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Post by anthonyd46 on Jul 25, 2019 18:12:03 GMT -5
What planet did you actually come from?... Pluto. The math is pretty basic. If we go 3-5 against boston we would be 69-40. If we went 27-26 the rest of the season we would end up 96-66 (obviously we won't play that poorly we are doing worse case). Boston would be 61-50. To tie us they would then need to go 35-16 (.686) the rest of the season.
We aren't going to be 27-26 or worse. Boston is not going to be 35-16 or better (no team is and especially Boston who is .544 to date). If we go 3-5 the division is over. Its basic probability 
The Blue Jays weren't going to win 15 games in a row or whatever it was (14 of 15) in 2015 either... or go 40-18 to end the season from the trade deadline when they had a 53-51 record at the time. While the Yankees went 29-31 when they had a 58-44 record. |
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Post by greatfatness on Jul 25, 2019 18:27:21 GMT -5
Another shitty first inning for Yankees starters
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Post by anthonyd46 on Jul 25, 2019 18:27:22 GMT -5
Freaking bums 3-0.
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 18:27:42 GMT -5
If you want to bet a hundred dollars on it Anthony I will. I never mind taking money from people.
If we win 3 games against Boston the division is over.
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 18:28:24 GMT -5
Tanka is the one Yankee starter I thought would pitch well.
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Post by greatfatness on Jul 25, 2019 18:28:43 GMT -5
Stuck with the Sox broadcast tonight and Wreckersley
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Post by greatfatness on Jul 25, 2019 18:29:47 GMT -5
Pluto. The math is pretty basic. If we go 3-5 against boston we would be 69-40. If we went 27-26 the rest of the season we would end up 96-66 (obviously we won't play that poorly we are doing worse case). Boston would be 61-50. To tie us they would then need to go 35-16 (.686) the rest of the season.
We aren't going to be 27-26 or worse. Boston is not going to be 35-16 or better (no team is and especially Boston who is .544 to date). If we go 3-5 the division is over. Its basic probability
The Blue Jays weren't going to win 15 games in a row or whatever it was (14 of 15) in 2015 either... or go 40-18 to end the season from the trade deadline when they had a 53-51 record at the time. While the Yankees went 29-31 when they had a 58-44 record. That makes it sound almost like you've actually seen baseball games before. |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 18:34:00 GMT -5
wow 4 hits and a walk already for tanaka in the first with one out. Not sure where are starters have been the last 5 games.
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 18:34:38 GMT -5
The Blue Jays weren't going to win 15 games in a row or whatever it was (14 of 15) in 2015 either... or go 40-18 to end the season from the trade deadline when they had a 53-51 record at the time. While the Yankees went 29-31 when they had a 58-44 record. That makes it sound almost like you've actually seen baseball games before. It makes it seem like I can do math. |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 18:35:58 GMT -5
Bases loaded one out. Six base runners already in the first with one out.
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Post by greatfatness on Jul 25, 2019 18:41:25 GMT -5
That makes it sound almost like you've actually seen baseball games before. It makes it seem like I can do math. Except that you can't accurately predict future results of independent events based on historical math. You can pretend to do so, but the people who are actually educated in this area and honest about it will readily admit that it isn't predictive. But sure, maybe you can do math. I'm not sure, but I'll take your word for it. |
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Post by inger on Jul 25, 2019 18:41:26 GMT -5
Gee whiz. I was on the phone when the game started and I walk in the room just in time to see runs 4 and 5. Now 6 and 7... I feel shell shocked...
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Post by inger on Jul 25, 2019 18:45:37 GMT -5
That makes it sound almost like you've actually seen baseball games before. It makes it seem like I can do math. No, no, and more no. I’d swear you were born yesterday, Russ. Teams don’t play that way. They go hot and cold. If they didn’t every season they’d just go ahead and play the World Series starting the first of August... So many collapses, so many late charges by teams that have been under performing... No bets, because I don’t do that under any circumstances, it’s just not my thing. It’s way too early to think this race is figured out, man!... |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 18:47:01 GMT -5
It makes it seem like I can do math. Except that you can't accurately predict future results of independent events based on historical math. You can pretend to do so, but the people who are actually educated in this area and honest about it will readily admit that it isn't predictive. But sure, maybe you can do math. I'm not sure, but I'll take your word for it. You can consult statisticians and see whether your or my interpretation of probabilities is agreed on by them. What I am suggesting here would only be controversial on this board. You can, and its done all the time, predict the likelihood of future events from past events. If you could not there would be no statistics or probabilities.
Again I will happily bet 100 dollars with anyone who thinks Boston can win the division if we go 3-5 or better.
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 18:48:28 GMT -5
Tanaka manages to give up, so far, 7 runs in the first inning. Which now makes it 5 games in a row we have given up that many or more in a game. When does it become a pattern rather than a statistical fluke?
I know, small sample size. |
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