|
|
Post by chiyankee on Dec 4, 2019 15:01:44 GMT -5
23.6 mil per season for Wheeler, another wow!  |
|
|
|
Post by noetsi on Dec 4, 2019 16:00:13 GMT -5
I am beginning to wonder if we will sign a major starter.
|
|
|
|
Post by pippsheadache on Dec 4, 2019 16:43:55 GMT -5
Events may well prove me wrong, but at least based on what he has accomplished so far, this looks like a big over-pay to me. Going into his age 30 season, Wheeler has a career ERA+ of 100 -- exactly MLB average-- and a WHIP of almost 1.300. I keep hearing about his potential high ceiling, but it's a rare pitcher who gets there past age 30.
Maybe $23 million per year is the new normal for a middle of the rotation pitcher.
|
|
|
|
Post by pippsheadache on Dec 4, 2019 16:55:35 GMT -5
I do like the Hamels deal for the Braves. He pitched very well last year until he came back too soon from his oblique injury. He should be a good veteran presence for them, and the one-year deal limits their liability.
He is a different guy from the young, full of himself phenom he was when he first came up with the Phillies. He's matured and become a good team player.
With CC's retirement, he is now fourth in pitcher WAR among active players. I know it's a counting stat, but that's still pretty good.
|
|
|
|
Post by rizzuto on Dec 4, 2019 17:07:33 GMT -5
Bigfoot and the Complete Game Starting Pitcher.... Who actually believes this stuff?  If you can pitch six mediocre innings, you’re worth over 100,000,000 dollars. |
|
|
|
Post by inger on Dec 4, 2019 17:42:27 GMT -5
I do like the Hamels deal for the Braves. He pitched very well last year until he came back too soon from his oblique injury. He should be a good veteran presence for them, and the one-year deal limits their liability. He is a different guy from the young, full of himself phenom he was when he first came up with the Phillies. He's matured and become a good team player. With CC's retirement, he is now fourth in pitcher WAR among active players. I know it's a counting stat, but that's still pretty good. I agree with this post, as well as the post regarding Wheeler. The first thing I related to in Hamel’s case were the annual deals Pettitte made in NY. Very fair. One year at a time. You decide if you want to pay me, and I’m free to decide when I should quit. There should be more of that in baseball. Wheeler? I don’t quite get it. Massive potential. I do have a bit of a disagreement with the odds of him developing further, but at the same time, I wouldn’t want to pay him for getting better until he IS better. There have probably been more pitchers that developed into special performers after 30 than we realize at first blush. There have also probably been more that we’re past their primes before 27 than we realize, and perhaps fewer than we expect that enjoyed their prime years when expected. Cue the memory bank now... (: |
|
|
|
Post by kaybli on Dec 4, 2019 17:54:10 GMT -5
23.6 mil per season for Wheeler, another wow! [img alt=" " src="//storage.proboards.com/6828121/images/UhLYtfPmGggOgPkFrmgW.gif" class="smile"] Wow, thats a lot for Wheeler. Cole's price just went up.  |
|
|
|
Post by pippsheadache on Dec 4, 2019 18:00:09 GMT -5
Good post, Inger. Not counting relief pitchers (the amazing Hoyt Wilhelm comes to mind first), a few starters I can think of who didn't really hit their stride until after age 30 were the diametrically opposite Randy Johnson and Jamie Moyer. There was Warren Spahn, of course, but World War II had a lot to do with that.
They are out there, for sure, and maybe Wheeler will be one of them, but they are an anomaly.
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Dec 4, 2019 18:16:33 GMT -5
Hilariously enough, 300 game winner Early Wynn was 83-94 before age 30. Dazzy Vance was 0-8 (including 0-3 with the Yankees) before age 31 as he rambled to 197 wins...These are old-time examples of course.
Dwight Gooden and Vida Blue both bursted upon the MLB scene well before the so-called prime years. While they remained excellent pitchers, they didn’t acheive the heights expected of them.
More thoughts to come. At least, if I think of them... (:
|
|
|
|
Post by inger on Dec 4, 2019 18:20:31 GMT -5
Mike Cuellar was 42-41 before joining the Orioles staff at age 32 and rolling to 139 wins in the next seven seasons. Just one win shy of 20 per season in that stretch...
To be fair, Cuellar had pitched well with little support for a couple of years in Houston before he was mercifully traded...
|
|
|
|
Post by pippsheadache on Dec 4, 2019 18:22:26 GMT -5
I should have thought of Wynn, who I very vividly remember, and Vance, who was well before my era. Without looking it up, I am guessing Wynn's career was interrupted by the war, but any way you slice it he was a late bloomer. Good catch.
|
|
|
|
Post by pippsheadache on Dec 4, 2019 18:27:13 GMT -5
Mike Cuellar was 42-41 before joining the Orioles staff at age 32 and rolling to 139 wins in the next seven seasons. Just one win shy of 20 per season in that stretch... To be fair, Cuellar had pitched well with little support for a couple of years in Houston before he was mercifully traded... I loved Cuellar even though I hated those great Oriole teams. Stone Face. I remember a tear rolling down that impassive mug while he was on the mound as Baltimore closed in on the 1970 World Series championship. |
|
|
|
Post by inger on Dec 4, 2019 18:31:17 GMT -5
Taking note of comps in BR for age 29 pitchers closest to Wheeler
Shane Reynolds - won 19 at age 30, but quickly faded
Carlos Carrasco - was turning into an ace when illness struck. He’s 33 now, I think?
Chris Young - later career renaissance at age 34-35 for a couple decent seasons
Hideo Nomo- Didn’t last long, but was pretty decent while he was around.
Of course, there is also lots of flotsam and jetsam on the list, with Wheeler’s closest comp being the frightening spector of one Erik Bedard. One very talented mound of potential that just never could stay healthy...
And no Hall of Famers to be found, for sure.
I’m not pining for Wheeler though, as I feel it was an over pay...
|
|
|
|
Post by pippsheadache on Dec 4, 2019 18:43:45 GMT -5
Taking note of comps in BR for age 29 pitchers closest to Wheeler Shane Reynolds - won 19 at age 30, but quickly faded Carlos Carrasco - was turning into an ace when illness struck. He’s 33 now, I think? Chris Young - later career renaissance at age 34-35 for a couple decent seasons Hideo Nomo- Didn’t last long, but was pretty decent while he was around. Of course, there is also lots of flotsam and jetsam on the list, with Wheeler’s closest comp being the frightening spector of one Erik Bedard. One very talented mound of potential that just never could stay healthy... And no Hall of Famers to be found, for sure. I’m not pining for Wheeler though, as I feel it was an over pay... Shane Reynolds, good name from the not-so-distant past. I wouldn't have thought he was around long enough to amass 114 wins. I love seeing those names pop up. Nomo was for sure a phenomenon for a brief period with his gyro ball. I was living abroad at the height of his celebrity and in that pre-internet age my baseball-loving father used to send me videotapes of some of his games. Good memories. |
|
|
|
Post by inger on Dec 4, 2019 21:35:55 GMT -5
Taking note of comps in BR for age 29 pitchers closest to Wheeler Shane Reynolds - won 19 at age 30, but quickly faded Carlos Carrasco - was turning into an ace when illness struck. He’s 33 now, I think? Chris Young - later career renaissance at age 34-35 for a couple decent seasons Hideo Nomo- Didn’t last long, but was pretty decent while he was around. Of course, there is also lots of flotsam and jetsam on the list, with Wheeler’s closest comp being the frightening spector of one Erik Bedard. One very talented mound of potential that just never could stay healthy... And no Hall of Famers to be found, for sure. I’m not pining for Wheeler though, as I feel it was an over pay... Shane Reynolds, good name from the not-so-distant past. I wouldn't have thought he was around long enough to amass 114 wins. I love seeing those names pop up. Nomo was for sure a phenomenon for a brief period with his gyro ball. I was living abroad at the height of his celebrity and in that pre-internet age my baseball-loving father used to send me videotapes of some of his games. Good memories. Yep. Some good memories. I offer light arguments so I can bring these names out of the closet. It’s just an excuse for nostalgia, really... Statistically, it’s still more than likely that Wheeler will be on a downward cycle. Fangraphs published a report that shows that army thirty, pitchers continue to polish their command, but the velocity begins to slowly erode. Then there is also the increased likelihood of wear and tear injuries. Wheeler’s velo is so good that he may teach an intersection where the velo drop is compensated for by the increased command. He’ll be an interesting watch. The exceptions are part and parcel of what I love about this game. They make the trivia and nostalgia so much more fun... |
|
