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Post by noetsi on Jun 28, 2021 20:27:48 GMT -5
I don't think we state it in a written document. But if you look back over the last two decades at who we do go after and don't it is clear that team speed, fundamentals, and probably batting average are not important to us. It is not just coincidence I think. I am sure some fast, good hitting players come up in free agency who we could sign.
How many fast, high average players have we signed to free agency, or tried to trade for, in the last two decades. How many home run hitters have we pursued (including those with poor fundamentals, low speed and high strike out totals).
There is a model of who we go after and who we do not.
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Post by chiyankee on Jun 28, 2021 20:38:08 GMT -5
You know who really needs to go? Randy Levine. I can't stand that weasel. I'm not against Cashman being replaced but does anyone trust this clown and Hal to hire the right replacement? |
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Post by chiyankee on Jun 28, 2021 20:44:02 GMT -5
My point is, and of course it is not new and not held in high regard here, is we won't win WS with players who can hit home runs and walk, but do nothing else offensively. Actually hitting HR's and drawing walks is far more important in the post season than the regular season. How do you think the Dodgers won the WS last year? They weren't scraping a bunch of hits together and playing small ball against elite pitching. |
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Post by kaybli on Jun 28, 2021 20:44:03 GMT -5
You know who really needs to go? Randy Levine. I can't stand that weasel. I'm not against Cashman being replaced but does anyone trust this clown and Hal to hire the right replacement? Exactly. |
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Post by noetsi on Jun 28, 2021 21:06:24 GMT -5
My point is, and of course it is not new and not held in high regard here, is we won't win WS with players who can hit home runs and walk, but do nothing else offensively. Actually hitting HR's and drawing walks is far more important in the post season than the regular season. How do you think the Dodgers won the WS last year? They weren't scraping a bunch of hits together and playing small ball against elite pitching. I think we will do as well doing only that as we have in the last 12 years. If we keep doing what we have been doing we will get the same results. |
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Post by noetsi on Jun 28, 2021 21:07:09 GMT -5
I'm not against Cashman being replaced but does anyone trust this clown and Hal to hire the right replacement? Exactly. I agree. I did not think things will improve. I just wish they would |
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Post by rizzuto on Jun 28, 2021 21:40:25 GMT -5
I don't think we state it in a written document. But if you look back over the last two decades at who we do go after and don't it is clear that team speed, fundamentals, and probably batting average are not important to us. It is not just coincidence I think. I am sure some fast, good hitting players come up in free agency who we could sign.Could you name a few?
How many fast, high average players have we signed to free agency, or tried to trade for, in the last two decades. How many home run hitters have we pursued (including those with poor fundamentals, low speed and high strike out totals).Could you name a few?There is a model of who we go after and who we do not. |
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Post by noetsi on Jun 28, 2021 21:47:47 GMT -5
If I had time I would do this. Go back for the last 12 years. Find out how many players who were .290 or higher and came up for free agency. Find out how many the yankees signed.
But I don't have time enough to even watch games.
I think its a reasonable assumption that during the last decade there were players who came up for free agency and were either fleet of foot or had a good batting average. Or players teams wanted to salary dump who were this. How many of those did we pursue?
Our business model is Arod or Stanton. Guys who hit home runs. We did pursue them.
Our new model should be either hit .280 or higher or have above average speed and defense. If they are not one or the other we should not pursue them period.
Right now we have too many large contracts to pursue anyone. But when they finally clear we should follow this model.
But we won't. They care about home runs. Period. And have for decades.
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Post by rizzuto on Jun 28, 2021 22:06:27 GMT -5
If I had time I would do this. Go back for the last 12 years. Find out how many players who were .290 or higher and came up for free agency. Find out how many the yankees signed. But I don't have time enough to even watch games. I think its a reasonable assumption that during the last decade there were players who came up for free agency and were either fleet of foot or had a good batting average. Or players teams wanted to salary dump who were this. How many of those did we pursue? I don’t know. Could you name one?Our business model is Arod or Stanton. Guys who hit home runs. We did pursue them. Our new model should be either hit .280 or higher or have above average speed and defense. If they are not one or the other we should not pursue them period. ARod for his career had a batting average of .295, and he was above average defensively. So, he should have fit into your model?Right now we have too many large contracts to pursue anyone. But when they finally clear we should follow this model. But we won't. They care about home runs. Period. And have for decades. |
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Post by inger on Jun 28, 2021 22:37:52 GMT -5
It’s not what players are when they hit free agency or become available in a trade, it’s what they become that can be the issue. Some players come roaring into MLB and are on the decline by the time they hit 30 years of age. Some start out with struggles and hit their stride after 30 years of age.
It’s not really possible to be accurately predictive of what’s going to happen. There are some things we can predict. We can predict that fast players will slow down. Even that is not always true. We know few players are useful after 40. We expect that someone with an injury history will continue along that path.
The big problem we have is more about an industry-wide problem of long term contracts. A-Rod. Ellsbury. Stanton. Hicks, to a lesser degree because he’s not horribly expensive. Three of those four are guys that might have met the criteria for being .280 hitters in the Noetsi plan. Two were fast, with good defense. Admittedly, 2 of the 4 also had injury histories. None of the four could have reasonably been expected to perform at their top level until the end of their contracts. But, the choice was to sign them, or let them go elsewhere. Do we win in ‘09 without A-Rod? Yet, in another scenario, we only won once. Are we a better team if we pass on A-Rod in the long run?
We let Cano go. He was a dead-ringer for a Noetsi contract. He hit far better than .280, and his 2B defense was very good. We wound up better without him. You can’t put a number out there like .280. In a vacuum, it’s meaningless. What we can do is skip the long term contracts, even for Aaron Judge. Offer high annual values, less years. It can be the Yankee way, or the Highway. Anybody want to guess how fast a 280 pound guy is going to be in 10 years? If he’ll be in the field or a DH? If he’ll be healthy enough to play regularly?
Take a look at the Angels and Pujols. He had some good superficial numbers until about 3 years ago. RBI’s. HR were decent. But his OBP were worse and worse. He was like an infection that ran in the team’s veins until they finally moved on from him.
The Yankees had the same disease with A-Rod, and with Ellsbury. Stanton is doing “pretty good” so far this season as a power hitter. Yet, he’s being paid to be all world. The extra money he gets is stopping us from being able to add other players. Infection. Unless he can hit 40 HR, he’s going to be overpaid every year. And that’s just talking about his offense. He used to be a decent outfielder. That was part of his long term deal, too. Gone. He may still have decent speed, but he’s so fragile he’s excused from running hard so he doesn’t break. Great example for our young players to model themselves for.
I’m sad that we can’t make long term deals anymore. I love the good old-fashioned legacy Yankees. But those guys used to have to earn their keep every year. It was very different…
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Post by noetsi on Jun 28, 2021 23:14:10 GMT -5
I am working through the free agency list over the past decade and I will admit to (at first glance anyhow I have not had the time to dig deeper) there are not a lot of great percentage hitters in the mix. Part of that no doubt is the age. So I agree with Inger above especially since age will often cause a decline in ability. Determining speed from the list I have seen is difficult but given the age factor its likely its not high.
Maybe the solution then, for the problem is the same, is to not get involved in free agency at all and develop (and then keep) our own players.
I think we need faster players who can hit, know the fundamentals of baseball and are decent at defense. It may be that the only way to get those players is internally (which we have not done in a while in part not doubt because we get free agents and lose draft picks).
So I may be wrong in what I said. It may be not that we go after the wrong type of player in free agency, as that we pursue free agents on other teams at all.
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Post by inger on Jun 28, 2021 23:27:03 GMT -5
I took notice of three exceptions, where teams got a great value. In each case, to my surprise, it was pitchers who performed.
The Dodgers have done well with Kershaw. He’s had an injury setback at one point, but his performance is historic.
The Diamondbacks have gotten value out of Greinke, but it must be noted that because they spent huge money on Zack, they couldn’t hold a team together to surround him with.
The same could be said of the Scherzer deal for Washington. While they haven’t collapsed in the style of the Diamondbacks, they are more in the line of the Yankees where large contracts are preventing filling in problem areas.
The Dodgers are struggling a bit this year. They’re playoff bound. Money is like water for them, so Kershaw’s deal is not their issue. It’s injuries. Hmm. I haven’t really investigated it, but are the injured under longer term contracts? I don’t track contracts all that much, but it may be so…
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Post by inger on Jun 28, 2021 23:36:03 GMT -5
I am working through the free agency list over the past decade and I will admit to (at first glance anyhow I have not had the time to dig deeper) there are not a lot of great percentage hitters in the mix. Part of that no doubt is the age. So I agree with Inger above especially since age will often cause a decline in ability. Determining speed from the list I have seen is difficult but given the age factor its likely its not high. Maybe the solution then, for the problem is the same, is to not get involved in free agency at all and develop (and then keep) our own players. I think we need faster players who can hit, know the fundamentals of baseball and are decent at defense. It may be that the only way to get those players is internally (which we have not done in a while in part not doubt because we get free agents and lose draft picks). So I may be wrong in what I said. It may be not that we go after the wrong type of player in free agency, as that we pursue free agents on other teams at all. [ Of course developing your own is indeed the best way to go, but it’s a tricky business. All of a sudden, Deivi Garcia has an era of almost 9.00 in AAA. Maybe he can be turned around. He’s still young. The Yankees wanted him to gain some horizontal movement by adding a slider. I understand that. He’s basically average mph with his fastball, though with good carry, and a good, bit straight up and down curve. His change is average at best. Give him a slider like we saw in the ninth tonight and suddenly he’s a monster again. The best way is to utilize all tools at your disposal. Develop. Trade judiciously and fairly. Use free agency judiciously to fill in holes. Just as OBP was the money ball move thirty years ago, I believe speed, contact and defense to be undervalued at this time, making them the modern day equivalent… BUT YOU STILL NEED ADEQUATE POWER AND OBP SKILLS. It’s a balanced mix that wins. It’s always been that way… |
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Post by noetsi on Jun 29, 2021 21:44:44 GMT -5
I don't think our strategy works well inger. And it is almost exclusively tied to OBP and home runs.
I don't think we are, or have been balanced.
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Post by chiyankee on Jun 29, 2021 21:55:59 GMT -5
I don't think our strategy works well inger. And it is almost exclusively tied to OBP and home runs. I don't think we are, or have been balanced. Teams that win usually have a high OBP and hit a lot of HR's. |
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