OFF SEASON HOT STOVE THREAD

www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html

IF I was CASH -- I would give the FA'S below a very in-depth look-see --wouldn't cost me any current players of Draft Picks.

12. Liam Hendriks – Phillies. Three years, $30MM. Hendriks went from going unclaimed on waivers by 29 teams to making the All-Star team in the span of one year. Now, he’s the best reliever on the free agent market. The Australian righty, 32 in February, boasts a 1.79 ERA, 13.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, and 0.49 HR/9 over 110 1/3 innings since 2019 for the Athletics. He led all MLB relievers in WAR easily over that period, and his 96.4 mile per hour fastball ranks 11th among those with at least 80 innings. Hendriks is fifth in MLB in leverage index during that period, so he’s done all this pitching in the most critical parts of games.

Signed by the Twins out of Australia in 2007 for $170K, Hendriks had a breakout season a decade ago in the minors. At the time, Baseball America said he “pumps four quality pitches for strikes.” Nonetheless, Hendriks struggled as a starter in the Majors for the Twins. Once they decided to move on in 2013, he was claimed off waivers three times in a span of 70 days, landing with Toronto and joining Marcus Stroman in the 2014 Buffalo Bisons’ rotation. He was traded to the Royals that summer, designated for assignment after the season, then traded back to the Blue Jays. After finally finding success out of the Jays’ bullpen in 2015, Hendriks was traded in the offseason to the A’s for Jesse Chavez. After a few years of solid work, Hendriks’ ERA sat at 7.36 through 11 innings for the 2018 A’s, and they designated him for assignment in favor of Edwin Jackson.

From that low point, Hendriks earned his way back onto the A’s 40-man roster and ascended to become not just their best reliever, but one of the best in baseball. The A’s choice not to issue a qualifying offer can only help Hendriks’ market. Prior to Brad Hand and his $10MM salary passing through waivers unclaimed, we would have said Will Smith’s three-year, $40MM contract with the Braves would serve as a target for Hendriks. Now, we’re not so sure he can get there. Still, the Phillies, Angels, Dodgers, White Sox, Astros, Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, and Nationals could be suitors as teams in need of late-inning relief.

16. James McCann – Phillies. Two years, $20MM. After J.T. Realmuto, McCann is the best catcher on the free agent market this winter. The 30-year-old spent four years as the Tigers’ starting catcher, topping out at a 94 wRC+. Facing a potential $3.5MM salary through arbitration, Detroit chose not to tender McCann a contract in November 2018. The White Sox snagged him as a free agent on a $2.5MM salary. Surprisingly, McCann made the All-Star team for the Sox in 2019, posting a 109 wRC+ and prompting the club to tender him a contract (with a $1.9MM raise) afterward despite the club already having Yasmani Grandal in tow. The decision paid off, as McCann posted a stellar 144 wRC+ in 111 plate appearances.

Defensively, McCann has long been known for shutting down the running game. Pitch framing had been a weakness, but McCann found improvement by working with Jerry Narron last offseason and was able to demonstrate 88th percentile framing in his 245 2/3 innings behind the dish this year. Overall, McCann has raised his game enough in his time with the White Sox that a three-year deal might be available to him in free agency. The feeling here is that two is likelier, with the Phillies, Mets, Cardinals, Marlins, Brewers, and Yankees among those who could vie for his services.

17. Andrelton Simmons – Yankees. One year, $12MM. Simmons, 31, carries a reputation as the best defensive shortstop in baseball. In eight-plus seasons with the Braves and Angels, Simmons has won the Gold Glove four times. Looking at 2013-19, Simmons absolutely laps the field in defensive metrics like UZR and DRS not only among shortstops but all players, regardless of position. He’s all over the Statcast Outs Above Average leaderboard for 2017-19. Offensively, Simmons has a high-contact, low-power profile, peaking with a 105 wRC+ from 2017-18. His defense was so valuable that he still ranked second among MLB shortstops in WAR during that period, behind only Francisco Lindor.

Simmons’ durability was strong from 2013-18, during which he averaged 146 games per year. But in May 2019, Simmons suffered a Grade 3 ankle sprain trying to beat out a groundball, and had to be helped off the field. He aggravated the injury in August of that year, and the issue resurfaced this summer. He ended his 2020 season, and most likely his Angels career, a bit early by opting out on September 22nd. Simmons only played 265 1/3 innings in the field this year, but it’s fair to ask whether he can return to his Ozzie Smith-like ways. He posted a negative defensive runs saved mark for the first time in his career, and rated in the 20th percentile in outs above average. While he may receive multiyear offers, Simmons may be best-served to a take a one-year deal in hopes of rebuilding value. Like fellow free agent shortstops Didi Gregorius and Marcus Semien, Simmons was not issued a qualifying offer. He could fit at shortstop for several teams, including the Yankees, Phillies, Reds, Blue Jays, and Indians.

26. Brad Hand – Astros. Two years, $14MM. Hand’s surprising foray into free agency may serve as the canary in the coal mine for a cratering free agent relief market, and perhaps for free agency as a whole. 31 in March, the southpaw reeled off a superb 2020 season with a 2.05 ERA (22nd in MLB), 33.7 K% (18th in MLB), and 4.7 BB% (11th in MLB). Since joining the Padres’ bullpen in an April 2016 waiver claim, Hand has reeled off 320 innings of 2.70 ERA ball, 10th in MLB among those with at least 200 innings. He made three All-Star teams during that time. The Padres traded Hand to the Indians in July 2018, and his success continued.

Hand’s $10MM club option for 2020 seemed like an easy call to exercise – even for the penny-pinching Indians, who could presumably trade the lefty later in the offseason. Instead, the Indians made efforts to trade Hand prior to the option decision coming due, and offers were so poor or non-existent that they placed him on outright waivers in an attempt to simply avoid his $1MM buyout. All 29 other teams still passed on Hand, which suggests they feel free agency (for relievers at the very least) will be a buyer’s market at levels well below years past. One element of teams passing on Hand may be a velocity drop this year, down to 91.4 miles per hour. Another might be a choice not to lock in a $10MM reliever – even a very good one – so early in the offseason. Regardless, it’s difficult to project aggressive bidding on any free agent reliever after perhaps Hendriks.

31. Corey Kluber – Twins. One year, $12MM. Kluber had a Hall of Fame-worthy peak for the 2014-18 Indians, winning a pair of Cy Young awards while also finishing third twice and ninth once. His 30.3 WAR ranked third among all starting pitchers during that time, his 28.5 K% ranked fourth, and his 5.2 BB% ranked sixth. But Kluber, 35 in April, hit a wall in May of 2019 in suffering a non-displaced fracture of his right forearm from a line drive. He was pulled from a rehab start in August of that year due to an oblique strain, knocking him out for the season after only seven starts.

Facing a $17.5MM club option, the Indians traded Kluber to the Rangers in December 2019 for Emmanuel Clase and Delino DeShields. Unfortunately, Kluber’s Rangers debut in July lasted only one inning before he went down for a Grade 2 tear of the teres major muscle in his right shoulder, ending his season. With Kluber having pitched only 36 2/3 innings over the last two seasons, the Rangers declined their $18MM club option for 2021 and haven’t been able to work out a revised contract. Kluber’s free agency is variable depending entirely on his health. According to WEEI’s Rob Bradford, he’s already been cleared for a normal offseason. Kluber would fit well with a contender seeking a potential big-game pitcher, that won’t necessarily rely on him for innings.

33. Charlie Morton – Mets. One year, $8MM. Morton reaches free agency after having his $15MM club option declined by the Rays. The righty, 37 in November, had been a useful starter for the Pirates but experienced a late-career surge upon joining the Astros in 2017. With Houston, Morton’s average fastball velocity climbed up into the 95 mile per hour range, and his strikeout rate spiked. After the Astros chose not to issue a qualifying offer, Morton signed a two-year, $30MM free agent deal with the Rays and continued dealing in 2019. That year, he produced a 3.05 ERA in a career-best 194 2/3 innings, making his second All-Star team and finishing third in the AL Cy Young voting. For pitchers with at least 500 innings from 2017-19, Morton’s 28.7 K% ranked seventh in MLB.

This year, Morton was removed from an August start due to shoulder inflammation and spent several weeks on the IL. Even putting the two limited starts around that injury aside, Morton averaged fewer than five innings per start in 2020. Despite solid peripherals, his ERA landed at 4.74 on the season, owed in part to a .355 BABIP. He made an additional four starts in the playoffs this year, pitching well until the Dodgers got to him in Game 3 of the World Series.