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Post by noetsi on Jul 31, 2019 16:54:45 GMT -5
Good to win. Who do we chear for now Boston or Tampa? I don't want Boston in the playoffs at all. Cleveland looks like they have one of the WC spots. Boston is one game behind tampa in the lost column I think and two behind Oakland. If we can beat them 3-4 they would be back more. Of course with all our lineup issues that would not be easy. |
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Post by rizzuto on Jul 31, 2019 16:57:45 GMT -5
I don't want Boston in the playoffs at all. Cleveland looks like they have one of the WC spots. Boston is one game behind tampa in the lost column I think and two behind Oakland. If we can beat them 3-4 they would be back more. Of course with all our lineup issues that would not be easy. Loss column, Russ. |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 31, 2019 16:58:10 GMT -5
Now I get to watch the tampa game and cheer for both teams to lose  Emotionally I always want boston to lose even if that is not logical statistically. |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 31, 2019 16:58:47 GMT -5
Cleveland looks like they have one of the WC spots. Boston is one game behind tampa in the lost column I think and two behind Oakland. If we can beat them 3-4 they would be back more. Of course with all our lineup issues that would not be easy. Loss column, Russ. lol thanks. I am hopeless. |
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Post by rizzuto on Jul 31, 2019 16:59:19 GMT -5
You have stated several times that Boston is not a threat, so you make the call. My view is in the minority here which is why I was asking others. In that case, I would hope they continue to beat each other all the way down the stretch. Yankees will need home field advantage through the playoffs. |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 31, 2019 17:09:46 GMT -5
The advantage of tampa beating boston is that we have more games against the latter I guess. And maybe that will have impact on them going into the series. Horrible time for us to lose all these players.
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Post by inger on Jul 31, 2019 17:29:36 GMT -5
I don't want Boston in the playoffs at all. Cleveland looks like they have one of the WC spots. Boston is one game behind tampa in the lost column I think and two behind Oakland. If we can beat them 3-4 they would be back more. Of course with all our lineup issues that would not be easy. That’s ridiculous, Russ. You’re proclaiming the Yankees incapable of winning the WS, now you're handing Cleveland a wild card spot with over 50 games yet to play. If you were ten years old, I could accept that... |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 31, 2019 19:45:53 GMT -5
I am saying I don't think Boston will catch Cleveland who is a really good team
You and I have this philosophical disagreement. I think that probabilities tell you what is likely to occur. I don't think Boston is going to win 70 percent of their games going forward nor do I think we will be worse than .500 going forward. Both could be wrong. But I would bet on the Yankees if I was a betting man.
At a certain point probabilities become overwhelming.
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Post by noetsi on Jul 31, 2019 19:56:58 GMT -5
Tampa beating boston in the bottom of the 5th 5-2
Think they would be 11 back in the loss column if they lose (boston)
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Post by inger on Jul 31, 2019 21:31:59 GMT -5
I am saying I don't think Boston will catch Cleveland who is a really good team You and I have this philosophical disagreement. I think that probabilities tell you what is likely to occur. I don't think Boston is going to win 70 percent of their games going forward nor do I think we will be worse than .500 going forward. Both could be wrong. But I would bet on the Yankees if I was a betting man. At a certain point probabilities become overwhelming. I fully understand probabilities. What you are failing to understand is that quality of play is an ever-changing variable that is affected by injuries, illnesses, unpredictable slumps and hot streaks. You’re basing everything on the knowledge you gain by a quick look st the standings. If that’s all it took we could all predict the final standings tonight. We can’t. Not where the differences are so small that they can be drastically changed within the next two weeks. If they do change, then in two weeks you have a whole new set of probabilities. In the end, take comfort in the fact that you are wrong. AGAIN... (: |
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Post by noetsi on Jul 31, 2019 21:47:03 GMT -5
I don't think anything that can change is going to make the Yankees worse than .500 the rest of the year or Boston win at a .690 clip. And if if we are .500 Boston has to be about .690 for them to win the division - something that has happened very rarely in the majors ever. If anything we should get better since we have more players returning than Boston.
If I am right the division is wrapped up if we go 2-2 in the next series against Boston. If I am wrong the division is not wrapped up if we go 2-2 in this next series. I am not sure why I would take comfort in being wrong. For once I am the optimist here (I would say the realist) and you are more pessimistic. The biggest danger to us is that we might not go 2-2 in the series.
Tampa up 8-5 after 8.
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Post by inger on Jul 31, 2019 23:11:46 GMT -5
I don't think anything that can change is going to make the Yankees worse than .500 the rest of the year or Boston win at a .690 clip. And if if we are .500 Boston has to be about .690 for them to win the division - something that has happened very rarely in the majors ever. If anything we should get better since we have more players returning than Boston. If I am right the division is wrapped up if we go 2-2 in the next series against Boston. If I am wrong the division is not wrapped up if we go 2-2 in this next series. I am not sure why I would take comfort in being wrong. For once I am the optimist here (I would say the realist) and you are more pessimistic. The biggest danger to us is that we might not go 2-2 in the series. Tampa up 8-5 after 8. [b I hate to tell you this, but it’s not all that unusual for a team to run off a stretch of 35-15, which is .700 baseball. There are plenty of examples if you study baseball history. It’s not always been yeamsvthat have played well the entire season, either. There are also plenty of historic collapses late in the season where teams that appeared to have pennants or divisions clinched. I could look up examples for you, but I think you’d benefit from reading up on some of the wildest pennant races in the history of the sport... Some of the statements you’ve make show that you aren’t aware of, or have forgotten some really interesting ways that seasons have ended. I agree that you can “make book” on these numbers. Tgat’s what odds makers do in Las Vegas every day while they eat their roasted grasshopper pizzas...But people make big bucks when those odds get defied... |
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Post by inger on Jul 31, 2019 23:11:46 GMT -5
I don't think anything that can change is going to make the Yankees worse than .500 the rest of the year or Boston win at a .690 clip. And if if we are .500 Boston has to be about .690 for them to win the division - something that has happened very rarely in the majors ever. If anything we should get better since we have more players returning than Boston. If I am right the division is wrapped up if we go 2-2 in the next series against Boston. If I am wrong the division is not wrapped up if we go 2-2 in this next series. I am not sure why I would take comfort in being wrong. For once I am the optimist here (I would say the realist) and you are more pessimistic. The biggest danger to us is that we might not go 2-2 in the series. Tampa up 8-5 after 8. [b I hate to tell you this, but it’s not all that unusual for a team to run off a stretch of 35-15, which is .700 baseball. There are plenty of examples if you study baseball history. It’s not always been yeamsvthat have played well the entire season, either. There are also plenty of historic collapses late in the season where teams that appeared to have pennants or divisions clinched. I could look up examples for you, but I think you’d benefit from reading up on some of the wildest pennant races in the history of the sport... Some of the statements you’ve make show that you aren’t aware of, or have forgotten some really interesting ways that seasons have ended. I agree that you can “make book” on these numbers. Tgat’s what odds makers do in Las Vegas every day while they eat their roasted grasshopper pizzas...But people make big bucks when those odds get defied... |
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Post by utahyank on Jul 31, 2019 23:52:12 GMT -5
I am saying I don't think Boston will catch Cleveland who is a really good team You and I have this philosophical disagreement. I think that probabilities tell you what is likely to occur. I don't think Boston is going to win 70 percent of their games going forward nor do I think we will be worse than .500 going forward. Both could be wrong. But I would bet on the Yankees if I was a betting man. At a certain point probabilities become overwhelming. You seem to be using a bifurcated argument....are you talking about the probabilities of the RS reaching the playoffs by winning the AL East?....or the probability of the RS reaching the playoffs by winning one of the WC slots?.....you seem to be talking about both at the same time, and the probabilities are quite different and should not be discussed as though they were the same... |
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Post by inger on Jul 31, 2019 23:59:01 GMT -5
Interesting thought about the bifurcated argument. I’ve never heard of a furcated argument, though perhaps that could be an acceptable word for a singular argument. In these days of political correctness I’m wondering if there is a preference to call that a panfurcated argument.
I think Russ gets lost in a galaxy of numbers from having entered data all day every day...Someday he’s going to find a live number in another galaxy and become famous...
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