Ian Happ scouting report from RAB Thoughts:
Scouting the Trade Market: Ian Happ. The Yankees didn’t need to go hitless for 16 straight innings to remind everyone they could use another bat, but they were nice enough to do it this weekend anyway. Realistically, the outfield is the only place to add offense. The Yankees seem unlikely to change their catching mix in-season, they’re stuck with Josh Donaldson and his contract, and they missed their chance to add an impact shortstop in the offseason (which good shortstops will be available at the deadline anyway?).
So, the outfield it is. Andrew Benintendi is the best available rental and the Royals are already exploring trade possibilities. Given Chicago’s behavior the last 12 months (trade every veteran, even the popular ones) and their record (28-45), the Cubs again figure to be active sellers at the deadline. Catcher Willson Contreras will be a hot commodity. So will outfielder Ian Happ, who was not part of their 2016 World Series team (he debuted in 2017).
“At some point, you get numb to it,” Happ told Patrick Mooney (subs. req’d) this past weekend when asked about the trade rumors. “You get numb to it, and you just have to go do your job every day. I’ve said this before, we’ve all been through a stretch where there’s been rumors. Playing in this market — whether it was the offseason or midseason where that kind of stuff was swirling — you’ve been through it at some point.”
Would Happ make the Yankees better? Well, yes, because Joey Gallo has set the bar very low. But what does Happ bring to the table and what might it cost to get him? Let’s dive in.
Contract status
Happ is not a rental. He will remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player next year. He’s making $6.85M this season, so trade for him at the deadline and you’re absorbing roughly $2.26M in salary and luxury tax obligation. FanGraphs has the luxury tax payroll at $262.2M right now, so even if the Yankees treat the $270M threshold as a hard cap, Happ would fit in nicely. He figures to make something in the $10M to $12M range next year.
Injury history
Pretty much squeaky clean. Happ spent 10 days on the injured list with a rib contusion suffered in an outfield collision last May (video) and that’s it. He’s never been on the injured list otherwise. No red flags at all. Onward.
Defense
Happ was drafted as an infielder and he’s played every position except shortstop and catcher in the big leagues (he even pitched once), though he’s not a super utility type. He’s started only four games on the infield since 2019 and he doesn’t even bounce between outfield spots anymore. Happ is a full-time left fielder now and has indicated he likes having one set position.
“That consistency breeds success, I think,” Happ told Andy Martinez last month. “Then being able to get really, really comfortable in that spot and not worry about all right, what does it look like in center? How do I transition back to left? Do I have to take ground balls? It’s knowing that you’re gonna have one thing to worry about.”
The numbers say Happ is average to a tick above in left field (+9 DRS and -1 OAA since 2019) – “When I looked at the metrics, my first step was really good. My jumps were really good and I would kinda lose a little bit on that efficiency part,” Happ told Martinez – and his arm is terrible. His average top 10% outfield throw since 2019 is 84.4 mph. The MLB average is 88.9 mph.
Having a set position can absolutely help a player offensively, and Happ is having his best season at the plate (more on that in a bit). He’s comfortable in left and is no longer jumping between positions. There’s less on his plate now. The versatility is nice in theory, but I think you have to consider Happ a left fielder who is an emergency option – and an emergency option only – at other positions.
For the Yankees, that means either moving Aaron Hicks back to center and Aaron Judge back to right, or keeping Judge in center and moving Hicks to right. Hicks has not played right field since 2017. He had not played left field since 2017 prior to this year, so he’s shown he can make that transition, but it will be another in-season transition. I don’t think having to move Hicks to right is anywhere close to a dealbreaker for Happ. It’s just a thing that will have to happen.
Baserunning
Average-ish. Happ steals a handful of bases per season but not efficiently (career 69% success rate), and he’s not going to do a lot of first-to-thirds and things like that. The numbers since Opening Day 2021:
FanGraphs baserunning: +0.4 runs
Baseball Prospectus baserunning: +1.0 runs
Extra-base taken rate: 29% (MLB average is 41%)
Home-to-first time: 4.36 seconds (MLB average is 4.47 seconds)
Sprint speed: 27.9 feet per second (MLB average is 27.0 feet per second)
Happ’s not going to kill you on the bases – his extra-base taken rate has gone from 53% to 55% to 44% to 42% to 28% to 30% the last five years, what’s that about? – but he’s not going to add much value either. It is what it is. Happ doesn’t make his money with his legs.
Offense
Happ, 28 in August, is enjoying the best full season of his career. He’s rebounded from last season’s .226/.323/.434 (103 wRC+) effort with a .279/.376/.458 (132 wRC+) line this year, and he’s drastically cut his strikeouts and swings and misses. Happ was consistently a 30% strikeout guy prior to 2022. This year it’s in the teens.
Here are the largest year-to-year strikeout rate declines among the 243 players with at least 400 plate appearances last season and 200 plate appearances this season:
Jackie Bradley Jr.: -10.6% (30.8% to 20.3%)
Ian Happ: -10.0% (29.2% to 19.2%)
Javier Baez: -9.9% (33.6% to 23.8%)
Gio Urshela: -8.5% (24.7% to 16.2%)
Dylan Carlson: -8.4% (24.6% to 16.1%)
Remember when Gio kept popping up on those biggest strikeout rate increase leaderboards last year? Seems he corrected that. Anyway, Happ also has a career best 11.0% swinging strike rate and a career best 84.7% in-zone contact rate. He was a big swing-and-miss guy earlier in his career. Now he’s got a more contact focused approach.
This is relatively new but it did not start this season. Happ has been this hitter since last August, when he alluded to some mechanical adjustments. “There's a couple mechanical things that are kind of falling in place,” he told Jordan Bastian at the time. The numbers:
Happ was an unremarkable corner outfielder who took walks and had some pop, but otherwise was a low batting average swing-and-miss guy. Now he’s a more complete hitter who hits for average and power, and still draws plenty of walks. This version of Happ is much more preferable to the old version. This guy is a tougher out and more productive.
The elephant in the room is Happ is a switch-hitter who has historically been much better against righties. He’s hitting .254/.366/.439 (123 wRC+) against righties this season and that’s right in line with his career 121 wRC+ against righties. Against lefties though:
2022: .352/.407/.519 (159 wRC+)
Career: .247/.323/.399 (93 wRC+)
Happ hasn’t been dreadful against lefties throughout his career, but he’s never been this good. He says last August’s adjustments helped him from the right side of the plate – “Being able to go in there with a little bit of a rhythm and kind of free things up right-handed was huge,” he told Gordon Wittenmyer in April – but I also see a .436 BABIP in 59 plate appearances against lefties and think maybe we should hold off on declaring this a new version of Ian Happ.
There has been legitimate improvement in Happ’s game since last summer. He’s making more contact and striking less than he has at any point in his career, and he’s always been a good exit velocity guy, which the Yankees value. I would bet the farm against .352/.407/.519 being his new true talent level against lefties. There’s some regression coming there, at which point Happ becomes what, a 120 wRC+ hitter overall? 110 wRC+? I’m not sure.
What will it take?
We have a decent blueprint for a trade involving 1.5 years of an above-average outfielder: Gallo. Above-average seems silly now, but Gallo was an All-Star last year. He didn’t crater until putting on pinstripes. The Yankees gave up four good prospects for Gallo but not any of their very best prospects, though the Joely Rodriguez factor complicates things.
The other recent notable 1.5 years of an above-average outfielder trade is Starling Marte to the Marlins in 2020. The Marlins traded 3.5 years of an average big leaguer (random Yankee Caleb Smith) and two of their top 20-30 prospects (Humberto Mejia and Julio Frias) for Marte, though there was a financial component to that trade. The Diamondbacks wanted to dump salary.
It must be noted the Cubs have focused on quality over quantity with their recent trades. A few rebuilding teams are going after depth and trading for three or four good prospects rather than one or two great prospects, like the Rangers with Gallo and the Pirates with Jameson Taillon. The Cubs have not done that. They’ve gone after that one great prospect. Three examples:
Javier Baez to Mets: Traded with a depth MLB arm (Trevor Williams) for outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, the No. 19 pick in the previous year’s draft, and nothing else.
Craig Kimbrel to White Sox: Traded for Nick Madrigal, the No. 4 overall pick three years prior, even though he was out with a season-ending hamstring tear.
Anthony Rizzo to Yankees: Ate Rizzo’s salary to get outfielder Kevin Alcantara, who will finish the year as a top 100 prospect.
The Yankees are more than willing to package three or four second tier prospects in a trade, but one great prospect? When’s the last time they traded one of those? Justus Sheffield for James Paxton? Sheffield was a top 100 prospect but not truly great. Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda might be the last time, and the Yankees never liked Montero as much as they put on publicly.
If the Cubs insist on a top prospect, meaning Anthony Volpe or Jasson Dominguez, then forget it. The Yankees aren’t doing it. I’d argue they should be willing to move those guys for an impact big league player given the season they’re having (foot on the gas, pls), but if you’re trading Volpe or Dominguez, don’t you have to do better than Happ? I mean, no offense, but shop around a bit.
Even as a rental, I prefer Benintendi to Happ because I trust the contact track record (the “this guy suddenly figured out how to make consistent contact” thing makes me a little nervous) and I think the Royals are more likely to settle for a package of expendable second tier prospects. I don’t love either player but I accept they’re likely to be the best available outfield bats at the trade deadline. Either would help the Yankees as a Gallo replacement.
