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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 18:50:24 GMT -5
Didi is awesome. He doubles after EE strikes out.
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Post by inger on Jul 25, 2019 18:55:40 GMT -5
Except that you can't accurately predict future results of independent events based on historical math. You can pretend to do so, but the people who are actually educated in this area and honest about it will readily admit that it isn't predictive. But sure, maybe you can do math. I'm not sure, but I'll take your word for it. You can consult statisticians and see whether your or my interpretation of probabilities is agreed on by them. What I am suggesting here would only be controversial on this board. You can, and its done all the time, predict the likelihood of future events from past events. If you could not there would be no statistics or probabilities.
Again I will happily bet 100 dollars with anyone who thinks Boston can win the division if we go 3-5 or better.
[ Anyone that would take that bet would be foolish, but that doesn’t mean they’re wrong about the possibility. Therein lies the problem. You are invoking probabilities vs. possibilities. Those are two entirely different animals, Russ. A week later after this supposed 3-5 (which may or may not occur), the Yanks could lose 8 in a row at the same time the Red Sox win eight in a row, and your formula needs to be rewritten. This isn’t math. This is a physical endeavor... |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 18:56:07 GMT -5
We get one back on a torres single. Maybe the MN series will prepare us from coming back.
7-1
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 18:57:31 GMT -5
You can consult statisticians and see whether your or my interpretation of probabilities is agreed on by them. What I am suggesting here would only be controversial on this board. You can, and its done all the time, predict the likelihood of future events from past events. If you could not there would be no statistics or probabilities.
Again I will happily bet 100 dollars with anyone who thinks Boston can win the division if we go 3-5 or better.
[ Anyone that would take that bet would be foolish, but that doesn’t mean they’re wrong about the possibility. Therein lies the problem. You are invoking probabilities vs. possibilities. Those are two entirely different animals, Russ. A week later after this supposed 3-5 (which may or may not occur), the Yanks could lose 8 in a row at the same time the Red Sox win eight in a row, and your formula needs to be rewritten. This isn’t math. This is a physical endeavor... The world could end tomorrow inger. Statisticians deal with what is likely not what is theoretically possible. If we win three games in this series the division is over. |
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Post by greatfatness on Jul 25, 2019 18:58:40 GMT -5
Except that you can't accurately predict future results of independent events based on historical math. You can pretend to do so, but the people who are actually educated in this area and honest about it will readily admit that it isn't predictive. But sure, maybe you can do math. I'm not sure, but I'll take your word for it. You can consult statisticians and see whether your or my interpretation of probabilities is agreed on by them. As much fun as that seems for someone with nothing else to do, I'll pass thanks. |
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Post by anthonyd46 on Jul 25, 2019 18:59:37 GMT -5
An hour for 1.5 innings so far.
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 19:04:43 GMT -5
Higgie strikes out with the bases loaded  |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 19:05:19 GMT -5
Tanaka gave up 4 runs with two outs. Ouch.
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Post by greatfatness on Jul 25, 2019 19:05:26 GMT -5
Need more than 1 run here to get back into it.
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Post by greatfatness on Jul 25, 2019 19:09:58 GMT -5
Great AB by DJ. I don't know if that was statistically probable, and yet it happened. DJ must be bad at math.
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Post by kaybli on Jul 25, 2019 19:10:04 GMT -5
DJLM walks with the bases loaded. Judge still needs to do something here to make it a game.
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Post by kaybli on Jul 25, 2019 19:10:55 GMT -5
That was his pitch and he whiffed.  |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 25, 2019 19:12:19 GMT -5
LMH walks for a run. Need Judge to come up big time.
How the heck did Tanaka give up 4 runs on two outs against the bottom of the order.
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Post by kaybli on Jul 25, 2019 19:13:14 GMT -5
Damn.
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Post by utahyank on Jul 25, 2019 19:13:20 GMT -5
Mama said there would be days like this....
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