder, not easier, for Jerome Powell to give him what he wants," Cramer opined.
"I don't think it's gone crazy at all. I think it's gone lazy. It's a shame," he concluded. READ MORE…
--10-14-18: BRILLIANT:
www.cnbc.com/2018/10/12/roadie-app-is-turning-average-drivers-into-makeshift-delivery-people.html The next time you drive to work, you could be making money before even clocking in — just by dropping something off that was already on your way.
That's the premise behind Roadie, a new app that's crowdsourcing package delivery. The Atlanta-based company launched in 2015, currently has more than 90,000 drivers on the platform, and is backed by investors like Google Chairman Eric Schmidt's Tomorrow Ventures, the UPS Strategic Enterprise Fund and even rapper Ludacris, to name a few.
"It's essentially people already on the road heading in the right direction," Roadie founder Marc Gorlin told CNBC's "On the Money" in an interview. "There's 250 million cars on the road that's almost a natural resource of delivery, if you just give people a chance to use it."
Roadie helps make those connections. To become a driver, you need a vehicle, a valid driver's license, and will be subject to a motor vehicle and background check. Roadie drivers can expect to earn anywhere from $8 up to $650 per job, depending on the size of the package and the delivery distance.
As for senders, Roadie's founder says using the app is "as easy as ordering a pizza."
Senders choose a size, for example "fits in a shoebox" or "fits in the front seat," enter where it needs to go and Roadie determines the price. The sender can review it and then post what Roadie calls a "gig."
Roadie makes its money by taking an approximate 20 percent cut of each gig.
And to think Roadie came about because of a box of broken tile.
Gorlin was doing a renovation project on his condo, and found out the tile he ordered for his bathroom arrived broken. But a new shipment wouldn't arrive until the following week.
The tile he needed was less than two hours away by car, and he started to think that surely someone was in a car right now heading in his direction, and wouldn't mind taking the box of tile.
The company is not only working with individual senders, but with companies like Home Depot, Macy's, and Delta, just to name a few.
--10-15-18:
www.cnbc.com/2018/10/11/here-are-5-things-sears-got-wrong-that-sped-its-fall.html AND:
www.fool.com/investing/2018/10/15/sears-bankruptcy-how-it-got-here-and-what-happens.aspx --10-15-18 IMPORTANT READ:
www.investopedia.com/news/market-bear-hussman-says-stocks-could-lose-20-trillion/?partner=YahooSA&yptr=yahoo --10-11-18 IMPORTANT:
www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/a-rare-and-worrisome-thing-happened-during-wednesday%e2%80%99s-stock-market-slaughter-bonds-fell-too/ar-BBOdom5?li=BBnb7Kz --10-12-18:
www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/mortgages-fast-approaching-5-percent-a-fresh-blow-to-housing-market/ar-BBOeBHg?li=BBnbfcN --10-12-18:
www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/empty-shelves-poor-customer-service-speed-sears-demise/ar-BBOhoLQ?li=BBnbfcN Why the Demise of Sears…
--10-09-18:
www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/thousands-of-southerners-planted-trees-for-retirement-it-didnt-work/ar-BBO9q35?li=BBnb7Kz --10-09-18:
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/lvmh-shows-that-china-s-luxury-shoppers-aren-t-finished-yet?srnd=premium WE own LVMUY and slowly buying more on Dips = Almost at our Share Allocation.
--10-09-18:
www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-10-09/-trumponomics-takes-a-heavy-toll-on-world?srnd=premium --10-17-18:
www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/drug-giant-pfizer-offers-early-retirement-ahead-of-layoffs/ar-BBOvDXi?li=BBnbfcN SMART MOVE BY PFE…Yes, WE own PFE and buying more slowly.
--10-17-18 GREAT ARTICLE
seekingalpha.com/article/4211941-botz-investment-automation-revolution?ifp=0 WE own BOTZ & buying more. Currently at a GREAT Price.
--10-17-18:
seekingalpha.com/article/4212102-market-rallies-fed-absent-cramers-mad-money-10-16-18 WE own DPZ and buying more…
Allison said he is happy with 10% revenue growth and 6.3% same-store sales growth in the U.S. Their franchise model is growing and they have closed only 7 locations this year but opened many more.
He also commented on competition saying, "It's a really fragmented category, as you know. We're the market share leader in pizza, but we still only sell about one out of every six pizzas in the U.S.
So we're staying focused on our strategy and our execution and not really on the short-term ups and downs of any one particular competitor.
If we stay focused on the things that we've been doing, then we're going to continue to take share from competitors small and large across the industry."
They continue to invest in technology and AI to improve their ordering system and deliver Pizza at non-traditional locations. Be it automated ordering assistants, autonomous delivery vehicles or hot spots, they are investing to engage with customers.
***-10-24-18:
www.huffpost.com/entry/american-dream-home-ownership_n_5b2c5736e4b00295f15ae32a Before Karyn Chylewski and her husband got married, they spent several adventurous years together traveling and sharing new experiences. Once the Gen-Xers tied the knot, buying a house seemed like the obvious next step.
“We took a swing at the old American Dream,” she said. “It was super exciting at first … it was 2005, and there was such a buzz in the air around real estate.”
So the Chylewskis put their savings toward a down payment on a townhome in the suburbs of Chicago.
The Dream Becomes A Nightmare
Unfortunately, Chylewski’s husband lost his job in the wake of the 2008 recession. The job market in Illinois was looking bleak, so they were forced to look out of state for work.
And in a fortunate turn of events, he was offered a position in California. The only problem? The townhouse was anchoring them in place.
The home had lost half its value. At that point, Chylewski’s husband was facing the grim reality that he might not be able to take that job because they couldn’t sell the house for what they needed. “I felt handcuffed,” said Chylewski.
Eventually, they were able to rid themselves of the property in a short sale, which meant they lost thousands of dollars and their credit took a hit.
“We’re not the two and a half kids, white picket fence type of people,” said Chylewski. “But we kind of got sucked into it at that time … it turned into a horrible nightmare.”
Bucking The Trend
The Chylewskis’ story was all too common during the Great Recession. Americans had been fed the idea that home ownership was the only way to truly make it, and some of them ended up losing their life savings.
“The dream of home ownership was something that came after World War II, when everyone came back and they built all these houses,” explained Brian Face, a fee-only financial planner and owner of Face2Face Financial Planning.
Homes came to represent personal success and security, an ideal Face said real estate and mortgage agents perpetuated.
“It’s good for the economy to buy houses, but that doesn’t mean it’s actually good for the person that buys it,” Face said.
Some millennials, whose formative years took place during the Great Recession, are questioning that ideal.
Javier Gutierrez, a 26-year-old renter in Austin, Texas, and a blogger at Dreamer Money, graduated from college with $15,000 in student loans. His wife also had a $19,000 car loan.
“The last thing we wanted to do was to become more indebted,” he said.
“We decided to strictly focus on paying off our debt, and renting really helped us out,” Gutierrez said.
And they’re not the only ones. According to a survey by the National Association of Realtors, a whopping 83 percent of millennials ages 22-35 who have delayed home ownership said they did so because of burdensome student loans, which have reached an unprecedented $1.5 trillion collectively.
Further, a study by the Pew Research Center that examined Census Bureau housing data found that today, more U.S. households are renting than at any point in the last 50 years.
Clearly, the world has changed. But young adults aren’t just renting because they can’t buy ― they’re choosing to rent because it affords them better personal and financial opportunities.
Why Renting Often Makes More Sense
There are no taxes, interest or maintenance costs.
When comparing renting versus buying, it’s important to look at the whole picture, said Face. You have to consider not only the mortgage payment, but the added costs of property taxes, home insurance, HOA fees and ongoing maintenance that would otherwise be covered by your landlord.
“Personally, I just had $2,800 in damage to my roof,” said Face. “They told me I might need a new roof in a couple of years. Well, that’s about $15,000. How many people who are 30 years old can pay $15,000?”
It’s easier to pay off debt.
For renters who are saddled with student loans and other types of debt, it doesn’t make sense to tack on a mortgage, even if they can afford it.
Gutierrez credits renting with saving him those additional home costs that he put toward aggressively paying down debt instead. “We paid off my student loans in about 17 months,” he said. “Five months later, the car was paid off.”
Renting doesn’t tie you down.
According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, younger baby boomers (born 1957-1965) held an average of 11.9 jobs between ages 18 and 50.
There’s evidence millennials don’t job-hop more than Gen Xers did when they were the same age, but a 2016 Gallup report found that 60 percent of millennials were open to a different job opportunity ― 15 percentage points more than other generational cohorts.
“I am in awe of [millennials’] mobility and flexibility,” said Amy Irvine, a certified financial planner and owner of Irvine Wealth Planning Strategies. “And home ownership doesn’t allow for that,” she said.
For instance, if you live in New York and have the opportunity to take a job in Seattle that pays 20 percent more, owning a home could be a roadblock.
Plus, more employers are hiring remote workers, giving employees the ability to work from anywhere in the world. In fact, 43 percent of Americans work remotely at least some of the time, according to a Gallup report.
“They’re hopping around, living in different states just to explore ― and you just can’t do that with home ownership,” Irvine said.
The stock market sometimes can offer better returns than homeownership.
A longstanding belief is that your home is an investment because it increases in value over time. But what if, rather than making payments toward equity in your home, you put that money in the stock market?
“We typically see values of houses increasing at 2 to 3 percent [per year], on average,” said Irvine. “If you average out what just an S&P stock fund equates to over a 10 or 15 year period, you’ve got almost double that in returns.”
Irvine noted that you do have to pay taxes for capital gains on those investments, but it can still turn out to be more lucrative.
When renting, your assets stay liquid.
Another problem with tying up your wealth in a piece of property is that you can’t access the money if you need it right away.
For instance, said Irvine, what do you do if you lose your job? With a mortgage, you can’t cut costs by simply relocating to a cheaper apartment.
“That’s the thing about real estate,” said Face. “It’s as liquid as there is someone to buy it. You could probably sell it tomorrow, but it wouldn’t be for a reasonable price.”
There are fewer tax incentives to buy these days.
“Most people aren’t going to get a deduction for their mortgage interest anymore,” said Face.
That’s because the latest tax reform bill raised the standard deduction from $6,350 to $12,000 for single filers and from $12,700 to $24,000 for married couples filing jointly.
You’d only take a deduction on your mortgage interest if the total of your itemized deductions is more than your standard deduction, he explained.
So if you’re married, it’s going to be tough to claim over $24,000 in itemizations unless you live in a high-value real estate market. Even then, the new tax bill lowered the ceiling on the mortgage interest deduction.
That means you can only deduct interest on up to $750,000 in mortgage debt rather than on $1,000,000. The bill also capped property taxes at $10,000.
Our values have changed.
Financial considerations aside, younger Americans are simply living different lives. Just as millennials are less likely to work for the same company for 40 years and retire with a pension, they’re not buying homes like past generations. And that’s OK.
“Our generation is more about experiences,” said Face, who is a millennial himself. Some millennials would rather have the freedom of renting than a piece of property they can barely afford.
The bottom line is you have to give up something in order to be a homeowner, Face said, whether that’s traveling or saving money in a retirement account. Some young adults today are choosing not to make that sacrifice in the name of homeownership.
Should Owning Be Off The Table?
As with everything in personal finance, there’s no one-size-fits-all answer to the question of whether renting or buying is better. Just be sure that whichever you choose, it’s for the right reasons.
And instead of believing you somehow failed because you don’t own a home, Face recommended thinking about it in a different way. “You have other priorities that are more important to you,” he said. “Don’t worry about what everybody else thinks.”
When it comes to homeownership, remember, “It’s not a golden ticket to living happily ever after,” said Chylewski.
--AND ***10-25-18:
www.cnbc.com/2018/10/25/the-homeownership-rate-is-falling-among-millennials-heres-why.html Homeownership in America is not as common as it once was — especially for today's young people.
That's the main takeaway from a new investigation into generational housing trends by the Stanford Center on Longevity.
Around 63 percent of Americans owned a house in 2016 — the lowest rate in half a century. Nearly 70 percent had owned a house by the end of 2005, the peak in subprime lending.
The researchers found homeownership declining most steeply among people under the age of 30 when compared with other generations. "They're not able to hit the mark at the same age as their parents," said Tamara Sims, a research scientist at Stanford.
Why the delay? People often want to put down roots once they have a family. Indeed, the likelihood of owning a home by the age of 30 swells by nearly 30 percentage points for those already married and with children.
But younger people today are not in a rush to wed and reproduce.
In 1960, the average age women and men first married was in their early 20s. Today, the median age for a first marriage is closer to 30.
Meanwhile, the share of married households with children, aged 18 to 34, dropped to 25 percent in 2015, from 37 percent in 1990, according to the Urban Institute, a progressive think tank in Washington, D.C.
The growth in student debt is another factor explaining the decline in homeownership among the young. Average debt at graduation is currently around $30,000, up from an inflation-adjusted $16,000 in the early 1990s.
Those who are still repaying their student loans at 30 are 32 percentage points less likely to own a house than those who never borrowed for their education, the researchers at Stanford calculated.
As a result of purchasing property later in life, Sims said, millennials may enter old age with less financial security.
"Homeownership is one of the touchstones of being prepared for retirement," she said. "Buying a home at age 50 or 60 isn't going to do you much good in funding a 30-year retirement."
--10-17-18:
www.architectmagazine.com/practice/survey-millennials-rank-homeownership-above-all-else_s?utm_source=newsletter&utm_content=Press%20Release&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AN_101718%20(1)&he=
A new survey from Bank of America finds that 23- to 40-year-olds are placing homeownership above nearly all else, with 72% of millennials saying owning a home is a top priority, second only to being able to retire (80%), and far outranking marriage (50%) and having children (44%).
Millennials also tend to equate homeownership with personal (53%) and financial (45%) success. Prospective millennial buyers also associate the purchase of a home with being mature (47%), acting like an adult (47%), and feeling independent (36%).
“Younger generations tell us that owning a home has become a milestone that defines their success, and it’s promising to see them aspiring to homeownership,” said D. Steve Boland, head of Consumer Lending at Bank of America.
The latest Bank of America Homebuyer Insights Report explores the attitudes, preferences and behaviors of the modern homebuyer. For the first time, the survey also took a closer look at current renters who plan to someday own a home.
The age-old question – to own or to rent – still looms for many. Current renters are torn, with 49% believing renting long-term will be more expensive than buying a home.
The other half of renters say renting will be just as or less expensive than owning. Yet, 69% believe their rent will continue to rise every year or every other year.
Furthermore, renters acknowledge that finances remain one of the top barriers to homeownership, with nearly half (44%) feeling they don’t have enough money for a down payment. 23% say they cannot afford the home they want.
Top renter misconceptions include:
• 49% believe that 20% down is required to buy a home.
• 43% believe they must pay private mortgage insurance if they don’t put 20% down.
• Nearly one in four believe they need to have a “perfect” credit score to be considered for a mortgage.
“Interestingly, we see renters rethinking the long-term impact of renting vs. owning. They say renting will be just as or less expensive, but at the same time acknowledge their rental costs will continue to go up over time,” said Boland.
Those ready to leave renting behind aren’t going into homebuying blindly; they’re thinking through who to buy with, when to buy and where to buy.
While 57% of all first-time buyers plan to buy with a spouse or partner, others are increasingly venturing out on their own, with 37% saying they plan to purchase their first home solo.
Regardless of who they are buying with, first-time buyers are ready to act soon. Nearly two in five plan to buy in the next two years, and 60% of those soon-to-be buyers are already saving for a down payment.
Location is also a big part of the plan. 90% of first-time buyers would rather pay more for their preferred location than be in a less desirable location with lower home prices (10%). And 45% are looking to stay within their current neighborhood, city, county or township/school district, while just one in five is planning to buy out of state.
--10-02-18:
www.cnbc.com/2018/10/01/growing-fish-lab-save-oceans-overfishing.html Lab-grown fish may hit your dinner plate sooner than you think.
"At first it was really hard to generate investor interest in this type of company," Finless Foods CEO Mike Selden told CNBC in an interview. "(But) there's been a wild rush of companies in the last few months."
A couple years ago, there were no companies focused on lab-grown seafood. Now a handful have cropped up, including Finless Foods, Blue Nalu, Wild Type and Seafuture.
Their founders hope fish grown in a lab can help them break into the more than $120 billion seafood market, and make it more sustainable in the process.
"This technology allows us to meet growing demand (for seafood) without putting extra pressure on ocean ecosystems," Seafuture Co-founder Darren Henry said.
Engineering fish tissue represents a new frontier for scientists.
"There's been a good five-plus years of science and publications around the meat category that give people much more of a starting point than on the seafood side.
So seafood is much more challenging because there isn't the history," said Lou Cooperhouse, CEO of Blue Nalu, which raised $4.5 million in August.
Cultured seafood has a chance of hitting the market first, since the texture of fish is less complex to replicate than land-based meat. That factor has made cultured seafood appealing to investors.
"I think the seafood approach will come to fruition first," Draper Associates Founder Tim Draper told CNBC in an e-mail. "Fish are less complex than chickens or cows. I suspect their meat will be easier to manufacture."
Growing seafood in an artificial medium also means not being limited to recreating what already exists. Scientists might be able to create new fish tissue combinations and new flavor profiles, like combining tuna and salmon meat.
"This is an opportunity to imagine new things," Wild Type Co-Founder Justin Kolbeck said. "Or even get really crazy and really out there into science fiction a little bit. What about coming up with the kind of things you see in some futuristic movies for example?"
--10-17-18:
www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/america-is-drowning-in-milk-nobody-wants/ar-BBOuQba?li=BBnb7Kz America’s dairy farmers face a growing list of challenges: The Trump administration’s trade wars have coincided with an extended period of already low milk prices.
The strong dollar is driving down exports and consolidation has led to farm closures all across the country.
Most darkly, the long decline in American consumption of fluid milk, the dairy product that brings farmers the highest earnings, shows no sign of slowing.
The key ratio of income-to-feed costs reveals that dairy farmers have very little margin left these days, said Bill Brooks, an economist at INTL FCStone. Feed such as alfalfa and hay are more expensive than last year, as are labor and energy expenses.
With so little room to maneuver, even the smallest cutbacks can have a big effect. When Chobani closed its New York plant over the week of July 4, around the same time a Kraft plant in nearby Walton, New York did the same thing, it made the financial pain of its suppliers that much more acute.
“It was a tough deal for a lot of farmers,” said Richard A. Ball, commissioner of New York’s Department of Agriculture and Markets, emphasizing however that the global market forces share more of the blame for their plight.
For its part, Chobani (the name is derived from the Turkish word for shepherd) said it has gone “above and beyond” to mitigate the effects of the closing. It modified its plant so that it could keep milk separators running during the closure, and over the course of the year buys extra volume to make up for down periods.
Moreover, the company said in a statement, its foundation has put millions of dollars into programs benefiting dairy communities.
Even so, Dairy Farmers of America, the biggest dairy cooperative, said reductions in operating hours and scheduled plant shutdowns during the July 4 holiday exacerbated the milk glut, and led them to dump some raw product on farms.
The amount of milk dumped by farmers in the northeastern U.S. reached almost 145 million pounds through July, including 23.6 million pounds that month alone.
Dairy cooperatives will likely be forced to heavily discount milk prices in the coming months as a result, going below the current futures price for benchmark Class III milk, which goes into making cheese, and is currently under $16 per 100 pounds—a price that has farmers treading water, said Dave Kurzawski, a Chicago-based broker at INTL FCStone.
“The farmers, they don’t get a break,” he said. “We probably had a surplus of milk in this country for too long—we’re seeing that unwind itself.” And what can’t be sold—even at a discount—gets dumped.
In recent years, supplies have grown faster than manufacturing capacity, said Leon Berthiaume, chief executive of St. Alban’s Cooperative Creamery Inc. in Vermont. Discounts of $4 per 100 pounds wouldn’t be surprising for distressed milk, he said.
“We employ many tactics to find a home for our members’ milk, such as additional sales, drying, donating the milk or moving the milk to other areas where we can find demand,” said Nichole Wenderlich Owens, a spokesperson for Dairy Farmers of America.
“After exhausting all options, if an imbalance still exists, raw milk may be disposed.”
WE SOLD THE FOLLOWING STOCKS:NVS
WE ADDED THE FOLLOWING STOCK TO OUR PORTFOLIOS:NIO
IMPORTANT—PLEASE READ: “The above is for your information only. We are not in any way recommending these stocks for you to buy/sell. If you decide to, it is your responsibility to do your own research, due diligence and/or seek the advice of a Financial Planner/Broker.
You need to set your own invest goals, portfolio & diversification goals according to your age, lifestyle, income, etc. when it comes to selecting stocks/funds.
Remember, investing is a risk, so do so at your own risk; you need to put the time in to do your own research.
Our thoughts/opinions are for informational and educational purposes only. And, should not be construed to constitute investment advice.
Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security.
What is good for Do Me & Tequila might not be good for you. So be responsible, (to yourself), for your investment decisions or lack of such.
If any of what we say makes you uncomfortable, then do not read/listen to our thoughts and opinions.
Neither, Tequila or I, are compensated in any manner by the company stocks we mention in our investment emails. Some of the time, we own stocks we mention in our investment email; however, other times we do not own any.
I hope you all do realize that Tequila is a parrot (?)...even more of a reason, to do your own research & make your own decisions.”--“"The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."
-Baron Rothschild
--"The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble . . . We want to buy them when they're on the operating table."
-Warren Buffet
--"Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful."
-Warren Buffett
